Hi Fester,
Yes, it is known what was used in the attack on the Berdyansk airfield, because the bomblets were found at the scene and identified, and SM is correct.

The AFU used the MGM-140B ATACMS Block 1A (M39A1) ballistic cluster missile fired from HIMARS.
- This missile contains 275-300 M74 submunitions and is capable of hitting targets at a range of up to 300 kilometers.

A NYT article apparently stated that only 20 of these missiles were sent to Ukraine, and according to twiiter sources so far they've used 11.
- Apparently 6 were used in the airfield attack.

Hi Shadow Minister,
"With the delivery of the ATACMS missiles, nowhere in the Donbass is safe for Russians."

Please keep in mind that Ukraine's quantity of these missiles is extremely limited, where Russia's ability to target anywhere, anytime and replace those weapons used is much less limited.

This is just the next installment of Ukraine's 'wonder-weapon' propaganda, at a time when it was desperately needed.

Ukraine may have had a few wins over the last week, but they most certainly have not won the war, and these small wins really don't change anything.
There's is nowhere on the map where Ukraine is taking back any territory.

They are just extending the duration of the war, with no real capability to actually win it.

Baldrick,

The US delivered 20 Missiles so far. As each weighs about 2 tons, they don't come in 6 packs but plenty more will be on their way. What was also delivered was the long-range HIMARS missiles with a range of 150km. Nowhere in the Donbas are Russian soldiers safe.

Ukraine has been destroying so many Russian tanks and APVs and artillery that Russia is now finding itself out gunned in all these areas. Also, the latest AA missile systems have enabled 3 Su25s to be shot down in the last week alone.

Russia is losing this war.

Hi AC,

Yes, it was ATACMS. Five of them disabled two airfields and Russia's helicopter strike capacity. And Avdiivka has been a disaster so far. I think that the Russian generals thought they could take it with overwhelming force as they did with Soledar or Bakhmut, but instead they had their entire assault force killed and lost a substantial amount of hardware. What is changing is that Russia is losing its artillery along with the rest of its war machinery. While they still have many thousands of gun emplacements along the front, the Ukrainians are getting better at destroying them, perhaps enhanced by reducing Russia's electronic warfare capacity. I note that the recent advance over the Dnipro was enabled by the ATACMS strike on the helicopter base and an intensive drone operation taking out observation posts, artillery pieces and any other hardware they could find, including several trucks.

The danger for Russia is they will start losing the ability to support the entire front line. I think that is close to happening and suspect that the advance will take place in the south where the logistics are hardest for Russia.

Hi Fester,
I think the Russian losses have been overexaggerated.
And I certainly don't think they lost anywhere near as much as the Ukrainians did in the opening days of their counteroffensive in Robotyne but yes they did take some significant losses.
The Ukrainians are getting pretty good with their drones.
And yes it probably was a mistake on the part of Gerasimov.

Before the battle for Avdiivka started the Ukrainians were successful in sending a sabotage team in to take out a bridge west of the city, and this probably had some impact on the outcome, but as I said earlier the defenses there had been built up over 8 or 9 years.
I told you it was going to be bloody, and that we'd say how things went in the coming days, as it turns out not the great for the Russians this time.

Essentially it's just another battle, sometimes they are successful and they gain a foothold, and sometimes it doesn't work out.
The Russians will hold people accountable, regroup, restrategise and look for solutions, it's by no means the end of the war.

I heard the UK MoD has said they expect to try again at some point and carpet bomb the city into rubble.
The loss of the helicopters is pretty bad, but they haven't lost experienced pilots in the attack which are just important.
I think Russia has been copping a bit of flak during the war for not having protective shelters for aircraft, this may force them to rethink that complacency.

Yes, that is interesting AC. The Ukrainians have moved to smaller operations and they seem better at coordinating their forces. Cutting that bridge made the defence of Avdiivka easier along with the ATACMS strike, which also enabled the counterattack in Kherson.

What I've heard about the assaults on Avdiivka is that they were not as well supported with artillery, used fewer tanks and armoured personnel carriers along with fewer troops, and the assaults were made in daylight over open fields, most of which were mined. Such assaults might make sense if the Ukrainians were close to running out of ammunition, but it seems a waste of life and equipment for no gain thus far.

I've also heard that Russia has lost about 70% of it KA-52 attack helicopters. That could prove significant. Despite it all, I still think Russia a much stronger force than Shadowminister thinks it to be, but at least the Ukrainians seem to have a battle plan.

But am sure that we are in complete agreement of the total horror of it all. Just sickening and for what? A lot of Russians could freeze to death this winter if they live long enough. Time to put some bullets in the three stooges and end this tragedy.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/22970