Since Russia cancelled the grain deal Ukraine has massively ramped up its attacks on Russia's black sea fleet. The toll on Russian ships so far this month has been extensive. First, an oil tanker and landing ship were badly damaged by water-born drones, next a submarine and another landing ship were destroyed in the dry dock by storm shadow missiles, and a patrol boat was destroyed by a water-born drone and recently two further ships have been badly damaged.

The dry docks are also damaged and full of burnt-out craft making repairing the badly damaged ships difficult until the dry docks become serviceable again.

It looks as though Russia is losing control of the black sea to a country without a navy.

Dear ShadowMinister,

Please don't rejoice too early because the battle is still long: China's fleet is very strong and they haven't yet lost even one ship. Ukraine is only a probe where they use their junior partner to test the waters.

Greg Copley, President of the International Strategic Studies Ass., and Global Information Inc, advises that Russia is getting "stronger and stronger", and Ukraine is getting "weaker and weaker", still hanging on only because of Western help, which will soon be withdrawn because there is "no point to it".

ttbn,
That's what it looks like to me too !

Y,

As China isn't fighting, to lose a ship would be careless. It is rumoured that they have lost a nuclear sub recently.

ttbn, The ISSA is a one-horse organisation with apparently bogus qualifications. More reputable organisations like the ISW rate Russia's combat capability to have been reduced to less than 50% of what it was before its illegal invasion whereas Ukraine's combat capability has increased dramatically with its long-range weapons taking a constant toll and the cluster munitions killing hundreds of Russians daily. To all extents, Russia has lost the capability to mount an offensive and is struggling to hold Ukraine back.

Russia is losing this war.

"More reputable organisations like the ISW"

Lol..
This is where you get your info from?
Why am I not surprised.

So you get your news from the exact people who started the war?

Don't you know that Victoria Nuland bragged about spending 5 billion to help enable the 2014 overthrow of Ukraine and that her husband, Robert Kagan, his family runs the ISW - all neoconservative warmongers.

It all makes sense now why you think the way you do SM.

Baldrick, Got your tinfoil hat on?

It's pretty clear that Russia started this war, my information is from photographs of destroyed and damaged ships and photos of destroyed Russian equipment from various sources.

You have yet to show where the ISW has been wrong. Your sources have many times claimed that the entire Ukrainian army was destroyed along with 2x as many aircraft as they have ever possessed and 4x the number of tanks they possessed. All along the front line is the stench of Russian soldiers rotting in the sun.

Russia is losing this war.

Dear ShadowMinister,

«As China isn't fighting,»

But it IS fighting - only each war uses different tactics.

At this time, China is only fighting a proxy war, by sending its junior partner, Russia, to test the waters and see how the West reacts when a smaller country is attacked. Should Russia succeed, then China will be encouraged to launch its next attacks, first on Taiwan then on Japan and Australia.

By itself, the war in Ukraine is of little interest to us, but it is critical for Australia in the larger scheme of things.

Y,

No Chinese are fighting and no Chinese equipment is being used, so I struggle to see how China is fighting.

As for the message, the Russian army is being smashed thanks to Allied aid and China has no allies. The message should be clear by now.

I feel very sorry for the ordinary Ukrainian & Russian who have both been made the pawns in a viciously heinous game played by outsiders who make lucrative careers from the sufferings of those people.

"It's pretty clear that Russia started this war"
- You make out like the war started in 2022.

"the Russian army is being smashed"

Ukraine is pulling kids out of university studies to send to the front and plug the gaps.
They are having Ukrainian men extradited from Europe to go fight.
They have been sending women in to fight.
The ones with dead husbands and no kids seem willing enough.

Keep smashing the Russia army, you're doing so well.
The idiots you listen to would herald a 2 front war with Russia and China at the same time, but the cowards won't do their own fighting.

The US military is not what it was in the 80's, 90's or even 2000's.
Even they can't do combined arms warfare well anymore.
The Ukrainians are being sent to slaughter and are dying at a ratio of 8 to 1.

America wouldn't win against Russia or China individually let alone both at once, 10,000 kilometers from home.
Their army is not big enough and their industrial manufacturing is not up to task to arm and supply a sufficient force to fight either adversary.

Not to mention the question of how would you put troops on the ground, feed and supply them in China?
I'd be more worried about how you're going to fuel the ships, because you know every single port capable of refueling US warships will be destroyed by China on day 1.

How do you think Ukraine fights its war?
- With Russian oil.

If what your aiming for is Ukraine to be completely destroyed your doing at good job at helping.
Do you ever ask yourself that SM, whether your support for Ukraine means more of them die?
- You probably should ask yourself that question, if you actually care about the Ukrainians which I doubt.
I think your driven by hate from a cold war mentality.

China is definitely fighting a war. The CCP doesn't differentiate between peacetime and wartime the way the West does. They are fighting a psychological war, and they are winning it.

I have recommended 'When China Attacks' by Colonel Grant Newsham. I have only reached Chapter 6, and already many misconceptions about how China intends to to replace the US - certainly in the Pacific for starters - are clear. Their preference is to do it without firing a shot. They are unlikely to invade any country, apart from Taiwan, whose occupation is vital to keeping the US from getting through the surrounding islands. But, they they firmly believe that they can win without being involved in a major shooting war; and they will, unless the West changes its tactics and starts listening to different advice.

The Ukraine-Russia affair is just a sideshow to keep the West looking in the wrong direction and continuing to think that China thinks they way they do.

Baldrick,

You are talking about Russia's first illegal invasion of Crimea and Donbas after his puppet was ousted by a popular uprising.

Russians are dying at a far higher rate than Ukrainians to the point that they are running out of men in the South and have extended mobilisation to the end of the war. Russia has had to evacuate all its ships from Crimea as they can't protect them.

Russia couldn't beat Poland let alone the US or Nato. China gets most of its oil and resources overseas and a blockade of China would throw it into chaos in weeks. China would also lose a naval war around Taiwan especially as the US is giving Taiwan hundreds of anti-ship missiles and anti-aircraft defenses.

Russia is losing this war.

The Woke West is the Conservative's East best ally by sheer stupidity alone. Just think of a fit, intelligent Chinese vs some tattooed, drugged-up Woke Western morons ! Who would you rather have in your camp ?

The most important asset of the Russian armed forces is the senile and inept Joe Biden. Biden arguably started the war by announcing at a press conference that the US would not act on limited Russian military action in Ukraine. His dithering on the provision of long range missiles is his latest act of stupidity and will bolster Russia's war effort.

None of it matters.
Ukraine will run out of weapons and manpower before Russia does.
They are practically on the verge of collapse right now.
There's no more offensive actions, they don't have the military power to take any of the land back.

Carrying on and believing a successful drone strike here or there will change Ukraines fortunes is completely delusional.

Why do you think Kishida is calling Kim Jong Un and begging for a meeting without any conditions?
Different side of the continent I know...

Because if North Korea does something, say pummel South Korea and Japan with low yield nuclear weapons, what is the US going to do?
Is it prepared to lose Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego on the US west coast just to respond to North Korean actions when South Korea and Japan have already been annihilated?

That's why Kishida's on the phone begging for meetings.
http://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/japan-s-premier-says-he-s-ready-to-meet-with-north-korea-s-leader-anytime-/2996402

The US position isn't as strong as many claim.
Ukraine has already lost the war, they have no forces capable of taking anything back, and the West doesn't have the military hardware to help them rebuild a 4th army after the last 3 have already been destroyed.

The US wants to freeze the conflict because it has lost, but wants to keep pretending it has won, and save face.

[Cont.]
Americas ability to potentially beat a numerically larger force is based around its precision strike capability.

Adversaries could litter a battlefield with poor accuracy munitions, but the US had the ability to strike with pinpoint accuracy.

In this war however the US does not possess precision strike superiority.

Russia has superior jamming technology, and can jamm US JDAM missiles.
They just drop like dumb bombs and are ineffective.

On the other hand though, Russia does possess precision strike superiority.
It can drop a 1500kg glide bomb on a building with pinpoint accuracy full of Ukrainian troops as they try to move to the front, taking cover.
- And Ukraine can't jamm them, can't do anything.

Ukrainians take massive casualties before they even get to the front.
And if they do gather sufficient numbers to mount an attack, Russia if forced to will step back and lead them into a firebag, which is how Russian defensive lines were built, with this in mind.

Russia has gotten 10s of thousands of volunteers signing up to military service.
Ukraine has to drag kids off the street and pistol whip them enough times for them to sign their conscription papers.

Ukraine and the West are doing a decent job of losing on their own, without Russia even having to go on a big offensive, but the longer Russia holds back, the more likely the West will do something stupid.

The more well trained Ukrainian troops are all dead.
What they fight with now are poorly trained conscripts.

Hi AC,

Western nations have a very large military resource, mainly because of the aggressive military conduct of nations like Russia. As it is, the major obstacle to Ukrainian advance is the heavily mined land they must advance over. Their task would be made easier by the supply of F16s and longer range missiles, but the supply of these munitions has been incomprehensibly delayed by Russia's best friend, Joe Biden. In his defence, being the Weekend at Burnies PotUS, those decisions are being made by others.

Russia has likely lost at least half of its land based military capability, and its approach to DPRNK suggests that there is a critical shortage of ordinance developing. Without China's supply of electronic warfare equipment, I suspect that the Russian army would have been defeated before now. Ukraine is pursuing a sound military strategy against Russia, but the supply of more capable hardware and ordinance would help their effort greatly.

That arrogant little Ukrainian squirt, leader of what has been described as the Fourth Reich, is now stamping his little foot and telling the U.S that they are not giving enough.

Just an observation: only 25% of world countries show much interest in Ukraine. Apart from non-binding, irrelevant votes in the UN, there is not much interest.

Baldrick,

What Bollocks! You have been claiming that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse for over a year even after spectacular defeats of Russia, even you can't be that stupid that you believe it anymore?

As for precision weapons, Russia doesn't have any and the HIMARS has been hitting targets with pinpoint accuracy for more than a year. The JDAMS are still way more accurate than the Russian crap and the destruction of the Sevastopol dry dock, the black fleet HQ and the 12 Russian jets at the Saki air base in the last week should show that the Ukrainians have perfectly accurate precision weapons. and the M777 howitzers are hitting the Russian trenches with cluster munitions. The Russians aren't even trying to pick up their dead and just leave them rotting in the fields.

In the next month or so Ukraine will be getting Abrahms tanks, F16s with their high-tech missiles and ATACMS long-range missiles.

Russia is losing this war.

Things are getting a bit heated. Personally, I don't give a fig who is winning. Neither country means squat. The only obvious thing is that Ukraine is getting the crap blown out of it, and Russia is not.

The Great donor, America, has a lot of people sick of seeing their money being poured into the Fourth Reich while they are in bad economic straits just as we are in Australia.

Donald Trump is a 60% goer for President, and he will soon put a stop to the Ukraine charity. Then all will be resolved.

We have our own country's defence to concentrate on. We can't even get enough civilian police: 200 to be imported from overseas if they are silly enough to come here to be treated like shite. The military is the same: do your job properly, and you will be rubbished by your own Prime Minister and found guilty of something without trial. How long before we have to get foreign mercenaries in?

All this Russia/Ukraine BS is being used to take simple minds of Australia's problems.

ttbn,

So you are happy for a tyrant like Hitler / Putin to invade and occupy other countries' territories? That's just sad.

A recent poll in the USA found 65% of respondents favoured supporting Ukraine along with most Republican and Democratic senators so even if Trump was re-elected (which I believe is unlikely) the support would continue. As the next presidential elections are also 14 months away there is unlikely to be much change for a while.

While the war is being fought mostly on Ukrainian territory, the Russians are losing 100s of soldiers every day and more aircraft tanks and ships than they can replace in a decade. The Ukrainian long-range missiles have just taken out the high command of the black sea fleet.

At home, there is a shortage of diesel and other refined fuels as Russia can no longer get spares for its equipment, and the ruble is now crashing.

The question is not whether the Russian army collapses but when.

"The Ukrainian long-range missiles have just taken out the high command of the black sea fleet."

Keep dreaming SM,

Ukraine's not going to take one inch of land back scaring the Russians with pinprick attacks.
They've been trying that unsuccessfully on women and kids in Donetsk City for 9 years.
- Also the building was empty, Crimea's full of underground tunnels and bunkers.

Also it looks just as likely they are putting the squeeze on others ahead of winter rather than suffering any kind of serious shortage themselves.

http://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/22/russias-indefinite-ban-on-fuel-exports-could-worsen-a-global-shortage.html

>>“The middle distillate market was already seeing significant strength ahead of this ban with inventories tight in the US, Europe and Asia as we head into the Northern Hemisphere winter,” Patterson said, citing factors such as OPEC+ production cuts, recovering air travel and Europe’s struggle to replace Russian middle distillates after a ban came into effect in February.

“The loss of around [1 million barrels per day] of Russian diesel in the global market will be felt and only reinforces the supportive view we have held on middle distillate cracks and as a result on refinery margins,” he added. “How much upside really depends on the duration of the ban.”<<

Baldrick,

So I suppose the dozen or so ambulances there along with rescue teams were there for the show? Russia has now lost nearly as many generals as it did in WW2.

Russia's ban on diesel exports is because Russia wasn't producing enough to supply its own market:

"Russia in recent months has suffered shortages of gasoline and diesel. Wholesale fuel prices have spiked, although retail prices are capped to try to curb them in line with official inflation.

The crunch has been especially painful in some parts of Russia's southern breadbasket, where fuel is crucial for gathering the harvest. A serious crisis could be awkward for the Kremlin as a presidential election looms in March."

Similarly, Russia's reduction in oil output is because it can't sell it. Not only are China and India buying from other sources, but shipping countries are reluctant to risk their tankers in the black sea.

These pinprick attacks have destroyed much of the black sea navy, most of Russia's modern tanks and about half of its artillery. The use of cluster munitions is killing 100s of Russian soldiers every day.

Russia is losing this war.

SM

Probably not a good idea to invoke Hitler when Ukraine is referred to as the Fourth Reich. It's not just Putin who calls them Fascists; they helped Hitler in the SS and in concentration camps during WW11.

Who is "just sad"? Me, or the invasion of Ukraine by Russia; which I'm not "happy" about, but which I understand in view of the NATO provocation .

Is there a poll indicating that 65% of Australians support our country's support of Ukraine?

About 70% of Russians themselves still support the war - understandably down a little because of the Russian losses.

I hate war. But this one has nothing to do with Australia. And we should not be helping anyone, in my opinion.

I don't understand your interest in a conflict between countries we have very little to do with. Do you have personal reasons?

ttbn,

I see that you have been drinking Putin's Kool-Aid there is far more resemblance between Putin and Hitler than Zylenski.

Prior to WW2 Lenin and Stalin deliberately starved millions of Ukrainians and deported millions to gulags so when a minor resistance group joined the Germans to fight Stalin it was more about Stalin's brutality than sympathy with fascism. This was 80 years ago and with almost zero nazi sympathizers in Ukraine and a popularly elected Jewish PM, this was simply a bullsh1t excuse by Putin along with Ukrainians being devil worshippers etc.

The destruction of the Russian army is about the most just use of arms in modern history. Russia now has the second most powerful army in Ukraine and already is far less of a threat to its neighbours than ever before.

Russia is losing this war.

There was never any justification for Putin to invade Ukraine other than he thought he could get away with it.

SM

Whatever. I've lost interest. You stick with it. I'm sure that your persistence will bring things to an end. I can't see why you haven't got Russia out of Ukraine already. I'm not on the Koolaid, but you must be into some good stuff.

I am into the good stuff, it's called fact-checking.

You should try it.

Shadow Minister,

What's happening with Putin's invasion of the
Ukraine it is inevitable that historical references
are going to be made for a better understanding of
the situation.

An understanding of the roles played by Lenin,
Stalin, Hitler, Molotov, Ribbentrop, Rudenko, and other
authors of one of the greatest genocides in history is
essential to the comprehension of the issues which we
are faced with today. War crimes against humanity should
be of concern to us all.

Robert Conquest wrote the book "The Harvest of Sorrow"
on the Ukrainian famine - showing the world how the
USSR policy of mass murder preceded that of Nazi Germany,
most notably with the artificial Ukrainian famine of 1932-33.

There is no dispute about the enormity of HItler's
Holocaust. But it is equally important to be as aware of
the accomplishments of the Soviet regime, which
brought death to at least four times as many people.
Putin is following the behavior of his Soviet
predecessors.

Thank you for raising this topic for discussion.

Canada's House Speaker apologises for praising Ukrainian who fought for Nazis
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66908958

Looks like Zelensky is quite pleased, seen with smiles and raised fist with the honouring of the former Waffen SS member

Shame on you.

Defending Putin's actions consistently.

SM

Your "fact checking" apparently isn't up to answering my question about any polls on the Australian people's support for Ukraine. You say that 65% of Americans support helping Ukraine, but you can't produce figures for our own country - which is more important to us than what Americans think.

