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The Forum > General Discussion > Putin Talks of Negotiation over Ukraine,

Putin Talks of Negotiation over Ukraine,

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Note I'm not saying peace, but its hoped that negotiation would lead to peace.

"Russia is ready to negotiate with all parties involved in the war in Ukraine but Kyiv and its Western backers have refused to engage in talks, President Vladimir Putin said in an interview aired on Sunday (Christmas Day)."

As the killing continues with little end to the war in sight, lets hope, and for those who pray, pray for peace. I'm not judging Russia, and I'm not judging Ukraine or the West on this, but peace should be the absolute paramount objective of all parties in this sickening war.
Posted by Paul1405, Tuesday, 27 December 2022 7:06:19 AM
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Paul is not judging! Or so he says. That's a first. At least he has started a new thread.

But Ukraine? That’s boring even to the most breathless commentators these days. I watched Tucker Carlson (yes, Paul, good old Fox News: a chance to use your favourite terms of abuse) complaining that the American geriatric and confused President was still throwing more of everything at Ukraine and hugging the ex-comedian while his own country was going down the gurgler. At least our own 35% leader is not going overboard on Ukraine, and seems concentrated on the real threat - Communist China - and not Russia, which is no threat to us. It's a pity though, that Ukrainian women are getting swimming lessons in Australia while their menfolk are fighting for their country.
Posted by ttbn, Tuesday, 27 December 2022 10:32:04 AM
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Suppose China invaded and took parts of Australia, so that many Australians were forced to live under Chinese rule, cut off and under random murders, torture, looting and rape, including a million or so that were forcibly taken from their homes and "resettled" in China with documents that forbid them to leave their assigned town/village. Suppose some of these were your relatives.

Would you then agree to negotiate for peace with China?

The paramount objective in this sickening war should be to save the Ukrainian people and families who are trapped on the Russian side. No reason they should lose their homes either.
Posted by Yuyutsu, Tuesday, 27 December 2022 11:11:43 AM
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Hmm, where do I even begin.

Both sides want peace, but peace on their own terms.
Russias want Ukriane to denazify (The attitude taught to kids in school since 2014 that hates Russian speaking people - no different to the stuff Israel and Palestinians teach their kids) and the same attitude that had Ukraine bombing hospitals and schoolyards in Donbass for 8 years.
They had a chance for peace with the Minsk agreements but both Poroshenko and Merkel admitted they were never serious about implementing them, and instead bought time to build up military for more war.
And also demilitarize, i.e not able to join NATO.
- No different than the US expects with the Monroe Doctrine LOOK IT UP.
Since then, since Russia had to commit troops to war, it's not going to give up the territories taken.
It wants full recognition of the 4 territories as Russian, as well as denazify and demilitarise (i.e non NATO status) and if Ukraine doesnt agree, they will destroy whats left of it and take more territory as a buffer zone to protect the 4 territories from more and more long range weapons.
Ukriane wanted to use an innocent party to drive a truck full of fertilizer over the Crimea Bridge, and wanted to keep targetting the power lines of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, and drive a million people in Crimea of waterand blow up the Nordstream pipelines (Britain and M16 involved) so it took off the gloves and targetted Ukraines power infrastructure (also used for military transport) in response.

Why is Ameriaca sending billions upon billions - because overthrowing the country was THEIR project, their investment all to get rid of Putin, so they can chop the country up into weaker more manageable microstates that it controls, and so they can next encircle China.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 27 December 2022 12:36:42 PM
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Yuyutsu,
You're parroting western propaganda.
- yes that is a thing and exists exactly the same as our stupid warmongering side labels everything Russian propaganda.

I took a LIBERAL, ANTI WAR Protester to see the truth in Donbass, and THIS Happened!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OysQ7yQl_o
Watch this, it proves that what you are saying is lies, skip to 38 mins and see how those ' forcibly taken from their homes and 'resettled' with documents that forbid them to leave their assigned town/village' are ACTUALLY TREATED.

Everything you read is lies, but you're pro-Jew so would automatically be on the Ukrainian side, with all it's bias points of view.
4 Jews in charge of the Ukrainian nation. Zelensky, Shmyhal, Reznikov, Yermak. Pres, PM, Def, Staff.
http://youtu.be/dRfJNTeKEsw
Angelina Jolie, Sean Penn giving up his Oscar, Mila Kunis, Ben Stiller etc all visiting Ukraine or supporting Zelensky.
(Not being racist sorry, but just saying it how it is)
- All jews supporting Zelensky etc...

Russia is going on the offensive big time in the next week or so;
meanwhile it's happy to use Bakhmut as a Ukrainian death trap killing 8 to 1 and destroying their capacity to fight back
Ukraine fights for every inch of territory for propaganda wins.
Russia is slowly annihilating the Ukrainian military entirely on ground it chooses.
- Russia is happy to give up territory to maintain it's military force and save the lives of it's soldiers.
Ukraine continues to send its men into the meat-grinder to buy time, but it's only delaying the inevitable.

Meanwhile, Putin more or less apologised to the Russian people and military commanders last week for trying to make peace with the west, and noted that the West wants nothing less than the complete destruction and subjagation of the Russian Federation.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 27 December 2022 12:43:30 PM
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None of the western efforts to hurt Russia economically, and create a political crisis that would unseat Putin have worked.
It just made Russia and China stronger and hurt the west.

EXCLUSIVE Russia's state-owned RNRC to reinsure Russian oil shipments, sources say
http://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-russias-state-owned-rnrc-reinsure-russian-oil-shipments-sources-say-2022-06-10/

Russia is amassing a shadow fleet of tankers to avoid EU oil sanctions
http://qz.com/russia-is-amassing-a-shadow-fleet-of-tankers-to-avoid-e-1849853809

Russia's Power Machines completes first high-power gas turbine to replace imported equipment
http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-gasturbine/update-1-russias-power-machines-completes-first-high-power-gas-turbine-to-replace-imported-equipment-idUKL8N33G0Q5

Meanwhile you've got the same warmongering neocons like Lindsay Graham
calling for Putin to be assasinated and overthrown
Sen. Lindsey Graham's apparent call for Putin to be assassinated draws backlash
http://www.npr.org/2022/03/04/1084548984/lindsey-graham-putin

Lindsey Graham Says Ukraine War Won't End Unless Russians Take Out Putin
http://www.huffpost.com/entry/lindsey-graham-take-putin-out_n_63a437f2e4b0aae8bcb4c7cc

Which is now the only offramp they have...
While Russia has already taken protective steps against western lead NGO's
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2015-10-06/putin-outs-ngos

The west has got nothing but lies and propaganda, and can't send any more weapons without reducing its own stockpiles of weapons.
UPDATE 1-Russia's Power Machines completes first high-power gas turbine to replace imported equipment

Meanwhile Britain and EU are becoming de-industrialised and their people are going to freeze without Russian energy;
- And the EU is starting to fracture in support for Ukraine.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 27 December 2022 12:59:49 PM
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Stop listening to what the the fake news tells you and find out what others are saying:
http://youtu.be/jH3iGOPNCiM
http://youtu.be/2yM-YAVu174
http://youtu.be/XbuZYRtBfWI

Ukraine fighters put to death by Putin's men; Hail of rockets lights up night sky in war zone
http://youtu.be/h1nV4GjG0i8

Has Russia ran out of missiles yet?
They are just selling you bs, so you keep supporting the war, while Ukrainians get annihilated.
Wait for a week or so till the ground hardens, Russia will go on the offensive.

Large Russian military columns moving towards the frontline, Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine very concerned.
http://youtu.be/2P-iaDp2QqY
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 27 December 2022 1:14:03 PM
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The whole stinkin world is corrupt.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8F6ooNCtfGo
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 27 December 2022 1:15:13 PM
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Dear Paul,

Putin will not abandon his quest to control Ukraine.
It's been planned for years, at least since the 2014
annexation of Crimea and Putin can maintain the offensive
indefinitely.

The Ukrainians have certainly shown courage and resolve.
They have the powerful motivation of fighting to defend
their homeland and they enjoy the moral support of most
of the free world, along with significant military aid.

But they have a population of just 43.6 million before the
conflict began from which to draw combatants. That compares
with Russia's 146 million.

However as long as Western countries keep sending arms
any negotiations for peace will be postponed. I can't see
the Ukrainians negotiating with Putin. They will not allow
their country to be carved up and return to Russian rule.

What happens in the future remains unknown.
In the meantime the bodies will keep piling up.

Putin is not Gorbachev. Gorbachev saw the degraded state of
the Soviet Union and he concluded "Everything is rotten
it has to be changed." He proposed reforms and changed history.
Gorbachev tried to negotiate a peaceful end to the Cold War.
He gave peace a chance.

Putin put war on the agenda. And he's not about to give up.
Until he gets what he wants. The return of the Soviet Empire.
There's very little chance of finding another Gorbachev
amongst the ranks of the communist apparatus.
Posted by Foxy, Tuesday, 27 December 2022 3:54:17 PM
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It boils down to this;
The Russians invaded Ukraine. Does anyone think the Ukraine or even
its current supporters would ever have invaded Russia.
Only one side had something to gain.
So if Russia wins they gain an enormous rebuild expense.
Do you think the Russians will be pleased with that ?
Or will they leave it as an unpopulated wreck ?
Maybe that is what Putin wanted all along; a demonstration of what
happens if you upset Russia.
Sooner or later he will pick on the wrong country and get a nuclear response.
Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 27 December 2022 6:00:35 PM
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More western propaganda. [rolls eyes]
Residents of Mariupol started moving into newly built apartment complexes 3 months ago.
http://youtu.be/gJAqPSCVjy4
Whilst I'm sure it was about optics I also think it was genuinely about showing the Russian speaking people who still reside there that they are a part of Russia now, and will be taken care of.

Russian Plan for the Reconstruction of Mariupol Leaked
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/13/russian-plan-for-the-reconstruction-of-mariupol-leaked-a79074

Russia rebuilds free houses for Mariupol residents
http://youtu.be/yH_j652I-ow

"Only one side had something to gain."
That's why the US spent 100 billion?
- Because they had nothing to gain but simply care about democracy and are the most generous people on earth?
Is that what you believe?

I swear you lot must think that only Russians are creating propaganda.
Everything you think you know about the war is probably a lie, or a half truth at best.
- You're the victims of western propaganda.
If you think I'm wrong go dig a little, find out the truths for yourselves.

Russia's ultimatum to Ukraine before destruction. Fulfill our proposals or Russian army will decide!
http://youtu.be/uYxlf2TzxPk

I truly don't mean to rain on anyone's parade.
But the truths are out there if you look.
- And you're not going to get that from 9 news or the abc.
They will treat you like a mushroom and feed you bs, but hey if that's what you like being spoonfed....
As long as a majority of people believe it, governments can keeps supporting it
And that's all that matters.

How many of you would take the time to watch this video below and see how deep the lies really are?

I took a LIBERAL, ANTI WAR Protester to see the truth in Donbass, and THIS Happened!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OysQ7yQl_o
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 27 December 2022 6:41:47 PM
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Dear Critic,

«Everything you read is lies, but you're pro-Jew so would automatically be on the Ukrainian side, with all it's bias points of view.»

Wow, please tell this to David Singer! http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=22251#388175

«4 Jews in charge of the Ukrainian nation. Zelensky, Shmyhal, Reznikov, Yermak. Pres, PM, Def, Staff.»

Until your post I was only aware of Zelensky being Jewish.
Is this information Russian propaganda or Western propaganda?
And why should that make any difference to me?

Well I suppose that all these horror stories I've heard about Stalin, the gulags and such, were also just Western propaganda, that all the people I've spoken with in person about their hardships there, were just Jewish conspirators and that the Ukrainian Holodomor too was actually a natural famine, with Stalin, the Sun of Nations, sending over train-fulls of cakes to save the poor Ukrainian farmers, but these stupid farmers refused to eat the cakes because they were not kosher...
Posted by Yuyutsu, Tuesday, 27 December 2022 7:44:46 PM
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David Singer.
Why would I waste my time talking to that guy..
Been there done that, I made my arguments and I moved on.
Your religious right Yuyutsu?
Once Judaism now what - Hindu or Buddhist? (Sorry if I got that wrong)
Didn't the Soviets wipe out (or attempt to wipe out) just about every trace of religion in USSR?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Christians_in_the_Soviet_Union
Yet the Russian people have gone back to their Christian roots.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Russia
That's about as different as you and me...
So what makes you think they're essentially the same people?
- Or that the USSR ever really represented the true Russian people?
I think it's a mistake to conflate the USSR with Russia.
- And after all, socialism came from the west.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_socialism
Who funded the Bolshevik Revolution? Jews.
http://www.heritage-history.com/index.php?c=read&author=allen&book=none&story=bankroll
(Note Carroll Quigley - Tragedy and Hope)
http://www.amazon.com.au/Tragedy-Hope-History-World-Time/dp/094500110X

Here's what I just watched:
SCOTT RITTER ON RUSSIA EXPANDING THE MILITARY AND, THE VICTORY THAT IS MORE THAN JUST OVER UKRAINE.
http://youtu.be/wqxFiy7-PaU
- It's a fairly long video, but it provides a lot of insight into how this war and the aftermath of which (peace) is likely to play out.
I've been following this war for the last 305 days.
I watch an hour or more of stuff related to the conflict in Ukraine pretty much every single day.

Who funded Zelensky's rise to fame. Ihor Kolomoisky.
Is This Man the Most Powerful Jew in the World?
http://tinyurl.com/5n8cs66h

Zelensky, Hunter Biden — and Their Sugar Daddy, Kolomoisky
http://youtu.be/fUPKZkqXfZI
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 27 December 2022 8:38:20 PM
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Political commentators have made it quite clear that
Russia will not abandon its quest to
control Ukraine. They tell us that it's been planned for
years, at least
since the 2014 annexation of Crimea and we're told that
Russia can maintain the offensive indefinitely.

It's been pointed out that -
since the 13th century Russia has experienced more years
of war than peace. That this generation has fought in Chechnya
for 11 years and won. They fought in the North Caucasus for
9 years and won. They fought for 17 years in Angola and 11 in Afghanistan.

We're told that -
the Russians are proud of their victories against Napoleon in
1812, against Germany in WWII and against the US and her
allies in Vietnam. That they believe that they prevailed in
Afghanistan, Georgia and Crimea. That they are confident of
another win.

We all acknowledge that the Ukrainians
certainly have been courageous and shown great
resolve and they have had moral support of most of the free
world as well as significant military aid but
they have a puny air-force, a small navy and a population
of just 43.6 million from which to draw combatants compared
to Russia's 146 million.

Ultimately who do you think will win?

That is the million dollar question.
Posted by Foxy, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 9:30:05 AM
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Zelensky's 10 Point Peace Plan.
http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/the-10-point-peace-plan-for-ukraine-proposed-by-zelensky

It's absurd.
Completely at odds with the realities on the ground.
Russia will never agree to this.

Zelensky's days as President are numbered.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 9:30:24 AM
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Both sides are now prosecuting the war with a view
to being in the strongest possible diplomatic
position when peace is negotiated. Zelensky is
trying to end the war justly and on the basis of
the United Nations Chsrter and International Law.

Zelensky is convinced that now is the time when
the Russian destructive war must be stopped.
He's presenting reasonable solutions trying to
offer peace, prosperity, and human freedoms.
He's frustrated by the weight of bad circumstances
that have been built up and he is not forced
to try to do the impossible.
Posted by Foxy, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 9:57:51 AM
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I apologize for all the typos - but I trust you'll
get the gist of what's being said.
Posted by Foxy, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 10:00:04 AM
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Zelensky is now trying to do the impossible.
We should all support him.
Posted by Foxy, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 10:01:31 AM
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Dear Critic,

The Russian people are known as strong and tough, but I cannot tell what it is about them which makes them so weak and helpless when it comes to defending their freedoms, why they allow themselves to be ruled by one tyrant after another, century after century.

Now you seem to suggest that the Jews did it to them, are you?
Not their drinking habits by chance?
Well perhaps the Russian bicycle-riders are at fault?
Posted by Yuyutsu, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 1:29:27 PM
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Hey Yuyutsu,
"The Russian people are known as strong and tough, but I cannot tell what it is about them which makes them so weak and helpless when it comes to defending their freedoms, why they allow themselves to be ruled by one tyrant after another, century after century."

Putin has a much higher approval rating than any leader of a western country enjoys, why is that?
It stands to reason there must be more to this that others fail to comprehend right?

"Now you seem to suggest that the Jews did it to them, are you?"

Bolsheviks / Mensheviks what do I know I wasn't there, I was born in the 1970's
- I can only go by what I read
Is there some stated point there that you dispute?
Did drunk Russian bicycle riders fund the Bolshevik revolution?
I dunno, if you do then feel free to explain.

- Maybe you think I did it, in some previous life
You seem to be making it about me now.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 2:08:01 PM
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Yes, everyone wants peace, but on what terms?

