Dear Lucifrase,

You say; "I truly admire the people of Sweden."

I'm not sure how much the Swedish people had to do with the decisions of their government nor how many would have preferred the route taken by other Scandinavian countries who have managed to keep the death toll at far lower levels.

There were many schools in Sweden who took upon themselves to close like they did here against the advice of the government. The car manufacturing industry also shuttered their factories and are only now looking to slowly ramp up again albeit with social distancing measures even more stringent than those within our own sector.

In fact virtually all of the major Australian manufacturing companies have kept operating unlike those in Sweden.

So the fact that the Swedes have closed their high schools and universities without the strict dictates of a right wing hands off government is indeed impressive.

Sorry Steelie, I don't wish to be disrespectful, but I think we're done and you're simply grasping for new grist.

This this bloke should have the final say. From about 23.00 to 23.30 he hits the nail bang on the head regarding how we find ourselves in this absolute bloody disaster. I strongly suggest that everybody take the time for this.

http://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/?fbclid=IwAR19GTIbcdLpYYfUCtH2XNVPoF8FClyMwFaKLsAxaXlYCPJqwUUs-xjEFPI

I don't believe we can live with what the HI advocates are suggesting. There are too many possibilities and unknowns to go down that path.

*Is herd immunity possible, and at what cost?
*If achievable is immunity permanent?
*What are the long term health effects of the virus?
*Is there a possibility of a more virulent strain developing?

The only worthwhile course of action is containment, while working on a vaccine.

Joe,

Soylent Green....Edward G Robinson....Strawberries.

What is your favourite fruit?

Some good news; A team of scientists at Oxford University and a separate team at Imperial College in London plan to start human trials into a vaccine this week, with production potentially starting before the trials are completed.

Joseph Stiglitz on Trump's botched handling of the cries;

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

*Is herd immunity possible, and at what cost?

Yes, humans have been at war with viruses for millenia, and won (Spanish 'flu) or come out even (common cold, seasonal 'flu). It will occur whatever strategy is followed, with similar mortalities.

*If achievable is immunity permanent?

Probably not as the virus will evolve (slower than 'flu it is thought, but whatever) and a portion of the population at a time will be susceptible, like 'flu.

*What are the long term health effects of the virus?

Why would answering this make a jot of difference to the strategy when the outcomes will be similar in mortality?

*Is there a possibility of a more virulent strain developing?

Just as 'flu which constantly evolves, so will this, so yes.

The only worthwhile course of action is containment, while working on a vaccine.

If you don't believe herd immunity is possible then no vaccine is possible either.

Eliminating the virus by testing, targeting and quarantine is not possible. Listen to the man in the video link I gave above.

Politicians are having a field day acting out decisiveness and strength 'based on medical advice'. Look at the genuflection they receive from the people they have frightened. There is no precedence for the elimination path we are on with so infectious a virus and high percentage of asymptomatic carriers. The great experiment is not Sweden's but the path we are on, which completely ignores health outcomes from economic lives being dashed to the rocks for a generation.

Dear Lucifrase,

I think we are indeed done. We certainly have a huge difference with what we deem a disaster. To me what has happened in Sweden, the UK and in the USA particularly NY are disasters. To you they appear to be shining examples of a bit of unproven short term pain for long term gain.

What I object to is people holding up places like Sweden as some kind of success story. Two days ago the Spectator was pontificating “Sweden is sticking to its policy because, on the whole, it is balanced and effectual. So far, the actual development is generally following the government’s prediction. On Monday, 1,580 people had died and tested positive for Covid-19. The number of daily deaths has remained pretty stable at about 75 for a while but is now on a declining path.

The daily death toll in the last two days have been the highest on record at 185 and 172.
http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

This is despite closing high schools and universities and switching off major manufacturing.

I'm not sure how to argue this with someone who is determined to be blind to the figures so happy to leave it there.

Hi Steele,

The bottom line of HI vs. Lock-Downs is that, in one case,

* the curve is likely to go high, fast, and stay high, or decline only slowly - or keep going up - with an overwhelmed health system, but an inefficiently-functioning economy;

And at the other extreme, the curve rises, is controlled and declines relatively quickly, inflicting far fewer deaths, but with an even more inefficient economy.

The death differential could be in double figures or worse. Australia's final figure for 2020 could reach 100, while the US total of deaths could reach could reach into the hundreds of thousands by next month.

So we trade off deaths against incomes: If a life is worth, say, a million dollars a year, then in the US - apart from hypothetical numbers if there had been lock-downs earlier - then the economic savings of, say, thirty thousand excess deaths would be around seventy billion dollars. So far.

Of course, some regions, age-groups, professions, etc., etc., are far less impacted than others, in every country. Of course, where the curve has been. controlled and reduced to extremely manageable levels, restrictions could be lifted selectively. In Australia, most of southern WA, SA, for example; 20-40 year-olds; many occupations which do not involve personal contacts.

Have we reached that point on the curve yet ? Maybe not, maybe another week or so. To get to the point where we have massively excess capacity in our health system would be ideal - and the sensible long-term policy would be to try to keep it that way, in order to combat black swan events in the future.

Joe