Well … Australian support slipped from 52% in 2022 to 37% in 2023, and support in America is waning.

As Greg Copley - that's the bloke you sneered at - said: people are sick and tired of it; they are sick and tired of their money going to the Fourth Reich when they are doing it tough economically themselves; and it's only a matter of time before the West stops helping because "there is no point" in propping up Ukraine, the most corrupt country in Europe.

I'm not excusing Russia - I loathe Communism no matter where it lurks - Moscow, Beijing and, increasingly, Canberra; but I don’t like Nazis either; I don't care what happens between two nasty regimes.

But, China does. And China isn't going to stand back and see Russia go down. Then, what will America do? My feeling is that it won't stand up to China. It hasn't stood up to China since Donald Trump' s presidency.

ttbn

"WASHINGTON, June 28 (Reuters) - Solid majorities of Americans support providing weaponry to Ukraine to defend itself against Russia and believe that such aid demonstrates to China and other U.S. rivals a will to protect U.S. interests and allies, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey.

The two-day poll that was concluded on Tuesday charted a sharp rise in backing for arming Ukraine, with 65% of the respondents approving of the shipments compared with 46% in a May poll."

http://www.reuters.com/world/most-americans-support-us-arming-ukraine-reutersipsos-2023-06-28/

Also, there are no Nazis in Ukraine, that is BS made up by Putin to justify his illegal invasion.

Please show your justification for this BS claim of yours.

According to the Lowy Institute poll 2023 - The
Sydney Morning Herald, and other sources found on
the web, - Australians strongly support keeping
sanctions on Russia, providing military aid,
admitting Ukrainian refugees into Australia - in
other words they back Ukraine. They see the necessity
to do so.

SM

Stay calm now. What you say and what I say is not going to make any difference.

I accept 65% of Americans information. I asked you 'what about Australians'.

You did not respond. So, I looked up the information on the Lowey Institute and found, as I have already told you, Australian support slipped from 52% in 2022 to 37% in 2023.

But, you have decided that that is BS, along with my knowledge of the Nazi leanings of Ukraine. Like you rubbished Greg Copley who is the internationally respected author of lots of books. You, on the other hand, are a made-up name on a screen, like me, who posters know nothing about.

Like me, you might be and avid reader of all things political, but you never reference actual books, written by acknowledged doyens. You go for online stuff, including for heaven's sake, Reuters.

I'll stick with the experts. No disrespect to your emotional attachment to the situation.

Shadow Minister,

Here is the Lowy Institute poll figures:

http://poll.lowyinstitute.org/charts/australias-response-war-ukraine/

ttbn

The Lowy poll shows that 76% of Australians support Australia sending military support to Ukraine 37% strong support and 39% somewhat support.

The support in Europe etc is still strong, and if there is any hope on the Russian side that the allies will eventually abandon Ukraine it is highly misplaced.

The US and allies are now producing shells etc faster than the Russians and now M1 tanks and ATACMS rockets are being sent followed by F16 fighter planes that outmatch anything the Russians have.

Sanctions are now being applied to companies including Chinese companies that supply equipment to the Russians.

Russia is losing this war.

SM

Well, that's not what I read. Just goes to show you can't believe anyone these days. That's why it's a mistake to rely on the media and Google.

If Russia does lose the war, what do you think will happen after they lose? What will China do? Then, what will the U.S do, and so on? WW111?

I think that that the best scenario is for Russia to win. If China has to step in, it will be goodnight for everyone.

Taiwan is what Australia should be concerned about: in our region, threatened by our enemy.

Watch him play dumb.

Russian manufacturers are making up to 7 times as much ammunition as Western arms makers, Estonian defense official says
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ammunition-manufacturing-ukraine-west-officials-2023-9

As Ukraine flies through artillery rounds, U.S. races to keep up
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/19/artillery-ammunition-ukraine-pentagon/

"The Biden administration’s sprint to supply Ukraine with weapons central to its military success against Russia has yielded a promising acceleration of arms production, including the standard NATO artillery round, output of which is expected soon to reach double its prewar U.S. rate of 14,000 a month."

"Since February 2022, the Pentagon has concluded $2.26 billion of manufacturing contracts for the 155mm round, helping to increase U.S. output from 14,000 units a month before Russia’s invasion to around 24,000 per month today. Production is slated soon to reach 28,000 a month, with the goal of producing 1 million shells a year by fall 2025. Officials declined to say what share of that would go to Ukraine vs. being held in reserve in the United States."

Europe’s military industrial capabilities fall short of Ukraine’s needs
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/18/europe-weapons-military-industrial-base/
"Last year, the Ukrainian army was blasting through 180,000 artillery shell rounds per month. Before the war, U.S. production stood at 14,500 shells per month, and E.U. production was around the same. The United States has been faster to respond to depleting stockpiles, boosting domestic production to 20,000 rounds a month and investing in new capacity to eventually increase that to 90,000 rounds per month.
But Ukraine is still expending 90,000 to 140,000 rounds a month, according to Watling, while the newly announced E.U. investments in production could take one to two years to come online, despite a call by Thierry Breton, the European commissioner for the internal market, to move into 'war economy mode'."

"Russia is on course to produce 2.5 million artillery shell rounds this year, up from 1.7 million before the war, Watling said."

Do the maths.
Russia is producing 200,000 rounds a month right now (2.5 million per year) and is still ramping up, soon be 3M per year.
The US is hoping to produce 90,000 a month (1 million a year) by Autumn 2025.

This is not Russian propaganda (above), it's Business Insider and the Washington Post.

The Russian artillery advantage means the Ukrainians are taking 8 times as many losses as the Russians.

Putin: No Tangible Results from Ukraine's 'Counteroffensive', Kiev Suffering 71,000 in Losses
http://sputnikglobe.com/20230912/putin-says-there-are-no-results-of-ukraines-counteroffensive-kiev-losses-some-71000-1113303178.html

"According to President Vladimir Putin, Russian forces have destroyed 543 tanks and some 18,000 armored vehicles belonging to the Ukrainian military during the 'counteroffensive'."

71,000 men DEAD in 3 months and absolutely nothing to show for it.
The offensive failed, they've shown they aren't militarily capable of retaking territory.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is taking unsustainable losses, the government is on the verge of collapse if it doesn't get another 20 billion from the US, and there are moves to block this funding.

Rand Paul Issues Issues Stark Warning To Biden, Senate, & House About Ukraine Funding
http://youtu.be/qu0EcL-NK9U

NATO Chief Admits NATO Expansion Was Key to Russian Invasion of Ukraine
http://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/nato-chief-admits-expansion-behind-russian-invasion
- It seems he left out the fact of peace negotiations in March and April 2022, where the west deliberately scuttled peace negotiations, sending Boris Johnson in to tell Zelensky the West would support his war as long as it takes.

"The support in Europe etc is still strong, and if there is any hope on the Russian side that the allies will eventually abandon Ukraine it is highly misplaced."

http://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/07/13/rise-in-german-far-right-reflects-growing-sentiment-against-ukraine-war/

"The AfD’s rise in popularity also suggests that a growing percentage of the population believes that sanctions on Russian energy are hurting Germany’s economic interests. Opinion polls conducted a year ago revealed that half of Germans perceived sanctions were hurting Germany more than Russia.

Support for AfD additionally stems from reluctance to send weapons to Ukraine, since the party is known for being generally critical of the government’s support for the country. Back in January of this year, one poll found that 84 percent of AfD supporters opposed sending German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine."

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/27/germany-politics-far-right-afd-alternative-fur-deutschland-europe

"The AfD is also having an influence inside the establishment parties. Positions have already hardened on immigration. It has rallied resistance to recent climate laws and is undermining support for military aid to Ukraine."

Baldrick,

I see that once again you have crawled out from under your rock to parrot Russian propaganda.

The US Armoury has ramped up production to 100,000 shells a month and will hit 150,000 by December and 200,000 by mid-next year. This is not counting the shells made by the other 50 allied countries. Presently the shell supply to Ukrainians and Russians is pretty much equal. As for your figures on Ukrainian casualties, complete bullsh1t. Putin pulled these figures from his arse.

For an army that has been according to you on the verge of collapse for over a year it has been knocking the crap out of the Russian army.

Russia is losing this war.

The Ukrainians recently changed their tactics.
Russia has such superior drone surveillance and coverage, which they also use to get targeting cor-ordinates for artillery; that Ukraine is resorting to tactics of only sending 10-12 men on foot at at time to try to breach Russian lines. If they try to move larger groups with armoured vehicles etc they are quickly hit by Russian drones or artillery.
Russian drones have also been successfully targeting this infantry.

There's no way they can fight their way to Crimea like this, it's suicide.
Some have argued they'd need at least 300 tanks just to effectively breach the Russian line, but I'm not even sure that would be enough.

They'd have to go through minefields and open territory and it would be a turkey shoot for artillery, lancets and helicopters.

And on top of all these issues, the requirements of the Ukraine war is hindering US efforts to prepare for a war with China SM.

Looks like Ukraine only got 6 billion of the 24 billion asked.

"I see that once again you have crawled out from under your rock to parrot Russian propaganda."

I'd rather Russian propaganda than neoconservative bs any day of the week.
Why don't you take a holiday in Iraq and find me some WMDs you gullible fool.

They can fairly accurately estimate the total number of dead from both radio chatter, (notifying commanders when a person is killed and needing replacement) and drone surveillance of cemetery graves.
- Though counting graves doesn't cover all the men left in the fields to rot.

- But we won't let common sense and rational thinking get in the way of your Kagan commentry.

"The US Armoury has ramped up production to 100,000 shells a month..."
- You got any proof to go with that?

With China & North Korea waiting for the right moment to implement their agenda it's any bodys' game.
US & UK better hope Russia doesn't come up with hard evidence as to collusion on the attack in Crimea
The US and UK don't want a winner, they want confusion 'cos where there's confusion there's profit.
Japan & S.Korea are already making overtures to China to hedge their future.

Dear Ttbn,

«If Russia does lose the war, what do you think will happen after they lose? What will China do? Then, what will the U.S do, and so on? WW111?

I think that that the best scenario is for Russia to win. If China has to step in, it will be goodnight for everyone.

Taiwan is what Australia should be concerned about: in our region, threatened by our enemy.»

What do you think then, would China do if Russia WINS the war?

Would they not be encouraged saying "the West is weak and irresolute - Attack now!"?

If NATO fails to adequately defend Ukraine, then what makes you believe that eventually it will be willing to pay the hard price for adequately defending Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines and Australia?

By supporting a united NATO, Australia gets a chance of not needing to prove itself [or fail to prove itself] in Taiwan and next on its own shores.

SM said, in response to connection of Nazis with Ukraine: " .... there are no Nazis in Ukraine, that is BS made up by Putin to justify his illegal invasion".

SM does know whether there are any Nazis in Ukraine now. Nor do I. But my reference was to the provision of troops and concentration camp guards to Germany during WW11. Putin didn't make that up, and me might still be calling Ukrainians 'Nazis' as the Left all over the world calls anyone who are not Lefties, Nazis.

The fact remains, there were Ukrainians fighting with the Germans against Russia during WW11.

The fact of the matter has been highlighted in the Canadian Parliament by its gormless speaking telling the ex-comdedian Ukraine president who was in the Parliament (probably after more money and arns) that there was a Ukraine-Canadian in the house who fought the Russians, as Ukraine is now, in WW11. He was in the House.

The very elderly man stood and took a bow to applause.

It transpires that the bloke did fight for Germany against Russia (then an ally of ours) as an SS trooper; and we all know how they behaved, mainly executing civilians.

The Speaker made a right fool of himself.

"The fact remains, there were Ukrainians fighting with the Germans against Russia during WW11."

This was the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS. They weren't front line troops, they were SS and they set about ethically cleansing Poles and Jews, as the Ukrainian nationalists believed in an ethnically pure Ukrainian state.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14th_Waffen_Grenadier_Division_of_the_SS_(1st_Galician)

"After World War I and the dissolution of Austria-Hungary, the territory of Eastern Galicia (Halychyna), populated by a Ukrainian majority but with a large Polish minority, was incorporated into Poland following the Polish–Ukrainian War. Between the wars, Ukrainians in eastern Galicia were politically represented by the moderate national democrats; a small number supported the more radical Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists. The latter group itself splintered into two factions, the more moderate OUN-M led by Andriy Melnyk (which had ties to German intelligence, Abwehr), and the more radical OUN-B led by Stepan Bandera."

Now that you have that info, read this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia

The massacres of Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia were carried out in German-occupied Poland by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) with the support of parts of the local Ukrainian population against the Polish minority in Volhynia, Eastern Galicia, parts of Polesia and Lublin region from 1943 to 1945. The peak of the massacres took place in July and August 1943. The massacres were exceptionally brutal and affected primarily women and children. The UPA's actions resulted in up to 100,000 deaths. Other victims of the massacres included several hundred Jews, Russians, Czechs, Georgians, and Ukrainians who were part of Polish families or opposed the UPA and sabotaged the massacres by hiding Polish escapees."

[Cont.]

"The ethnic cleansing was a Ukrainian attempt to prevent the post-war Polish state from asserting its sovereignty over Ukrainian-majority areas that had been part of the pre-war Polish state. The decision to force the Polish population to leave the areas considered by the Banderite faction of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN-B) to be Ukrainian took place at a meeting of military referents in the autumn of 1942, and it was planned to liquidate the leaders of the Polish community and those who would resist. Local UPA commanders in Volhynia, joining the armed uprising against the Germans, began attacking the Polish population, carrying out massacres in many villages."

You notice the common factor here is Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists led by Stepan Bandera, and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army.

Flag of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_the_Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army

Now that you've seen that, take a look at this.
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/10/15/ckti-o15.html

See the red and black flag (blood and soil) similar to the Ukrainian Insurgent Army flag?
- The flag shown is the flag for Right Sector.
See the portrait of Stepan Bandera on the wall?
See the busts on the desk.

They're not German Nazis, they're Ukrainian ones.

Canada got into an embarrassing situation recently after their parliament had a standing ovation to one of the members 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS, aged 92 to honour Zelensky.
Watch the footage and you'll see him with a closed fist salute to the former SS member.

Canadian Parliament gives WWII Nazi standing ovation
http://youtu.be/d7sFxJbcYvg

Canada parliament speaker resigns after calling Ukrainian Nazi veteran a ‘hero’
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/26/anthony-rota-canada-resigns-nazi-parliament

I see now you've already seen that story ttbn.
Yes there are Ukrainian NAZI's
These nationalists are tied in with Right Sector and Sbovoda Party.

You'll see that flag from the office of General Zaluzhnyi (Ukraine’s Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces) shown here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_Sector

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_(political_party)

These groups are the opposition the US worked with to oust democratically elected Victor Yanokovych during the 2014 Maidan.
The shooters during the Maidan were members of these groups.

Multicultural Canada’s Dirty Nazi Secret
http://compactmag.com/article/multicultural-canada-s-dirty-nazi-secret

"Vladimir Putin was handed a massive propaganda victory. He can now point to footage of a NATO member’s parliament honoring a Waffen SS veteran as proof of his narrative that Russia is fighting a sacred war against Western-backed Nazis in Ukraine."

ttbn,

That there were Ukrainians that fought with the Nazis to liberate Ukraine from the Soviet Union that had callously murdered millions of Ukrainians 80 years ago is not in dispute. Neither is that far more Ukrainians fought against the Germans than for them. Today, Claiming that Ukraine is full of Nazis is an outright lie as would be claiming that Australia is run by Nazis because there are a few neo-fascists.

The only reason for the Nazi claim to give some legitimacy to the illegal invasion.

"The only reason for the Nazi claim to give some legitimacy to the illegal invasion."

- The invasion already had legitimacy in my book.
Putin told them 15 tears ago, that Ukraine NATO was a red line.
He said he would take Crimea if the West proceeded down this path.

NYET MEANS NYET
http://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html

1. (C) Summary. Following a muted first reaction to
Ukraine's intent to seek a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP)
at the Bucharest summit (ref A), Foreign Minister Lavrov and
other senior officials have reiterated strong opposition,
stressing that Russia would view further eastward expansion
as a potential military threat. NATO enlargement,
particularly to Ukraine, remains "an emotional and neuralgic"
issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also
underlie strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and
Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue
could potentially split the country in two, leading to
violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force
Russia to decide whether to intervene. Additionally, the GOR
and experts continue to claim that Ukrainian NATO membership
would have a major impact on Russia's defense industry,
Russian-Ukrainian family connections, and bilateral relations
generally.

Russia told them, they knew, the US went ahead and did it anyway on purpose knowing damn well Russia would be forced to react.

You had the US spend 5 billion to fund and empower opposition groups to start a coup and start shooting up innocent protestors in the Maidan.
With aims to also make the Black Sea Naval base in Sevastopol which Russia has occupied since 1783 a NATO base and deprive Russia of a southern port.

Then Ukraine burned hundreds of ethnic-Russians alive in the Odessa Trade building, and labelled as terrorists the separatists (Ukrainian ethnic-Russian citizens) who didn't want to go along with Washington's new Ukrainian puppet ruler.