The idea of the war in Donbas starting because of Russian language speakers being persecuted looks a bit improbable in a country where 80% of the written and spoken language is Russian.

http://www.oecd.org/ukraine-hub/policy-responses/disinformation-and-russia-s-war-of-aggression-against-ukraine-37186bde/

It is unlikely that the conflict in Ukraine will be resolved other than by military force. Drone attacks on Russian air bases are a sign that Russian guided missiles are in short supply, and Russia is suffering losses of well over 10,000 killed or wounded per week. As one Russian woman observed, "There are no enemies, there are only victims in a war"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1V90z8C-r8
Posted by Fester, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 2:13:15 PM
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If Jews did fund Trotsky and the murder of the Russian Royal family Nicholas II of Russia after his abdication, and held a large amount of political influence in the initial formation of the USSR, why throw a tantrum about it, just own it and accept your horrible history.

- In the same way white Australians need to be reminded of our own horrible history every 26 January by people calling us 'colonisers' on 'Invasion Day'.

Execution of the Romanov family
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Execution_of_the_Romanov_family

Leon Trotsky
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leon_Trotsky

Really, what's the big deal?
Posted by Armchair Critic, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 2:25:13 PM
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"If Jews did fund Trotsky and the murder of the Russian Royal family..."

Hi AC,

Which Jews? Were/are they a secret organisation like the mythical Elders of Zion that Hitler and his ilk believed in? Are there similar organisations like "the Australians", "the Africans", "the Americans", "the Aborigines","the Ukrainians", "the Russians", "the Catholics"...? Am I a part of the organisation because I am an Australian citizen?

Like Putin and his chums, Hitler and his chums were about rape and pillage on a national scale. Like Putin, the narrative was the justification.
Posted by Fester, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 2:49:17 PM
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Perhaps this might help:

http://bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589
Posted by Foxy, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 2:55:59 PM
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Hey Foxy,
"Zelensky is now trying to do the impossible."
You got that part right.
"We should all support him."
- Why should we? Because the US want's to oust / overthrow Putin and chop Russia up into tiny pieces and then move onto China?

No, the Australian (leaders and) people should do what's best for the Australian people.

As for your article, no it doesn't really help anything.
It contains truths, half-truths and complete mistruths and when taken as a whole;
- Does not in any way help to inform the reader of the full story.
Also it's somewhat dated and doesn't reflect the situation on the ground.

Right now Ukraine has about 190k combat capable troops, where as Russia after mobilisation has at least 550k and outnumbers Ukrainian artillery by a factor of 8.
- Plus a whole lot more military hardware I'm not going to go into right now.

Hey Fester,
"The idea of the war in Donbas starting because of Russian language speakers being persecuted looks a bit improbable in a country where 80% of the written and spoken language is Russian."
Yes it's true the Ukrainians in 2014 tried to outlaw the Russian language.
The OECD were found to have been supporting Ukraine, so are not entirely reputable.
And I only watched a part of the video you added, the first people were happy to go to war in Ukraine if asked, and the few I watched after weren't so it made me wonder if the guy was cherry picking.
- And by the look of his bleached blond hair I:
1/ suspected he might be gay (not judging)
2/ Noticed he was earning an income on Western platforms (YouTube and Buy me a coffee accessed by western NGO's who created VPN specifically for this purpose) and had a financial interest in supporting westernisation of Russia.

As for Jews, I've merely stated facts, and if you disagree with what I've put out I'm happy to hear it and retract and apologise if I've gotten things wrong.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 4:34:55 PM
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Ultimately though, I'd really suggest you all watch these 2 videos.

I took a LIBERAL, ANTI WAR Protester to see the truth in Donbass, and THIS Happened!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OysQ7yQl_o

SCOTT RITTER ON RUSSIA EXPANDING THE MILITARY AND, THE VICTORY THAT IS MORE THAN JUST OVER UKRAINE.
http://youtu.be/wqxFiy7-PaU

Don't do it for me, do it for yourselves to broaden your own understanding of how things actually are.

I'm happy to respect everyones opinions, but it makes things a whole lot easier if you're all a little better informed to begin with.

I never argue anything without some kind of basis of merit, you all should know that of me by now.
- And sometimes I do get things wrong, but I'm not afraid to admit it when I do.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 4:39:32 PM
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Dear Critic,

I always believed that the common Russian people are victims of their regimes.

But now you claim that the Russians always supported their despotic regimes.
- well, that's hard to tell because not too many, even Russians, like to find themselves doing hard labour and freezing in Siberia for 10,15 or 20 years for telling their preferences too freely.

So then is it not just Stalin but the common Russians who supported the murder by hunger of 7-10 million Ukrainian farmers?

Nor is it Putin, but the common Russians and their mothers who are simply eager for them to die patriotically in the fields of Ukraine for Matyushka Zemlja?

I can see why Jews were motivated to get rid of the Romanov dynasty: http://aish.com/48956806/

Yet I wanted to understand how exactly they managed to kill them, so I looked up your reference, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Execution_of_the_Romanov_family, and found the following:

"The White Army investigator Nikolai Sokolov erroneously claimed that the executions of the Imperial Family was carried out by a group of "Latvians led by a Jew".[149] However, in light of Plotnikov's research, the group that carried out the execution consisted almost entirely of ethnic Russians (Nikulin, Medvedev (Kudrin), Ermakov, Vaganov, Kabanov, Medvedev and Netrebin) with the participation of one Jew (Yurovsky) and possibly, one Latvian (Ya.M. Tselms).[150]"

Maybe they WERE just drunk bicycle riders after all...

Now Trotsky, a former Jew turned true communist believer who opposed the tyranny of Stalin for whom communism was just a token, was therefore murdered in exile. I suppose the common true-blu drunk bicycle-rider Russians wanted Stalin, thus got rid of this little Jew who was interfering with their murderous nationalist orgy.

Really, what's the big deal? Bicycle riders throughout the world must admit their crimes and repent for their horrible history of drunkenly trampling over and destroying that many cars, buses and trucks!
Posted by Yuyutsu, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 5:04:43 PM
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Hi AC,

Yuyutsu covered the question well, but it is a bit like saying "Jesus was killed by Jews, so all Jews are murderers.". It seems an archaic way of thinking, much like the fellow in the youtube video saying that he couldn't kill Ukrainians but he'd have no trouble killing Americans. The woman (she appears a bit after half way through) didn't seem influenced by propaganda.

The Russians have lost well over 100 BTGs, equipment and troops. They are running out of equipment now, so they are throwing tens of thousands of poorly trained and equipped soldiers at the Ukrainian forces in an effort to deplete ammunition and protect Russian hardware. It will be interesting to see how much air defence the Russians can muster to protect their airfields. The Russian Army seem to be taking their time taking Bakhmut.
Posted by Fester, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 6:28:23 PM
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Hey fester,
Well I guess that considering how these things can be twisted way out of proportion from what was intended, let me say that I certainly didn't mean to imply that all Jewish people are responsible for the acts of a few, and this holds true for all races and people.

One person should not be held responsible for the acts of another.
- Unless they themselves had some hand in those actions themselves.

I'm white, and would be called a coloniser just for my skin, even though I actually have a tiny bit of indigenous in me.
But I'm not directly responsible for anything that happened in the country 100+ years ago.

And I don't hold it against anyone for simply being Jewish if he came from there, in that kind of racist sense;
I've made some good Jewish friends online over the years and they aren't responsible for things that happened in the past any more than I'm responsible for things that happened in Australia 100+ years ago.
Yuyutsu is simply just another person to me, no more no less.
I wish nothing but the best for all the people in my life.
All of you included, regardless what any of you think of me.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 6:47:58 PM
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"The Russian Army seem to be taking their time taking Bakhmut."

I'm not sure if it's by accident or deliberate.
Ukraine fights to defend every inch of soil, but the Russians are happy to strategically withdraw or choose a place best suited to inflict harm upon the Ukrainian defenders.
I know that if they're planning to eventually make a move on Odessa, that they want to destroy the Ukrainian forces first and leave it till last so that the city is virtually defenseless when they take it.
Odessa has historical significance to them, they don't want to destroy it.

I've added plenty of links on this thread, if anyone wanted to get a different point of view from what the mainstream media says, I've given plenty of ways to go digging, if one wanted to.

But let me tell you, if the Ukrainian military weren't in big trouble right now for what is coming really soon when the ground hardens, then Lavrov wouldn't be issuing ultimatums.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-lavrov-ukraine-ultimatum-army-territory-b2252042.html

“Our proposals for the demilitarisation and denazification of the territories controlled by the regime, the elimination of threats to Russia’s security emanating from there, including our new lands, are well known to the enemy,” state news agency TASS quoted Mr Lavrov as saying.
“The point is simple: Fulfill them for your own good. Otherwise, the issue will be decided by the Russian army.”

This should be enough to tell you that the situation for Ukraine is rather grim, and that if the media you read is telling you otherwise, then maybe the media isn't telling the whole truth.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 6:59:08 PM
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Dear Critic,

Russia can never exhaust the Ukrainian forces because they are only the front-liners. Europe prefers, if possible, to send out Ukrainians first to man the Ukrainian front-line and only arm them rather than risk its own sons, but if the situation gets bad enough then they will send to the front further fresh soldiers and equipment of their own countries, by land, by sea and by air. Russia stands not a chance.
Posted by Yuyutsu, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 8:51:08 PM
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Putin readies MASSIVE offensive with 3 goals - Col. Douglas MacGregor
http://youtu.be/gNX6hQVgyWQ

I don't want to argue with you Yuyutsu, over events yet to unfold.
- But I think the only chance Ukraine has left now is to capitulate to Russian demands or for the US to put boots on the ground.
The sooner this all ends decisively, and with the least amount of people killed or wounded, the better.
It would've been better if Ukraine had've accepted and stuck to the Misnk agreements.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 9:13:49 PM
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Hi AC,

I agree with your sentiments. What I find annoying these days is the condemning of people for showing any sort of xenophobia. Looking at xenophobia over the centuries, it was quite the norm and often justified. People can be kind and helpful, but also diabolically horrible, and both behaviours can come from the same person. I think that rather than see the exploration of past centuries as acts of genocide, it should, along with western laws and democratic systems, be seen as a continuing process by which human beings of all races and cultures can realise shared values, aspirations and purpose. I don't believe in the noble savage.
Posted by Fester, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 9:15:39 PM
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And as for your war comments AC, you remain the optimist for the Russian war effort. You have ever been predicting Russian advances and victories that have failed to eventuate.

What I see is a Russian army incapable of confronting the Ukrainians directly with mechanised armour, and possessing less accurate long range strike capability. Consequently the Russian strategy seems to be one of using massed infantry to protect their artillery, tanks and apcs, and using their longer range weapons to target supply infrastructure, water and electricity, and to terrorise civilians.

The Ukrainians are keeping their offensive capacities well hidden, but seem to have good mobility and very good intelligence for targeting. Their ability to target Russian air bases seems to have exposed a lack of air defence capability, possible due to a lack of anti-aircraft missiles.

Like you AC, I think the war horrible and hope it ends, but I have been surprised by the Russian Army's willingness to destroy itself. I think the main danger for Russia after the conflict ends will be China retaking its territory in Eastern Russia. Russia will become more vulnerable the more its military gets depleted.
Posted by Fester, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 10:06:51 PM
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Dear Critic,

«- But I think the only chance Ukraine has left now is to capitulate to Russian demands or for the US to put boots on the ground.»

The useless US will not put boots on the ground - but Europe will!
(the US will continue to provide money and weapons though)

Next year there will be British, French, German, Polish, Italian, Austrian, Spanish, Danish, Greek and Belgian forces on Ukrainian ground and especially in the air, but only if necessary and let's hope that it won't be, that Ukraine can handle the war themselves, just with further American and European weapon support.

What is also being overlooked is that Netanyahu, forming a government tomorrow in Israel, will soon attack Iran to prevent it from having nukes and while a bloody fierce war is expected in the Middle-East, this will mean an end to Iranian drones for Russia.

Let us not forget that this war is not about Ukraine's local issues: if Europe does nothing and Ukraine falls in 2023, then Russian tanks will march in the streets of Warsaw in 2024 and in the streets of Paris in 2026, along with Chinese troops taking Taiwan in 2024, Tokyo in 2025 and Sydney in 2026.
Posted by Yuyutsu, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 11:19:16 PM
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"let's hope that it won't be, that Ukraine can handle the war themselves," No Yuyutsu, lets hope peace comes to the people of Ukraine, and the killing and bloodshed stops. That's what I hope for.
Posted by Paul1405, Thursday, 29 December 2022 5:58:27 AM
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Hi Armchair Critic,

Australia supports Zelensky because he's trying to end the war
justly and on the basis of the United Nations Charter and
International law. Australia must support this action otherwise no
sovereign nation will be safe. Zelensky is confident that now
is the time when the Russian destructive war must and can be
stopped.

Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a major miscalculation.
Unable to secure a rapid victory Russia got bogged down in a
long, bloody, offensive and has suffered a series of
embarrassing defeats. When an authoritarian leader's aura of
invincibility fades - it can cause problems for the leader. It
hasn't ended well for Russian leaders who fought wars and did
not win them.

We need to guard against the propaganda of "Don't humiliate
Putin," camp which is shorthand for "Don't let Ukraine win."
Because that will not be good for Ukraine, the neighbouring
sovereign states, the West, or the wider world.

Our hope lies in the fact that many states - Japan, Germany,
South Korea, Spain, Portugal, and Greece have managed to
throw off militarism and autocracy.

Our hope lies with the emerging generation of Russians
who hopefully will try to have a voice in a new Russia.
Even though they have been thus far effectively controlled
and suppressed by Putin. We can hope that many younger
Russians are aware of the outside world and that they don't
support the war in Ukraine and want an open and prosperous life.

Social media provides a platform to organize and give voice to
this generation that the state can only suppress with difficulty.
Let's hope that they will use it
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 29 December 2022 9:54:10 AM
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Hi Foxy,
I've got a big post written and coming, but I'm short on responses and will have to wait until later to post it all.

"Zelensky is confident that now is the time when the Russian destructive war must and can be stopped."

How's he going to do that?
What path to victory does he have on the battlefield?
Do you actually watch ANY of the content I share? No.

"Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a major miscalculation.
Unable to secure a rapid victory Russia got bogged down in a
long, bloody, offensive and has suffered a series of
embarrassing defeats."

Ukraine indicated a willingness to negotiate when Russian forces were at Kiev, Russia pulled back in a show of goodwill, then Boris Johnson went to Ukraine and told him to keep the war going.

"When an authoritarian leader's aura of invincibility fades - it can cause problems for the leader."

Putin may step aside in 2024, and Medvedev may take his place.
Speaking of:
- Some interesting predictions from him yesterday, which at first glance seem far fetched.
On second glance, what happens if Russia cuts oil production?
OPEC won't come to the rescue, they oppose the price caps.
Suddenly many of his predictions seem a whole lot less outlandish.

"We need to guard against the propaganda of 'Don't humiliate
Putin,' camp which is shorthand for 'Don't let Ukraine win.'.

I don't want Ukraine to win.
I want the West and the neoconservatives who engineer these endless wars to get a blood nose.
I've no problems with a multi-polar world build on mutual respect for other countries cultures and sovereignty.
I don't think Russia or China seek global conquest.
I hope they just seek security guarantees against the West for it's endless wars, sanctions and overthrows to install western puppet leaders.

"Our hope lies with the emerging generation of Russians who hopefully will try to have a voice in a new Russia.
Even though they have been thus far effectively controlled and suppressed by Putin."

You, therefore support economic sanctions and overthrows.
- I do not.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Thursday, 29 December 2022 10:28:19 AM
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Are you telling us Armchair Critic that you believe that Taiwan is the aggressor to China?
Posted by Hasbeen, Thursday, 29 December 2022 11:46:09 AM
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Everyone on this forum knows who you Armchair Critic
support in Putin's war against Ukraine. You've made
your position obviously clear to everyone. I cannot
condone your support of a tyrant.

I shall leave you with these words:

The USSR was a blood-stained regime
In which millions were murdered as a daily routine
Might is right was their slogan of choice
Dissenting cries were not given a voice

History has written of the many disposed
The frozen infernos have now been exposed
Putin and Stalin are two of a kind
Yet some in the West to this are still blind

Putin like Stalin will take what he wants
He will kill and destroy those who fight in response
The world can't afford this rampage of terror
Not protecting Ukraine would be a huge error

First the Ukraine, then Romania
Followed by Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
Do we want the USSR re-instated
Ruling Eastern Europe unabated?

The world must unite and be fully aware
That this is a battle that we all need to share
Putin must be stopped in his tracks
Otherwise no sovereign nation can truly relax.

Who will help us when China comes a calling
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 29 December 2022 2:09:21 PM
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Hi Foxy,

I think AC a good guy who cares about the world and think him every bit as entitled to form an opinion as you or I. I think that my opinion might differ from yours as I see the destruction of the Russian forces as a good thing as I think them an instrument of state sanctioned terror. Like you though I hate the loss of life on both sides. As a Russian woman observed, "There are no enemies in war, only victims.".

