Hi shadowminister,
It's funny how the story you're selling is signigicantly different to the one I'm hearing, but you have to pay attention to details.
It makes me think about the propaganda war to continue the support of western citizens.

I guess you could say there's 2 wars taking place at the same time.
One on the battlefields in Ukraine, and the other an economic war marked by an energy war taking place in Europe.
In response to that second economic war, Russia is in no particular rush in Ukraine, it's a battle of attrition.
They will choose their battles in a manner that inflicts heavy losses on the Ukrainian defenders whilst limiting their own losses.

Just in the last few days the Russian side has begun to make inroads into southern Bakhmut.
You can find more info here:
http://youtu.be/f7SPIY_7c7I?t=600
And here:
http://tass.com/politics/1555879
(FYI, Artyomovsk is the Russian name for Bakhmut)
They could try to push harder into these areas, but doing so would risk heavy losses, this is why:
http://youtu.be/F89iypG7k8s?t=172
General Wesley Clark on the importance of Bahkmut
http://youtu.be/k2KQBcSzG6I?t=233

"Since you were telling me how well the Russians were doing, they have lost the entire Kharkiv oblast, Kherson city, and the Ukrainians are slowly advancing through Luhansk and are about to take Kermina."

There's more in the details surrounding the losses in Kharkiv and Kherson City.
What happened was that Russians were constrained under the original terms of the SMO (Special Military Operation)
- Troops that had originally signed up under 6mth contracts did not renew their contracts (situation has now changed after mobilisation)
which left the Russian forces spread thin.
The loss of territory in both places was definitely a defeat but they were in fact strategic withdrawls, rather than being overrun by Ukrainian counteroffensives.
- In the case of Kharkiv and Lyman areas it was a bit of a debacle, but in Kherson City, not so much so.
In Kherson City, the Ukrainian attacks failed with heavy casualties but they decided to leave because of a few reasons:
1/ The Antonivskyi Bridge and the rail bridge 1km further upsteam had been destroyed which left them to rely on pontoon bridges and resupply was difficult.
2/ The Ukrainians could potentially destroy the Nova Kharkova dam which would have flooded the entire area upon the Russian forces
3/ They withdrew to reinforce Zaporizhzhia Oblast, specifically Melitopol in order to prevent an offensive by the Ukrainians which sought to push south to the Sea of Azov and cut off the land bridge to Crimea.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/putins-fleeing-troops-bomb-dam-28473186
The Kherson City withdrawl was successful, the Ukrainian attack on Melitopol was defended with heavy Ukrainian losses and is now reinforced, which will make further attempts to take it difficult.

The northern part of Ukraine is more or less frozen, where the souther part is still soft and sludgy, which has prevented any significant progress by either side.
The attacks on Kremennaya and Svatove were defended; again with heavy losses upon the Ukrainians and the Russians have been shelling Lyman.

The recurring missile attacks on Ukrainian electrical infrastructure has slowly been exposing all of their air defense systems (S300, BUK, Iris T, NASAMS, ATACMS etc) and missile storage locations - leading to attacks upon them and their missile defense which is slowly being completely destroyed.
Once the Ukrainian air defense is completely knocked out the Russians will resume heavy bombing with Tupolev TU-22M3 from high altitude.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dW5uPGUsHU
I could tell you the current info regarding Russian military strength after mobilisation but I'd have to dig it up, but I can tell you it's significant.
Ukrainian combat capable forces now number under 190K whilst Russia now has around 540K so I'm told.
Western deliveries of weapons and ammunition is become greatly reduced, their ability to produce them is much less than the rate the Ukrainians are using them, meanwhile Russia is continuing to produce them and has stepped up production, and missile attacks have been at a greater number used.

The Ukraine Arms Drain: Now and in the Future
http://youtu.be/9wZfjd-byNk

"Any dreams of Russia taking Odesa and more of the Donbas are laughable."
- Don't be so sure.
The Russians don't want Odessa destroyed, if they do attempt to take it they will do so last of all, when Ukraine's ability to defend it has been greatly reduced.

With the power grid in Ukraine destroyed, troop movements which rely on electrified rail is becoming difficult. Stranded trains can come under attack. They don't have enough diesel locomotoves and have even pulled old soviet-era steam locomotives out of museums.

In the meantime the situation in Europe is becoming extremely bad.
There are strikes and protests going on in many countries.
EU blackouts inevitable – Austria
http://www.rt.com/news/568998-eu-blackouts-inevitable-energy-crisis/

Whilst they may get through this winter (somewhat doubtful) they have no prospect of getting through it next year without Russian energy.

The EU is in recession with huge inflation, and becoming de-industrialised.
Their will be more jobless people needing support.
This is leading to huge protests, which itself will put further pressure on the leadership of countries.

Russia has largely weathered the sanctions, while citizens in EU member states believe the sanctions have failed and have harmed them more they have harmed Russia.

According to the Brookings Institution -
While it remains difficult to predict the outcome
of the war or the impact that it may have on Putin's
time in the Kremlin, there is little doubt that the
fighting with Ukraine and its ramifications will
leave Russia diminished in significant ways.

Firstly Russia has to contend with a badly damaged military
that will take years to reconstitute.

There will be years of economic stagnation, cut off from
key high tech imports, a worsening situation with regard
to energy exports and future production. Then an alarmed,
alienated and re-arming Europe. Plus a growing political
isolation that will leave Moscow even more dependent on
its relationship with China. Although China is being out-
spoken in its criticism of nations that threaten with
nuclear weapons Russia needs to beware.

Unfortunately Putin still clings to his desire of "regaining"
Ukraine - but the costs of that for Russia mount by the
day.

The Ukrainian Ambassador to Australia is now telling us who should be able to play tennis here. That's what you get when you sob-along with a corrupt European country that has nothing to do with us and hand out military equipment to them that we cannot afford and don't have enough of to even think about defending ourselves.

Australia is dangerously positioned in relation to China, and a very long way from our natural allies. We don't need Russia against us as well.

Ukraine is not our problem.