Then they spent the next 8 years bombing hospitals, cafes and kindergardens killing too many women and kids to count.

Putin was reluctant to support them.
He spent years trying to find an alternative path.
What do you think Minsk was?
The West is obsessed with war, (that's why they wouldn't let Zelensky negotiate a peace agreement a month after the war started) The US poked and prodded Russia to get them to act, and they thought they would bring Russia down with sanctions, cause civil unrest and Putin's ousting.
These have been their aims all along.
The West is the aggressor.

If you shell, bomb, drop mines in a civilian area and murder a segment of your own population for 8 years, you lose any right to rule over them.
Then eventually Putin accepted the Donbass region calls for independence, and entered the war under the pretext of collective self-defence.

- And here we are, half a million dead later, a country laid to waste, and western governments giving standing ovations to NAZI SS in their parliaments.

And you want to know why what Zelensky and Canada recently did wasn't an accident?
- Because it's not a random event, not the first time it's happened.

When Zelensky Brought a Nazi to the Greek Parliament
http://consortiumnews.com/2023/09/27/when-zelensky-brought-a-nazi-to-the-greek-parliament/

Zelensky is being pushed out by the US.
The west wants to freeze the conflict, and if they can't get Zelensky to negotiate, then he's got to go.
Expect elections for the purpose of removing Zelensky.

I don't know how you do your little pansy dance SM and tiptoe around all these inconvenient facts month after month.
Newsflash - Iraq didn't have any WMD's.

The only thing you've bought into is a false narrative by omission of the facts.
And you should be old and wise enough to know better.

Ain't that right charter boat?

Baldrick,

You are the one doing a poofter dance around the inconvenient facts.

Ukraine is an independent country and Russia signed an agreement to guarantee Ukraine's borders and sovereignty. Ukraine has never threatened Russia or given Russia any excuse to invade Crimea or Donbas.

Up until the 24th Feb 22 Russia promised that it had no intention of invading Ukraine so Russia cannot be trusted not to lie through its teeth.

The misery of Russians is entirely Putin's fault.

Russia is losing this war.

Baldrick,

You claimed: "The West wants to freeze the conflict, and if they can't get Zelensky to negotiate, then he's got to go."

What bollocks. The West if anything is rubbing its hands in glee as the smaller Ukrainian army is using cast-off Western weapons to shred the Russian army and bankrupt the Putin regime.

The only people wanting to freeze the conflict are the Russians who are losing the war.

That may have been one of your most unintelligent comments yet.
- Though your earlier 'poofter dance' comment was amusing. Lol

Western officials press Ukraine to hold elections despite war
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/24/ukraine-elections-war-russia-west/

The proposal — initially floated by Tiny Kox, the Dutch head of the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly — was also pressed by Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), during a visit to Kyiv last month with Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), which otherwise focused on solidifying U.S. assistance and bipartisan support for Ukraine.

[Tiny Kox. Had to wonder whether someone was pulling my leg with a name like that]

Tell me then why is a man who loves to provide support to opposition groups during US overthrows and who has openly called for Putin's assassination suddenly supporting Ukrainian elections?

'Take him out': Graham intensifies calls to assassinate Putin
http://youtu.be/UoRojyazmQc

The answer is because the West wants to freeze the conflict like it did in Korea after its proxies counter-offensive failed spectacularly.

If Zelensky wont accept the loss of territory, and freeze the conflict, the US needs a new puppet ruler.

Zelensky has almost used up his usefulness anyway.

But that said Russia won't stop now while Ukraine is on the back foot and they hold the initiative.

This articles a few months old, but it shows that even then Russia knows the wests game.
https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1894785/

Lavrov "In my opinion, they are trying to temporarily freeze this conflict, secure a ceasefire and bide their time, so they can again flood Ukraine with weapons, create new military infrastructure and transfer new long-range lethal weapons. At least, this scenario is favoured by American political scientists. Recently, Foreign Affairs published an article by Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan, who described exactly this scenario: achieving a cessation of fire and having a respite. Of course, Russia will also get a respite but Ukraine has the entire West behind it. So, they argue, the West will make Ukraine much stronger and then they will continue to achieve the goals stated in Vladimir Zelensky’s 'peace formula.'

When the west says Russia wont negotiate, they are actually saying 'Russia will not accept our terms, which is the Zelensky Peace Plan' which is not a peace plan, but the equivalent of total Russian capitulation including Russian officials and Putin all taken into custody for war crimes by pro-western people in pro-western courts.

The west failed with sanctions, failed to cause civil unrest in Russia and oust Putin.
Failed with the military counter-offensive to take back territory.

Now it has a near-broken and totally demoralised Ukrainian military who may have to face a Russian counter-offensive with hundreds of thousands of fresh fully trained troops and Ukraine will likely lose significant troop numbers and territory and the US will be left red-faced, with NATO nations thinking the US can't defend them.

The US knows the Ukrainians can't win, can't reach their military goal of taking back lost territory, and they figure that if winning is off the table, then they simply need a new strategy that prevents Ukraine and the West from losing outright, and a need to rebuild weapons stockpiles and focus on preparing for a confrontation with China.

The US needs an off ramp, but the off ramp has now been closed.

Meanwhile...

The Global Economy Won’t Survive THIS - Russia & Saudi Are Forcing The Unthinkable
http://youtu.be/5-PQAPfkkv4

Baldrick,

"Russia won't stop now while Ukraine is on the back foot and they hold the initiative." What a joke, Russia is retreating on just about every front.

Even Lavrov according to your quote realises that Russia can't beat Ukraine when it is supplied by the entire West. That the EU has just pledged another $2.4bn in arms supplies, another $1bn from Canada and potentially another $40bn from the US.

Ukraine's cruise missiles can hit anywhere in occupied Ukraine and the remains of Russia's black sea fleet have fled Crimea and are now cowering in Russian ports Russia's airforce has also retreated from Crimea after losing many planes on the ground.

Russia is going backwards. Ukraine is now matching Russia's artillery firing with far more accurate and deadly equipment with M1 tanks, F16s and ATACMS arriving shortly.

Russia is losing this war.

"What a joke, Russia is retreating on just about every front."

I don't know how you can possibly come to those conclusions.
There have been no significant changes on the war map whatsoever for months.
Where is Russia retreating?
Can you or anyone else on this forum show on any war map where exactly Russia is retreating?

Russian lines stronger than West expected, admits British defence chief
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-defensive-lines-stronger-than-west-expected-admits-british-defence-chief-xjlvqrm86

It's as if you dispute what even your own western media is saying
(I say that since you always give me that crap about Russian propaganda)
You know what that headline above should say?
'Western Military Experts Fail To Anticipate Strength of Russian Defensive Lines'

When Ukraine gathers together all the weapons it can get its hands on for a well advertised offensive, and achieves nothing, then that's a Ukrainian and Western FAILURE.

And if Russia successfully stops this Ukrainian offensive and it fails to achieve its objectives than that's a Russian SUCCESS.

The West has failed at every turn, has shown its complete incompetence in its planning and expectations in achieving ANY of its objectives.

"Even Lavrov according to your quote realises that Russia can't beat Ukraine when it is supplied by the entire West."
Ok, which part of that quote exactly made you come to that conclusion?
- I didn't see any part where he alluded to Russian military capabilities, and I don't know how you possibly got that from what he said.
He was giving his opinion of western military plans;
He alluded to assumptions and arguments made by Western political scientists who publish in Foreign Affairs magazine.

"That the EU has just pledged another $2.4bn in arms supplies, another $1bn from Canada and potentially another $40bn from the US."

You do realise you have to take these numbers into context and also understand that theres a difference between the west starting a contract to produce weapons and the west actually supplying them, as well as the fact that the whole entire Ukrainian government needs to be funded by the west just to exist.

The West has spent 100 - 200 billion trying to defend Ukraine.
And western arms manufacturers charge about $6000 for a standard 155mm shell, while Russia produces its own 152mm shells for $600 to $800.

The west is years away from matching what Russia is already producing now, and by then Russia will be producing a whole lot more.
Right now not only can the West not match Russian production, they can't even get adequate supplies of the explosives to make them.

Explosives shortage threatens EU drive to arm Ukraine
http://www.ft.com/content/aee0e1a1-c464-4af9-a1c8-73fcbc46ed17
Scarce gunpowder and TNT supplies delay shift to ‘large-scale war production’, defence industry and officials warn

So your EU money is a contract is for weapons yet to be produced against the backdrop of an explosives shortage.
Your Canadian government money is C$1Bln loan via IMF to help keep the Ukrainian government running and C$500M pledge, yet they have no anti-tank missiles, small arms or ammunition left to send.
And Ukraine is so far from getting all it wants from the US it's not funny.
The US is borrowing from China to do this!
They tried to tie the money for Ukraine into the bill for the US government shutdown.

And Russia is blowing up 4 or 5 million euro tanks with $1000 FPV's, and blowing the crap out everything with precision guided glide bombs and TOS 1A thermobaric weapons.

Ukraine is fighting a propaganda war, like we're in a Hollywood movie.
Raising the flag on Crimea, Attacking the Crimean bridge, Attacking naval ships in drydock and civilian targets in Moscow and elsewhere.

None of this shite changes the fact that Ukraine is unable to retake territory, faces a shortage of troops, weapons, ammunition and everything else.

The F16s, I doubt Ukrainians will be flying them, they can't understand English to enable western instructors to train them.
- But they will get blown out of the sky by Russian integrated air and missile defence either way, and I look forward to the footage of ABRAMS burning and blowing up;
- which is inevitable (and sad for the poor blokes forced to be in them), but will be an embarrassment for the US.

Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have surrendered you know.
You don't get well motivated troops when you drag them off the street and pistol whip them until they sign their conscription papers.

Hi AC,

What happened to the 150k troops and equipment that Russia committed to the Northern offensive?

The Ukrainians are doing what they can with what they have. They have been effective at picking off troops, hardware and ordinance with precision strikes. Russia still has lots of equipment, but they continue to lose it at an unsustainable rate. I see a lot of sense in the Ukrainians continuing to pick off the Russian forces as they have been. Cluster munitions have put a stop to the Russian meat wave tactics and the shortage of electronic warfare equipment and artillery rounds is limiting their defensive capability. The availability of better air support and longer range precision weapons for Ukraine will only make things worse for Russia.

Hi Fester,
That's a damn good question actually.
I'm not entirely sure that Russia ever did commit that many troops to it, I think the Ukrainians started screaming about it themselves first and it may have been over exaggerated in order to get the west to send them more weapons.
Russia certainly hasn't made any convincing moves on Kupiansk as was anticipated.

Hi AC,

Yes, fog of war. Not a good view from the peanut gallery, but safe from stray bullets at least. One of my nephews is engaged to a girl from Eastern Europe, and on a visit to the family recently my brother and sister in law found the solidarity with Ukrainians to be deep and strong.

It's a horrible conflict. No obscurity over that point.

There's some good backstory on Ukrainian nationalism in the following video.

Nazi Debacle a HUGE DEFEAT for NATO's Ukraine War
http://youtu.be/fu38JBzLkfc

I was digging around a bit.
I wanted to show more evidence that many Ukrainians do seem to have NAZI leanings.
Here's a photo of Ukrainians marching with the Waffen SS emblem.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds-in-ukraine-attend-marches-celebrating-nazi-ss-soldiers/

Which lead me to this...

http://www.jta.org/quick-reads/in-ukraine-far-right-protesters-demand-israel-apologize-for-communist-oppression

I couldn't help be amused by the irony.

"After Israel’s ambassador to Ukraine condemned the honoring of Nazi collaborators in the former Soviet republic, dozens of people rallied outside the Israeli Embassy in Kyiv demanding that Jews apologize for Soviet oppression.

The far-right activists called on Israel and the Jews to assume responsibility specifically for Holodomor, a famine that killed millions of Ukrainians in the 1930s and is widely believed to have been caused by the government of Joseph Stalin, then the leader of the Soviet Union."

- It seems that some some of these Ukrainian nationalists blame the Jews for the rise of communism.

Hi Fester,
"One of my nephews is engaged to a girl from Eastern Europe, and on a visit to the family recently my brother and sister in law found the solidarity with Ukrainians to be deep and strong."

I think when I originally spoke on this topic, or maybe in the years prior to, I often spoke on what my real gripe was.

My motivation for choosing sides was never about loving Russians and hating Ukrainians or vice versa, it was in opposition to sanctions and overthrows and an endless war mentality by the United States and its vassal state minions.

As for this conflict, I wish it never happened and that no-one had lost their lives due to some underhanded agenda to stir up trouble.

Here's a good read, more details about the event.

A Year of Lying About Nord Stream
http://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/a-year-of-lying-about-nord-stream

Soverignty and Liberal Intervention

http://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/chapter-1

United Nations Article 2

1. The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.

SOVERIGN!!

If a foreign nation DELIBERATELY seeks to cause civil unrest for the purposes of replacing a government,
- Then which part of this act is respectful to UN law regarding nations soverignty?

Overthrowing other people’s governments: The Master List

Instances of the United States overthrowing, or attempting to overthrow, a foreign government since the Second World War. (* indicates successful ouster of a government)

This list needs to be updated as other overthrows and potential western sponsored coups have occurred since then.

China 1949 to early 1960s
Albania 1949-53
East Germany 1950s
Iran 1953 *
Guatemala 1954 *
Costa Rica mid-1950s
Syria 1956-7
Egypt 1957
Indonesia 1957-8
British Guiana 1953-64 *
Iraq 1963 *
North Vietnam 1945-73
Cambodia 1955-70 *
Laos 1958 *, 1959 *, 1960 *
Ecuador 1960-63 *
Congo 1960 *
France 1965
Brazil 1962-64 *
Dominican Republic 1963 *
Cuba 1959 to present
Bolivia 1964 *
Indonesia 1965 *
Ghana 1966 *
Chile 1964-73 *
Greece 1967 *
Costa Rica 1970-71
Bolivia 1971 *
Australia 1973-75 *
Angola 1975, 1980s
Zaire 1975
Portugal 1974-76 *
Jamaica 1976-80 *
Seychelles 1979-81
Chad 1981-82 *
Grenada 1983 *
South Yemen 1982-84
Suriname 1982-84
Fiji 1987 *
Libya 1980s
Nicaragua 1981-90 *
Panama 1989 *
Bulgaria 1990 *
Albania 1991 *
Iraq 1991
Afghanistan 1980s *
Somalia 1993
Yugoslavia 1999-2000 *
Ecuador 2000 *
Afghanistan 2001 *
Venezuela 2002 *
Iraq 2003 *
Haiti 2004 *
Somalia 2007 to present
Honduras 2009 *
Libya 2011 *
Syria 2012
Ukraine 2014 *

Does anyone here want to tell me which part of this trail of death is consistent with respecting the soverignty of nations?

[Cont.]

You cant have a bloody list of overthrows that long, and claim to be acting within International Law.

"Article 1
2. To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, and to take other appropriate measures to strengthen universal peace;"

- The people of the Donbass wanted independence and self determination after the Ukrainian 2014 coup, (that immediately set about changing language laws) and after the Minsk agreements were not negotiated in good faith.

Was this situation consistent with the idea of equal rights?
Is it consistent with self-determination?

Putin first tried for internal right to self determination (Minsk)
- When that failed he was left no choice in regards to the rights of ethnic Russians to accept their wish for independence,
i.e external right to self determination.

The Rules-Based-Order is not the same as International Law
Is the United States really keeping to the agreed upon rules decided after the end of WWII?

- Not in any way, shape or form.

Liberal Interventions are not at all aligned with the idea of respect for nations soverignty.

Baldrick

Once again, just about everything you post is either complete Bullsh1t or regurgitated Russian propaganda. Only a mindless Buffoon would post that list of countries that the US tried to overthrow.

For example, I don't recall the US trying to overthrow the Australian government. Next time read before you post stuff that is clearly a lie otherwise you look like a moron.

If you want to see where Russians are running away:

https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/47.2273/35.9267

"Once again, just about everything you post is either complete Bullsh1t or regurgitated Russian propaganda."
Only because you're aligned with neoconservative thinking, that you would kiss the grave of John McCain and get down on your knees for either Lindsay Graham or Joe Biden.

You're a deep state Uni-party man.

Russian propaganda. Lol.
Lunatics like you have flogged that horse to death.

Somehow Canada has a standing ovation to a NAZI SS veteran, and it's 'Russian propaganda'
- It's not propaganda at all, Poland has sought to extradite
http://www.politico.eu/article/yaroslav-hunka-poland-extradite-ukrainian-ss-veteran-canada/
And there's no way that guy gets into the house of commons without being vetted.
They knew who he was, but they were so dumb (or thought we were) that they thought no-one would notice.

Great to see all this infighting between those who argued that a united front against Russia was paramount.