Hi AC,

I believe that the Russian army lost 300 troops and a heap of equipment from a HIMARS attack near Melitopol before they could be mobilised to the front lines. In the confusion which followed a few hundred troops deserted. The Ukrainians now have kamikaze drones capable of knocking out tanks, apcs and artillery. I think that they have a long range and can return for redeployment if no target is found, although they seem to find plenty of targets in this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4Y8xdM4Q5g
Posted by Fester, Thursday, 29 December 2022 2:51:39 PM
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Hey everyone,
I wrote this big post out this morning when I was short on comments;
It's just over 760 words and I must admit I'm a little apprehensive about whether or not I should post the last part of it because I'm not sure how it will be taken.
- In any case I'll share the first parts of it.

Part 1

You all know that I've stated previously that I don't support economic sanctions
(because I believe its collective punishment against an entire nation)
and I also don't support western overthrows of foreign governments.
(And as for the people of the Donbass I support 'The right to self-determination')

If you stand back and look at that picture, you'll see that many countries which are targets of overthrows of the west have little choice except to act like much worse dictators than what they might actually be.

They have to stop freedom of the press, act against NGO's and mass protests just to retain their culture and sovereignty.
- Because if the don't the West will use their 5th columns to deliberately cause conflicts under the cover of human rights etc.

Using economic sanctions puts a nation into a position where they can't as easily make changes which are better for their citizens, and the people will become disgruntled with their leaders and from there all one needs to do is leverage that curtailment of press freedoms, label the leader a dictator and a human rights abuser and use pro-democracy movements to force an overthrow.

Like it or not, this is what the West does.

- Then you westernise the country; with western puppet governments and western companies come in and rape the nations wealth.
It really is an ugly manipulative system the so called freedom loving democratic west engages itself in.

- And many innocent people end up dying for it.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Thursday, 29 December 2022 6:14:49 PM
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Part 2

There's hawks on both sides of the US government that support this.
The west profits at the expense of others and the politicians who support it get kickbacks.

Take Belarus and Kazakhstan for example, they only recently moved closer to Russia when the west tried to start civil unrest in their countries, which forced them to align with Moscow.

The West uses the CIA, National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and USAID, and organises protesters through things like Oslo Freedom Forum, and VPN networks.

What choice do countries like Russia have when people in the West like Victoria Nuland and Lindsay Graham exist for no other purpose to create foreign conflicts, and never ever stop to push forward these 'rule the world' for profit agendas?

Then they say the want Putin assassinated, or the Russian government overthrown, or Russia chopped up into tiny manageable pieces;
- before they move onto China.

Right now Ukraine says they will ONLY enter peace discussions with the Russian government after they face a war crimes tribunal.
(Basically saying the existing government will be removed, and they will negotiate new agreements with a new pro-western Russian puppet government that is aligned with the west)

It's one thing to do this type of thing to smaller regional countries, but another thing entirely to do it to nuclear armed states.

I don't want a nuclear bloody war or billions of people dead.
The West is the aggressor, but it does so hiding behind issues of human rights etc.
- Situations which itself has had a hand in creating.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Thursday, 29 December 2022 6:15:49 PM
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Hi Foxy,
I know your opinions on things as well as you know mine.
Let me put things in a way where we can at least find some common understanding.
I support Russia in this conflict, and to some degree China as well if what they're doing is to simply defend themselves from the West.
I don't support communism, (and in regards to Russia I don't see them as a communist country anymore) but I do support their both their right to defend themselves.
I support whatever steps they have to take reciprical of the Wests own rules to defend their countries from existential threats.

If they step out of this zone I too will oppose it, but I can't guarantee that this thing wont spiral out of control, as things stand.
Russia wants demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, but they're also fighting for their very existence as the west will not stop with its own goals.
All of this could've been avoided if Ukraine respected the Misnk agreements.
Russia couldn't allow the west to take Crimea, and it could not stand by indefinitely while Ukraine attacked schools and hospitals in the Donbass with Russian speaking people who themselves wanted no part of Ukraine after the western sponsored coup (Maidan) and wanted to be independent.
Russia had no choice, this war was unavoidable.
Since the war started Russia moved to remove the Ukrainian government or force them into negotiations (to become non-aligned - not join NATO), and to protect these Russian speaking citizens from constant attack.

Hi Fester,
I hadn't heard about that particular engagement, but it wouldn't at all surprise me if true.
One of Ukraine's strategies was to move on Melitopol, and then further to the Sea of Azov to cut off the land corridor to Crimea.
Surovikin has since moved to reinforce Melitopol.
I don't know about whether or not troops deserted, though I'm not saying they didn't.
I watch videos that mainly cover the general situation, but don't necessarily cover all individual battles.
I noticed a few 'Z's on some of the targets in the video.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Thursday, 29 December 2022 7:44:22 PM
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Hi AC,

I think the munitions in the video were s600s. They weren't even developed at the start of the war and the Ukrainians would only have a few of them. I think the video was of a battle field evaluation by a trained unit. The s300s looked little better than the drones the Ukrainians were building, but the s600s look very deadly, much like a Javelin with a 40km range. If the Ukrainians can get enough of them they could target the Russian guns very effectively. They could be at least as effective as the HIMARS and would save a heap of Ukrainian lives and push the Russians back much faster. Who'd have thought all those kids playing their video games could become a key in defeating the Russian army?
Posted by Fester, Thursday, 29 December 2022 8:35:39 PM
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Dear Critic,

You keep blindly blaming "The West", "The West" and "The West", but when asked for concrete examples, it always comes down to just one single country and its various agencies and corporations - the United States of America.

Even while the USA are aggressors, The West is NOT just the USA. Not even America as such - even their closest neighbours, Canada and Mexico, do not share the USA's bad behaviours.

You mentioned the CIA for example: it is not European, it is not Australian, it is not even Canadian - it's a governmental body of the USA alone: I too am upset when I frequently want to watch religious Hindu DVDs, made in India and sold to me here in Australia, but they won't allow me to start watching before forcing on me, with no way to override, these insulting & humiliating CIA warnings about illegal-copying, etc. according to that unrelated 3rd-country's laws.

Or why must fearful Australian financial institutions interrogate me about USA residency and taxation whenever I want to open a new bank account here, sometimes even just to maintain an existing Australian account?

I understand why you resent the arrogant USA and want them punished, but I urge you, please find some other way(s) to punish the USA alone without also creating disastrous havoc for all decent freedom-loving countries who genuinely care about human rights, not just as a tactic!

Russian victories wouldn't have that much impact on America, across the Atlantic - but they would destroy Europe. While some professional and adventurous American soldiers might also be killed in action here and there, 10's of millions if not 100's of million European civilians would be killed, the rest raped, robbed, tortured and enslaved by Russia if they remain passive.

Despite all American colonialism, arrogance and stupidity, Europe (and Australia) have both the right and duty to defend themselves from Russian (and Chinese) attacks (even if these once happened to originate by American aggression), and better do so early and on Ukrainian soil rather than later on our own soil.
Posted by Yuyutsu, Thursday, 29 December 2022 10:37:16 PM
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Hi Yuyutsu,
Try not to get too upset about things you can't control.

"...I urge you, please find some other way(s) to punish the USA alone without also creating disastrous havoc for all decent freedom-loving countries who genuinely care about human rights..."

I'm not creating havoc for anyone.
I don't control what any government does, I'm merely exercising my right to have an opinion on matters that impact me;
- Impact all of us.

"Russian victories wouldn't have that much impact on America, across the Atlantic - but they would destroy Europe."

Russia hasn't embarked on 'Red terror' across Europe.
They are merely taking steps to ensure the security of their nation and people.
What do you think would happen tomorrow if the Chinese military started setting up shop in Mexico or Cuba.
- Mexico or Cuba would be invaded.

Monroe Doctrine 1823
The Monroe Doctrine is the best known U.S. policy toward the Western Hemisphere. Buried in a routine annual message delivered to Congress by President James Monroe in December 1823, the doctrine warns European nations that the United States would not tolerate further colonization or puppet monarchs.

Have you ever heard of the concept 'Treat others the way you would like to be treated'?
- This is how one builds mutual respect.

"Understandably, the United States has always taken a particular interest in its closest neighbors – the nations of the Western Hemisphere. Equally understandably, expressions of this concern have not always been favorably regarded by other American nations."

http://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/monroe-doctrine

So the US takes a position where it claims a right to have an interest on the goings on of it's neighbours, but it does not offer the same mutual respect to Russia or China who also have an interest in the goings on of their neighbours, right?
- And the US actively interferes in the goings on of these nuclear nations neighbours, right.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 30 December 2022 8:55:09 AM
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[Cont.]
Putin explained at the 2008 NATO conference in Budapest that plans to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO were going to be a problem, would cross a line.
Did anyone listen?
Putin tried to avoid these events with the Minsk accords, signed onto by all major parties.
Merkels admissions that they never planned to implement them, but simply use them to buy more time to build up Ukraine's military tells Russia that the collective west cannot be trusted to abide by agreements.
- He was right to invade, and this situation we now have was completely avoidable.

Russia didn't cut off European energy.
The EU is itself responsible for the mess it finds itself in.
It may get through this year but they have little prospect of getting through next years winter without Russian energy.

What about Liz Truss sending a text "It's done" after the Nordstream pipeline was blown up?
Russia didn't stop the Siemans gas turbines from being returned.
Europe has done this to itself, the last time Russia pushed across Europe was in WWII, they took 27 million deaths defeating the NAZIs.
Today is an age of nuclear weapons, they'd be inviting a nuclear war if they tried anything like that.

Russia is not invading Europe, and China is not invading Australia.
You're speculating on future events, that would undoubtedly earn a nuclear response if either of them tried.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 30 December 2022 8:56:44 AM
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Hi AC,

You support Russia's right to defend itself?
Against whom? Russia invaded Ukraine not the
other way around. They are the aggressors and
they are in the wrong here. Putin has made it
quite clear that he wants the return of the
Soviet Empire and he will do what it takes to
achieve that. He will use whatever pretext
is necessary - such as communist leaders have done
in the past - "wars of liberation." The strategy
has not changed.

The only way this can come to an end is if the
Russian people themselves take a stand and say
"hell no, we won't go and fight!" And m any
Russians are doing just that. - They're running
away as fast as their legs can carry them.

Hopefully a New Year will see the fall of this tyrant
by the hand of his own people.

He may appreciate your support. I certainly don't!
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 30 December 2022 9:12:10 AM
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Hi Foxy,
"Putin has made it quite clear that he wants the return of the Soviet Empire and he will do what it takes to achieve that."
You're saying he wants the return of communism and to take over western Europe, and the Baltic states?
- If and when this looks to be an eventuality I too will oppose it.

"Hopefully a New Year will see the fall of this tyrant by the hand of his own people."
- Then you'd find yourself in good company with like-minded neoconservatives who have caused untold misery all across the globe.

You should go read the book 'The Grand Chessboard' by Zbigniew Brzezinski
Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 30 December 2022 9:27:17 AM
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Hey Foxy,
As a further comment,
"He will use whatever pretext is necessary - such as communist leaders have done in the past - 'wars of liberation'. The strategy has not changed.
If you go read that book, you'll realise it's the Wests strategy which has not changed.

And FYI, I want you to understand that don't support Russia so much as I oppose what the other side has been and is doing.
- Please don't conflate one thing with the other.

I know your family came from Lithuania and lived there through the Soviet era, and that this has had a significant impact on your thoughts and feelings.

Hey Fester,
I'm not really well versed with all the drones in use on the Ukrainian side.
I know they're using DJI Mavik's as well as Switchblades.
The Russians have Orlan's Lancet's and Geranium-2
(which is the Russian name for the Iranian Shahed-136)
I'm not sure whether Iran is actively supplying those drones or whether the Russians are themselves building copies themselves based upon Iranian designs.

The nature of war certainly is changing with drone warfare, when air defenses can be overrun with drone swarms, and a million dollar tank can be destroyed with a 10k drone.
Some have questioned whether tanks are becoming obsolete, but in any case, ground forces are still required to complete the tasks.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 30 December 2022 9:45:59 AM
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Hi AC,

I read your posts and am always impressed by your interest and depth of knowledge, but I have trouble seeing much sense in your conclusions. I was viewing a program on Spain last night and noted that it had an economy as large as Russia's, bugger all resources, and a population a quarter the size. The biggest hindrance to Spain's economic development since the second world war was the Franco regime.

What makes more sense: All western nations being controlled by puppet US governments and part of a conspiracy to destroy Russia, or Russia being controlled by autocratic cleptocrats pilfering Russia's wealth and justifying their police state by brainwashing the population with wild conspiracy theories and fake news flooding from state controlled media?

As I have stated before AC, Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan had similar world views to Russia and treated their populations with the same contempt. Their prosperity and place in the world today suggest to me that the greatest assets of a nation are an educated population and a healthy democracy.
Posted by Fester, Friday, 30 December 2022 10:05:14 AM
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Hi AC,

Have you ever read the books of Robert Conquest?
Books like "The Harvest of Sorrow," or anything
by Solzhenitsyn - such as "The Gulag Archipelago,"?
The communist party has gone but the KGB is still
there and as political commentators point out - there
needs to be a memory of the totalitarian past in a
country like Russia. Everything you see is built on
the bones of millions of innocent people and that
should be a really big deal in Russia. Because of
Putin, it's not.

You might try reading - "The Man Without a Face: The
unlikely rise of Vladimir Putin," by Masha Gessen.
Then there's "Putin's Playbook," by Rebekah Koffler.
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 30 December 2022 10:30:37 AM
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cont'd

AC, if you think that the old Soviet tactics not longer
exist - are you aware of how many dissidents have been
arrested on Putin's orders? Are you aware of how many
journalists and others who dare criticize the regime
have been killed?

Just to mention a few names:

Alexei Navalny, Alexander Litvinenko, Pavel Anton, Ravil Maganov,
Dan Rapoport, Mikhail Lesin, Boris Nenytson, Boris Berezovsky,
Anastasia Baburova, Natalia Estemirova, Stanislav Markelov,
Anna Politkovskaya Paul Klebnikov, Sergei Yushenkov,
and the list goes on.

Nothing under Putin has changed. And to think it has is absurd.
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 30 December 2022 11:06:29 AM
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Russia under Vladimir Putin has moved back in
the direction of a highly centralized authoritarianism
regime which has chartered the state for most of its
1,000 year history. It is today a highly centralized
inner working of Putin's autocracy.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/30/russia-democracy-putin-soviet-union-cold-war/
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 30 December 2022 3:45:16 PM
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Hi Foxy,
Please don't take this the wrong way, but your feelings on this make you appear as someone with PTSD from yours or your parents time living in Lithuana.
You act like the USSR is still at the height of its power.
I honestly think you should consider a holiday in St. Petersburg.
Go and meet the people, talk to them.
Do yourself the favour of getting a wide range of opinions.
Maybe then you can transcend from that horrible history and find out what things are really all about now.

Fester said to me earlier he didn't understand why the Russians interviewed were happy to go to war to kill Americans.
Maybe those people already know what it is I'm trying to tell you all.
That it is the West with it's economic sanctions and overthrow of the government in Ukraine and neoconsevative agendas which has driven a wedge in between Ukraine and Russia and created so many conflicting problems where Russians have been pitted against other members of their own extended families,
(As many Russians have family in Ukraine),
- Now conscripted to going to war by the current Ukrainian government, put into power by a western sponsored coup.
You seem to think that Russians would embrace the West with open arms.
They tried this, the Russians hoped beyond all measure that the west would accept them, but it was not to be.

- Of course you could also save yourself the trouble and watch the 2 videos I suggested, but I'm not sure this would truly be enough for you.
I think you should go there, and find out things for yourself.
I sincerely hope you see the good side of my intentions behind my saying this, and are not offended by it.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 30 December 2022 4:48:11 PM
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Dear Foxy,

I am now reading a book called "The Sleepwalkers" by Christopher Clark. It is about the events that led up to WW1. After many years archives have been opened, and diplomatic and other actions that led up to the war have been made available to scrutiny.

Although we know that forces under Putin invaded Ukraine in February of this year there are many things that led up to that we don't know about but may know in the future when archives are opened. I feel on the partial information I have that a guarantee that Ukraine would not be part of NATO would have prevented the Russian invasion. I feel that western Europe and the US knew that Russia might invade Ukraine if Ukraine became more closely tied to western Europe but thought Russia probably wouldn't. I think they made a bad guess. However, I think a guarantee of Ukraine's neutrality might have prevented the war.

Maybe somebody in a 100 years will write a book about it.
Posted by david f, Friday, 30 December 2022 4:56:19 PM
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AC,

I've been visiting Russia pretty much every year since 1983.

