the same ratbags that want to keep Hassie locked up in order to save the vulnerable are happy to promote euthanasia for the elderly and slaughter for the unborn. One day you will realise its about control for socialist/god deniers. Just like the gw preachers flying around the globe telling us not to fly economy. The fear that Norman Swan and others whose data is crap installed in the Premiers have turned into power and control. People are fined for eating kebabs while both Labour and Liberal pollies have been holidaying and letting out their properties for short term rent. Salaries and jobs are guaranteed for public servants while others sit at home being told they hate the elderly if they go out. Smells quite a bit. Just hope your elderly don't die because you are unlikely to be allowed go to the funeral (unless you are of a particular identity).

Here are my tips for 100% survival, Loudie:

1. If we go the supposed 'elimination' path, stay isolated for years while herd-immunity is reached and the world beyond your door goes to economic blazes.

2.If we go a Swedish path, stay isolated for a relatively much shorter time while herd-immunity is reached and the world beyond your door maintains economic activity and constancy.

Keep the YFP number handy as you may need its help.

Dear Lucifrase,

You write;

"2.If we go a Swedish path, stay isolated for a relatively much shorter time while herd-immunity is reached and the world beyond your door maintains economic activity and constancy."

While there are many articles appearing extolling the virtues of the Swedish path and saying they will soon reach herd immunity they have just had the highest number of deaths in a day.
http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

At what point will you accept they have achieved herd immunity? It should be noted that the Swedish government was not trying for HI indeed highschools and universities remain closed, rather they recognised that given low population densities and the distancing which has always been part of their culture along with a high degree of personal responsibility there was an opportunity not to go as hard as some other countries.

Why would you assume the Swedish example wouldn't have had an even greater toll if tried here in Australia?

The ATO will be jumping on anyone accessing the $10,000 from their super if they still have job i.e not affected by the China virus.

Luciferase,

What makes you think that 'herd immunity' will ever be reached ? Or that immunity can be attained, let alone for a large fraction of the population ? Or, of course, that you will be part of that superior population ?

What if the virus actually damages a person's lungs, kidneys, heart or other organs, lowering their immunity for the next time but masking the fact that they may be carriers as well ?

I can follow the logic of the notion that if large numbers get the virus, get over it with some immunity, they will eventually form a large part of the population. Presumably younger people. Who, I hate to tell you, will grow old in their turn.

Current restrictions allows for another model: a wind-down of the infected and carrier populations through firm lock-downs and keeping all potential carriers out, like the Chinese did at Wuhan, welding apartment doors shut, etc.: perhaps we could call this the 'Wuhan Model'.

And what might be the impact of simply removing all restrictions ? If a large proportion of the entire population, say 1 %, 250,000, came down with it in the next two or three months ? Quite feasible. What impact might that have on the health system ? Could it cope, or would it be overwhelmed, as it seems to be in the US, where incompetence rules ? Perhaps in future, it will be called the American Virus. No wonder Trump wants to pass the buck, he's got only six months to wish all of this away. Eight hundred thousand cases, forty thousand deaths, and counting.

Joe

Steelie,

HI is reached when, by my calculus (which I have explained here) 3 people per 1000 population have died (using a lower R0 estimates around, it's possibly closer to 2.5). Sad to use such a statistic as a 'goal', but the number will be reached whether we want to reach it or not. At the moment there is no such statistic proffered in the public domain, only hysterical charges of eugenics vs elimination (Godwin's Law). Whatever statistic is ultimately agreed upon, the principal applies that HI will be the outcome of any approach with this virus. By my estimation 30000 Swedes will die enroute to HI, and 75000 Australians.

How many deaths per day is too much? That depends on health-system capacity. The Swedish gov't has control of infection rate through voluntary compliance with its guidance and closure powers so as not to overwhelm capacity. School closure is an option (they must think kids have something to do with spread!) and, AFAIK, the situation right now is per http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-idUSKBN2141D3

From your chosen data site http://tinyurl.com/y9xn3krb Sweden is running up to half the Spanish death rate per day and rising. When will it be too much? When the health system can't manage the caseload, is the answer. The Swedish strategy will be a failure when that happens, not instantaneously but irretrievably. It's not any particular number, if that's what you want me to choose.

What's utmostly important is that those at the medical frontline have all the PPE they need at their disposal, however fast the caseload.

I truly admire the people of Sweden.