Poland and others at odds with Ukraine over the grain deal
- Says they will not send any more weapons to Ukraine
Poland at odds with Canada over NAZI war criminals
- Looks like the united front is crumbling to me.
US government shutdown dramas over Ukraine funding.
European countries facing de-industrialisation and recession.
(And Russia and Saudi Arabia working to cut oil supply to cause western economies to continue raising interest rates.)

Tell me SM, does your man Trudeau have a vagina?

"On the same day, in response to the questions from Blanchet and Singh, Trudeau said it was horrible to see Moscow exploit the mistake made in the House of Commons last week."

- It was perfectly fine to crap over everyone in the freedom convoy, acting like a NAZI himself but now he's all soft pansy voiced "Why are they being so mean"

"Next time read before you post stuff that is clearly a lie otherwise you look like a moron."
The jokes on you dipshite, try googling it before you post stuff.
It's not like you have to go to the library and search old archives.

The British-American coup that ended Australian independence
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/23/gough-whitlam-1975-coup-ended-australian-independence

Your deep state map doesn't show Russians running away.
Russia can fall back and rain hell on the attacking Ukies if need be, no problem.
Say hello to TOS 1A.

All the west and Ukraine has are these pissweak efforts to control and frame the narrative because the house of cards would collapse otherwise.
- Because there's no bloody chance in hell you'll make it to Crimea.

What it shows is that Ukraine just continues to throw it's troops lives away sending them on suicide missions.
http://youtu.be/n5jn_fIskC0&t=693

This isn't winning.
It's complete stupidity.

Baldrick,

I am still waiting for you to explain when the US tried to overthrow the Australian government dipshite, the sacking of the Whitlam government had absolutely nothing to do with the US. Pilger is a moron that blames everything on the US and sees conspiracy theories everywhere.

TOS 1A seems to be your answer for everything, the only problem is that they only have a range of 3km, and so are easily found and destroyed. I haven't seen one in action since several were destroyed attacking Vuhledar.

The Russians have thrown 1000s of soldiers including VDV against Robotyne and Klishivka and have nothing to show for it except fields of Rotting Russians and burnt-out tanks.

As for reaching Crimea, the lack of water, the landings on Crimea and the devastation on the Sevastopol harbour the ships, the airfields and the Kursh bridge are starting to make keeping Crimea untenable for the Russian invaders.

Russia is losing this war.

"Pilger is a moron that blames everything on the US and sees conspiracy theories everywhere."
Well that's what a loyal US lapdog like yourself would be expected to say, right?

"As for reaching Crimea, the lack of water, the landings on Crimea and the devastation on the Sevastopol harbour the ships, the airfields and the Kursh bridge are starting to make keeping Crimea untenable for the Russian invaders."
- Is that what you think?
In truth Crimea is about an 'untenable' to Russians as Moscow is you fool.
Nukes will fall before they ever give it up.

- But in response to your scenario, it's nothing a Sarmat missile can't fix, is it?

Tell me if Russia wiped Ukraine off the map today,
Would the UK and the US risk losing London and Washington to retaliate?

You keep thinking you got something, when you got nothing.
Luckily Russia doesn't have to do anything at all, except to continue grinding away until Ukraine collapses, which might not be all that much longer.

Wonder how Europe will go this winter?
The small cracks in the facade of unity might start becoming bigger when Europeans can't afford their heating bills.
You think the increasing US opposition to Ukraine funding is going to go away?
Who will they send to fight when they run out of women, kids, elderly and handicapped?
(Because they've already been sending them)

Why don't you go cheer on some NAZIs or something...
(Canada's NAZI PARLIAMENT antics were a gift which will never get old)
- Talk about shite the bed.

I can't wait until my friend from Canada pops in during the week.
I'll ask her if all Canadians are NAZI sympathizers.
I may have to give her the NAZI salute.
Canada's NEVER going to live this down.

WELL THIS IS REALLY INTERESTING
I guess Australia loves NAZI's too.
Order of Australia medal no less.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Romaniw

I swear western countries are just half-way houses for foreign political dissidents.

Baldrick,

You are the loyal Russian lapdog parroting the obvious lies dribbling out of the Russian MOD. According to you, Russia has killed every Ukrainian soldier 4x over destroyed 5000 of their 1000 tank etc.

Russia retreated from Afghanistan after losing 15000 troops and bankrupting the country, so far Russia has had over 100,000 troops killed lost most of their tanks many aircraft and ships and their economy is in a tailspin.

If Russia can't use Crimea for shipping or airfields and they are always losing equipment and men, how long will they stay?

As for your pathetic Nuclear threat, the West has many ways to make Russia pay and can glass over the entire Russian country if needs be.

Russia is losing this war.

"the West has many ways to make Russia pay and can glass over the entire Russian country if needs be."

Interesting, and what may those 'ways' be?
Please share with us what will happen as European countries realise that their economies will fail if the present circumstances continue and they need to buy energy from the US at US prices.
The US and the UK may fight this war down to the last Ukranian but it's the Ukrainians that are going to wake up to the senseless destruction and realise it's between two short men with Napoleon complexes.
The US and UK don't want Russia to loose, they want to be able to contain it, and by using the Ukrainians.
They didn't do too well in Afghanistan and Iraq so they'll use the Ukrainans, after all, whose making money out of this war?

"but it's the Ukrainians that are going to wake up to the senseless destruction and realise it's between two short men with Napoleon complexes"

Is that how you perceive a country defending itself against against an unprovoked invasion? Russia could withdraw its forces at any time and the conflict would cease. Trying to suggest that somehow Ukraine has provoked the conflict just buys into the Russian propaganda. What Putin fears is being surrounded by prosperous democracies that were formerly corrupt and destitute kleptocracies.

"Special" Devilry,

Fester got it in one. Ukraine didn't start this war and surrendering will subject all its people to the brutality and gennocide that Russia is inflicting on the areas it has occupied.

With the advanced weapons the west has delivered to Ukraine, it looks more like the war will be fought to the last Russian. I believe that Putin is going for a second "partial mobilistion" because the 400 000 he previously mobilised are either dead or broken.

Russia is losing this war.

Ukraine wants to join NATO, which means that NATO, could get up to the Russian border. Russia doesn't want that to happen. Simple.

In the meantime, what effect has all the expertise of OLO armchair warriors has on the conflict?

Who gives a shite!

Save it all for when China attacks Taiwan. That will really affect us, unlike far-away Ukraine whose only connection to Australia is Ukrainians coming here to escape what most Ukrainians enduring. They don't care. Neither should we.

"Fester got it in one. Ukraine didn't start this war and surrendering will subject all its people to the brutality and genocide that Russia is inflicting on the areas it has occupied."

Go back to dreamland and take your neocon bs with you.
The war started in 2014 after a US coup.

Only history revisionists and total bullcrappers think the war started when Russia invaded.
What about genocide that was waged against the people of the Donbass for 8 years?
Charter boat is the perfect name for you SM
You live up to it every single time.

Do you want me to show you the documents prior to 2022?
You know I can but I know you'd never acknowledge anything that goes against your masters.

This whole mess has been a matter of US policy since back before 2008.
- When Putin said NYET to further NATO expansion.

Even Jens Stoltenberg the head of NATO said exactly that.
Read it for yourselves
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_218172.htm?selectedLocale=en

"The background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement. That was what he sent us. And was a pre-condition for not invade Ukraine. Of course we didn't sign that.

The opposite happened. He wanted us to sign that promise, never to enlarge NATO. He wanted us to remove our military infrastructure in all Allies that have joined NATO since 1997, meaning half of NATO, all the Central and Eastern Europe, we should remove NATO from that part of our Alliance, introducing some kind of B, or second class membership. We rejected that.

So he went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders."

You think you know more than the head of bloody NATO now?

"Please share with us what will happen as European countries realise that their economies will fail if the present circumstances continue and they need to buy energy from the US at US prices."

They are failing, in fact they're completely stuffed truth be told.

Germany Freaks Out - China, Please Save Our Economy!
http://youtu.be/ctryU-IOdGE

China and U.S. headed for all out war, and Putin knows it
http://youtu.be/NfWlyw5I0Cc

Looks like it might be about time to start turning my attention away from the entree and start looking at the main course.

Ukraine made a bid to join NATO this time last year.

No luck yet.

Ukraine was told by NATO that it had to defeat Russia first.

If Ukraine was in NATO now, NATO would have to join the fight against Russia.

NATO member states have already helped Ukraine with weapons.

Ukraine doesn't meet the economic, military and political standards required for membership.

All members must agree to admit Ukraine - or any other country - and that's currently not happening.

It is believed that admitting Ukraine to NATO would 'make Putin's day' in the propaganda stakes.

Get rid of the ex-comedian poncing around the world and pretending to be a leader and do a deal with Russia is the thing to do.

ttbn,

Ukraine wanted to join NATO Duh! To stop Russia from attacking it of course. Note that Russia would not dare to attack Estonia because it would then get smashed by NATO. That you don't care for a small country being invaded and brutalised by its tyrannical neighbour says more about you than Ukraine.

AC,

You are right, Russia's unprovoked attack on Crimea started in 2014 when Russia who'd signed a treaty to honour and protect Ukraine's borders decided that Ukraine was becoming too independent and invaded.

However, with help from the West, and its supply of weapons of ever-increasing lethality, Russia has culminated and is desperately trying to hold onto its ill-gotten gains while suffering losses of men and materiel at an unsustainable rate.

Like in Afghanistan Russia will eventually slink away defeated after hundreds of 1000s of young Russian men have died.

This is not a war that Russia can possibly win.

Hi AC,

As an example of Russian propaganda take the example of the Canadian parliament mistakenly honouring a Ukrainian who served with the SS. For the Russian media it was enough to prove Ukraine a nazi regime along with Canada.

It is no secret that many Ukrainians welcomed the end of Stalin's tyranny, but it didn't take them long to realise that the Nazis were no better.

SM

I'll leave you to make your own decisions on what my opinions 'say about' me - the obvious things being that I don't agree with you, and I find your obsession with a far away conflict pointless.

Referring back to your comments on the number of Americans (irrelevant to Australians) who support Ukraine, and the considerably fewer Australians who approve of Albanese's big noting himself with our money and military equipment, I point out that when people are canvassed about anything, they will mostly say what they think is 'nice', or what the government says. Polls on the Russia/Ukraine conflict mean bugger-all.

Let’s see what you have to say when China invades Taiwan, which is something that really will affect Australia.

Unless you are Ukrainian, your interest in this spat is just a busybody waste of time that will have no effect on the results of the conflict. You can "duh" all you like.

I watched this video before that explained why Ukrainian nationalists joined the German NAZIs.

Ukrainian SS In Britain - Postwar SS-Galizien Division Refugees
http://youtu.be/UB_Gs-0dhOo

"In German-occupied Ukraine the Germans discovered many men sympathetic to the Nazi cause or more particularly adherents of a brand of Ukrainian nationalism that was opposed to Soviet communism and sought an independent Ukrainian state many of these groups saw the German occupation of Ukraine as the beginning their own National dream and by cooperating with the occupiers they might promote Independence or at least some kind of autonomy under Hitler's rule."

Very interesting that word 'Automomy', sounds like the 'Minsk agreements' doesn't it?

Canada knowingly admitted 2,000 Ukrainian SS members after World War II
http://www.jta.org/1997/06/05/global/canada-knowingly-admitted-ss-members-after-world-war-ii
(They knew who they were celebrating recently)

I also know that Britain took 12000 of them after the war.
Ritter says that some of the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS came to Australia but I haven't dug up much as yet.
I know there was a post-war Ukrainian diaspora to Australia some of which may have worked on railways but I don't have much more info.

Watched a really good video last night but it's slow to start and quite long.
CAN THE UKRAINE CONFLICT BE ENDED WITH NEGOTIATIONS?
http://www.youtube.com/live/7_d8FGkV_Bw

"Russia's unprovoked"
Stop lying.
It's the same rubbish as 'Putin wants to recreate the Soviet empire and conquer western Europe'.
They are just tropes to bolster the western narrative.

You can go and beat your drum to all the other gullible people but I know enough about this topic to know it's bs.

"Russia has culminated".
Yeah right, whatever you say mash potato brain.

"This is not a war that Russia can possibly win."
- This conflict shouldn't be seen in isolation.
We're moving towards something much bigger, and in our neck of the woods.
I honestly think WW3 is coming.

China and U.S. headed for all out war, and Putin knows it
http://youtu.be/NfWlyw5I0Cc

You want to know why Russian opposition to NATO on their doorstep is completely reasonable?
- BECAUSE ITS EXACTLY HOW WE WOULD REACT

Let's say China entered into a defensive agreement with all ASEAN nations, how do you think Australian politicians, defence force and university political scientists could react?

They would be throwing conniption fits, they would be running around hands in the air SCREAMING and spending billions upgrading the NAVY and AIR FORCE and doing absolutely everything in there power to stop or undermine it.

And FYI, NATO isn't a defensive pact.
Does Kosovo, Libya or Afghanistan ring a bell?

ttbn,

Taiwan is also far away should this be ignored? Consistency is not your strong point. The invasions of Taiwan and Ukraine would both be unprovoked and illegal invasions by tyrants into stable democracies.

The illegal invasion of Ukraine is the biggest land war since Korea and WW2 and not a "spat" and your apathy is pathetic, which begs the question as to why you even posted.

Baldrick,

You are either knowingly lying or very stupid. Ukraine's internal affairs might have peeved Putin, but by absolutely no means could be considered sufficient provocation for a legal invasion.

If Indonesia mused about joining a defence pact with China Aus would not be happy, but certainly would not be stupid enough to consider it a pretext for an invasion.

As for Russia's performance, only the most delusional Putin fanboy would believe that Russia is doing well. The reality is that Russia is not gaining any territory and holding on to what it has is costing Russia 1000s of dead soldiers every month.

Russia is losing this war.

"Women must report for duty!" Ukraine desperately calling girls to fight
http://youtu.be/durAm1yC-Dg

- Give them 5 weeks training and send them to the front...
What a disgusting waste of life.

They've thrown away the lives of all their most capable men.
Called in students from university, there goes their brightest.
And now they go for the breeders.
So they won't even be able to give birth to the next generation.

The United States has destroyed an entire nation of people, because it can't lose out on it's investment.
Not sure the Taiwanese will choose this path the US has set for them.

Anything the US touches turns to shite.

SM

Your geography is shite.

Taiwan is 5,614kms from Australia, and in our region
Ukraine is 12,975kms from Australia and not in our region.

Australia would actually have to assist in the defence of Taiwan - if there is anything to fight with after Albanese's glad-handing of our equipment to Ukraine.

Why would we have to help defend Taiwan? Because Taiwan is a democratic island with a similar sized population to Australia.

If an island democracy of 23 million is not significant enough for the United States, Australia and other partners to help protect, then Australia could have no confidence that allies and partners would help defend Australia.

Ukraine neans sweet FA to Australia. Taiwan means a hell of a lot to Australia.

"Australia would actually have to assist in the defence of Taiwan - if there is anything to fight with after Albanese's glad-handing of our equipment to Ukraine."

If Australia sends men to assist in the defence of Taiwan
(Assuming Taiwan doesn't vote for the pro-unification KMT and throw out the DPP first)
Then all those Australian military men and women will certainly die.

The Fleeting Mirage of Imagined Supremacy
http://imetatronink.substack.com/p/the-fleeting-mirage-of-imagined-supremacy

Staggering Towards the Abyss
http://imetatronink.substack.com/p/staggering-towards-the-abyss

The Object of War
http://imetatronink.substack.com/p/the-object-of-war

Dear Ttbn,

«Australia would actually have to assist in the defence of Taiwan»

And it does:

By helping Ukraine with the little we can, we contribute to the effort of deterring China so that Taiwan will not be attacked in the first place.

Better stop China early, 12,975 km away, with much lower costs and casualties, where victory may be achieved with conventional weapons only, than wait for a much bloodier phase of the war closer to home, and where Australia itself is likely to suffer a nuke or two.

«if there is anything to fight with after Albanese's glad-handing of our equipment to Ukraine.»

There is no way in the foreseeable future in which Australia can defend itself against China, so the absence of this equipment makes no difference. Sadly, we can only survive with the help of friendly nuclear powers, even then with great destruction and many casualties.

Better stop China from attacking Taiwan, now in Ukraine!

ttbn,

Your timing is shite, there is an actual massive war in Ukraine, and a war between China and Taiwan is presently a distant possibility. Also what is happening in Europe has a significant effect on Aus.

The West is presently arming Taiwan to the teeth against any planned amphibious landing and China couldn't survive a blockade of its economy. So don't expect anything soon.

Baldrick,

I see that you have found a new nutjob whose only merit is that he says what you want to hear. The Russian Air Force wouldn't last a day against the US air force. They aren't even capable of getting air superiority over Ukraine.

Russia is losing this war.

ttbn,

Your timing is shite, there is an actual massive war in Ukraine, and a war between China and Taiwan is presently a distant possibility. Also what is happening in Europe has a significant effect on Aus.

The West is presently arming Taiwan to the teeth against any planned amphibious landing and China couldn't survive a blockade of its economy. So don't expect anything soon.