I have visited St Petersburg while it was still Leningrad, had and still have many friends in that most beautiful of cities.
I have visited Moscow equally as often and was there the week Gorbachev took power. I saw the optimism of the average Russian at that time and equally saw how badly misplaced that optimism was. And I saw it slowly morph into despair and then a search for scape-goats. Few discerned the true cause for the failures of Gorbachev and his immediate successors but happily accepted the excuses offered up by the elites and ex-party members who raped the country while blaming the west.

More than the big cities, I've visited rural Russia more times than I've gotten drunk on Ararat Brandy (a favourite of both Churchill and my dearest Russian friend) - in particular rural and regional Siberia. The views of these people are very different to those of the Muscovites. They despise the central government just as they have for centuries and have no truck with the war which is why you see so many protests and acts of sabotage from the regions.

I know its easy to be seduced by apparently objective videos and to think that what you're fed is the truth.

But I'm afraid, AC, that you are badly mistaken about Russians and their enthusiasm for Putin's adventurism.
Posted by mhaze, Friday, 30 December 2022 5:12:41 PM
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Dear Critic,

«Russia hasn't embarked on 'Red terror' across Europe.»

Not yet across - they need to start somewhere, don't they, so where is Ukraine? In Africa?

And what difference makes the terror's colour?
I know it's not red - it's usually white, blue and red, but when Russia wants to maximise its cruelty/terror, it uses the mainly-green flag with smaller bits of white and red, a black emblem and golden scrolls on the side.

«You're saying he wants the return of communism and to take over western Europe, and the Baltic states?»

Communism cannot return because it never really was.
But as for the rest, yes, he wants just that, the biggest Russian empire he can get.

«The Monroe Doctrine is the best known U.S. policy... ...»

You are welcome in accusing the U.S.A of whatever, but Europe is not to be blamed for their idiocy.

«Putin explained at the 2008 NATO conference in Budapest that plans to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO were going to be a problem, would cross a line.
Did anyone listen?»

Give in to a bully?

«Merkels admissions that they never planned to implement them, but simply use them to buy more time to build up Ukraine's military»

A valid tactic for the attacked weak.

«Russia didn't cut off European energy.»

No: Europe proudly and courageously did so and is willing to suffer whatever to stop financing the Russian war machine.

«Today is an age of nuclear weapons, they'd be inviting a nuclear war if they tried anything like that.»

More bullying? Let it rip!

«Russia is not invading Europe, and China is not invading Australia.
You're speculating on future events, that would undoubtedly earn a nuclear response if either of them tried.»

Russia is already invading a European country while China is not YET invading Australia, but it will try once Australia participates in the defense of Taiwan, just a matter of time. So far there was no nuclear response because Europe is strong enough even without it. In the case of unprepared Australia, sadly, a nuclear response would likely be necessary.
Posted by Yuyutsu, Friday, 30 December 2022 5:54:09 PM
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Hi David f,
"I feel that western Europe and the US knew that Russia might invade Ukraine if Ukraine became more closely tied to western Europe but thought Russia probably wouldn't."

I'd be speculating, but I wonder based upon the events leading up to the invasion, that the opposite may in fact be true.
Also to further my argument here, is a video I shared earlier, added below.
This is the story of a woman who was deeply opposed to Putin's war.
She saw these 'Z's plastered around everywhere and to her they were like Nazi symbols and she left and went to Russia's far east for a while just to get away from them, to not have to see them.
Later she had an opportunity to help by being an interpreter for some people who were going to Donetsk.
through that journey and the people she met and spoke to there she came to the conclusion, as many others there did, that the war was completely unavoidable.

I took a LIBERAL, ANTI WAR Protester to see the truth in Donbass, and THIS Happened!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OysQ7yQl_o

The point of all this is that I'm not sure the US thought 'Russia wouldn't do it', as you suggested.
In contrast, I think they may have deliberately kept pushing and pushing, in order to force Putin to act, which it must be noted took 8 years until he actually did.

Hi mhaze,
I've never been to Russia, so you would know far more about things than me and maybe you can help me understand things more.
- But I've never said that Russians were enthusiastic for Putin's war.
Who would be happy seeing the husbands, brothers and sons being sent into a warzone?

Thank you both for your contributions
Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 30 December 2022 6:57:08 PM
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I'd like to share another really important video.
Maybe this will give David f a little bit of the backstory he hoped for, and mhaze and understanding of my reasoning in regards to 'seduced by apparently objective videos and to think that what you're fed is the truth', and some understanding of why I hold the opinion against the West as I do.

Also - Fester,
I never said that Russia was a model for a perfect society, and you spoke about oligarchs.
I know from videos that out in rural areas things are not great and people live in quite terrible living conditions.
It leaves a lot to be desired and I'd like to see Russia do more for these people.
Maybe the video I'm about to share will give you some understanding of things from an economic point of view at the end of the Soviet era.

So to all I'd like to share this video from Democracy Now.
I shared 2 other 'Must Watch' videos earlier, this is another 'Must watch' video.

Jeffrey Sachs: U.S. Policy & "West's False Narrative" Stoking Tensions with Russia, China
http://youtu.be/wmOePNsNFw0

I hope that it will help you all come to understand my reasoning better.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 30 December 2022 7:03:49 PM
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Hi AC

"Fester said to me earlier he didn't understand why the Russians interviewed were happy to go to war to kill Americans."

What I wanted to convey was that if the fellow was not so brainwashed by the state media he would feel the same way about killing Americans as he would about killing people in his own street.

Horrible as it is AC, I am no less convinced that things will be resolved diplomatically. The Russian losses of late have been staggering and the Ukrainians seem to be acquiring more offensive and defensive capability. It could get very tough for front line troops in the freezing cold with their supply lines cut.
Posted by Fester, Friday, 30 December 2022 8:34:57 PM
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Thank you everyone for your various comments.
I still have family and friends living in both Lithuania
and Russia. My maternal grandmother was Russian. She married
a Lithuanian who was in the Tsar's army. He brought her to
Lithuania. I grew up singing Russian songs and hearing
Russian folk-tales. Russian culture was very much a part of my
life.

I again will give you a Foreign Policy link that I think sums
things up rather well.
hRead it or not. It's up to you. I stand by balanced factual
reporting because of proper sourcing and a clean fact-check
record. MediaBias/Fact-Check has given this link a high in
factual reporting.

Regarding Putin - his actions speak for themselves.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/30/eussia-democracy-putin-soviet-union-cold-war/
Posted by Foxy, Saturday, 31 December 2022 6:25:08 AM
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Sorry. Here's the link again:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/30/russia-democracy-putin-soviet-union-cold-war/
Posted by Foxy, Saturday, 31 December 2022 6:30:18 AM
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Hi AC,

You can read all the various versions that you want.
My family and friends have lived experiences of life
both of the Soviet regime and life under Putin. They
know of what they speak. They've lived through it.
Not all of them survived. But those that did are alive
to tell the truth.
Posted by Foxy, Saturday, 31 December 2022 6:44:06 AM
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cont'd

AC - there's a book that's worth a read so that
you can understand things better:

"White Russians, Red Peril," by Sheila Fitzpatrick.
It's a Cold War history of migration to Australia
and what Russians (like others who fled the Soviet
Regime) had to put up with in Australia.

It may help you understand much better what people like
my parents had to put up with.
Posted by Foxy, Saturday, 31 December 2022 7:49:01 AM
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Hi Foxy,
Even if it was proven that Putin was the most evil man alive and that he liked to eat babies for breakfast,
- it doesn't mean I'd oppose one evil to support another.

What's my opinion over here?
http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=10010&page=0#342376
'None of the above'; and why?
- Because I think some things the left does is stupid and I think some stuff the right does is stupid.
Often, things both sides support like wars - are not at all in the citizens best interests.

I don't support what the West does.
The article you gave me, from a think tank (i.e payment for advocacy tank)
Well, the first thing it did was mention Madeleine Albright.

Madeleine Albright - The deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children was worth it for Iraq's non existent WMD's
http://youtu.be/RM0uvgHKZe8

You want me to oppose one bad actor to support another.
- Where I'd rather not choose between two evils, and instead say 'None of the above'.

Why can't the West 'Treat others the way it would like to be treated'
Why can't it respect other peoples security interests the same as it expects for itself?

Why does it have to intervene in other countries?
Did Afghanistan become democratic?
Look at Libya, and more, here's a list.
http://williamblum.org/essays/read/overthrowing-other-peoples-governments-the-master-list

Why do we need a unipolar world?
A rules-based-order where the US sets the rules and does whatever the hell it wants?
Why can't we have a multi-polar world built on mutual respect towards others?
Instead of its liberal interventions, why can't it just 'Lead by example'
Why does it have to rule by threats, coercion, intimidation, lawfare etc.
And do they really care about these others countries?
Or is it all about robbing them under the cover of human rights;
- And maintaining it's own western global hegemony?

Stay on top by knocking others down?
- So a few can profit from the chaos?
Posted by Armchair Critic, Saturday, 31 December 2022 8:07:24 AM
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Hi AC,

Putin behaves like a serial killer in a bad movie,
killing people right, left, and center leaving
his signature behind. His methods range from
throwing people out of windows, using chemical
agents,, freezing the sick and the vulnerable,
to taking out Ukraine's electric infrastructure
with missiles. Meanwhile the oligarchy does
nothing to stop him, they allow him to kill them
off one by one wherever they are in the world. They
continue to get rich - until their turn comes to
be thrown out of the window.

This is not a war just about territory. Putin wants to
force the West and countries in the post Soviet
region to accept limited sovereignty, he wants to
push the US presence out of eastern Europe and to
strengthen his own autocratic kleptocracy, to preserve
his power.

Putin wants acceptance for his worldview at large -
that nuclear powers do what they want and smaller nations
just fall into line.

I think that Russia is a place being destroyed by criminals
some outside driving tanks others in the ranks of the regime's
apparatus. We're back with a criminal state and madness in
Russia.

There's very little chance of finding another Gorbachev.
Posted by Foxy, Saturday, 31 December 2022 9:38:19 AM
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Hi AC

500000 Iraqi kids killed by the US? Apparently the figures were compiled from data provided by the Bath party to get sanctions against Iraq lifted, and may have included Kurdish children killed by Iraqi chemical weapons strikes. I guess we form opinions of things based on what we see.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/04/saddam-hussein-said-sanctions-killed-500000-children-that-was-a-spectacular-lie/

One thing that could be hard to cover up is a Russian defeat in Ukraine. Defeating Putin's terrorist army will make it much tougher for the gangsters to keep control in Russia and will hopefully give momentum for a push to democracy. If there is an example of control of a population by wealthy and powerful amoral elites it is surely Russia.
Posted by Fester, Saturday, 31 December 2022 10:14:29 AM
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Hi Fester,
Sometimes it's hard to know what the correct position on a certain topic is.
Look at democracy, a succession of 'pass the baton politics' in a 2 party preferred system
(where the 2 parties prefer you only ever vote for them)
- And with a grand end goal utopia of 'You will own nothing and be happy'...

I hope you all understand that I'm not necessarily supporting a bad thing
- Anymore than I'm opposing what I see an another bad thing.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Saturday, 31 December 2022 10:47:21 AM
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Paul,

I see that you are now a Putin fanboy. You seem to fantasize about dictators.

"Russia is ready to negotiate with all parties involved in the war in Ukraine but Kyiv and its Western backers have refused to engage in talks, President Vladimir Putin said in an interview aired on Sunday (Christmas Day)."

Considering the pre-conditions for these negotiations as stated by Lavrov that Ukraine cede all the occupied territories and demilitarize
are clearly unacceptable this is a farce.

Ukraine is clearly beating the Russians and is in no mood to come to the table until Russia is prepared to de-occupy all of Ukraine as before 2014. The issue for negotiations would be around war crime tribunals for Putin and his mates and the continuation of the sanctions devasting Russia's economy.
Posted by shadowminister, Saturday, 31 December 2022 3:05:51 PM
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AC,

Russia has been trying to take Bakhmut for 5 months, attacking the heavily fortified city over open fields which are now stinking from the rotting bodies of 1000s of dead Russians.

Since you were telling me how well the Russians were doing, they have lost the entire Kharkiv oblast, Kherson city, and the Ukrainians are slowly advancing through Luhansk and are about to take Kermina.

Russia has lost its best tanks, men, APVs, and many helicopters and aircraft. Crimea and Donbas are under constant attack and the newly mobilised troops are dying like flies. With the oil price cap, Putin has lost most of his oil and gas revenue and is losing more equipment than he can replace. The Russian budget is well into deficit and Putin is taking money from health care, education etc to divert to his ever-dwindling war machine.

All while the US and EU are supplying a steady stream of arms and ammunition and ever more sophisticated weapons.

Any dreams of Russia taking Odesa and more of the Donbas are laughable.
Posted by shadowminister, Saturday, 31 December 2022 3:06:16 PM
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Hi shadowminister,
It's funny how the story you're selling is signigicantly different to the one I'm hearing, but you have to pay attention to details.
It makes me think about the propaganda war to continue the support of western citizens.

I guess you could say there's 2 wars taking place at the same time.
One on the battlefields in Ukraine, and the other an economic war marked by an energy war taking place in Europe.
In response to that second economic war, Russia is in no particular rush in Ukraine, it's a battle of attrition.
They will choose their battles in a manner that inflicts heavy losses on the Ukrainian defenders whilst limiting their own losses.

Just in the last few days the Russian side has begun to make inroads into southern Bakhmut.
You can find more info here:
http://youtu.be/f7SPIY_7c7I?t=600
And here:
http://tass.com/politics/1555879
(FYI, Artyomovsk is the Russian name for Bakhmut)
They could try to push harder into these areas, but doing so would risk heavy losses, this is why:
http://youtu.be/F89iypG7k8s?t=172
General Wesley Clark on the importance of Bahkmut
http://youtu.be/k2KQBcSzG6I?t=233
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 1 January 2023 8:04:12 AM
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"Since you were telling me how well the Russians were doing, they have lost the entire Kharkiv oblast, Kherson city, and the Ukrainians are slowly advancing through Luhansk and are about to take Kermina."

There's more in the details surrounding the losses in Kharkiv and Kherson City.
What happened was that Russians were constrained under the original terms of the SMO (Special Military Operation)
- Troops that had originally signed up under 6mth contracts did not renew their contracts (situation has now changed after mobilisation)
which left the Russian forces spread thin.
The loss of territory in both places was definitely a defeat but they were in fact strategic withdrawls, rather than being overrun by Ukrainian counteroffensives.
- In the case of Kharkiv and Lyman areas it was a bit of a debacle, but in Kherson City, not so much so.
In Kherson City, the Ukrainian attacks failed with heavy casualties but they decided to leave because of a few reasons:
1/ The Antonivskyi Bridge and the rail bridge 1km further upsteam had been destroyed which left them to rely on pontoon bridges and resupply was difficult.
2/ The Ukrainians could potentially destroy the Nova Kharkova dam which would have flooded the entire area upon the Russian forces
3/ They withdrew to reinforce Zaporizhzhia Oblast, specifically Melitopol in order to prevent an offensive by the Ukrainians which sought to push south to the Sea of Azov and cut off the land bridge to Crimea.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/putins-fleeing-troops-bomb-dam-28473186
The Kherson City withdrawl was successful, the Ukrainian attack on Melitopol was defended with heavy Ukrainian losses and is now reinforced, which will make further attempts to take it difficult.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 1 January 2023 8:26:50 AM
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The northern part of Ukraine is more or less frozen, where the souther part is still soft and sludgy, which has prevented any significant progress by either side.
The attacks on Kremennaya and Svatove were defended; again with heavy losses upon the Ukrainians and the Russians have been shelling Lyman.

The recurring missile attacks on Ukrainian electrical infrastructure has slowly been exposing all of their air defense systems (S300, BUK, Iris T, NASAMS, ATACMS etc) and missile storage locations - leading to attacks upon them and their missile defense which is slowly being completely destroyed.
Once the Ukrainian air defense is completely knocked out the Russians will resume heavy bombing with Tupolev TU-22M3 from high altitude.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dW5uPGUsHU
I could tell you the current info regarding Russian military strength after mobilisation but I'd have to dig it up, but I can tell you it's significant.
Ukrainian combat capable forces now number under 190K whilst Russia now has around 540K so I'm told.
Western deliveries of weapons and ammunition is become greatly reduced, their ability to produce them is much less than the rate the Ukrainians are using them, meanwhile Russia is continuing to produce them and has stepped up production, and missile attacks have been at a greater number used.

The Ukraine Arms Drain: Now and in the Future
http://youtu.be/9wZfjd-byNk

"Any dreams of Russia taking Odesa and more of the Donbas are laughable."
- Don't be so sure.
The Russians don't want Odessa destroyed, if they do attempt to take it they will do so last of all, when Ukraine's ability to defend it has been greatly reduced.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 1 January 2023 8:59:02 AM
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With the power grid in Ukraine destroyed, troop movements which rely on electrified rail is becoming difficult. Stranded trains can come under attack. They don't have enough diesel locomotoves and have even pulled old soviet-era steam locomotives out of museums.

