What's the bet that Rudd is back in the top job by tomorrow night?

(Feels different this time - much more discipline from the Rudd camp)

Hi Poirot,

Interesting hypothesis: if it came to pass, would the Independents back him ? If not, then it's all over, red rover.

Would every former Gillard supporter back him in government, Emerson, Conroy, Swan, i.e. to satisfy the stringent conditions that the G-G would be told by Her Upstairs to demand of an effective government ? In other words, could a Rudd government govern ?

I think we're in for a very quick election if Gillard is overthrown.

I suspect that that won't happen. Gillard will lead the Labor Party to its worst defeat ever, by far. Whatever rises from the ashes in a decade or so - a non-class-based party to the Left of the Liberals - will be a different party, with a different social base.

And by then, both Rudd and Gillard will be distant, bitter memories. But I'll miss my local member, Steve Georganas, he has always seemed a really decent bloke. I might even campaign for him ;)

Now certainly is the time to come to the aid of the party.

Joe

It's funny how the feminist line is suddenly how Julia is hated because she's female, and I had actually fallen for the repetition on that until Jacqueline Maley reminded me that Gillard was actually popular to begin with. It's only since people have seen how she has performed as a PM she is so disliked. I don't feel she ever recovered form the Real Julia myself. I mean people can accept a pollie saying don't believe what I say until you see it in writing, that sounds stupidly honest, but saying I've been pretending to be someone else now this is really me is a bit much to take.

In the end the ALP is stuffed. As usual you can relate life to cricket. I don't see KRudd as talented as Boof Lehman though.

Maybe if we had a PM called Boof, we could all rally behind him.

It will take about 4.2 weeks for everyone to remember (except for the nutter QLDers of course), what a dip sh1t Rudd actually was. And let me just say this...

They should have sorted out their leadership business a bit earlier me thinks. The public, especially the NSW public will not elect another Labor government until they actually see a cohesive unit. NSW Labor, aka The Rabble, have nothing on these lot.

So, what a wonderful choice we have us Aussies; Programmatic Specificity vs Stop the Boats!

Here's to 3 months of Working Families! I cant wait for the Libs to rerun all that footage of Swan and co slamming Rudd's character from the last leadership bid, oh, sorry the second to last, the one where Rudd actually had the balls to stand.

Maybe gthere's a lesson here:

That a government can'tsurvie if:

* it overthrows one leader, with a small but solid faction behind him, and then

* relies on a handful of Independents to form a bare-majority government under another leader, i.e. if it can't form a government in its own right.

Of course, it might be in even more trouble if

* one of its members is caught rorting union funds to pay for prostitutes.

One does not have to posit a 'blue-tie conspiracy'. But if Gillard wants to lose even more votes, she could push that one. Oh, then get up a group called, not 'Men for Gillard', but 'Women for Gillard'.

Dumb, dumb 457 spin.

Rehctub, a couple of days ago:"Anti, if Rudd was so connected to the people, as you suggest, he would be working for nothing, and donating his entire income to the public purse,"

Rehctub, today:"Yes, I did do quite well, most of the time."I donated in excess of a quarter of a million dollars to worthwhile local events over my 23 odd years."

I guess you're not very connected to the community. Or perhaps you just speak through your bum out of habit.

Belly, Gillard to win, Rudd to quit politics, announcement during the Origin, probably at a point when one team is just about to score.

Bingo! Every potential ALP voter supremely p1ssed off at the ALP, both for "canning Rudd" (except he's in on the gag) except the progressives, who are chuffed and weren't watching footy anyway.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/nrl/record-television-viewing-audience-expected-for-state-of-origin-ii-in-brisbane/story-fni3fqyp-1226668528769

Headlines on Friday about new poll showing ALP support down to 20%. Puff pieces from Anne Summers et al on Saturday about how tough Gillard is and what a shame that horrible Rudd couldn't leave her alone.

ALP loses more than half its seats on 14/9. Huge influx of women to the party by the end of September. Party conference decides to change the proportionality of union caucus votes. Howes quits AWU and gets plum ILO job or similar. Ludwig retires. Gillard goes overseas to job with UNIFEM and has to be extradicted to be charged over AWU-WRA. Shorten gets treasury, Swan gets some minor job he's capable of. At 2016 election majority of ALP candidates are women from white collar backgrounds. By the time the LNP is finally kicked out, perhaps around 2022 or 2025, all ALP candidates are such women.

McTernan goes away with a bonus and satisfaction at a job well done.

Yes, lots of speculation, but I've already given my reasons for holding this view. Can you show me why you think I'm wrong?

Oh yeah, forgot to mention one more thing. Ingeus announced as exclusive provider of re-training and employment services to ACTU and all affiliated unions sometime in 2014.