Baldrick,

I see that you have found a new nutjob whose only merit is that he says what you want to hear. The Russian Air Force wouldn't last a day against the US air force. They aren't even capable of getting air superiority over Ukraine.

Dear ShadowMinister,

«and a war between China and Taiwan is presently a distant possibility.»

Indeed it is now less of a possibility, but only because China is watching how the rest of the world, including even Australia, is helping Ukraine.

'We're going to lose fast': U.S. Air Force held a war game that started with a Chinese biological attack
http://news.yahoo.com/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-force-held-a-war-game-that-started-with-a-chinese-biological-attack-170003936.html

What many Americans don’t realize is that years of classified Pentagon war games strongly suggest that the U.S. military would lose that war.

“More than a decade ago, our war games indicated that the Chinese were doing a good job of investing in military capabilities that would make our preferred model of expeditionary warfare, where we push forces forward and operate out of relatively safe bases and sanctuaries, increasingly difficult,” Air Force Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration and requirements, told Yahoo News in an exclusive interview. By 2018, the People’s Liberation Army had fielded many of those forces in large numbers, to include massive arsenals of precision-guided surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, a space-based constellation of navigation and targeting satellites and the largest navy in the world.

“At that point the trend in our war games was not just that we were losing, but we were losing faster,” Hinote said.

Have a look over at Binoy's piece on the main page.

Look at you SM,
- Thinking every single Australian heart and mind needs to be won over.

WAR WAR WAR!

Get your rifle and put your jumpsuit on and you can go and have your war.
Well let Xi know your coming.

You can't seriously think that everyone is Australia is going to be enthusiastic about going to war with China.
US war games project 3600 troop losses per day.
You know they plan to use our country as a staging point to attack China, along with Australians in the fight, there's a fair chance we'll be targeted and China aims to deny US build-up which would take significant time anyway.

And from what I see the US has no plan for if China simply blockades Taiwan for a significant length of time an attrits the huge US logistical supplyline.

Ah I see you really liked those articles, glad you read them.
"The Russian Air Force wouldn't last a day against the US air force."
- Go ahead and send them then and see what happens.

The vast majority of US troops came in after the war in Iraq and have NO COMBAT EXPERIENCE, where Russia has become far stronger since the war started, it's already on a war production footing and you can bet it's been sharing all it's knowledge with China and Iran, and any war against China, might see you having to take on all 3, with even North Korea thrown into the mix.

Time is a weapon, The war in Ukraine against Russia has depleted western military stockpiles at a significant rate.
And as for your air superiority over Ukraine US air defence doesn't even match Russia S-300

Patriot Missile systems suck. Russia found its Kryptonite: Old Soviet Idiot bombs.
http://youtu.be/sQEzdJqAcvk

I told you a long time ago, the US military is a toothless tiger.
American military is like America itself, old and crumbling apart.
And more interested in woke ideology than anything else.
Send your army of Klingers and see what happens.

I'm the voice of realism.
Things may not turn out as planned.

NATO Chief Admits NATO Expansion Was Key to Russian Invasion of Ukraine
http://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/nato-chief-admits-expansion-behind-russian-invasion

'The continuing U.S. obsession with NATO enlargement is profoundly irresponsible and hypocritical. And now Ukrainians are paying a terrible price.'

"The Ukraine War will end when the U.S. acknowledges a simple truth: NATO enlargement to Ukraine means perpetual war and Ukraine’s destruction. Ukraine’s neutrality could have avoided the war, and remains the key to peace. The deeper truth is that European security depends on collective security as called for by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), not one-sided NATO demands."

- And while you're at it charter boat, you should probably read this one as well and get it through your thick skull.

The War in Ukraine Was Provoked—and Why That Matters to Achieve Peace
http://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/wgtgma5kj69pbpndjr4wf6aayhrszm

'By recognizing that the question of NATO enlargement is at the center of this war, we understand why U.S. weaponry will not end this war. Only diplomatic efforts can do that.'

Dear Armchair Critic,

Question. If Ukraine had been part of NATO in 2014 do you think Russia would have still invaded and occupied Crimea?

What should a country do when a highly aggressive neighbour is intent on meddling in its internal affairs and elections?

The Ukrainians obviously feel this is worth the fight and as Australians supporting the underdog use to be one of our values.

Hi SteeleRedux,
"If Ukraine had been part of NATO in 2014 do you think Russia would have still invaded and occupied Crimea?"

Well, it's not really a simple or realistic question to ask.
The fact is they were not a part of NATO.

Certainly the Russian military was weaker then, but I think Putin knew the Wests game going back as far as the Budapest NATO summit in 2008 when NATO announced plans to expand to Georgia and Ukraine.

I think he would've still acted to defend the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol for the Black Sea fleet which dates back to 1783
- And he would've acted the moment Ukraine moved in the NATO direction, which he did.

But I don't think he ever really wanted to go to war, and there are plenty of facts to show that's the case, but the West refused to consider Russias security interests (which is because this war was always about provoking Putin into action, and creating a war using Ukraine as the Wests proxy) and the west thought it could sanction Russia into a political crisis and Putin's ousting.

"What should a country do when a highly aggressive neighbour is intent on meddling in its internal affairs and elections?"

Well if diplomacy doesn't work, then the only option is war.
I know it's not a great answer but I have to point out that if you're saying Russia meddled in Ukraines internal affairs and elections the West is just as guilty as Russia is.
If Russia did it on a regional scale, then the west does it on an international scale.

"The Ukrainians obviously feel this is worth the fight and as Australians supporting the underdog use to be one of our values."

Many of them have nationalistic hopes, but its hard to say how things would be different if the Banderite NAZI leaning Ukrainian government were not installed.
Did you know Zelensky actually campaigned and won on a peace platform with Russia?

Does a Ukrainian woman care more about nationalism and lines on a map when her husband - the father of her kids, her brothers, and father are all dead, I don't know?
And corrupt Ukrainian government officials are collecting these dead soldiers pays and denying their loved ones of war pensions.
The place is more corrupt than Mexico, and that's saying something.

Regards supporting the underdog, I guess that depends on which way you look at it.
I support the Russian position (by default because I oppose the Wests, you all know why) and they are the underdog in a fight with the US.
Obviously if you say it's a war between Russia and Ukraine then Ukraine is the underdog.

India seems to be following a course of neutrality, and will not abandon Russia. Look at what Jaishankar said.
http://youtu.be/kKJeaM-FeMA

America thought it would weaken Russia militarily but despite what SM suggests and to loosely quote Yamamoto they have actually awoken the sleeping bear, the Russian military industry is on a war footing and China is watching closely, and making preparations unhindered while the West is overstretched and military industry under-resourced.

Baldrick,

Where have I ever advocated for war against China? The point of arming Taiwan, especially against ships and aircraft is to make an invasion by China extremely difficult and costly in lives and ships. Having an effective deterrent is the best insurance against another illegal invasion.

If you are trying to imply that the US and Taiwan couldn't smash a Chinese blockade in a day, you must be dreaming. The 100s of anti-ship missiles Taiwan has would make short work of a blockade.

As for the US Air Force, it has more modern fighters than the rest of the world put together and would squash the RuAF like a bug.

Hey SM,
"Where have I ever advocated for war against China?"

Well if that's not a position that you support, then I apologise, but you can't really blame me for misinterpreting based on many of your arguments and positions in regards to Ukraine.

"The point of arming Taiwan, especially against ships and aircraft is to make an invasion by China extremely difficult and costly in lives and ships. Having an effective deterrent is the best insurance against another illegal invasion."

- That does seem to be the Wests position, turn Taiwan into a 'porcupine', to make it so costly to China that it thinks twice.

But it's really very much the same argument as Ukraine.
You might see it as strengthening a defensive posture, but that's not how Russia or China see the Wests moves;
- They see it as the West using the western aligned governments in these nations as building a military forward base on their doorstep.

You see these timelines for war in 2026 etc.
China's actual timeline it has set for reunification with Taiwan is 2049.

America wants to knock all it's rivals over the head before they can rise up to challenge it, and not challenge it militarily, because the US is not at risk of invasion, what they are actually defending is the US dollar system.

They can't allow anyone to overtake them.

"If you are trying to imply that the US and Taiwan couldn't smash a Chinese blockade in a day, you must be dreaming. The 100s of anti-ship missiles Taiwan has would make short work of a blockade."

Not ships, Subs.
Russia and China have well over a hundred submarines between them, and they will have more before this war kicks off.
How are Taiwan going to get supplies in or out?

You can bet that China has been looking at the Wests war games and plans as well, the US more or less advertises its position and thinking.

[Cont.]
"As for the US Air Force, it has more modern fighters than the rest of the world put together and would squash the RuAF like a bug."

Are we talking Ukraine or China?
(I'm guessing Ukraine)
If in Ukraine, they would take a hell of a lot of losses trying to take out Russian integrated air defence and also losses from manpads;
- And they would still have to commit ground forces.
They would probably need to close every military base around the planet that they have just to round up enough troops to do the job, as well as do a draft, and none of those troops have combat experience.

If in China (against China)
- Not without fuel they don't.

You don't think China will target every single facility capable of refueling from South Korea to the Darwin if necessary?
- You can bet they will.

One more thing, you said 'illegal invasion'
China invading Taiwan - it's unclear if that would even be illegal.
The US government itself even recognises that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China.
- And you all want our boys to die for this flimsy cause?

The fact of the matter is that if the US doesn't meddle, China has no reason to invade anyway
- The same damn argument that held true for Ukraine.

Zelensky campaigned on a platform of peace.
http://twitter.com/ricwe123/status/1681673779586428935

Seymour Hersh: “Zelensky’s army no longer has any chance of a victory”
http://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/09/23/seymour-hersh-zelenskys-army-no-longer-has-any-chance-of-a-victory/

Ukraine war: Western allies say they are running out of ammunition
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66984944

Misery in Ukraine as deadly conflict drives civilians from homes
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/02/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html
September 2, 2014

>>Alexander Omelyavenko, a Donetsk resident, told CNN, “We are Ukrainian but they kill us, so we probably need our own country. Because these people in Kiev, they are not brothers for us.”

The husband of a 34-year-old woman killed outside a block of flats last Wednesday wouldn’t talk to CNN, saying he was in shock. He made it down to the cellar with their small child but she simply didn’t have time. A 50-year-old woman was killed with his wife.

Donetsk, once-thriving, is now half-empty, shop fronts shattered and its railway station bombed.
Its trauma hospital is filled with the civilian wounded who were unable to reach safety in time as the shells rained down.
Medical teams treat market traders with shrapnel embedded in their legs or the broken limbs of pensioners too old or sick to run.

Valentina Popova, in the ward next door, has lost her leg and her arm to indiscriminate artillery shells.

“We used to dance, sing, do everything in Ukrainian. Poroshenko, Mr. Poroshenko – please listen to us. Why don’t you understand your people? Be a man. Be human. Please stop your aggression. Stop this war.”

“Washington and Brussels need to ask Kiev authorities to stop shelling the houses, schools, hospitals and so on because you leave militia with no choice but to stand up to protect their people,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

It cited a Luhansk morgue doctor as saying explosive weapons have killed more than 300 civilians in the city since May.
HRW researchers spoke to more than a dozen people who had witnessed artillery, mortar or rocket attacks in civilian areas.

“Many of the attacks appeared to be indiscriminate, in that they did not or could not distinguish between civilians and combatants,”
“Indiscriminate attacks violate international humanitarian law, or the laws of war.”<<

Baldrick, you are becoming incoherent and just talking drivel.

If China blockades Taiwan with Subs, the US can just as effectively blockade mainland China with Subs.

The RuAF has lost 90 fixed-wing planes since the start of their illegal war only 60 from enemy action, the rest have crashed all by themselves. As for their air defence, that's not even working well against the Ukrainians.

The Russians are running out of tanks, APVs, air defences, ammunition and men. The Ukrainians are using cluster weapons to deadly effect and the Russian "meat wave" attacks are just littering the fields with rotting Russians.

Even in the battle of attrition, the Russians are losing this war.

The sinking feeling is yours charter boat
I think it's almost about time for you to give it up
The writings on the wall even Ukrainian MPs admit not winning.
Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko "Russia is winning the battle of protracted conflict"
http://www.youtube.com/live/xUBJnE1M2Xk&t=2188

It's time to take off the blinkers and change your violin strings;
Not only is Ukraine LOSING this war, the war is LOST.

Ukraine war: Western allies say they are running out of ammunition
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66984944
>>Adm Rob Bauer, Nato's most senior military official, told the Warsaw Security Forum that "the bottom of the barrel is now visible".<<

Russian military boosted by 335K new troops, defence minister says
http://globalnews.ca/news/10000945/russian-military-size-ukraine/
“Since the start of the year, more than 335,000 people have entered military service under contract and in volunteer formations,” Shoigu said. “In September alone, more than 50,000 citizens signed contracts.”
- Russians are starting to smell victory, young men are lining up to take part in this new great patriotic war.

The Pentagon warns Congress it is running low on money to replace weapons sent to Ukraine
http://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-congress-funding-13727f76561a80d2f00267a13667c33a

Ousting of US House speaker darkens outlook for Ukraine aid as funds dry up
http://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/04/politics/ukraine-aid-impact-mccarthy-ouster-intl/index.html

Slovakia shift, elections in Poland dampen support for Ukraine
http://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/10/03/slovakia-shift-elections-in-poland-dampen-support-for-ukraine/

Slovakia promises to cut aid to Ukraine after pro-Moscow candidate wins election
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/01/slovakia-cuts-aid-ukraine-pro-russia-candidate-wins-electio/

EU Wants To Pay Off Hungary To The Tune Of €13BN So Orban Doesn't Veto Ukraine Aid
http://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-wants-pay-hungary-tune-eu13bn-so-orban-doesnt-veto-ukraine-aid

Kremlin-Friendly Hungary Government Wants to Hold Back Some Ukraine Aid
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-03/hungary-floats-splitting-ukraine-aid-after-us-cash-is-blocked#xj4y7vzkg

Russian oil price cap not working – Washington
'US Treasury chief Janet Yellen says Russia has maintained export volumes and prices remain high despite the limits'
http://www.rt.com/business/583814-russia-oil-cap-working-yellen/

U.S. Funding Cutoff Threatens Ukraine’s Economic Stability
'U.S. pays government bills and public-sector salaries alongside arms supply'
http://www.wsj.com/world/europe/u-s-funding-cutoff-threatens-ukraines-economic-stability-82716679

Germany will not give Ukraine long-range Taurus missiles in near future
http://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/4/7422679/

Why There Are No Game-Changing Weapons for Ukraine
http://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/14/ukraine-russia-taurus-germany-atacms-weapons-attrition-strategy-deep-battle/

Thousands protest in Berlin against giving weapons to Ukraine
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/25/thousands-protest-in-berlin-against-giving-weapons-to-ukraine

No weapons left for Ukraine in Europe – Politico
http://www.rt.com/russia/583947-ukraine-arms-production-politico/

Olena Zelenska spends $1,100,000 on Cartier jewelry, gets sales employee fired
http://thenationonlineng.net/olena-zelenska-spends-1100000-on-cartier-jewelry-gets-sales-employee-fired/

German minister admits Berlin sending outdated weapons to Ukraine for Russian war: Report
http://www.wionews.com/world/german-minister-admits-berlin-sending-outdated-weapons-to-ukraine-for-russian-war-report-639718
>>German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has reportedly admitted that Berlin had occasionally sent outdated or almost non-functional military equipment to Ukraine.
"It does not only help to promise, and then you cannot deliver, or deliver things which do not work ... Some of our systems were really old-fashioned," Baerbock said in an interview with US media, according to Sputnik news agency.<<

Russian media: over 33,000 Russian soldiers killed in war with Ukraine
http://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/29/7422028/
"Journalists from the Russian service of the BBC and Mediazona have discovered that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the war in Ukraine, at least 33,236 Russian soldiers have died, of which 3836 have been mobilized."

If we pull the plug on Ukraine, it will be 10 times worse than in Afghanistan.
This would be a death sentence for Taiwan.
You missed the whole of World War II if you don't know how this movie ends, says Republican Senator @LindseyGrahamSC on Face The Nation.
http://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1708890922082058611

Irrecoverable Losses of Ukrainian Formations - Rybar
- As of OCT 1st, 2023 - Total Killed - 493,678
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1709333949175177271

Sunak: There are no British soldiers that will be sent to fight in the current conflict
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1708450733291409629

First video of a FAB-1500 with a guidance kit.
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1708099634382692387

The Mayor of #Bucha from a video filmed on March 31, 2022 happily announcing the withdrawal of the Rus Army (the day before).
Strangely, no mention of massacres or bodies on the streets
http://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1511186611672805379

The 47th mechanized bridged has been rotated off the southern front due to high losses and refusal to carry out combat orders.
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1707838036002877717

The Fall | The Losses Of The Ukrainian Army Reach HALF A MILLION. Military Summary For 2023.10.04
http://youtu.be/i9VugQzxS0g

You can keep flogging that horse until it's dead SM;

But if you keep saying 'Russia is losing this war'
You're just going to look more and more like an idiot.
It's time for a reality check mate, it's ok to be wrong.