In the meantime the situation in Europe is becoming extremely bad.
There are strikes and protests going on in many countries.
EU blackouts inevitable – Austria
http://www.rt.com/news/568998-eu-blackouts-inevitable-energy-crisis/

Whilst they may get through this winter (somewhat doubtful) they have no prospect of getting through it next year without Russian energy.

The EU is in recession with huge inflation, and becoming de-industrialised.
Their will be more jobless people needing support.
This is leading to huge protests, which itself will put further pressure on the leadership of countries.

Russia has largely weathered the sanctions, while citizens in EU member states believe the sanctions have failed and have harmed them more they have harmed Russia.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 1 January 2023 9:14:04 AM
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According to the Brookings Institution -
While it remains difficult to predict the outcome
of the war or the impact that it may have on Putin's
time in the Kremlin, there is little doubt that the
fighting with Ukraine and its ramifications will
leave Russia diminished in significant ways.

Firstly Russia has to contend with a badly damaged military
that will take years to reconstitute.

There will be years of economic stagnation, cut off from
key high tech imports, a worsening situation with regard
to energy exports and future production. Then an alarmed,
alienated and re-arming Europe. Plus a growing political
isolation that will leave Moscow even more dependent on
its relationship with China. Although China is being out-
spoken in its criticism of nations that threaten with
nuclear weapons Russia needs to beware.

Unfortunately Putin still clings to his desire of "regaining"
Ukraine - but the costs of that for Russia mount by the
day.
Posted by Foxy, Sunday, 1 January 2023 10:06:59 AM
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The Ukrainian Ambassador to Australia is now telling us who should be able to play tennis here. That's what you get when you sob-along with a corrupt European country that has nothing to do with us and hand out military equipment to them that we cannot afford and don't have enough of to even think about defending ourselves.

Australia is dangerously positioned in relation to China, and a very long way from our natural allies. We don't need Russia against us as well.

Ukraine is not our problem.
Posted by ttbn, Sunday, 1 January 2023 10:11:05 AM
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What did the evil chicken lay?

Deviled eggs.
Posted by Foxy, Sunday, 1 January 2023 10:34:44 AM
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Hi AC,

Bakhmut has some strategic advantage for Russia if taken, but Kreminna is of far more importance as it would cut a major supply route for Russia. In any event Russia is having significant supply problems on a reduced front. Heavy equipment gets blown up with attempted advances, the wall of fire tactic of the Russian army has had limited effect, wasted precious ammunition, and has incurred significant wear and tear on the artillery. The human wave attacks of the Russians have wiped out many thousands of soldiers for little or no gain.

I suspect that the Ukrainian army will avoid frontal assaults in the short term if possible, opting instead to target supply lines and concentrations of troops, equipment and ammunition with their accurate weaponry. Better to use the weather to their advantage, and the frozen ground may allow a further counteroffensive against cold and demoralised troops deprived of supplies.

http://www.kyivpost.com/post/6158
Posted by Fester, Sunday, 1 January 2023 10:37:16 AM
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Hi Foxy,

"Although China is being out-spoken in its criticism of nations that threaten with nuclear weapons Russia needs to beware."

- Russia has simply reiterated the terms of it's own nuclear doctrine.

Also on that note, did you know that the US has itself changed the terms of it's own nuclear doctrine?

http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-04/news/biden-policy-allows-first-use-nuclear-weapons

>>Senior U.S. officials said that Biden has decided not to follow through on his 2020 pledge to declare that the sole purpose of nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear attack against the United States or its allies. Instead, he approved a version of a policy from the Obama administration that leaves open the option to use nuclear weapons not only in retaliation to a nuclear attack, but also to respond to non-nuclear threats.

Biden’s policy declares that the “fundamental role” of the U.S. nuclear arsenal is to deter a nuclear attack, but will still leave open the option that nuclear weapons could be used in “extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its allies and partners,” officials told ACT.<<

U.S. Colonel Training Zelensky Forces Accuses Soldiers of War 'Atrocities'
http://www.newsweek.com/us-colonel-training-zelensky-forces-accuses-soldiers-war-atrocities-1769784

>>After months in Ukraine training soldiers, Ret Col Andrew Milburn of @TheMozartGroup mercenary firm gets sauced on camera & spills the beans:
Ukraine is a "corrupt, f*ed-up society" run by "f*-up people"
Ukrainian soldiers "kill dudes who surrendered," commit "atrocities"<<

'Projection' is 'when you accuse others of what you're doing'.

Ukraine is also committing war crimes and Russia too is documenting them.
The loser of the war faces Nuremberg 2.0
U.S. Colonel Training Zelensky Forces Accuses Soldiers of War 'Atrocities'
http://www.newsweek.com/us-colonel-training-zelensky-forces-accuses-soldiers-war-atrocities-1769784

>>After months in Ukraine training soldiers, Ret Col Andrew Milburn of @TheMozartGroup mercenary firm gets sauced on camera & spills the beans:
Ukraine is a "corrupt, f*ed-up society" run by "f*-up people"
Ukrainian soldiers "kill dudes who surrendered," commit "atrocities"<<
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 1 January 2023 10:40:10 AM
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Hi everyone,
Sorry about doubling up on some content in the previous post.
I may now be just about all out of comments until later or possibly tomorrow,
- So if anyone replies to my comments I won't be able to respond on this thread for a while.

Hope everyone had a enjoyable NYE.
Happy New Year 2023
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 1 January 2023 10:47:31 AM
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Hi Fester,
"The human wave attacks of the Russians have wiped out many thousands of soldiers for little or no gain."
This information is coming from a Ukrainian source and is unreliable.
Watch a bit of this, I'm only 15 mins in and it's discussed.
Skip to 13mins to hear what Ukrainian govt. themselves are saying

Russia Missile Strikes, Ukraine Admits Heavy Losses, Turkey Mulls Syria Pullout, Xi Putin Friendship
http://youtu.be/WZlO8TFcbok

If you watch this one (about 20mins in total)
They talk about the fact that if Ukraine refuses to negotiate, then negotiation will become that much harder as time passes.

Lavrov scolds G7 leaders, Putin's speech signals the end of neoliberal world order
http://youtu.be/pPcX4vep_Lo

Now Lavrov has issued an ultimatum.
Russia’s Lavrov issues ultimatum to Ukraine
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-lavrov-ukraine-ultimatum-army-territory-b2252042.html

No matter what the Ukrainian or Western sourced media is saying, the information I'm getting tells a different story;
- And that is, the situation for Ukraine is not good at all.

Also I said earlier that I'd try to dig up the info on Russia combat strength.
All I know in regard to the Ukrainian side is that combat capable forces are quoted to be around 190K

Wheres on the Russian side it's this:

"The coming offensive phase of the conflict will provide a glimpse of the new Russian force that is emerging and its future capabilities. At this writing, 540,000 Russian combat forces are assembled in Southern Ukraine, Western Russia, and Belarus. The numbers continue to grow, but the numbers already include 1,000 rocket artillery systems, thousands of tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, plus 5,000 armored fighting vehicles, including at least 1,500 tanks, hundreds of manned fixed-wing attack aircraft, helicopters, and bombers. This new force has little in common with the Russian army that intervened 9 months ago on February 24, 2022."
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/washingtons-carthaginian-peace-collides-with-reality

This might be comment 8 today, so that's all for me until tomorrow.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 1 January 2023 11:44:37 AM
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AC,

You can put lipstick on a pig, but it will still be a pig.

As the saying goes, if you are not winning you a losing. I pay careful attention to the details, and what I hear matches closely with what is happening on the ground the Russian routs in Kherson and Kharkiv were not strategic retreats. The many tanks APVs and tons of ammo captured by Ukraine made Russia the largest donor of military equipment to Ukraine.

The minuscule gains by Russia towards Bakhmut with massive Russian losses are dwarfed by the Ukrainian gains towards Kreminna and Svatove. If Kremina is captured, it will cut off a major supply route to Sievierodonetsk, Lysychansk and even Bakhmut.

The Russian economy is tanking with the oil price dropping, the price cap and the EU embargo on oil and gas, Russia's revenues are drying up fast and its expenses are skyrocketing.
Posted by shadowminister, Sunday, 1 January 2023 11:49:28 AM
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Dear Ttbn,

«Ukraine is not our problem.»

Ukraine is our front line where we stop China.

Yes, regrettably as you say, Australia is dangerously positioned in relation to China and don't have enough of to even think about defending ourselves - this is why we need, like it or not, to join forces with other free people and stop the common enemy where the front is, rather than leave these few weapons we do have, which on their own are insufficient anyway, idle under our mattress.

---

Dear Critic,

«Ukrainian combat capable forces now number under 190K»

Why count only the Ukrainian troops - Europe has many more!

The Americans, yes we can forget them, no point counting their troops, but Europe on its own has millions more and Europe will fight as one to kick the invaders out.

«Once the Ukrainian air defense is completely knocked out the Russians will resume heavy bombing with Tupolev TU-22M3 from high altitude.»

Europe too has fresh air forces!

Stop thinking of Ukraine in isolation: Europe has been attacked and when it gets bad enough (including economically) Europeans will prove as brave as the Ukrainians.
Posted by Yuyutsu, Sunday, 1 January 2023 11:50:07 AM
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"Vladimir Putin's autocracy has not just wrought havoc
on Ukraine, it has wrecked Russia too. Putin's unjust
and ill conceived war has erased the gains of the last
3 decades."

"The toll on Ukrainians is far greater than on Russians
in material terms, and tragically in lives lost. Ukrainian
bravery in the face of Russian barbarism, however, has made
Ukrainians a nation of heroes, while Russians have been
rendered international pariahs unable to travel abroad
easily and suffering under the heaviest sanctions ever
imposed anywhere in world history."

" The burden of Putin's war on Ukraine will be borne by the
average Russian citizens for decades, if not longer. The
damage done to Russian society, the economy, its military,
its political development, and its international reputation
will far out live Putin."

Here are some of the ways in which Putin has managed to
ruin Russia:

http://journalofdemocracy.org/how-putins-war-in-ukraine-has-ruined-russia/
Posted by Foxy, Sunday, 1 January 2023 11:54:16 AM
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Thanks AC,

Historic events can be hotly debated for centuries afterwards, so I would think events yet to happen are far less certain.

If Russia have such huge forces ready to overwhelm Ukraine they are keeping it very well hidden from western intelligence. The Russian retreats/troop movements are accepted by both sides. I think the reduction of the front by Russia reflects the vulnerability of advancing armour to Ukrainian weaponry. With a smaller front I suspect the Russian army thought that their artillery could be a substitute for their armour, but their lack of advance suggests that the tactic has not worked so well.

I agree with you that if the Russians had enough missiles, troops and equipment they could knock out the power infrastructure and amass a force away from the Ukrainian troop concentrations. Without power the Ukrainians might not have time to mount an adequate defence.

Even as it is I think the Russian invading force a great threat to Ukraine and hope that western countries will provide the Ukrainians with all the weaponry they can in a timely fashion.

It will be interesting to see what the Ukrainians try next. Many suspect that they may try to divide the front through Melitopol. It could be a good strategy if the Ukrainians can combine the offensive with an attack on the supply line through Crimea.
Posted by Fester, Sunday, 1 January 2023 5:45:21 PM
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One more thing AC,

You mention 540,000 troops. That is about 700 battalion tactical groups, which would imply over 70,000 units of mobile hardware, including about 35,000 tanks, apcs and mobile howitzers. There were about 200 BTGs at the start of the invasion. Russia may have lost over 100 BGTs in the war so far. Where did all the extra equipment come from?

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/army-btg.htm

http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-russia-probably-lost-half-main-battle-tanks-ukraine-pentagon-2022-11
Posted by Fester, Sunday, 1 January 2023 8:35:34 PM
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Hi Fester,
When I first heard those details about Russian combat strength, it was in a video, featuring Col. Douglas MacGregor, and also on Alexander Mercouris, but as I said when I first mentioned it I'd have to go back and watch videos to find it, which might take many hours.

What I actually did yesterday to dig up those details instead was to google 'Russia 540,000' (troops) and I found that webpage yesterday (also quoting 1000 MLRS, 5000 armoured fighting vehicles inc 1500 tanks etc) that I shared late afternoon yesterday, but it wasn't my original source.
I didn't think any further about what those numbers meant, whether they were all troops headed for the front line or whether some were engineers or logistics, moving weapons for resupply etc.
- FYI, It never said 35k tanks it was 1500 I think.
If I come across the info again, likely by by MacGregor or Mercouris I'll share it with you.

I've just watched a video this morning where survivors of the attack on the Mariupol Drama Theatre are stating it wasn't a Russian airstrike as quoted by western media claiming 'Russian atrocities' it was actually the Ukrainian Armed Forces themselves.
Based on these eyewitness accounts, they set explosives inside the theatre where there was around 2000 men, women, many kids and elderly.

What REALLY Happened At The Mariupol Drama Theatre.
http://youtu.be/gkqRy4lvcnU?t=1676

I do remember a story early in the conflict where Ukrainian armed forces were using a nursing home with disabled people as a firing position.
http://www.voanews.com/a/un-russia-and-ukraine-share-blame-for-nursing-home-attack-/6652481.html
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/ukraine-shares-blame-nursing-home-attack/
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/07/19/zrjy-j19.html

Incidentally this occurred in the days just prior to the events at the drama theatre.

While Russia has been fighting a war against the Ukrainian defenders, they the Ukrainians have always been fighting a war of propaganda.

Even events at Bucha are said to be fabricated.
Whilst many people died from Russian artillery, people found with hands ziptied and bullets in the back of the head in mass graves were not victims of Russian forces, but Ukrainian special units who first went in and went door to door shooting suspected collaborators.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Monday, 2 January 2023 8:24:37 AM
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Armchair Critic,

Give it a rest.

You're reputation on the forum is not looking credible.
Posted by Foxy, Monday, 2 January 2023 9:50:11 AM
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Hi Fester,
I mainly just watch youtube videos by a handful of different content creators.
I don't really know too much about the difference between military formations of Soviet / Russian v's Western / NATO.
I read some of your article, (I'll read a bit more later, it's a lot to take in) what I can add here is that I'm told that Russians traditionally put their Generals and Colonels nearer alongside their troops on the front line, where as the West does not do this.
Apparently, Russian troops generally expect their Generals to more or less direct events on the battlefront alongside them.
In regards to your Business Insider article, I did see footage of where at least 1 T-90 tank was lost.
Off memory I'm not sure if it lost a track and was abandoned because it was in the line of fire and holding up a line of other tanks.
Maybe it was this below, I'm not sure.

Setback To Putin Russia’s Most Advanced T-90M Tank Destroyed Days After Deployment In Ukraine
http://youtu.be/P7z5AAuNJMk

Hi Foxy,
I hope you watch the Mariupol Drama Theatre video above, to understand how your 'Get Putin!' cold-war hangover mentality is helping to continue this war.
These acts of fabricating events of alledged 'Russian atrocities' are meant precisely for people such as yourself who will then demand that 'something must be done' which then leads to continued western support for a continuation of the war.
This is the kind of thing that lead to Zelensky being given an Oscar by Sean Penn.
Great acting, great movie script.
You'd sit back and say 'Interesting times' right?
It's not interesting, it's horrible, and all of it could've been avoided.

You want to know why I don't support the actions of these US neoconservatives and their threats, blackmail, sanctions, regime changes and military interventions?
Because it's an 'End justifies the means' mentality.
- And that's the mentality of terrorists.

Meanwhile we've further evidence that Western nations never intended to honour the Minsk agreements.
Hollande confirms Merkel’s remark Minsk agreements let Kiev build up military muscle
http://tass.com/world/1558075
Posted by Armchair Critic, Monday, 2 January 2023 10:01:42 AM
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"You're reputation on the forum is not looking credible."
Pffft. Grow up. [Rolls eyes]

I don't give a shite what other people think of me.
I'll stand up for what I think is right nonetheless.
I'm not like our gutless pink tie wearing leaders who are begging for a pat on the back from their international buddies.
- "There's a good boy"

Who made you the forums ministry of truth and thought police warden?
Or was it just self appointed?
Posted by Armchair Critic, Monday, 2 January 2023 10:10:00 AM
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Armchair Critic,

You can roll your eyes all you want. It
doesn't change the fact that you're being judged
by your ignorance of the facts. And obviously you
don't care. However I am trying to be kind - by
drawing your attention to how you're being perceived.

Perhaps the following might make you understand the
situation just a little better.

