Dear Ttbn,

«Ukraine is not our problem.»

Ukraine is our front line where we stop China.

Yes, regrettably as you say, Australia is dangerously positioned in relation to China and don't have enough of to even think about defending ourselves - this is why we need, like it or not, to join forces with other free people and stop the common enemy where the front is, rather than leave these few weapons we do have, which on their own are insufficient anyway, idle under our mattress.

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Dear Critic,

«Ukrainian combat capable forces now number under 190K»

Why count only the Ukrainian troops - Europe has many more!

The Americans, yes we can forget them, no point counting their troops, but Europe on its own has millions more and Europe will fight as one to kick the invaders out.

«Once the Ukrainian air defense is completely knocked out the Russians will resume heavy bombing with Tupolev TU-22M3 from high altitude.»

Europe too has fresh air forces!

Stop thinking of Ukraine in isolation: Europe has been attacked and when it gets bad enough (including economically) Europeans will prove as brave as the Ukrainians.

"Vladimir Putin's autocracy has not just wrought havoc
on Ukraine, it has wrecked Russia too. Putin's unjust
and ill conceived war has erased the gains of the last
3 decades."

"The toll on Ukrainians is far greater than on Russians
in material terms, and tragically in lives lost. Ukrainian
bravery in the face of Russian barbarism, however, has made
Ukrainians a nation of heroes, while Russians have been
rendered international pariahs unable to travel abroad
easily and suffering under the heaviest sanctions ever
imposed anywhere in world history."

" The burden of Putin's war on Ukraine will be borne by the
average Russian citizens for decades, if not longer. The
damage done to Russian society, the economy, its military,
its political development, and its international reputation
will far out live Putin."

Here are some of the ways in which Putin has managed to
ruin Russia:

http://journalofdemocracy.org/how-putins-war-in-ukraine-has-ruined-russia/

Thanks AC,

Historic events can be hotly debated for centuries afterwards, so I would think events yet to happen are far less certain.

If Russia have such huge forces ready to overwhelm Ukraine they are keeping it very well hidden from western intelligence. The Russian retreats/troop movements are accepted by both sides. I think the reduction of the front by Russia reflects the vulnerability of advancing armour to Ukrainian weaponry. With a smaller front I suspect the Russian army thought that their artillery could be a substitute for their armour, but their lack of advance suggests that the tactic has not worked so well.

I agree with you that if the Russians had enough missiles, troops and equipment they could knock out the power infrastructure and amass a force away from the Ukrainian troop concentrations. Without power the Ukrainians might not have time to mount an adequate defence.

Even as it is I think the Russian invading force a great threat to Ukraine and hope that western countries will provide the Ukrainians with all the weaponry they can in a timely fashion.

It will be interesting to see what the Ukrainians try next. Many suspect that they may try to divide the front through Melitopol. It could be a good strategy if the Ukrainians can combine the offensive with an attack on the supply line through Crimea.

One more thing AC,

You mention 540,000 troops. That is about 700 battalion tactical groups, which would imply over 70,000 units of mobile hardware, including about 35,000 tanks, apcs and mobile howitzers. There were about 200 BTGs at the start of the invasion. Russia may have lost over 100 BGTs in the war so far. Where did all the extra equipment come from?

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/army-btg.htm

http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-russia-probably-lost-half-main-battle-tanks-ukraine-pentagon-2022-11

Hi Fester,
When I first heard those details about Russian combat strength, it was in a video, featuring Col. Douglas MacGregor, and also on Alexander Mercouris, but as I said when I first mentioned it I'd have to go back and watch videos to find it, which might take many hours.

What I actually did yesterday to dig up those details instead was to google 'Russia 540,000' (troops) and I found that webpage yesterday (also quoting 1000 MLRS, 5000 armoured fighting vehicles inc 1500 tanks etc) that I shared late afternoon yesterday, but it wasn't my original source.
I didn't think any further about what those numbers meant, whether they were all troops headed for the front line or whether some were engineers or logistics, moving weapons for resupply etc.
- FYI, It never said 35k tanks it was 1500 I think.
If I come across the info again, likely by by MacGregor or Mercouris I'll share it with you.

I've just watched a video this morning where survivors of the attack on the Mariupol Drama Theatre are stating it wasn't a Russian airstrike as quoted by western media claiming 'Russian atrocities' it was actually the Ukrainian Armed Forces themselves.
Based on these eyewitness accounts, they set explosives inside the theatre where there was around 2000 men, women, many kids and elderly.

What REALLY Happened At The Mariupol Drama Theatre.
http://youtu.be/gkqRy4lvcnU?t=1676

I do remember a story early in the conflict where Ukrainian armed forces were using a nursing home with disabled people as a firing position.
http://www.voanews.com/a/un-russia-and-ukraine-share-blame-for-nursing-home-attack-/6652481.html
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/ukraine-shares-blame-nursing-home-attack/
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/07/19/zrjy-j19.html

Incidentally this occurred in the days just prior to the events at the drama theatre.

While Russia has been fighting a war against the Ukrainian defenders, they the Ukrainians have always been fighting a war of propaganda.

Even events at Bucha are said to be fabricated.
Whilst many people died from Russian artillery, people found with hands ziptied and bullets in the back of the head in mass graves were not victims of Russian forces, but Ukrainian special units who first went in and went door to door shooting suspected collaborators.

Armchair Critic,

Give it a rest.

You're reputation on the forum is not looking credible.