Just out of curiosity,
How many people here strongly believe the USA and allies can beat China, Russia, Iran and North Korea all it once, on their home territory?

Britain has ‘run out of arms to send to Ukraine’
'We’ve given away all we can afford and other countries should step in, says senior military chief'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/02/britain-run-out-of-arms-send-to-ukraine-says-military-chief/

Cheap drones rigged with explosives have become the leading anti-tank weapon against Russian forces, Ukrainian commander says
http://www.businessinsider.com/exploding-drones-leading-anti-tank-weapon-against-russia-ukraine-commander-2023-10

>>A deputy company commander in Ukraine's 80th Separate Assault Brigade told the Post that Russian troops use FPV drones the same way as Ukrainian soldiers but noted that it appears Moscow has more equipment.

"It's like a chess game," said the commander who goes by the call sign Swift. "They're winning it. Just in terms of quantity."<<

Dear Critic,

«How many people here strongly believe the USA and allies can beat China, Russia, Iran and North Korea all it once, on their home territory?»

Of the above, only China is a real threat, the others are just a nuisance.

This is not a question of "beating" anyone, but of not being beaten ourselves and we are not interested in their home territory anyway.

So yes, I strongly believe that with effort we can prevent them from beating us.

It could of course turn nuclear and we could end up all dead - but not beaten, and death is clearly preferable to being subjected to China's communist cultural-revolution and concentration camps.

But by winning in Ukraine there is a reasonable chance that we will not even have to die, because the Chinese are pretty clever and don't fancy being dead either, so watching Russia's defeat they can still avoid starting the war without losing face - that's why China sent Russia to war first so it can test the waters.

If however we fail to help our friends in their time of need, then nobody would help us either when our turn comes. Since Australia doesn't have nuclear capabilities, on its own it can easily be beaten.

Hi Yuyutsu,
You know in some ways this is the most sad and despicable part of the war Yuyutsu, that there is no chance of Ukraine taking back their territory, but that the war must go on with Ukrainians being used as cannon fodder, for no other good purpose except to 'deter China'.

The truth about Ukraine is that all we've actually done is make Russia that much stronger, as their military industry hasn't been resourced or on such a war footing in decades and their army now has more combat experience than any other - and pushed it closer to China, and in the process completely demilitarised the West by emptied all our weapons and ammunition stockpiles.

This article below is more for SM, and his 'meat wave attacks'
I told him ages ago time and time again the Russians will withdraw when necessary, lead the Ukrainians into a trap and rain hell down upon them with overwhelming artillery firepower, before taking the position back.

Russian Troops Cede Ground and Strike Back, Frustrating Ukraine’s Counteroffensive
http://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/03/world/europe/russia-ukraine-elastic-defense-counteroffensive.html
'Military analysts say that Russian commanders have been using a tactic known as “elastic defense” to prevent Ukraine from holding villages and other positions as staging grounds for future attacks.'

Isn't it funny how everything I say is labeled 'Russian propaganda', until eventually the western media comes out and says the same damn thing?

Drones Everywhere: How the Technological Revolution on Ukraine Battlefields Is Reshaping Modern Warfare
http://www.wsj.com/world/drones-everywhere-how-the-technological-revolution-on-ukraine-battlefields-is-reshaping-modern-warfare-bf5d531b

“Unfortunately, most of our offensive is now on foot,” said Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the commander of HUR.

Dear Critic,

I am anything but a military expert, thus I will leave such questions as to who is winning, who is getting stronger and who is getting weaker for you and ShadowMinister to discuss, if you wish.

All I know is that one can recognise evil when they see it, and the atrocities carried out by Russia on Ukrainian civilians, including murder, torture, destruction, looting, rape and kidnapping of children, are certainly evil and must be opposed.

Same for the Chinese atrocities in Tibet and the Uighurs and in general the terrible oppression against their own population, which the same they now apply in Hong Kong and wish to do to the people of Taiwan, if they could, then subsequently to the people of Japan, the Philippines and Australia (which for them is just a great mining pit).

This we must oppose, even if it costs our lives: the specific strategies and tactics I leave for you and ShadowMinister to discuss.

Like you, I am also unhappy for having to have this crazy U.S.A. as our biggest ally in this war, but beggars cannot be choosers.

Baldrick has repeatedly regurgitated propaganda from various disreputable sources, some half-truths but mostly outright lies.

For example "Olena Zelenska spends $1,100,000 on Cartier jewelry, gets sales employee fired" primarily because on the date that this supposedly happened, Olena was in Canada. But once again this idiot does not have the IQ to filter this out or simply does not care to.

I'm really surprised you didn't regurgitate the Ukrainian position re the alleged Russian attack on the local shop and cafe in Hroza.
You're dropping the ball mate, I expected more from you.

Ukraine's counteroffensive gained 13 villages and 380 sq klms of territory out of 44,467 sq klms - less than 1%

Ukraine counteroffensive: ‘I’m ready to die . . . 90% of the guys here will die too’
Elite Ukrainian troops tell Anthony Loyd the terrible price they are paying to break through Russian lines during the summer counteroffensive
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-counteroffensive-i-m-ready-to-die-90-of-the-guys-here-will-die-too-76jvs3kwj
(From September 05 2023)

Baldrick,

Do you mean the 52 civilians incl pensioners, women and children killed by a Russian missile? the 10000th odd Russian war crime?

Photographs and witnesses support it, Russia claims it was a Nazi funeral at the cafe, suuuurrre!

The Russians must've learned that play from the Americans right?
Blow up a funeral to get 3 enemy militants?
Well the US wouldn't be satisfied without at least 100 civilians deaths as 'collateral damage' would they?

How can it be a war crime?
America does this all the time.

Truthfully, I don't know which side did it
But what I do know is that whatever Ukrainians rush to claim is irrelevant because they have form in milking shock value from these things for all it's worth, like they did in Konstantinovka a month back when foreign dignitaries are in town (as now) and it was proven to be one of their own.

Apart from that since the leadership is aligned with Stepan Bandera who once said he'd be happy to kill a million innocent people for Ukraine;s independence, a false flag on their own people wouldn't be a problem.

Oh look, they already gotten at least one new replacement out of the three lost to send to the front. Good O
http://twitter.com/KhersonFrom/status/1710467617855545652

The West really needs to send more military aid.
(it's slowly sending them over a fiscal cliff)

Juncker: Ukraine is totally corrupt

'Former European Commission chief bashes Kyiv’s EU candidacy.'
http://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-ukraine-corruption-eu-accession/

Former European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has slammed the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU, lambasting the country as massively “corrupt.”

“Anyone who has had anything to do with Ukraine knows that this is a country that is corrupt at all levels of society. Despite its efforts, it is not ready for accession; it needs massive internal reform processes,” Juncker said during an interview with German outlet Augsburger Allgemeine published Thursday.

“Making false promises” to Ukrainians regarding EU accession “would be neither good for the EU nor for Ukraine,” added Juncker, who was boss at the Berlaymont in Brussels from 2014 to 2019.

“You shouldn’t make false promises to the people in Ukraine who are up to their necks in suffering,” Juncker said. “I am very angry about some voices in Europe who are telling Ukrainians that they can become members immediately.” Kyiv has been fending off Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion which began in February 2022.

Baldrick,

Now you are telling outright lies. There was no military presence in the area, and the missile clearly came from the Russians, the only ones deliberately targeting civilians. Only a lowlife grub would argue otherwise.

And America does not do this all the time you are just lying. Provide proof.

Yeah well you're talking through your anus.
What's all this you halfwit, why not try google before you open your mouth n let the shite fall out?

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/new-study-asserts-drone-strikes-in-pakistan-target-rescuers-funerals/
"CIA drone strikes in Pakistan have killed “dozens of civilians” who had gone to help rescue victims of drone strikes or were attending funerals for the victims of previous strikes, according to a new report by British and Pakistani journalists.

...between 282 and 535 civilians have been credibly reported as killed including more than 60 children. A three month investigation including eye witness reports has found evidence that at least 50 civilians were killed in follow-up strikes when they had gone to help victims. More than 20 civilians have also been attacked in deliberate strikes on funerals and mourners."

So Russia (if they did do it) they were actually quite restrained, the US would've double-tapped the rescuers as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanaa_funeral_airstrike
"The Sanaa funeral airstrike took place on the afternoon of 8 October 2016 when 155 people were killed and at least 525 more wounded when two airstrikes, about three to eight minutes apart, hit the packed Al Kubra hall in Sanaa, Yemen during a funeral. The attack was the deadliest single bombing in the then-two year long Yemeni civil war. The funeral was being held for the father of former interior minister Jalal al-Rowaishan. Sanaa mayor Abdel Qader Hilal was reportedly among those killed. The Saudi-led COALITION (That means US were actively involved in the war) initially denied responsibility but then took responsibility and put the blame on information given by the Yemeni government."

Looks like the US prefer weddings however:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wech_Baghtu_wedding_party_airstrike
"The Wech Baghtu wedding party airstrike refers to the killing of about 37 Afghan civilians, mostly women and children, and injuring about 27 others by a United States military airstrike on November the 3rd 2008."

[Cont.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haska_Meyna_wedding_party_airstrike
"The Haska Meyna wedding party airstrike was an attack by United States military forces on 6 July 2008, in which 47 Afghans were killed. The group was escorting a bride to a wedding ceremony in the groom's village in Haska Meyna District of Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan.

The United States government denied that civilians were killed in the incident. An investigation by the Afghan government disagreed and determined that 47 civilians, including the bride, had been killed.

The first bomb hit a group of children who were ahead of the main procession, killing them instantly. A few minutes later, the aircraft returned and dropped a second bomb in the center of the group, killing many women. The bride and two girls survived the second bomb, but were killed by a third bomb while trying to escape from the area. Hajj Khan, one of four elderly men who were escorting the party, stated that his grandson was killed and that there were body parts everywhere."

http://www.hrw.org/report/2014/02/19/wedding-became-funeral/us-drone-attack-marriage-procession-yemen
"On December 12, 2013, a United States aerial drone launched four Hellfire missiles on a convoy of 11 cars and pickup trucks during a counterterrorism operation in rural Yemen. The strike killed at least 12 men and wounded at least 15 others, 6 of them seriously.

Yemen authorities initially described all those killed in the attack outside the city of Rad`a as “terrorists.” The US government never officially acknowledged any role in the attack, but unofficially told media that the dead were militants, and that the operation targeted a “most-wanted” member of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) who was wounded and escaped.

Witnesses and relatives of the dead and wounded interviewed by Human Rights Watch in Yemen said the convoy was a wedding procession. They said everyone in the procession was a civilian, including all of the dead and injured, and that the bride received a superficial face wound."

I'm not actually certain that anything you say at all has any credibility whatsoever sorry.
And when proven wrong you just stick your head back into the sand like Ozzy the Ostrich.

"There was no military presence in the area, and the missile clearly came from the Russians."

Clearly? what did you see the Russians launch it?
- That's the only way you could claim 'clearly' you idiot.

- Usually when there is a military funeral, there would be military people there. This was a reburial to the soldiers home village, and what better than to attack them and blame the Russians, you have to keep the anger up within the troops and citizenry to continue the war, and get the visiting foreign dignitaries to hand over more weapons.

Your own arguments make it more likely Russia didn't do it.
If there were no military there as you say, why would Russia waste a missile on it?
Better to target troop concentrations, supply lines, ammo depots, or decision making centres.
Aren't they running out of missiles?

Your argument for this is about as dumb as your claim that Putin started the war.
- You really are about as dumb as a box of rocks aren't you mate?

Putin says Russia did not start the war in Ukraine
http://youtu.be/dSoszzy0IpE

Baldrick,

Who said it was a military funeral? The dead were mostly women in a village that had no military presence. This was a war crime for which Russia will be paying reparations for decades.

idiot.

Baldrick,

You mean the massacre of 51 civilians and children by Russians. Yup, another Russian war crime amongst 1000 others.

I see that the Russian navy and Air Force have bravely run away from Crimea after being smashed by Ukrainian missiles.

Baldrick, so you have to go back 15 years to find a single instance of the US accidentally hitting a civilian event, yet in Ukraine, there are hundreds of instances of Russia deliberately hitting civilian targets.

That is why Putin is a war criminal.

"Baldrick, so you have to go back 15 years to find a single instance of the US accidentally hitting a civilian event, yet in Ukraine, there are hundreds of instances of Russia deliberately hitting civilian targets."

No mate, that's just the poor quality of western air defense systems.
They end up hitting civilian areas, but Ukraine's got form for false flags anyway.
Haven't heard anything about the Patriots in a while, I'm guessing Russia blew them up months back.

- Move on, nothing to see here -

Maybe you need a few days off Charter Boat, all this 'hope and cope' seems to be getting too much for ya...

Baldrick,

Only morons believe that Ukraine started the war and pissant Putin fanboys pretend to. Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine is a giveaway.

How do I know the Russians fired the missile? Precisely because the Russians admitted it. The Russians claimed that it was a Nazi funeral with Nazis attending. Most of the victims were women, children, or pensioners with most of the bodies found in the children's playground next to the cafe making this yet another Russian atrocity and war crime.

As for the Patriot batteries (of which Russia has yet to destroy one) they are still effectively shooting down every Russian missile in range, and if you haven't heard about them in months, it is because you clearly only frequent pro-Russian news sites.

As for the Russian air defences, Russia is running out of S400 systems which have all been taken out by missiles that they didn't stop.

Russia is losing this war.

"Only morons believe that Ukraine started the war and pissant Putin fanboys pretend to. Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine is a giveaway."

And this is exactly the reason why wars are inevitable SM.

Because people like yourself (and with no thanks to the media);
- Refuse to be honest about the real causes of the conflict.
And you've proven that to be the case in regards to your stance on the Israel / Palestinian conflict.

As long as people refuse to demand the real truth in regards to the events that lead up to these conflicts, then war is inevitable.
- Better get used to it, you know the direction the world is headed.

And you know what else, 'selective outrage' is bs too.

100 people were killed by drone attack in Syria just a few weeks back (women and kids too) with over 250 injured, and no-one gave a shite about it.

Attack Israel and kill innocents there and everyone's outraged beyond belief.
- It's selective outrage, no more no less.

Some lives are obviously worth more than others.

I was disturbed by some of the shite I saw in Israel and you know what?
I didn't see a dead 'Israeli' or 'Palestinian' - NO.
I just saw dead human beings.

To finish though, if Russia admitted they launched the attack on that funeral then it was just as I said it was, there were military there.

But I'll tell you what, I saw pictures of dead middle aged women and elderly men from that attack, and it's no more or less sad and disturbing as the people who died in Israel over the last few days or the Syrians who were killed in Homs weeks earlier, (by US proxies the SDF no doubt)

I have a mate that supports the Ukrainian side.
We both have our points of view but we don't argue.
At least he can make a reasonable argument to base his point of view on.
He says that 'if Ukraine wants to join NATO, then that shouldn't be any business of Russia'.

- Simple and reasonable -

My response:
I said if this was just a war between Russia and Ukraine then his argument has validity and I'd be more inclined to support the Ukrainian position.
But I also said that if this is a war between the United States against Russia using Ukraine as it's proxy, then I'm more inclined to support the Russian position.

And even he seemed to accept my argument as also being simple and reasonable.

Just got the info on that attack in Hroza (Russian: Groza)
It was the wake for an officer of the NAZI Battallian AIDAR and about 100 serviceman were present for the funeral.
In 2014, Amnesty International reported that members of the Aidar Battalion had committed war crimes including abductions, unlawful detention, ill-treatment, theft, extortion, possible executions and blocking humanitarian aid (starving people) during the war in Donbas.
In April 2015, the Ukrainian government-appointed Governor of Luhansk Hennadiy Moskal stated that Aidar battalion was 'terrorizing the region' and asked Ukrainian Defense Ministry to rein in its members after a series of thefts, including ambulances and the takeover of a bread factory. There are currently eighteen members of the Aidar battalion on trial before the Russian military court of Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia.

Baldrick,

I see that you are back with the latest in Russian propaganda with more bullsh1t about Nazis just after denying that Russia fired the missile and claiming that Ukraine caused the atrocity.

You need to get your lies straight.

I see that Russia mounted a mass attack on Andriivka and fell victim to Ukraine's cluster munitions losing one jet 20+ tanks and APVs and several hundred soldiers capturing the equivalent of a couple of rugby pitches of fields once again polluting the landscape with rotting Russians.

Russia is losing this war.

I told you it would be one or the other.

And well that's what happened numerous times previously,
Ukraine blames Russia then it comes out Ukrainians did it themselves.
http://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/europe/ukraine-missile-kostiantynivka-market.html

Ukrainians have form for that kind of thing...