Here's a Ukrainian Lullaby for you:

My beautiful child go ahead and cry
Mama will calm you with a lullaby
But even a kiss on both your cheeks
Won't stop the bombs falling in our streets

Papa's out fighting for our liberty
Doing his best so we can stay free
To speak our own language on shore and sea
And force the invaders to let us be

Your parents want you to be proud
And grow up Ukrainian and not cowed
The invaders as brothers we won't tolerate
When their bombs, tanks, and missiles try us to negate

Their invasion of our precious land
Is something those people don't understand
That we'll fight them with our very last breath
Even if it means our nation's death

We'd rather all die in liberty
Then go down enslaved in history
Parasites like them will never win
Our Ukrainian people will never give in!
Posted by Foxy, Monday, 2 January 2023 10:41:33 AM
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We are a sovereign nation
Whom Stalin tried to starve
He tried to stamp out nationalism
Over 4 million died

Many still remember the bodies of the dead
A repeat of history is what Ukrainians dread
Putin's just like Stalin - determined to win
To allow that to happen would be the biggest sin!
Posted by Foxy, Monday, 2 January 2023 10:52:52 AM
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Dear Foxy,

There is a war going in the Ukraine. It is due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That is a fact. There are accounts of atrocities. The accounts may or may not be facts. Such charges have been made in past wars, and the accounts were seen to be dubious later. Since most countries sympathize with Ukraine accounts of Russian atrocities are believable. They are believable but not necessarily true.

Past wars have been characterized by accounts of atrocities. The blowing up of the Maine and the blame cast on the Spanish for it rallied US support for the Spanish-American War.

https://sites.smith.edu/fys169-f19/2019/12/06/the-u-s-s-maine-disaster-yellow-journalism-at-its-finest/

The above is a reference to an account of how US newspapers treated the sinking of the Maine. It contains:

“In 1974, a team of naval historians reevaluated the explosion of the Maine in order to definitively determine if an external mine had caused the blast. These experts studied archives, official reports, and wreckage photographs, even requesting documentation of foreign ship explosions to compare with the Maine. They determined that the source of the blast had actually originated from within the vessel. In the years following, computer analysis of heat transfer indicated a high likelihood that the proximity of a coal bunker to a magazine of ammunition catalyzed a chain reaction of ignition large enough to destroy the Maine.”

In WW1 the Bryce report told of atrocities committed by the Germans in Belgium and rallied support against the Hun.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committee_on_Alleged_German_Outrages

It contains:

“The Bryce Report, subsidised and circulated worldwide by the British government, was an irresponsible misuse of judicial procedure that moved Britain more deeply into official involvement in the most morally questionable kinds of propaganda.”

During wars there are atrocities. Modern wars are characterized by accusations in the media of atrocities committed by the side the media condemns. Our media and government usually condemn the Russians. I believe atrocities have been committed. I doubt that all accounts of atrocities are true and doubt that the Russians are guilty of all of those that are true.

We can learn from history to doubt.
Posted by david f, Monday, 2 January 2023 11:15:06 AM
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Hi AC,

When the Russians invaded they had a huge material advantage over the Ukrainians. Equipment and ordinance were in such short supply that I doubt the Ukrainians would have used it to level Mariupol and a theatre full of civilians. Further, how likely is it that the Russian army would be influenced by accusations of atrocities? To my knowledge the Russian army has never admitted to atrocities or acts of terrorism, so why would it be different in Ukraine? The Ukrainians are still very short of ammunition and equipment and use it as effectively as possible, which might be one reason why you see military targets and not apartments or hospitals being attacked on Russian soil. Another reason might be that the Ukrainian forces have moral constraints.

Looking at the performance of the Ukrainian army, they seem to have a very effective strategy. Their accurate weaponry and ability to target supplies, supply infrastructure and troops well behind the front has made it tough for the Russians, and was probably a major reason that the September counteroffensive was so successful. Knocking out the Kerch Bridge would make it much easier to take the south, but as Russia seems to be losing the war of attrition it will get increasingly difficult for them to maintain the front as the conflict continues.
Posted by Fester, Monday, 2 January 2023 12:41:59 PM
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Hey david f,

“You furnish the pictures and I’ll furnish the war”

http://medium.com/covilian-military-intelligence-group/you-furnish-the-pictures-and-ill-furnish-the-war-67de6c0e1210

I don't even need to look this one up.
Years later they sent divers to explore the wreck.
It was found that the explosion occurred from the inside not the outside, as the blast blew outwards of the hull.
I'm not saying it was deliberate, (I don't know) but it wasn't a mine.
FYI, I haven't read the above article.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Monday, 2 January 2023 1:31:52 PM
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Hey Fester,
"I doubt the Ukrainians would have used it to level Mariupol and a theatre full of civilians..."

Why?
Why would you doubt it?

Either the babooshkas are lying, or Ukraine did in fact do it.
A good investigative journalist wouldn't just rely on one persons testimony, they'd get several and corroborate the story.
- To find out the truth.

All we have is reporters in the West and no-one even goes there to find out.
At least I'm watching accounts sourced from the front instead of watching Pro-Ukrainian government sourced puff-pieces.

I don't know what the truth is, I wasn't there;
But based upon other accounts of other events, I think on face value it's a likely possibility they're telling the truth.

"Further, how likely is it that the Russian army would be influenced by accusations of atrocities?"
More importantly, why would they want to deliberately kill the people they're claiming to liberate?
- Unless of course the Ukrainians were using at as a firing position, but even then it was clearly marked (for drone surveillance) as having children inside.

"Another reason might be that the Ukrainian forces have moral constraints."
I wonder whether you truly believe the Ukrainian army and leadership are morally good decent people or whether you have cognitive dissonance and can't perceive the idea that people are capable of such horrific things.

"Looking at the performance of the Ukrainian army, they seem to have a very effective strategy."
- Clearly based upon the things I've shared with all of you, there are different accounts of the current situation.

"...a major reason that the September counteroffensive was so successful"
- The Ukrainians have failed to make any significant gains where the Russian chose to stay and fight, and did not make a tactical withdrawl themselves, and I've already gone to lengths to explain all of this.
When you suggest things to me that I find are believeable, like Russians fleeing in Melitopol, I say so and acknowledge it.
But when I say things even in the face of eyewitness accounts, you think it not credible.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Monday, 2 January 2023 1:37:14 PM
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"Knocking out the Kerch Bridge would make it much easier to take the south, but as Russia seems to be losing the war of attrition it will get increasingly difficult for them to maintain the front as the conflict continues."

Yeah, but only if you support them using an innocent dupe to drive a truckload of fertilizer over it.
http://thegrayzone.com/2022/10/10/ukrainian-kerch-bridge/

Any pre-made Ukrainian postage stamps come to mind here?
- Propaganda war.

I look at the propaganda war and the difference in what the different sides are saying.
Seems to me the West has run out of sanctions, military options and the only thing they have left to cling to is the idea that maybe they can create a situation where Putin will be undermined and removed by other Russians.

Which is a good reason to tell all this lies and propaganda.
Keep up there own (barely existent) troop morale.

Sell the war to less informed western citizens to buy their complicity.
And hope that by some miracle all these lies will be spread inside Russia and lead to regime change and Putins ousting.

That's all they've got.
In the meantime they will continue to send teenagers, elderly and handicapped Ukrainian conscripts into the meat-grinder.
The whole thing is unsettling, and the people who are winning are corrupt Ukrainian leadership selling off weapons on the black market and warmongering politicians from Washington getting kickbacks from the Military Industrial Complex.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Monday, 2 January 2023 1:48:42 PM
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Dear David F.,

Thank you for your insightful post. We can and should
learn from history. In this particular war however -
the war could end at any moment if Putin decided to end
it. It does not look like he's going to do that - unless
Ukraine gives him what he wants. Russia invaded Ukraine.
If Russia chose to stop fighting in Ukraine and left -
it would be the end of the war.

However if Ukraine chose to stop fighting and give up, it
would be the end of Ukraine.
Posted by Foxy, Monday, 2 January 2023 3:35:05 PM
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Hi AC,

Amnesty International investigated and thought the Mariupol theatre bombing a Russian war crime, but we are just the peanut gallery trying to make sense of things.

If you want to do the job properly as the Russians do you store your ammunition under the barracks. That might have killed about 600 and destroyed the ammunition, but it wasn't a war crime. Apparently there were so many dead that some fell off the trucks that were sent in to cart them away. Lots of spies in occupied territory ready to tip off the Ukrainians.

http://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1609661145366790147
Posted by Fester, Monday, 2 January 2023 4:41:56 PM
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Hi Fester,
I see the details of the strike are shown on Ukrinform.
http://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3645029-about-400-occupiers-eliminated-in-makiivka-stratcom.html

The Nexta Live translation there says:

"More and more details on covering the base of the occupiers in Makeyevka. There were at least 600 people of their personnel. As it turned out, the building of the local vocational school was fired upon, where the superminds decided to place hundreds of newly arrived “mobiles”. 'Voyenkors' and other data noise are furious: there was not even a shelter! They call the decision to deploy soldiers a crime.
It is noteworthy that it arrived almost exactly at midnight - the New Year for the invaders never came."

I think the telegram channel the tweet you linked goes to a Pro-Russian telegram channel, but I havent heard it mentioned anywhere on the youtube channels I watch yet.

War is a nasty business, right?
If true, (and I'm not saying it isn't) I'd agree that it was pretty foolish putting that much troop concentration together on NYE within HIMARS range.
What were they doing, having a damn party?

"Lots of spies in occupied territory ready to tip off the Ukrainians."

Yes, I've heard it mentioned that Russians are trying to find these people.
- I'm not sure how they'd go about it though.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Monday, 2 January 2023 7:08:38 PM
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This is worth a read.
The War in Ukraine Is a Bloodbath. Could It End in 2023?
http://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/the-war-in-ukraine-is-a-bloodbath-could-it-end-in-2023/
Posted by Armchair Critic, Monday, 2 January 2023 7:11:39 PM
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Dear Foxy,

I agree. If Ukraine gave up it would be the end of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian war is not only a war for the survival of Ukraine or just Putin's War. It is also a proxy war between the US, NATO and Russia. Most of the casualties in the war are Ukrainians and Russians not Americans or members of NATO. A Russian takeover would mean the end of Ukraine's democracy and the continuation of suffering under occupation. It would also mean the end of suffering under war. Ukraine is suffering, and the Russians fighting in Ukraine are also suffering. There is the danger of a wider war. If Ukraine gave up it would mean the end of Ukraine. It would also mean the end of the proxy war.

If NATO and the US had agreed that Ukraine would have neutral status the war could possibly have been entirely avoided.

I was against the US war in Vietnam. Many who supported the war thought the victory of North Vietnam would mean the country becoming a communist state. They were right, and I was right. The cost of keeping Vietnam from being a communist state was too great. What is the cost of keeping an independent Ukraine?

There are signs of Putin’s Russia unraveling. Dissidents and men who want to avoid military service are leaving. The end of Ukraine does not mean its end forever. Russia may continue to unravel, and Ukraine may regain its freedom without the trauma of war.
Posted by david f, Monday, 2 January 2023 7:18:33 PM
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Dear Foxy,

National consciousness is powerful. Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have been part of Russia for many years. They all are now independent nations and have the feel of independent nations. Israel has been under foreign occupation for almost two thousand years. As the occupation of Poland did not mean the end of Poland the occupation of Ukraine will mean the end of the Ukraine government but not the end of Ukraine. My late father-in-law was Russian. He hated the Ukrainians who he called Ukies. The war may be one factor keeping Russia together if many other Russians feel the way he did. The end of the war in Ukraine with a Russian victory may hasten the end of Russia. The British victory in WW2 saw the end of that great empire.
Posted by david f, Monday, 2 January 2023 8:13:20 PM
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Dear David,

As long as my body holds out - I still have dreams of
travel. My wish is to be able to travel to eastern
Europe and walk in the footprints of my ancestors.
I have so many questions that I'd like answered.

Anyhow, thank you for your insights. As always they are
appreciated.
Posted by Foxy, Monday, 2 January 2023 8:42:58 PM
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Hi Fester,
I saw that by last night the strike in Makiivka (or Makeyevka) had its own Wikipedia page.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Makiivka_military_quarters_shelling
It was also discussed on a few YouTube channels I watch below:

Russia Drone Strikes, Losses in Makeyevka, Advances in Zaporozhye; Lavrov Hints At Offensive
http://youtu.be/vpgpsEEgu_o

Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 02.01.2023
http://youtu.be/50w7VgXfe6c

Reports differ from both sides about the amount of Russians killed.
Ukraine suggests 400 KIA and up to 300 casualties, where as the Russian Ministry of Defense has stated only 63 KIA.
http://tass.com/defense/1558589

In my opinion this difference illustrates one sides willingness to talk up an event, and an opposing sides willingness to play it down.
All things being equal, the true number is likely somewhere in between.

Also I'd like to bring up the question of legality in Putin's war.
This paper discusses many of the issues, but I also think that just by it's title it has some bias in making some possibly incorrect assumptions about Russian intentions.

Distorting Fundamental Norms of International Law to Resurrect the Soviet Union: The International Law Context of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40802-022-00219-9

My question, or concerns relate to internal and external self determination, specifically in regards to admissions by western aligned leaders (Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande) that the Minsk agreements were never intended to be honoured, and that it was merely a ploy by the West to buy time to build up Ukraines military.

The point I wish to make is that Putin first tried to resolve the issue with internal self-determination, but the Ukrainian military continued to inflict harm of the citizens of Donbass, who initially never wanted any part of the country post Maidan. The Ukrainian government continued to attack and inflict harm upon them (which in my opinion voided any right to rule over them) and which ultimately lead to a situation where the only course of action was external self-determination.

Point being, I think it's fair to say that Putin did take steps to try to avoid the eventual outcome by first pursuing internal self-determination, which was not honoured, and was never intended to be.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 9:38:45 AM
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Hi AC,

As I said, we are just the peanut gallery and our speculation means little. Russia has form, as does Putin, for staging events to use as justification, and we could argue about such thing forever and resolve nothing. That is why what matters to me are measurable outcomes. Hence, in viewing the claims of Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan of how they were forced into conflict by an international conspiracy, I am more interested in the conflict and its aftermath and ask such questions as "Are they better places today?".

On looking at the Ukraine/Russia war, I think that Russia had problems invading Kyiv by being unable to mobilise. Russia made use of its material advantage in the south, especially with its artillery and ordinance. Ukraine's acquisition of more accurate weapons whittled away the Russian force to the extent that they could no longer support the front line, which I believe is why they lost so much ground in September. It is clear that Ukraine is targeting troop, equipment and ammunition stores effectively. I look on with interest, but I get the impression that the Ukrainian strategy is one of holding the line, targeting supplies, carrying out novel missions as weapon availability permits (e.g. Kerch, Moskva, Engels), and conducting offensives if the Russian forces become sufficiently depleted.
Posted by Fester, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 10:17:07 AM
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AC, David f,

I think that Russia's war crimes are well documented by third parties and are not subjective or conjecture. Russia's deliberate attacks on civilian areas are war crimes that Putin actively supports.

In 1991 all of Ukraine voted overwhelmingly to leave the USSR including Crimea, Donbas, Luhansk etc. The USSR supported this and when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons Russia guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity. There is no legal basis whatsoever for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Neither Crimea nor the Donbas were majority Russian, and the last reliable poll indicated that they did not want to be a part of Russia. Russia's justification seems to be mostly about hurt feelings.

The Ukrainian strikes on Russian headquarters and barracks seem to have killed nearly 1000 Russian soldiers in the last 24 hours and destroyed a number of ammo dumps. Kreminna is now surrounded on 3 sides and facing massive accurate artillery fire. Most of their command structure has already run away.
Posted by shadowminister, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 10:50:01 AM
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"I think that Russia's war crimes are well documented by third parties and are not subjective or conjecture."
By who OSCE?
OSCE were proven to be actively helping the Ukrainian side, demonstrating bias, their reports are unreliable and slanted.

"Russia's deliberate attacks on civilian areas are war crimes that Putin actively supports."

I'd agree with you, but only if they ARE deliberate attacks on civilians.
1/ If you place military assets amongst civilian populations this itself is a war crime, and then becomes a legitimate military target. (Ukraine has been shown to do this, and is thus using civilians as human shields which certainly is a war crime)
2/ If you fire a missile or launch a drone at a military target, and air=defense intercepts said missile or drone and one or both objects fall in a civilian area causing deaths or casualties, this does not amount to deliberate targeting of civilians.
- When Russia has targeted hotels or residential buildings there's no way that either you or I can prove that military personal were not present.

"In 1991 all of Ukraine voted overwhelmingly to leave the USSR including Crimea, Donbas, Luhansk etc. The USSR supported this and when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons Russia guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity."

Yes, but this was also done under an agreement that NATO not move Eastwards.
http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early
The US lied and went back on it's word, and further NATO expansion resulted in a legitimate security issue for Russia, which Putin himself pointed out years prior to the current war at the NATO conference in Budapest in 2008.

"There is no legal basis whatsoever for Russia's invasion of Ukraine."
NATO itself created the precedent in Kosovo.
http://youtu.be/oG2YaoxZzEo
- The US does not respect others security concerns which it expects for itself, and I refer to the Monroe Doctrine.

