In 2019 over 4000 people died from influenza. The previous year it was over 3000. (Imagine some talking-head on TV lamenting about 15 deaths “today”…everyday through the season) To date we had 30 Wuhan Virus deaths.

Increasingly, as new and better data becomes available, the threat from the pandemic seems to recede. The original thoughts of 500,000 deaths in the UK and 2,000,000 in the US have become 20,000 and 100,000.

Whereas the original fears were that the virus had a fatality rate (ie the percentage of patients who die having caught the virus) of 2% - 5%, again better data now has this being well below 1% and likely it could be in the influenza region of 0.1% or lower (perhaps as low as 0.01%).

Even in Europe, where things are much worse than anything we’ve seen here so far, they are getting strange signs that things aren’t all doom and gloom. Check this site which shows a strange lack of increase in overall deaths in Europe…http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

There’s no validity in criticising governmental responses to the so-called pandemic. They were all flying blind on this (thanks China/WHO) and there were no good options – only bad and less bad.
But now we know that the threat of this virus to all, other than the very aged with pre-existing conditions, is minor. It’s likely that, had we known the full details as to the dangers of the virus back in February, our response would have been very different. Rather than broad isolation, targeted isolation of those most in danger would have been the go.

The nature of government is that it never admits error and when presented with the chance to take more power, rarely passes up that chance. So we are unlikely to see a reverse of course. But we should now recognise that we are continuing the strangulation of the economy through choice rather than necessity.

The economy, lives and savings are being ripped apart. What if it wasn’t necessary? What if this is really just a bad flu season where ‘experts’ panicked and then panicked government

This is the weirdest post I've seen in a while. The very page the mhaze links to (ie. http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html) explicitly shows in a very clear graphic and graphs how the virus is causing massive changes in the death rates across europe. On the map displayed on the website's front page all the areas in dark blue mean that there are very great increases, these are countries with a z-score of 7 and above. (A z-score is a calculated figure from statics that relates a data point to its deviation from the mean of a bell curve. A figure of 7 is really high!). So guess which countries are dark-blue; yep, all those with high incidences of the virus, eg: Italy, Spain, etc. And yet mhaze says "Check this site which shows a strange lack of increase in overall deaths in Europe".

As an aside: What is interesting from this site's data is that there is a slight decrease in deaths in the past week for 16-64 year olds. But this is to be expected, because most of Europe is in lock-down and thus not doing the dangerous things (like driving a car, working, going out at night and getting drunk/into fights) that they normally do.

Also, where did mhaze get the "again better data now has this being well below 1% and likely it could be in the influenza region of 0.1% or lower (perhaps as low as 0.01%)." from.? I haven't seen anyone else on the web claiming this.

And as for the decrease in predicted number of deaths. The number is decreasing BECAUSE of the governments' extreme lock-down reaction. The 100,000-to-millions of deaths that people used to quote were from before the various governments' responses. Since the lockdown/other measures have been implemented the numbers have been and are continually being revised and as excepted the projected figures are decreasing.

Dear thinkabit,

I wouldn't pay too much attention to what mhaze has to say.

The thing that he doesn't seem to understand is the fact that there is no vaccine for the Wuhan virus, which means that if it is allowed to spread unabated it will kill tens of millions and could even lead to an extinction event for our species.

The problem with mhaze is that he is just an engineer or some such trade and does not have a knowledge of the world in which he lives. He thinks that people who study the Arts things like history, anthropology, archaeology, sociology, philosophy, etc., do not know anything and are the cause of the world's problems.

thinkabit,

First a little explanation on the EuroMomo data. When I posted the link it was still showing the Week 12 data. The site has changed a little since then with a Week 13 update. In posting the Week 12 data they commented there was "no increased mortality is observed in the reported mortality figures for the COVID-19 affected countries."

Although the data shows increases in some locations it doesn't show an overall increase in deaths across Europe. You need to look at the graphs for the overall data and compare the deaths during this influenza season as compared to previous influenza seasons. Equally, look at the data for each country and note that only those known hotspots show an increase. Other nations show a decline in deaths.

You write: "The [predicted] number is decreasing BECAUSE of the governments' extreme lock-down reaction." Actually the decline is due to many of the inputs to the models being altered with new and better data. For example, the assumption about the re-infection rate was originally wrong. Equally the assumptions about the percentage requiring hospitalisation was too high. And the numbers of asymptomatic patients originally confused the models.The data from the Diamond Princess threw many assumptions into doubt. (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/ ....one of many analyses of that vessel if you care to look).

As to the lower mortality rate, again much has been written on this but for starters....

http://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/03/26/stanford-physicians-suggest-covid-19-could-have-lower-mortality-rate-than-flu/

if you can get past the WSJ paywall then there's a better explanation there from high credentialed academics .

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/31/time_for_a_second_opinion_142817.html

Everyone is essentially guessing as to the mortality rate with 0.01% being the lower figure. But any number of analyses equate it the to influenza rate.

Mr O,

The adults are talking now. Be a good boy and be seen but not heard.

Mhaze

Its what they are not telling us in regards to totally destroyed economies that is far more concerning than the virus itself. People are relatively content at the moment because the sugar money is being handed out and no public servants have lost their jobs.

Any comparison between the rate of influenza, and the rate of coronavirus is of no value. This is a pandemic, which if allowed to go unchecked has the potential to kill millions throughout the world. Many western governments, our included, were caught napping, and some are now paying the ultimate price with the loss of the lives of their citizens in great numbers. The USA, UK, Spain and Italy are the biggest nappers of all, and they are paying dearly now for their tardiness.

runner, several bible bashing preachers in the state of Kansas intend to conduct Easter services within their churches. These fools claim no harm will befall the congregation as God will protect them from the smite of the Devil, aka coronavirus. All well and good if they are right, but what if they are wrong and 50,000 others die because of it. Do you agree with the intended action of these bloody bible bashers?