Andriivka...
Well, since Russia launched their attack on Andriivka using heavy minitions - FAB250 FAB500 FAB1500, as well as TOS 1A heavy flamethrowers, MLRS, missiles, tanks, mortars - around 200 artillery systems in total and Mil-28 and Ka-52's to provide cover to troop movements, probably some drones as well I imagine the Ukrainians in Andriivka aren't having much of a great day...

I hear the Russians took 10 times fewer losses than what the Ukrainians took in the abandoned village of Robotyne in the opening days of their counteroffensive, and Andriivka is a fairly large and well defended city.

Of course it was going to be costly...
We'll see what comes of it in the coming days.

Baldrick,

With Russia, it is always one or the other. After committing an atrocity, it is either the lie that Ukraine bombed its own people or it was a bunch of Nazis.

First, you claimed that it was not Russia, but after Russia admitted it was guilty suddenly the victims were all Nazi soldiers. The funny thing about these Nazis is that nearly all of them looked like pensioners, women or children, apparently many of these Nazis were playing in the children's playground next to the cafe.

So which lie is it?

As for what you hear, it isn't worth a pinch of sh1t.

Russia is losing this war.

Mate, I saw the dead middle aged woman and and elderly bloke laid out there.
War sucks, innocent people die.
You're the one that wants to keep the this thing going till Ukraine gets it's land back, that is all this for lines on a map, when there's no chance of them achieving such an outcome.

"So which lie is it?"

Around 100 members of the Aidar battalion present for the hometown reburial and wake of one of their officers, I told you already.
And I believe it you know why?
- Because the town is so small they probably don't normally have as many as 50 people in it.

Try to use that thing inside your skull for the purposes of logic, and stop trying to score points like it's a game of bloody tennis.

And seriously, when your cheering on the retaliatory strikes in Gaza right now and the stuff we can all see on the TV, well I think you've got some nerve touching on the topic of 'collateral damage'.

You want to see some dead kids and babies from Gaza?
It's not a big deal to slap the links to the pictures up, because I intend to get all the links and compile what I've seen to share it at some point.

I gotta go vote, I want to avoid the crapfest tomorrow.
I'll tell them I'm going away for the weekend, and maybe I actually will.

http://twitter.com/Just_A_Tweeter_/status/1710726831370842192

Zelensky is behaving absolutely correctly, said Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko

According to him, the West promised him full assistance in the confrontation with Russia, but they did not keep their word. Therefore, Zelensky begs and demands that they fulfill their promises. At the same time, he understands that he was cheated.

http://twitter.com/AXChristoforou/status/1712345420683166160

Kirby:
From 'As long as it takes' to 'End of the rope' and 'It's not going to be indefinite.'

Your war is lost, there's no chance of victory.
I told you SM the US wanted an open checkbook to maintain an indefinite stalemate;
- or at the very least until the end of this current US election cycle.

The entire war that you've been beating the drums of, and the 500,000 dead Ukrainians along with it has amounted to ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
- A completely pointless waste of human life, that you supported.

Should've negotiated the peace back on April 1st 2022, and all those men would still be alive.

The Russians said so back in 2008.

NYET MEANS NYET.

IMF raises Russian GDP growth forecast by almost 50%
http://www.rt.com/business/584583-imf-russia-economy-forecast-revised-higher/

Russia’s economic growth to beat EU and US – NYT
Western sanctions have helped the country restructure its economy, the outlet notes
http://www.rt.com/business/584650-russia-economy-resilient-western-sanctions-nyt/

"According to the article, the West's 'punishing' restrictions have in reality only helped Russia restructure its economy as the country 'pumped money' into various industries at a rapid pace 'putting almost every available worker into a job and raising the size of weekly paychecks.'

'Total output, which the Russian Central Bank estimates may rise as much as 2.5% this year, could outpace the European Union and possibly even the United States,' the NYT noted."

Still think Russia is losing this war SM?

http://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1712588514712293734
The last 24h not a single AFU shell fell on Donetsk City for the first time since 2 years!
- So it looks like the Avdeevka operation sucked up the whole artillery attention.

US must be ready for simultaneous wars with China, Russia: Commission
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/13/us-must-be-ready-for-simultaneous-wars-with-china-russia-commission
'Congressional review of US’s strategic posture says security environment has worsened and US needs to respond.'

Hi AC,

What is your view of the recent spike in Russian losses? Avdiivka has taken a terrible toll on Russian forces for no gains. I still believe that the Ukrainian forces are pursuing a strategy of picking off the Russian forces along with a couple of areas of the front over which they are making limited advances. I suspect that The Russian forces are receiving a large amount of military support from China, especially drones, but I cannot see this as being enough, especially if the Ukrainians are supplied with some longer range weapons.

Hi Fester,
Well, from what I can see they are attacking Avdeevka from about 7 directions.
They are doing a pincer attack to try to capture the small towns around the city, in the south Sieverne and Tonenke and in the north Stepove and Berdychi and to gain fire control over the what will be the only road in and out in Oriivka. They have taken some high ground at the coke chemical plant. The hardest part of an attack like this, I'm told is the operation to gain a foothold in the city, even if it's only just a few blocks to start with.

I saw a tweet before where there was a huge white phosphorous attack on the city a well as TOS 1A heavy flamethrower on some surrounding towns.
http://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1712640205168001520
I hear they are attacking with at least 2 brigades and thousands of tanks, and they are making advances, but I haven't really kept up with all the events as it has unfolded over the last day or so.

I know Russia has taken some troop losses with cluster munitions and lost a number of armoured vehicles maybe with drones, that said taking a well defended city isn't easy and it was expected to be bloody.

As I said a day or so back, they're attacking Andriivka using heavy minitions - FAB250 FAB500 FAB1500, as well as TOS 1A heavy flamethrowers, MLRS, missiles, tanks (lots of them), mortars - around 200 artillery systems in total and Mil-28 and Ka-52's to provide cover to troop movements.

[Cont]
New reports say they're attacking with thousands of tanks, and don't forget most of the Ukrainians with significant combat experience are already dead. Many of the Ukrainian defenders are conscripts with limited training, where as many of the Russians had many months of training, but the defenses in Avdiivka have been built up over 8 years.

Here's a couple of videos that I sometimes watch.
Most of Twitter is focussed on Israel atm

The Russians Started The LARGEST Offensive Operation. Military Summary 2023.10.12
http://youtu.be/yu4I3yONJ5I

The Russians Are Fighting For Strategic Heights Near Avdiivka. Military Summary For 2023.10.13
http://youtu.be/RH2gfsFIXxo

Whether the offensive will be successful or not we'll just have to see but these things take time in order to destroy defensive strongholds.

Yes, it is certainly a very large amount of hardware that the Russians are deploying. I even heard they had 300 artillery units deployed around Avdiivka. I believe that a major hurdle for the Russians has been the mine fields, as it has been for the Ukrainians trying to conduct mechanised assaults.

I am wondering what the strategy of the armies will be in the coming months? I suspect that the Ukrainians might try to coordinate limited assaults with intense targeting of supplies and reinforcements. It seems to be their method. As for Russia, other than targeting the electrical grid, conducting mass assaults seems a bit extravagant, even with their large reserves.

Well, going from what the tweet in my first response to claimed, the white phosphorous was used in order to set off land mines and to clear a path forward for troops, tanks, and armoured vehicles.

And if you say there were up to 300 artillery systems, then you info might be correct, I don't follow telegram channels where one might get a lot more info; I could never figure out how to update telegram so that it automatically translates other languages.

One of the main reasons why these things take time is because different types of weapons with different range of fire are set back at different distances from the front line, so when you move forward you come under attack from different weapon systems. If you wish to minimise losses you have to go about taking out these different weapon systems methodically.

You can get a little bit of info from these older videos below.

Skip to 2:45
http://youtu.be/F89iypG7k8s

Skip to 22 minutes
http://youtu.be/kDKORwR2yW4

"I am wondering what the strategy of the armies will be in the coming months?"

I'm not sure how each side plans to deal with the winter freeze, I've heard people speculate both going on the offensive and also simply maintaining defense positions. I think each side has around 900,000 troops currently, so those numbers are fairly even. Also part of war strategy is not advertising your plans and keep your enemy guessing, and sleep deprived.

I'm not sure Ukraine has enough weapons to go on the offensive right now, so I expect they will take up defensive positions, while there's a chance Russia might go on an offensive during the winter.

In the short term I think Russia will likely continue a relentless attack on Avdiivka, it's important because the Ukrainians have been shelling Donetsk City from there.

Thank AC,

You are well informed as always. The only problems I see with phosphorus is that it may no be so good against the buried mines, and both sides can deploy mines with artillery. Then there are the drone based weapons that can be brought into effect: I believe that Ukraine are getting some S600s, supposedly a loitering Javelin with a 40km range.

But everything is so uncertain, which is why I see a lot of sense in the Ukrainian strategy of using a wide range of weaponry to support limited advances. I can't see Russia sustaining its forces with its current offensive strategy, but I agree that both sides are suffering a lack of equipment, probably under half the gear that would be the standard.

Well like all of us (on any topic) I'm only as well informed as I can be from the sources of information I consume. My info is always from the Russian side of things, and we both know there's a difference between what the Ukrainians say and what the Russians say. I can't even claim to have a balanced understanding of things because I don't often look at information from the Ukrainians side.

http://twitter.com/TheHumanFund5/status/1712927579806597228

Baldrick,

It looks like the attack on Andrivka was anticipated, and most of the massive Russian force of armour and men has been destroyed with virtually no gains.

It looks like your sources of information are continually wrong. You claimed a year ago that the Ukrainian army had been destroyed, yet here we are with the Ukrainians still killing Russians in the 1000s.

Russia is losing this war.

"It looks like the attack on Andrivka was anticipated"

I don't know, it's hard to say unless you have direct knowledge of info from troops on the ground. On the one hand it would be difficult with the amount of drone surveillance to hide a build up of heavy equipment and armoured columns on the move, where as on the other hand the fact that Russian helicopters were freely flying over Andriivka firing on enemy positions uncontested during the opening hours of the battle tells a different story.

I looked for the tweet I saw showing the helicopter footage but I couldn't find it.

"It looks like your sources of information are continually wrong."
"Russia is losing this war."

The fact that you are still playing this violin, shows the quality of your own sources.

It does look like the Ukrainians have successfully limited the Russian advance in the north of Andriiva, for now.
In some areas the Russians have had to step back, with a decent amount of armoured vehicle and troops losses.
Not enough have any huge impact as yet, but enough to force the Russians to regroup in the northern sector, and if you were on the Ukrainian side you'd be pleased with the defensive operations at this time despite quite a few losses on their side as well.

Ukrainian saboteurs took out a strategic bridge disrupting Russian supply lines prior to the offensive and were pretty successful with their drone attacks.
And the longer it goes on without Russians gaining a foothold the more Ukrainians will reinforce and make it tougher for the Russians to advance.

I'd now agree that the fact they took out that bridge supports shadowministers argument that the offensive was indeed anticipated.
Intense fighting is continuing, well see what happens in the coming days.

Baldrick,

Your tendency to post bullsh1t without checking facts makes you look like a moron. There were not 100 military personnel at the cafe.

The rural town had just over 300 inhabitants and no military facilities or significance. Russia killed 1/6 of its inhabitants almost exclusively women and children. This was yet another Russian war crime.

On the positive side, Russia has had another 2 ships disabled by drones or even their own mines and has lost up to 2000 soldiers and 100 tanks and APVs in a few days attacking Avdivka. Rotting Russians everywhere.

Putin is panicking as the Ruble collapses and his troops are massacred for no gain.

Ukraine is now getting the 300km range HIMARS rockets M1 tanks and soon F16s

Russia is losing the illegal war it started.

The latest thing that the Russians are running out of is body bags, the casualties from the attack on Avdrivka are so high that all hospitals are overflowing and the stock of body bags in Donetsk is insufficient.

The loss of Russian tanks and APVs is so high that they are resorting to meat waves running through barrages of cluster shells.

The west is preparing for the collapse of Russia.

Armchair Critic- you put me onto Victoria Nuland et al back during the Euromaiden event. Victoria Nuland seems to be a Hebrew Communist working for Hilary Clinton who was apparently mentored by apparent Hebrew Communist Saul Alinsky- it makes sense perhaps that Ukrainian PM Zelensky is also Hebrew. In a sense Putin could be considered to be a Russian Democratic Reformer- but the smoke is too dense to work out what is happening- if there was someone likely to be able to reform Russia from Communism it would likely be someone from the intelligence community. It's likely that China realizes that Russia may not be the most reliable ally.

Come off the grass, SM
Why don't u go and cheer on some dead Palestinian women and kids or something...

"The latest thing that the Russians are running out of is body bags, the casualties from the attack on Avdrivka are so high that all hospitals are overflowing and the stock of body bags in Donetsk is insufficient."

The Ukrainians are running out of bodies to put in body bags...
I told you it was going to be bloody, and having small setbacks on an opening few days of a battle won't affect the long-term outcome of the war.
Russia has a population of 145 million people, if they were to fully mobilise you'd be looking at 30 to 40 million Russian men of fighting age, and the Ukrainians Nazi's have been given the flick so the West can go help the Jews...

How do you think that's going to go down...
The Ukrainians won't be blaming the Russians when this starts to really go pear-shaped for them, they'll blame the West.

Hey CM,
Go check out what I've written on the 'Netanyahu declares war' thread..
"It's likely that China realizes that Russia may not be the most reliable ally."
No, Russia and China are rock solid, their current relationship goes beyond a simple alliance.
They know who their real enemy is.

This is what I watched last night.
Long video but some great info.

NEOCONNED - PHONEY NARRATIVES AND IRRATIONAL PLANS IN UKRAINE AND ISRAEL
http://www.youtube.com/live/IVXze8g9xDc

Baldrick,

Get off the crack and go and cheer on the dead Israeli babies or 1000s of dead Russian Soldiers.

As for Russians of fighting age (18-40), there are only 21m pre-war (11m if the age is 18-30) of which about 1m have been contracted or drafted and another 1m have left the country.

Russia's "small setbacks" as you claimed cost them more than 100 tanks 180 BMPs, a Su 25 and about 2500 soldiers for the gain of a couple of sq km. The fighting force of the Russian army in that area has been broken.

Russia is losing this war.

"Armchair Critic- you put me onto Victoria Nuland et al back during the Euromaiden event."

- Yeah I remember, that was way back years before Russia intervened in 2022
She's probably got more blood on her hands than anyone.
Here she is here handing out biscuits and sarnies back at the Euromaidan.

'World Is Watching,' U.S. Diplomat Tells Ukraine
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2013/12/11/250215712/world-is-watching-u-s-diplomat-tells-ukraine

She boasted about spending 5 Billion on the coup;
Most likely organised the Maidan shooting with members of Right Sector
(because that's what they do fund opposition groups for civil unrest against the existing government)
Then waved her finger at Yanukovych and said this kind of heavy handed tactics against peaceful protestors is not on.
(That she caused)
Overthrew the country and set it on a path to war to which half a million Ukrainian men are now dead.

And it's going to be all for nothing, because Ukraine is not capable of taking back territory.
Even now their offensive has ended with no significant achievement, and all along the front line, Ukrainians have lost the initiative and are fighting in defense.

She's had some promotions since way back when
Currently the Deputy Secretary of State, second in command in the State Department under Anthony Blinken.
Or third most powerful, under Biden

Baldrick,

There is nothing in the link you provided that says anything about providing $5bn to a coup.

You are just lying again.

"There is nothing in the link you provided that says anything about providing $5bn to a coup.
You are just lying again."

I don't lie mate, now you're dragging me down to your level of mentality.

Victoria Nuland US has invested $5 billion in Ukraine - April 2014
http://youtu.be/rPVs5VuI8X
'Victoria Nuland gives a speech at the National Press Club, Washington DC confirming that the USA had spent $5 billion promoting 'democracy' in the Ukraine. The speech was sponsored by Chevron Oil, the US oil giant'

- Geez you can be a pain in the backside Charter Boat.
Always challenging everything.

Next your going to try to argue that the 5bln was spent on 'democracy sausages'

Why challenge everything I say?
- You know I don't say anything without a basis for it.
How often do I not provide a link to substantiate the stuff I say...

And I might add...
You could've simply asked for a reference to the information instead of throwing accusations around like a bloody moron.
Seriously, you're up there with Baerbock, Trudeau and Albanese throwing your hat into the ring for the award of 'Clown of the Year'

How 1000's of Ukraine's GUNS turned up in Israel
http://youtu.be/j_aZSurH4Pc

Baldrick, you definitely get the clown of the year award,

The $5bn of aid was delivered from 1991 mostly well before the popular uprising against Putin's puppet. You have zero evidence that it was paid to fund the uprising.

As for the guns supplied to Hamas they were almost exclusively Russian or Chinese not from the US or Ukraine as you claimed.

I see the surprise introduction of the ATACMS cluster munitions to hit air bases, warehouses and troop concentrations way behind the front lines with 8 Russian helicopters destroyed, dozens of Russian soldiers killed and at least one ammunition warehouse destroyed.