"Neither Crimea nor the Donbas were majority Russian, and the last reliable poll indicated that they did not want to be a part of Russia."
- That's not true and maps prove it, you 're trying to argue these people support their own persecution.
http://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4?t=37
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 11:23:53 AM
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[Cont.]
"The Ukrainian strikes on Russian headquarters and barracks seem to have killed nearly 1000 Russian soldiers in the last 24 hours and destroyed a number of ammo dumps."
You're speculating, taking one sides version over the others.

"Kreminna is now surrounded on 3 sides and facing massive accurate artillery fire."
- It's likely the Ukrainians will continue an offensive on this town in the coming days and weeks.
Based on the situation in regards to the weather, both sides have a small window with which to attack the other beginning in a few days (January 7) and which will last for 3 to 4 weeks after which the weather will once again constrain either side from any serious actions.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 11:29:17 AM
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Steve Rosenberg is the BBC's Russia Editor stationed
in Moscow. He gives a very interesting insight into
the Russian TV coverage of this year's Festivities.
Especially New Year's Eve which he says was a "strange"
mixture of "We want peace," "But peace will only come
after our victory."

According to Rosenberg this was not a "normal" new
year's eve. But as he points out - "Normal" disappeared
10 months ago when Russia launched its full scale
invasion of Ukraine.

He also says that there was nothing "normal" about President
Putin's annual New-Year address to the Russian people.
We're told that the President usually stands alone
outside the Kremlin while making his speech.
Not this year. This year President Putin had
standing behind him men and women in combat uniforms.

The President used his address to promote the Kremlin's
"alternative reality." that this conflict was one in which
Russia's the hero and Ukraine and the West are the villains.

Sound familiar?

And again the old chestnut of "neo-Nazis," was brought up by
Putin when he said:

"For years, Western elites hypocritically assured us of
their peaceful intentions, but in fact, they encouraged
the neo-Nazis in every possible way."

" Defending our Motherland is the sacred duty we owe to our
ancestors and descendants."

The irony here is that as Rosenberg says - "When the Kremlin
talks about defending our Motherland keep in mind that it was
Russia that invaded Ukraine. Not the other way around."

Another peculiarity is the Russian President's claim that
his country is benefiting enormously from the dramatic events
of 2022.

"It was a year of important steps towards Russia's sovereignty."
"We laid the foundations for our common future, our true
independence."

The assertion that Russia is fighting for its sovereignty
and independence is peculiar.

Russia has long been a sovereign independent nation. It seems
that Putin's goal is to divide Russians into us and them. Into
those who support his "special military operation" and those who
don't.

cont'd
Posted by Foxy, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 12:06:09 PM
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cont'd

"It was a year that put many things in their place and
drew a clear line between courage and heroism on the
one hand and betrayal and cowardice on the other."

Rosenberg says that -

"On 2023 we're likely to see the Kremlin drawing this
line more clearly. The Russian authorities have mobilized
all the country's resources for the "special military
operation."

"There is no reason for debate or discussion. The
government expects the public to rally round and to
support the President. Those who don't will be made to
feel they're betraying the Motherland."

Hitler would be so proud.
Posted by Foxy, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 12:12:22 PM
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AC,

As far as the numbers of dead are concerned in the one attack the Russians acknowledge that there were up to 700 people in the building at the time of the attack and also that there was ammunition stored in the building.

The photos of the large multistory building after the attack was that the entire building was completely destroyed leaving only a pile of rubble. That anyone survived was a miracle. The Ukrainian estimates were between 400 and 600 were killed. The figure that Russia gave of 63 is a joke. Within a span of 24 hours, Ukraine also HIMARSed multiple other Russian barracks, headquarters and ammunition dumps.

Between partisans on the ground, US satellites and the HIMARS accuracy of 1m the Russian penchant for still closely grouping their men and munition is either stupidity or incompetence.
Posted by shadowminister, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 1:37:29 PM
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Hi Foxy,
Regards Putins speech:
One thing that annoys me with western media, why don't they just link to the source and afford the reader the ability to make up their own mind about it, instead of relying on their 'opinion' of it, including cherry picked parts that can be taken out of context.
- Even your 'opinion of someone elses opinion', have misquoted parts, and thus now allowed those parts in the full context of what was said.
The Kremlin even has English translations, no need for the reader to guess, link below.
Why comment about something you haven't watched or read?
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70315
Furthermore for one, you're relying on a government funded service,
- of a government is party to the conflict.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediaaction/about/funding
- Secondly, funded by USAID, Bill and Melinda Gates, UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, European Union and others.
Thirdly, 'Censorship in British Broadcasting: The Government's Role'
http://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1285&context=uhp_theses
- And that's before we even get to the author.

If you want a less bias commentary on his speech, as well as the questions you raised answered, try this instead.
http://youtu.be/f9RdjkPjjQA?t=526

Hi shadowminister,
"...Russians acknowledge that there were up to 700 people in the building at the time of the attack..."
- Do you please have a link or source to that info?
"The photos of the large multistory building after the attack was that the entire building was completely destroyed leaving only a pile of rubble."
- I haven't seen the photos but yes I'm told the place was more or less completely vapourised.
"Between partisans on the ground, US satellites and the HIMARS accuracy of 1m the Russian penchant for still closely grouping their men and munition is either stupidity or incompetence."
- Agreed, no arguments from me there.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 2:17:48 PM
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The Ukrainian army kept its troops in barracks until it lost over 100 in a cruise missile attack. The Russian army has no choice: If they put the troops in small groups they have a problem with desertion. I also read that there was warning of the Himars strike, but the Russian command structure meant they could not make a decision to save themselves without the approval of their commanding officer: The strike came before the call was returned.

What is awful is putting your troops and ordinance together, indicative of the value the Russian army places on its troops.
Posted by Fester, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 2:58:22 PM
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Armchair Critic,

I see that you are still buying into Putin's
"alternative reality," concerning the war.

I did link into the Kremlin source.
I did read the entire Putin speech.
BBC's Steve Rosenberg did an excellent
summation. That's why I used it.

I have no further interest in communicating with you.
I'm sure there's plenty of kindred spirits on this
forum who you can talk to
Posted by Foxy, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 3:41:41 PM
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Hi Foxy,
"I see that you are still buying into Putin's 'alternative reality,' concerning the war."
- No offense, but I'm starting to think your mind exists in an alternate reality.

"I did link into the Kremlin source."
- No you didn't, you've added 3 links on this thread, one to a BBC article but it's not Rosenbergs, one to a foreignpolicy.com article you had 3 goes at, and another to an article at journalofdemocracy.org
We can all see what you've posted.

"I did read the entire Putin speech."
- I find this extremely doubtful considering your entire comment came from Rosenbergs piece, here:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64138731
- With no mention of anything else whatsoever in Putin's ACTUAL speech.

I'm thinking 'liar', and 'liar' but I don't want to say it.
Oops.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 4:44:46 PM
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"What is awful is putting your troops and ordinance together, indicative of the value the Russian army places on its troops."
- Lives just thrown away.

This whole damn war is awful Fester.
And sadly there'll be plenty more lives taken needlessly before it's over.
- And this is why I don't support western sponsored coups.

Between NATO and Russia, neither side can afford to concede.
This one here seen smiling has more blood on her hands that any other.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Victoria_Nuland_2021.jpg

To all the mum's out there on both sides of this conflict;
Whose boys will never be comimg home, you all have my deepest sympathies.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 5:03:35 PM
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"This whole damn war is awful"

Well said, AC. I get the impression that the Russians are nearing a point of not being able to sustain their war machine. I also have a suspicion that the people in the occupied territories wont be all that sad if the Russians are forced out. Tipping off the Ukrainians as to where the Russians are bunking will hasten their departure.
Posted by Fester, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 6:57:53 PM
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"I get the impression that the Russians are nearing a point of not being able to sustain their war machine."
- Nar not yet I don't think, a lot of the general narrative is just bs I think, every time Russia launches missiles some spokesperson comes out and says Russia only has enough missiles for one more strike.
- They've been saying that for 6+ months.

Sometimes you have to read between the lines
NATO chief fears Ukraine war could broaden into wider conflict
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/nato-chief-fears-ukraine-war-could-broaden-into-wider-conflict

How is this going to happen if Russia is going to run out of weapons next week?

Peace May Be a Long Way Off in Ukraine in 2023
http://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/30/russia-ukraine-war-peace-2023-putin-zelensky/

How is this going to happen if Russia is going to run out of weapons next week?

The answer is pretty simple.
They're lying, it's war propaganda to make you think Russia is on the verge of collapse.
To boost Ukrainian troop morale, keep the western citizens thinking Putin is just one day away from losing,
- and try to undermine him and force his ousting by his fellow Russians.
In a war, all that matters is winning, and the first casualty of war is the truth.

We can both be optimistic that it will be all over tomorrow with each our respective sides winning, a clear decisive end that stops any further bloodshed,
- but likely it will be a long drawn out conflict that may even stretch into next year as well.

Putin and Xi both called each other 'Dear Friend' just the other day.
Russia and China are allies against the West, and they both consider themselves to be on the right side of history - against the West.
This thing could get a whole lot worse yet, and probably will.

I have a feeling Putin will start taking out bridges across the Dnieper next, and maybe even wipe out the electrical grid permanently.
- As well as put an end to Ukraine's missile defense.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 8:52:06 PM
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Interesting. Thanks AC

"the first casualty of war is the truth"

Thank goodness for that. If it weren't so there would be nothing in dispute, and I at least would be very disappointed. It is much more fun trying to see behind the lies.

What Russia does have is heaps of artillery, but I think their heavy use of it at least can create logistical challenges in supplying enough ammunition. I think this because the Russian advance has stalled, and they seem to be using human waves of conscripts (no generals amongst them AC) to try and locate the Ukrainian gun emplacements. There could be other reasons as well, like longer range and better accuracy of the weapons that the Ukrainians now possess, but it would appear that the Russians are being a little less extravagant than they were some months ago.

As for the precision munitions, the use of drones, deadly as they are, makes me think that the cruise missiles aren't quite as plentiful. Adaptation is a factor as well, and I think that the Ukrainians are getting better at shooting down the drones. But if Putin has as many missiles as you claim AC then I would agree that he would keep targeting the electrical grid.
Posted by Fester, Tuesday, 3 January 2023 10:23:09 PM
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Armchair Critic,

I do not lie.

But I get it. You believe Putin.
Not me.

Fair enough.
Posted by Foxy, Wednesday, 4 January 2023 6:18:59 AM
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AC,

A Russian Blog linked to the Wagner group (grey zone) claims that 500 were killed. A former FSB agent and Blogger Igor Girkin claimed that many hundreds were killed. Even official numbers have risen to 89. And this doesn't even include the other barracks attacked within 24 hours in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Ukraine has mastered the art of killing Russians. Between drones, HIMARS, etc.
Posted by shadowminister, Wednesday, 4 January 2023 2:36:27 PM
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Here are the risks of negotiating an end to the war
with Putin:

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/88574
Posted by Foxy, Wednesday, 4 January 2023 2:40:48 PM
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Hi Foxy,
"I do not lie."
Now you're lying about not lying.
Nice job doubling down on stupid.
"I did link into the Kremlin source."
- Well show me your post where you added a link to the Kremlin source and I'll apologise.
Let me give you a hot tip, the link starts with http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news
We can all check everyone comment history, we can all read all the threads.
If you did, we'd all be able to see it and others would be defending you and telling me that you did add the link you said you did and that badgering you is unfair.
But you can't because you didn't and you're lying, and lying about not lying.
- And you dare talk about my credibility...

Hi shadowminister
I've heard Russian blog Telegram channels have been quoting the actual calculated number will be around 165 - 168.
(Whether that's accurate or not who really knows)
- Still more under the rubble.
I did say earlier that the true number would likely be somewhere in between.

Meanwhile there's strikes from the Russian side which go mostly unreported in western News
http://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/01/03/druzhkivka-railway-station-struck-two-himars-destroyed-russia/

Plenty of soldiers are losing their lives on both sides every day.
It's all horrible, but just a part of a war which was completely avoidable.
And the continuation of this war isn't even really about Ukraine.
It's a proxy war by two nuclear powers on the territory of a non-nuclear power.
The US fights for its Rules-Based-Order 'global bully status' and to retain its western hegemony.

Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 03.01.2023
http://youtu.be/A8xmYcKrJvQ

The question is what is the US going to do when Ukraine loses?
Posted by Armchair Critic, Thursday, 5 January 2023 2:38:41 AM
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AC,

According to Russian sources, Russia has been able to destroy nearly 80 HIMARS systems which are nearly double what has been provided to Ukraine. And in spite of this 18 Russian bases/ ammo dumps were hit by HIMARS yesterday alone and there is zero evidence of even one destroyed HIMARS system. The clue should be in the Bulgarian article which claims the destruction of a HIMARS installation considering that the whole purpose of the system is that it is not installed anywhere. The chances are that the railway station was just another civilian target.

Articles suggest that the next batch of HIMARS rockets from Raytheon will come with a range of 100 miles or 150km bringing much of occupied Crimea into range.
Posted by shadowminister, Thursday, 5 January 2023 4:38:48 AM
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Hi Armchair Critic,

I refer to many sources in my research.
I don't cite all of them in my posts.
I cite the ones that I feel are suitable.
And in this case I preferred a BBC editor's
take stationed in Moscow on Putin's annual
speech rather than giving more of Putin's
propaganda. Obviously that's difficult for
you to understand. You prefer the propaganda
and have the cheek to call me a liar - when
anyone can access Putin's speech for themselves
on the web for themselves.

In any case few of us are buying the bulldust that
you and Putin are trying to sell. And if you think I'm
a liar - I'm not going to stoop to your level and
tell you what that makes you.
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 5 January 2023 5:34:12 AM
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AC wrote: "I've never been to Russia, so you would know far more about things than me and maybe you can help me understand things more."

That you have no understanding of the Russian people is clear, given many of the views you've expressed here.

But you had admonished Foxy's ignorance and urged her to ...

"....consider a holiday in St. Petersburg.
Go and meet the people, talk to them.
Do yourself the favour of getting a wide range of opinions."

Yet you base all your views on highly filtered views put out by a selection of your favoured You-Tubers. That was really the point behind my post.

This conceit that one can get a complete overview via partisan snippets of propaganda really is the path to disappointment.

BTW, don't consider a visit to St Petersburg just now. Westerners really are not particularly welcome at the moment. My several friends there have urged me to stay away for a while, although I did make a visit to the Russian far-east in October.
Posted by mhaze, Thursday, 5 January 2023 5:56:29 AM
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Hi mhaze,

If my body holds out - as I've said time and time
again - I would one day like to visit not only St Petersburg
but many other places as well and walk in the footsteps
of my Russian ancestors. My maternal gran was Russian and I
grew up very much with Russian culture.
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 5 January 2023 6:41:18 AM
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Hey mhaze,
"Yet you base all your views on highly filtered views put out by a selection of your favoured You-Tubers."
I may not have been there, but most of them have been.

One of my Western YouTube content creators lives in St Petersberg.
http://youtu.be/c7iW9kckpTQ
- I never say anything without a basis of merit.

"Westerners really are not particularly welcome at the moment."
I guess that's not all that surprising, all things considered.
I do respect your opinion, you'd clearly have more insight about such things than I would.
But I still don't see how this changes the basis of my arguments in regards to my distain for western foreign policy, neoconservative wars, western sanctions as a form of collective punishment and US orchestrated regime changes.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Thursday, 5 January 2023 8:35:30 AM
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I'll tell you what is impressive though.
- That Russians rebuilt 5 story apartment buildings in the middle of a war in 61 days.
These people could show us how to fix our housing problems.

The Mayor of Mariupol - Rebuilding A Destroyed And Devastated City.
http://youtu.be/MuGKzZ_FzS8?t=240

Just some further information here;
The YouTube content creator who lives in St Petersberg, is present in the above meeting with the Mayor of Mariupol, and the Russian interpreter is the same person mentioned in the earlier linked videos about 'a liberal anti-war protester' who went to Donbass.

In Donetsk With Masha Lelyanova, Our Russian Interpreter
http://youtu.be/Xm0n2xID754

I took a LIBERAL, ANTI WAR Protester to see the truth in Donbass, and THIS Happened!
http://youtu.be/0OysQ7yQl_o

At least I actually watch what is happening there as opposed to Western Ukrainian Govt sourced views,
- and of reporters who have largely ignored the situation there for the last 8+ years, and who won't go there.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Thursday, 5 January 2023 9:02:07 AM
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Two facts seem pertinent to me.

1. Russia didn't have to invade Ukraine.

2. If Russia withdrew its armed forces from Ukraine the war would end.
Posted by david f, Thursday, 5 January 2023 9:28:28 AM
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Somewhere, deep down, Putin realises he has bitten off more than he can chew.
So he is on a new tack.
So he is trying to achieve his goal by feigning a peaceful approach.
His idea of peaceful negotiation is to have 'given' to him most of what he wants?
The 'West' is expected to ignore the grossly unjust destruction he has inflicted on the Ukraine.

