This is worth a read.
The War in Ukraine Is a Bloodbath. Could It End in 2023?
http://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/the-war-in-ukraine-is-a-bloodbath-could-it-end-in-2023/

Dear Foxy,

I agree. If Ukraine gave up it would be the end of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian war is not only a war for the survival of Ukraine or just Putin's War. It is also a proxy war between the US, NATO and Russia. Most of the casualties in the war are Ukrainians and Russians not Americans or members of NATO. A Russian takeover would mean the end of Ukraine's democracy and the continuation of suffering under occupation. It would also mean the end of suffering under war. Ukraine is suffering, and the Russians fighting in Ukraine are also suffering. There is the danger of a wider war. If Ukraine gave up it would mean the end of Ukraine. It would also mean the end of the proxy war.

If NATO and the US had agreed that Ukraine would have neutral status the war could possibly have been entirely avoided.

I was against the US war in Vietnam. Many who supported the war thought the victory of North Vietnam would mean the country becoming a communist state. They were right, and I was right. The cost of keeping Vietnam from being a communist state was too great. What is the cost of keeping an independent Ukraine?

There are signs of Putin’s Russia unraveling. Dissidents and men who want to avoid military service are leaving. The end of Ukraine does not mean its end forever. Russia may continue to unravel, and Ukraine may regain its freedom without the trauma of war.

Dear Foxy,

National consciousness is powerful. Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have been part of Russia for many years. They all are now independent nations and have the feel of independent nations. Israel has been under foreign occupation for almost two thousand years. As the occupation of Poland did not mean the end of Poland the occupation of Ukraine will mean the end of the Ukraine government but not the end of Ukraine. My late father-in-law was Russian. He hated the Ukrainians who he called Ukies. The war may be one factor keeping Russia together if many other Russians feel the way he did. The end of the war in Ukraine with a Russian victory may hasten the end of Russia. The British victory in WW2 saw the end of that great empire.

Dear David,

As long as my body holds out - I still have dreams of
travel. My wish is to be able to travel to eastern
Europe and walk in the footprints of my ancestors.
I have so many questions that I'd like answered.

Anyhow, thank you for your insights. As always they are
appreciated.

Hi Fester,
I saw that by last night the strike in Makiivka (or Makeyevka) had its own Wikipedia page.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Makiivka_military_quarters_shelling
It was also discussed on a few YouTube channels I watch below:

Russia Drone Strikes, Losses in Makeyevka, Advances in Zaporozhye; Lavrov Hints At Offensive
http://youtu.be/vpgpsEEgu_o

Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 02.01.2023
http://youtu.be/50w7VgXfe6c

Reports differ from both sides about the amount of Russians killed.
Ukraine suggests 400 KIA and up to 300 casualties, where as the Russian Ministry of Defense has stated only 63 KIA.
http://tass.com/defense/1558589

In my opinion this difference illustrates one sides willingness to talk up an event, and an opposing sides willingness to play it down.
All things being equal, the true number is likely somewhere in between.

Also I'd like to bring up the question of legality in Putin's war.
This paper discusses many of the issues, but I also think that just by it's title it has some bias in making some possibly incorrect assumptions about Russian intentions.

Distorting Fundamental Norms of International Law to Resurrect the Soviet Union: The International Law Context of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40802-022-00219-9

My question, or concerns relate to internal and external self determination, specifically in regards to admissions by western aligned leaders (Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande) that the Minsk agreements were never intended to be honoured, and that it was merely a ploy by the West to buy time to build up Ukraines military.

The point I wish to make is that Putin first tried to resolve the issue with internal self-determination, but the Ukrainian military continued to inflict harm of the citizens of Donbass, who initially never wanted any part of the country post Maidan. The Ukrainian government continued to attack and inflict harm upon them (which in my opinion voided any right to rule over them) and which ultimately lead to a situation where the only course of action was external self-determination.

Point being, I think it's fair to say that Putin did take steps to try to avoid the eventual outcome by first pursuing internal self-determination, which was not honoured, and was never intended to be.

Hi AC,

As I said, we are just the peanut gallery and our speculation means little. Russia has form, as does Putin, for staging events to use as justification, and we could argue about such thing forever and resolve nothing. That is why what matters to me are measurable outcomes. Hence, in viewing the claims of Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan of how they were forced into conflict by an international conspiracy, I am more interested in the conflict and its aftermath and ask such questions as "Are they better places today?".

On looking at the Ukraine/Russia war, I think that Russia had problems invading Kyiv by being unable to mobilise. Russia made use of its material advantage in the south, especially with its artillery and ordinance. Ukraine's acquisition of more accurate weapons whittled away the Russian force to the extent that they could no longer support the front line, which I believe is why they lost so much ground in September. It is clear that Ukraine is targeting troop, equipment and ammunition stores effectively. I look on with interest, but I get the impression that the Ukrainian strategy is one of holding the line, targeting supplies, carrying out novel missions as weapon availability permits (e.g. Kerch, Moskva, Engels), and conducting offensives if the Russian forces become sufficiently depleted.