One might think Putin is safe and well, and in control of his affairs.
One might also think the people around him are in total agreement with his goals.
But it has become clear that this is not the case.
There is a groundswell of local opinion which does not favour him?
And he must know that this is a slow working but very powerful force.

One thing which is to be commended is that the Ukraine is fighting its own battle.
Albeit, with a little help from its friends.
I am glad to see there is not a major direct intervention by other countries.
The help given to the Ukraine will allow it to succeed on its own.
Which is as it should be.

This applies to other places which experience a major problem too.
Advice, and help with immediate needs, should be given freely when setbacks are suffered.
But only when there is a major natural disaster should anyone intrude in to another country.
And only when invited to do so.
So the approach of the west towards the Ukraine is, so far, right on target?
Posted by Ipso Fatso, Thursday, 5 January 2023 11:46:03 AM
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Dear David and IF,

I agree with you both.

I think most of us are aware of the facts.
There's enough news sources, journalists
and photographers, and political commentators
in Russia who are presenting us with what's
going on including organisations like Amnesty
International, Red Cross, and others so we don't
have to buy into the Putin propaganda. We can
sift out what's true and what isn't. The
evidence is available.
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 5 January 2023 11:53:32 AM
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EU Trade with Russia surges
http://youtu.be/gCtLPPLsQTs?t=841

Imagine if we were sending money and weapons and military to kill chinese people, but then, like talking out of both sides of our mouths we were completely reliant on chinese goods, like food, energy and fertilizer?

That's how stupid this whole thing is...
Posted by Armchair Critic, Thursday, 5 January 2023 12:45:29 PM
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We would not invade China and then demand negotiations
only on our terms.
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 5 January 2023 12:53:22 PM
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Yes the whole Russian thing is stupid.
Russia could end the war tomorrow.
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 5 January 2023 12:54:53 PM
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Ukraine could've followed the path set out by the Minsk agreements or stopped shelling innocent people, inc. hospitals and kindergartens in Donetsk.
Too late now, Russia's not going to give up its new territories.
- That ship sailed months ago, and they are not going to make deals knowing full well deals with the West cannot be trusted.

“Our proposals for the demilitarisation and denazification of the territories controlled by the regime, the elimination of threats to Russia’s security emanating from there, including our new lands, are well known to the enemy,” state news agency TASS quoted Lavrov as saying late on Monday.
“The point is simple: Fulfil them for your own good. Otherwise, the issue will be decided by the Russian army,”

There's no other way to take Russia's position.
It will be decided on the battlefield and many will die.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Thursday, 5 January 2023 4:43:14 PM
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Hi AC

"Ukraine could've followed the path set out by the Minsk agreements"

The Minsk agreements were typical Russian "do as I say not as I do" agreements. What Russia does is very reminiscent of the Nazis and the USSR, i.e. invent persecutions of ethnic populations, send in the army, then rig elections by which the occupied territory chooses to cede, so becoming independent republics or part of the motherland or fatherland. The alternative to accepting the false narrative is war. I think Putin and his henchmen as interested in diplomacy as the Nazis, which is why I agree that a military solution is the only option.

I have trouble understanding how Putin is going to equip another 500,000 troops. Both Russia and Ukraine are having trouble keeping their war machines going. Russia, for example, is firing a quarter to a third the number of artillery rounds as it was some months ago. Why would an army so replete with equipment and troops be at such a standstill (and it is only at a standstill because Russia is sacrificing thousands of troops a week in human waves)?

Ukraine has been very effective at using its range and accuracy advantage to target barracks, arsenals and supply routes. Kreminna seems to be the major strategic objective currently, but the Ukrainians seem to be good at spotting weaknesses. They might be getting Himars munitions with twice the range, along with more sophisticated drones, so Russia will be more vulnerable at greater distance from the front line.
Posted by Fester, Thursday, 5 January 2023 5:56:28 PM
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AC keeps on banging on about the Minsk agreement. This was at best a ceasefire agreement that Russia broke more frequently than Ukraine. It did not cede any land to Russia. What AC forgets is the Budapest agreement where Russia guaranteed the sovereignty of Ukraine and its pre-2014 borders.

Russia has zero integrity and no honour.

In the last few days, more than 1000 Russian conscripts have been killed without even making it to the front line and at least that number is critically injured. The Russians still haven't learnt to concentrate their troops, equipment and ammunition in small areas.

Kreminna is now under siege.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJHRNaSr2Vo&list=RDCMUCcNB1tZYpeDetqCadElv9Ow&start_radio=1&ab_channel=ReportingfromUkraine
Posted by shadowminister, Friday, 6 January 2023 4:08:53 AM
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Minsk agreement, Budapest agreement, lets have the PEACE AGREEMENT. Like all wars, this war has extracted a heavy toll in human suffering, needless deaths and destruction, all for nothing.
Posted by Paul1405, Friday, 6 January 2023 4:51:57 AM
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Dear Paul,

The best thing that the world can do for peace in
this dreadful conflict is to increase our military,
economic, and humanitarian support for Ukraine
until one day Ukraine can negotiate from a position
of strength.

The worst thing would be to push for peace negotiations
with Vladimir Putin who would like nothing more than to
have a ceasefire in Ukraine. He could sit around his
Covid-secure long table in the Kremlin dictating the
terms.

In the meantime the Russian dictator's battered,
demoralised armed forces could dig in to defend
the still large expanse of Ukraine they still occupy,
regroup, rest, re-arm and bring in the recently
conscripted reinforcements and then start up the war
again.

This would also be a global demonstration that armed
aggression pays. Watch out Taiwan.

However Ukrainians would never accept this. Opinion polls
show Ukrainians are prepared to pay a very heavy price,
including further military and civilian casualties to
regain their territory. So negotiating with Putin on his
terms would be a recipe not for peace but for an even
longer war.

Putin needs to be replaced.
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 6 January 2023 5:33:41 AM
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Hi Foxy,

As a pacifist I can't accept the notion that "war is the best avenue to peace" its been tried over and over and its been a failure, this war is no exception. People from governments down take a position, Russia right... Ukraine wrong, Ukraine right... Russia wrong. My position is all war is wrong, this war is wrong, the only avenue to peace is through goodwill and negotiation by all concerned, and hopefully that will take place very soon.
Posted by Paul1405, Friday, 6 January 2023 6:25:37 AM
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Dear Paul,

Negotiating with Putin is a recipe not for peace but for
an even longer war. He wants everything only on his
terms. You can't negotiate with a dictator. Putin is
not Gorbachev.
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 6 January 2023 7:51:08 AM
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AC,

" I never say anything without a basis of merit."

I started talking about your sources when you started telling Foxy how your knowledge was much better than hers because of all the Russians you listen to. But it just ain't so.

When I first started visiting Russia, it took me years to convince my closest colleagues that they could talk freely with me. Generally all Russians learned to self-censor and never spoke of their disappointment with their Soviet masters. This has changed somewhat these days although not with the older generation. But even the younger generation know the limits that they can safely push in regards to outright criticism of the central authorities. Criticising the war effort is allowable but criticising the actual war or, worse, the rights of Russia to rule her neighbours is quite another.

Believing this or that Russian because they seem to be even-handed and somewhat sceptical of their government's policies, is fraught. Talking freely to Russians one-on-one where their true feelings can be expressed, you find a sizeable number who just want Russia to accept its boundaries and new lesser place in the world provided it works to provide them with a better life.

I said here previously, to the apparent surprise of many, Russia is a third world country with first world weapons. Most Russians would prefer to see that reversed.

______________________________________________________________________

shadowminister wrote "What AC forgets is the Budapest agreement where Russia guaranteed the sovereignty of Ukraine and its pre-2014 borders."

Indeed. Not just pre-2014 boarders but then current 1994 borders. Additionally The US et al guaranteed the Ukrainian borders including Crimea in return for Ukraine surrendering all the nukes left on its soil after the fall of the USSR. Given what we later learned of the Clinton liking for kick-backs who knows what they got for brokering the deal. But we can say for certain that this war would likely never have happened if Ukraine still had access to nukes and once they lost those weapons the Russians never had any intention of honouring their side of the bargain.
Posted by mhaze, Friday, 6 January 2023 10:42:20 AM
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" the only avenue to peace is through goodwill and negotiation "

Perhaps a healthy supply of fairy dust and ground unicorn horn would do the trick.
Posted by mhaze, Friday, 6 January 2023 10:51:10 AM
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Paul,

Peace where Putin is free to torture and kill Ukrainians in the occupied areas and ethnically cleanse them?

The thought of that butcher holding onto any Ukrainian territory is unthinkable. He is also not prepared to negotiate until Ukraine cedes Crimea, the Donbas, Kherson and Luhansk.

The way forward for peace is for Putin to realise that he is going to lose and lose badly.
Posted by shadowminister, Friday, 6 January 2023 11:03:36 AM
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"Peace where Putin is free to torture and kill Ukrainians in the occupied areas and ethnically cleanse them?"
- That's exactly what Ukraine was doing to ethnic Russians for 8 yrs before Putin said enough.
You forget that many people have been going to Ukraine to kill the seperatists since 2014.

You all realise we have a conflict between two nuclear armed states where both sides refuse to back down?
I'm sure you understand this, you can't be that stupid.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 6 January 2023 2:28:41 PM
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"I started talking about your sources when you started telling Foxy how your knowledge was much better than hers"

I never said anything of the sort, are you going to lie too?

It was Foxy who started it when she said:

"Armchair Critic, Give it a rest.
You're reputation on the forum is not looking credible."
Right after I posted a video to two elderly women stating Ukrainians had blown up the Mariupol Drama Theatre.
Obviously she didn't like me showing Ukraine in a bad light, and could've just said 'I don't believe these women' but wanted to attack me instead.

I stuck up for myself and told her to 'grow up', but she can't cop that, and has to quip out this smug shite.
"It doesn't change the fact that you're being judged by your ignorance of the facts."
Attacking me instead of the substance of the content.

And then I mosey on over and browse the 'Diminishing Democracy in Australia' forum thread.

And just after she put me down with the
"Give it a rest. You're reputation on the forum is not looking credible."

- Here it is spouting:
"Constructive critique should be welcomed by all
But need to be slammed if you're made to feel small"

She didn't like my constructive critique, and wanted to make me feel small, and I thought what am I supposed to do with this?
- I do exactly as she suggests.
And then it comes back with more niggly smug crap.
"You can't blame me for your lack of comprehension skills."
And 'I don't wanna talk to you anymore' like an even bigger child.
And lies, and even lies bout lying.

Every single thing I've added on this forum topic I've added a link, or taken the time to explain in detail what I meant.
At no time did I attack anyone else for having a different opinion than I.
And I freely admit when others comments hold merit.

But she thinks she can lord it over others and then be petty, niggly, and smug when called out.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 6 January 2023 3:07:46 PM
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I've made all my arguments on this topic already anyway.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 6 January 2023 3:55:56 PM
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Dear Armchair Critic,

I think it was wrong that you were told to shut up. You have as much right to post as anybody else. I appreciate that you feel now that you have done so.

Whatever happened in the past Putin's forces are now wrecking Ukraine, and many people have died on both sides. The fight has evolved into a proxy war between the West and Russia with mainly Ukraine civilians and soldiers and Russian soldiers suffering and dying.

Vietnam was also a proxy war as was the war in Spain before WW2. Sometimes proxy wars grow into wider conflicts. Sometimes they don't. All we can reasonably hope for is a stalemate - a temporary end to suffering. If there is more than one center of power on earth we either have conflict or stalemate until next the next conflict. If there is one center of power on earth we have tyranny.

E O Wilson wrote "Anthill". He described a war behind one anthill and another. Human wars don't in essence differ.
Posted by david f, Friday, 6 January 2023 6:22:30 PM
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"If there is more than one center of power on earth we either have conflict or stalemate until next the next conflict. If there is one center of power on earth we have tyranny."

That may just be one of the wisest, if not THE wisest comment I've heard since this conflict began.
Well done.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 6 January 2023 8:36:58 PM
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Exactly! What have the Romans ever done for us!
Posted by Fester, Friday, 6 January 2023 9:25:53 PM
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All right, but apart from the sanitation, medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh water system and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?
Posted by Paul1405, Saturday, 7 January 2023 5:10:44 AM
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Dear Paul1405,

https://www.econlib.org/archives/2011/06/tacitus_peace_a.html

"One of Tacitus’ most famous lines is “They make a desert and call it peace.” What I didn’t realize until I read The Agricola is that Tacitus is quoting (or paraphrasing) Calgacus, an enemy of Rome. The full speech (chaps 30-32) is awesome. Highlight:

"These plunderers of the world [the Romans], after exhausting the land by their devastations, are rifling the ocean: stimulated by avarice, if their enemy be rich; by ambition, if poor; unsatiated by the East and by the West: the only people who behold wealth and indigence with equal avidity. To ravage, to slaughter, to usurp under false titles, they call empire; and where they make a desert, they call it peace.""

The US Confederacy under Jefferson Davis and the Nazis under Hitler also had impressive economies and social structures.

One measure of a society is how it treats those at the bottom. To be a slave in a southern plantation, a Jew in a gas chamber or a slave in a Roman salt mine are examples.
Posted by david f, Saturday, 7 January 2023 6:57:57 AM
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Or to be in a Ukrainian in the artificial Ukrainian
famine 1932-33, or in a Soviet gulag, or a Russian
peasant, and later intelligensia in the occupied
territories of the Soviet regime.
Posted by Foxy, Saturday, 7 January 2023 7:56:52 AM
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Dear Foxy,

There are many examples of inhumanity, but we are most aware of it when it happens to those we relate to or identify with.

Interviewer: Mr. Gandhi, what do you think about Western civilization?
Gandhi: I think it would be a good idea.

When those we relate to or identify with are the ones who act without humanity we are less aware. If we are aware we may find excuses.

Whoever we are or whoever we relate to there always seems to be an 'other'. Can we sympathize with the abused child that was Hitler? The abused child disappears and is replaced by the monster.
Posted by david f, Saturday, 7 January 2023 8:31:02 AM
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Dear David F.,

My father raised me to always ask the question
Why? - and to look not only on both sides of the coin
but around the edges as well.

A monster is a monster - no matter who they may be.
It helps put things into context to learn more
about them.

I watched the film about Putin last night on Chanel 24.
Posted by Foxy, Saturday, 7 January 2023 9:26:18 AM
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Hi david f,

"One measure of a society is how it treats those at the bottom. To be a slave in a southern plantation, a Jew in a gas chamber or a slave in a Roman salt mine are examples."

Does our treatment of those "at the bottom", the starving, the displaced the sick, make us better, because we treat them better by degree, no plantations, gas chambers or salt mines here, well.? Is out treatment of the poor of the world simply pandering to our own self-righteousness. And when the impact of that treatment impacts adversely on ourselves we then turn on those we claim to be helping.
Posted by Paul1405, Saturday, 7 January 2023 9:38:46 AM
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Regarding Mahatma Gandhi?

One of my favourite quotes is:

"You must not lose faith in humanity,
Humanity is an ocean; if a few drops of the
ocean are dirty, the ocean does not become dirty."
Posted by Foxy, Saturday, 7 January 2023 9:53:41 AM
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Dear Paul1405,

The downtrodden of the world exist. What can we do about it? We can feel guilty, but it doesn't help them. We are removed from those who exploit them. We eat the chocolate produced by the exploited. Does that make us exploiters? If some are treated better by degree that is better. I don't think there can be a society where everyone is treated fairly. We can only be less unfair. We can be kind to those that are close to us and to others we encounter.
Posted by david f, Saturday, 7 January 2023 10:47:18 AM
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Hi david f,

Today exists the richest (material wise) people that have ever existed, alongside the poorest people that have ever existed. Why is that so?
Posted by Paul1405, Saturday, 7 January 2023 11:16:14 AM
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Dear Paul,

What is your evidence that poor people today are the poorest people that have ever existed?
Posted by david f, Saturday, 7 January 2023 11:32:51 AM
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What can we do about the downtrodden of the world?

Well, we can take up the challenge by action. We can
put pressure at the ballot box for our governments
to take action on the environment. To stop denuding our
local environments, stripping our forests and polluting
our waters and the air we breathe. Humans have the
intelligence , the tools, to provide for a good sustainable
life for us all, as long as there aren't too many of us.

However, there are vested interests that make the achievement
of these goals difficult. But that does not mean we should
not try to do something about it.

The recent change of government in this country was a step in
the right direction.
Posted by Foxy, Saturday, 7 January 2023 12:04:20 PM
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A Discussion of the War in Ukraine
http://youtu.be/MEzsMk-NH0A

This is a fairly good presentation in a public library in Denver -
And it's followed by some heated questions from the public, who have opposing views.
- It's lengthy, but worth it.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 8 January 2023 11:28:41 PM
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Support of Ukraine is a must for everyone who
loves freedom and human rights, and does not support
willful aggression, power grabs, and the murder and
subjugation of innocent people. History and attempts
at empire building should not be tolerated by a free world.
Posted by Foxy, Monday, 9 January 2023 9:21:56 AM
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