Russia has called off its offensive against Avdivka due to the massive losses of tanks, APVs and soldiers.

Russia is losing this war.

I'm not sure if what you're saying is better or worse.
Let's say you're right, that's still over 220 million per year since the fall of the soviet union 'promoting democracy'.
It dates back even longer than Zbigniew Brzezinski's Grand chessboard.
http://english.almayadeen.net/articles/analysis/ukraine-is-a-pawn-on-the-grand-chessboard

https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/fp/schmidt.html
They should not, however, endorse all his conclusions, least of all his aim and conviction that what is good for the United States is good for the world. The author welcomes further progress in European integration and the eastward expansion of NATO. But he refers to the countries of the region as if they were clients and dependents of the United States.

I don't know about 8.
I know about 3 or possibly 5.
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1714279786170945566

They'd have to keep this up for a year straight to make any difference, and the US is trying to get them 100bln and cut them loose in December till the US elections.

Hi AC,

Russia just lost a number of helicopters. Do you think that the Ukrainians might be using a new drone to target them? I know that they have been experimenting with drones for the purpose for some time.

Oh yeah Charter Boat,
We had this big argument a while back over the Ukrainian language laws.
I did in fact find out a little more why it was such an issue.

Remember how you even acknowledge that Ukrainian had to be used in Ukrainian government institutions.

- That included Schools -

Russian speaking kids in Russian speaking regions weren't able to use the Russian language at school.

Baldrick,

The Russian milbloggers are claiming 9 helicopters amongst other equipment were destroyed. The ATACMS missile carries nearly 1000 small bomblets that will pepper an area 300m in diameter with shrapnel. Even aircraft that weren't completely destroyed won't be airworthy without many months of refurbishment.

There was also plenty of other equipment destroyed and about 35 soldiers killed.

Baldrick,

When the USSR fell apart, Ukraine was in a parlous state. The USA helped finance Ukraine along with other ex-Soviet countries such as Germany, Poland, Lithuania etc. The funding for Ukraine was over more than 23 years and had bugger all to do with the popular uprising.

As for making Ukrainian the national language, it was bound to happen. Russian wasn't forbidden, but everyone needs to learn Ukrainian DUH.

With the delivery of the ATACMS missiles, nowhere in the Donbas is safe for Russians.

Russia is losing this war.

Hi Fester,
Yes, it is known what was used in the attack on the Berdyansk airfield, because the bomblets were found at the scene and identified, and SM is correct.

The AFU used the MGM-140B ATACMS Block 1A (M39A1) ballistic cluster missile fired from HIMARS.
- This missile contains 275-300 M74 submunitions and is capable of hitting targets at a range of up to 300 kilometers.

A NYT article apparently stated that only 20 of these missiles were sent to Ukraine, and according to twiiter sources so far they've used 11.
- Apparently 6 were used in the airfield attack.

Hi Shadow Minister,
"With the delivery of the ATACMS missiles, nowhere in the Donbass is safe for Russians."

Please keep in mind that Ukraine's quantity of these missiles is extremely limited, where Russia's ability to target anywhere, anytime and replace those weapons used is much less limited.

This is just the next installment of Ukraine's 'wonder-weapon' propaganda, at a time when it was desperately needed.

Ukraine may have had a few wins over the last week, but they most certainly have not won the war, and these small wins really don't change anything.
There's is nowhere on the map where Ukraine is taking back any territory.

They are just extending the duration of the war, with no real capability to actually win it.

Baldrick,

The US delivered 20 Missiles so far. As each weighs about 2 tons, they don't come in 6 packs but plenty more will be on their way. What was also delivered was the long-range HIMARS missiles with a range of 150km. Nowhere in the Donbas are Russian soldiers safe.

Ukraine has been destroying so many Russian tanks and APVs and artillery that Russia is now finding itself out gunned in all these areas. Also, the latest AA missile systems have enabled 3 Su25s to be shot down in the last week alone.

Russia is losing this war.

Hi AC,

Yes, it was ATACMS. Five of them disabled two airfields and Russia's helicopter strike capacity. And Avdiivka has been a disaster so far. I think that the Russian generals thought they could take it with overwhelming force as they did with Soledar or Bakhmut, but instead they had their entire assault force killed and lost a substantial amount of hardware. What is changing is that Russia is losing its artillery along with the rest of its war machinery. While they still have many thousands of gun emplacements along the front, the Ukrainians are getting better at destroying them, perhaps enhanced by reducing Russia's electronic warfare capacity. I note that the recent advance over the Dnipro was enabled by the ATACMS strike on the helicopter base and an intensive drone operation taking out observation posts, artillery pieces and any other hardware they could find, including several trucks.

The danger for Russia is they will start losing the ability to support the entire front line. I think that is close to happening and suspect that the advance will take place in the south where the logistics are hardest for Russia.

Hi Fester,
I think the Russian losses have been overexaggerated.
And I certainly don't think they lost anywhere near as much as the Ukrainians did in the opening days of their counteroffensive in Robotyne but yes they did take some significant losses.
The Ukrainians are getting pretty good with their drones.
And yes it probably was a mistake on the part of Gerasimov.

Before the battle for Avdiivka started the Ukrainians were successful in sending a sabotage team in to take out a bridge west of the city, and this probably had some impact on the outcome, but as I said earlier the defenses there had been built up over 8 or 9 years.
I told you it was going to be bloody, and that we'd say how things went in the coming days, as it turns out not the great for the Russians this time.

Essentially it's just another battle, sometimes they are successful and they gain a foothold, and sometimes it doesn't work out.
The Russians will hold people accountable, regroup, restrategise and look for solutions, it's by no means the end of the war.

I heard the UK MoD has said they expect to try again at some point and carpet bomb the city into rubble.
The loss of the helicopters is pretty bad, but they haven't lost experienced pilots in the attack which are just important.
I think Russia has been copping a bit of flak during the war for not having protective shelters for aircraft, this may force them to rethink that complacency.

Yes, that is interesting AC. The Ukrainians have moved to smaller operations and they seem better at coordinating their forces. Cutting that bridge made the defence of Avdiivka easier along with the ATACMS strike, which also enabled the counterattack in Kherson.

What I've heard about the assaults on Avdiivka is that they were not as well supported with artillery, used fewer tanks and armoured personnel carriers along with fewer troops, and the assaults were made in daylight over open fields, most of which were mined. Such assaults might make sense if the Ukrainians were close to running out of ammunition, but it seems a waste of life and equipment for no gain thus far.

I've also heard that Russia has lost about 70% of it KA-52 attack helicopters. That could prove significant. Despite it all, I still think Russia a much stronger force than Shadowminister thinks it to be, but at least the Ukrainians seem to have a battle plan.

But am sure that we are in complete agreement of the total horror of it all. Just sickening and for what? A lot of Russians could freeze to death this winter if they live long enough. Time to put some bullets in the three stooges and end this tragedy.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/22970

It's in a Ukrainian publication Fester,
I have to take it with a very large spoon of salt
Look at all the other claimed 'phone call intercepts' that are linked at the bottom of the article.

It's not just a physical war, it's also an information war.
You don't think Ukraine is in a position after it's failed counter-offensive and the focus on Israel / Gaza where it has a genuine need to boost morale or give an impression of winning the fight to maintain support for the war amongst Ukrainians?
- Or alternatively try to diminish support for the war amongst Russians?
- Or make claims that Russians are on the verge of collapse to get western partners to commit to more military aid?

They are going to use every opportunity to leverage this recent failed attempt with their information war.

I'm not saying it's all lies, just saying that all things considered this is the exact kind of thing which can't be verified either way and could be used to paint a different picture than what might actually be happening.
- And tomorrow there will be some mention of it in ShadowMinister's ISW reports and be paraded out all over western media as fact.

There are some reports of small Russian gains in Avdiivka, and the Ukrainian attack across the Dnieper in Kherson failed to gain a foothold and the Ukrainians were forced to step back.

But I also heard there were 63 confirmed armoured vehicle losses west of Avdiivka.

Of course AC. I take everything with a grain of salt. I would point out that attempts are made to verify the conversations, but it is difficult as people could easily be arrested in Russia for talking to foreign media.

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-intercepts/

Hi Fester,
Interesting article...
- Or even just the existence of the article.
It shows that I'm not too far off the mark, whether the phone intercept claims are accurate or otherwise.

I'm actually surprised they haven't been using drones to fly in fresh food and medical supplies, drones would be ineffective in say bringing in artillery shells, but they might be able to bring in small amounts of rifle ammunition and grenades for a grenade launchers, if they use them.

It's scary the way that drones have changed the battlefield in modern warfare.
One can only wonder where drone technology might be in a few more years.
The pace of change in the world seems to be happening so quickly lately.

Tank turret toss - we may have a record here
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1715473413093929142

- poor blokes.. damn this war, and all the others

New Russian air to air missile on the Mig-31 has taken down 15 Ukrainian aircraft in 3 days.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-10/russia-s-current-account-surplus-jumps-boosted-by-energy-sales

Russia’s Current-Account Surplus Jumps, Boosted by Energy Sales

- Surplus widened to $16.6 billion in 3Q, beating all forecasts
- Central bank sees recovery in exports adding to surplus

The Wests economic war on Russia backfired badly.

Baldrick,

15 Ukrainian aircraft in 3 days is impressive especially since you claimed that they previously destroyed 400% of their aircraft. Again you have provided zero evidence so we assume that you are lying again.

Two aircraft that the Russians have shot down recently are their own Su25s. Russia has lost 90 fixed-wing aircraft so far this year with about 20 not being from enemy fire. Also, the extended hours being flown are taking many Russian planes to the limit of their designed flying hours.

In Russia's offensive on Avdivka Satelite counts estimate that Russia has lost 6000 men 220 tanks and 800 odd APVs and other vehicles as well as 4 Su25s shot down.

Russia's economy is sinking and Russia is losing this war. Why else would Putin be trying to restart peace talks?

Baldrick,

You're a crap liar! The article you linked to describes how badly the Russian economy is doing and you chose one factoid to "prove" that the sanctions backfired. Seriously?

From the same article:

"The central bank has highlighted deteriorating foreign trade conditions as a key factor in the ruble’s recent slump. The currency weakened by more than 25% since the beginning of the year, the worst performance among emerging markets behind only the Turkish lira and Argentina’s peso."

And

"Still, with Russia’s economy adapting to unprecedented international sanctions over its war in Ukraine, the surplus remains far below levels recorded last year. It reached $40.9 billion in the first nine months of this year, compared with $196 billion in the same period of 2022, underlining pressure on the ruble from diminishing foreign currency earnings.

The central bank expects Russia to record a current-account surplus of just $45 billion this year and $50 billion in 2024."

Russia is losing this war.

I'm going to go easy on you for a little while SM,
Since it seems like you've been copping it a bit from others recently.
- I'm not really the type of person to kick someone when they're down.

I told you earlier in the year that when the currency devalued Russia actually ended up with more ruble for their exports.
The weak currency benefited them.

Right now, you're highlighting the decreased budget surplus.
But this roughly correlates with increased defense spending which has increased more than 3 fold.

The $60 Oil price cap is certainly not working, Russia is getting around $80 a barrel for Urals, and the market is already tight, and there's an expected increase in demand in the coming months.

Furthermore, revenue is expected to grow by more than a third in 2024.
http://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90753

And I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the noose is tightening in Avdiivka, (I tried to argue these things take time) and while the news of Russian losses there has been a talking point in the last week or two, no-one is talking about the huge amount of losses the Ukrainians have been taking recently around Robotyne.

When Ukraine eventually runs out of men and equipment, where are they going to get it from?
Who do you plan on dragging off the street to fight when there's no-one left?
Russia is still getting plenty of volunteers and has budgeted for the increased military spending,
- But without more money and weapons from the West for Ukraine, their situation can only get worse.

Russian forces receive weapons that downed 24 Ukrainian warplanes over 5 days — Shoigu
http://tass.com/politics/1696449

How can Ukraine replace this level of losses?

Baldrick,

For you, I will use simple language reserved for pinheads who can't tell the difference between the current account and the budget.

Russia is running a small current account surplus because it is exporting more than it imports. But the surplus is about 1/4 of what it was a year ago. However, it is running a huge budget deficit because its revenues from oil and gas are 1/3 of what it was a year ago and its expenditure on the war has more than doubled. These are figures published by the Russian Reserve Bank not made up. Also having your currency collapse is never a good thing. No one wants Rubles.

What is made up is the garbage you regurgitate from the Russian MOD or your Twitter fanboys.

The reason that Russians are being massacred in their 1000s are because the victories you boast of are pure fantasy.

Russia is losing this war.

"For you, I will use simple language reserved for pinheads who can't tell the difference between the current account and the budget."

Well thanks for helping me out there... learn something new every day.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/current-account-surplus.asp

I suppose I should return the favour.

Ukraine's Sudden High Air Losses Likely Caused By New Russian Missiles
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/10/ukraines-sudden-high-air-losses-likely-caused-by-new-russian-missiles.html#more

>>Military expert Vladislav Shurygin: The Pentagon has become sharply concerned about the suddenly increased effectiveness of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

In two weeks, the Russians staged a real massacre in the Ukrainian sky. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost at least 10 of their aircraft (according to other sources, 14).

Moreover, all of them were shot down far from the front line and outside the radius of Russian air defense systems, as well as outside the standard radius of Russian fighter missiles. Those pilots who were able to eject reported that until the moment their planes were hit, they did not receive warning information about the attack from the appropriate warning systems.

The Americans believe that the Russian Aerospace Forces have acquired new missiles capable of not only hitting targets at a great distance, but also, after launch, independently pursuing a target without illuminating it from the aircraft’s radar, using a radio signature to guide it (the target).

Now Americans carefully check this information and consider it critically important. Since, if it is confirmed, it means that the Russians have acquired a weapon that will neutralize all the advertised advantages of their new main fighter, the F-35.<<

- Honestly I'm not certain if the claimed aircraft losses are from Russian S-400 missiles being linked to A50 AWACS or this R37M missile.
I don't know how true it all is, but if it is true it's a significant advancement, a game changer even, as US military is largely based on air power.

The Russians Got Close To Avdiivka In The South. Military Summary And Analysis For 2023.10.27
http://youtu.be/oSMzK76amK4

Baldrick,

If you are going to post from whack job sites such as "Moon of Alabama" you should do a little research before you look like an idiot again.

The R37m has been available since 2018 mostly in limited quantities because of its complexity and expense. So is not a new development. However, there is no record of any Ukrainian aircraft being shot down so far in Oct 2023.

Once again more Russian propaganda is faithfully regurgitated by halfwits. You can add these mythical air victories to the 400% of Ukraine's airforce shot down previously.

If you are going to post from whack job sites such as "Moon of Alabama" you should do a little research before you look like an idiot again.

Well you look like an idiot most of the time you type a comment, so what's the big deal?
The website has been around since prior to the invasion and actually has some decent info by people who know a lot more than either you and I.

You just like to piss on anything that doesn't suit your own biases, and you advertise that in almost every comment you make.

I did the right thing and stated that I don't know for sure the truth of it, but I most certainly know that Shoigu stated 24 aircraft downed in 5 days, but you'd rather believe the Ukrainian ministry of propaganda in bed with the CIA, probably the same breed of lunatics that brought us the Christopher Steele dossier and Iraqi WMDs.

"The R37m has been available since 2018 mostly in limited quantities because of its complexity and expense."
- Yes I know, but something is new - and that comes from the mouths of Ukrainian pilots apparently.

New Missile System 'Downed 24 Ukrainian Jets in Five Days,' Russia Claims
http://www.newsweek.com/russia-shoigu-donetsk-visit-missile-system-1837724
"Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has said Moscow's forces have received new missile systems that have shot down 24 Ukrainian jets over the past few days."

"Once again more Russian propaganda is faithfully regurgitated by halfwits."
Do you want to know who else is a halfwit?
Hint - Look in the mirror.

- Go ahead and send the F-16s and the 'Flying Turd' F-35s
- And we shall both see what happens...

Whatever happened to your F-16s anyway?
Going by this info above Ukraine will be needing them pretty soon.

Ru forces are reportedly assaulting the Coke plant.
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1717904892571066427

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1717664115253031377
The situation on the Avdivka front is deteriorating for the Ukrainian side. Recent Russian advances threaten supply routes to the city. From now on any breakthrough will have a very important value in this heavily fortified stronghold. The evacuation of civilians should begin soon while Ukrainian reinforcements from other areas are being redeployed to contain Russian advances and prevent the encirclement of Avdivka. There is talk of larger Russian advances, but none of them confirmed, instead, the rains have allowed the arrival of new reinforcements that will add to the battle little as already mentioned this battle is going to be slow and costly, similar to what we saw in Bakhmut.

A closer look at Avdiivka.
http://earth.google.com/web/@48.17707364,37.71522303,210.14546065a,6970.73680493d,35y,48.35044241h,62.32254557t,360r/data=OgMKATA

Video taken from the Russian positions at the southern end of the city looking north towards the coke plant.
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1717884455409357267/video/1

'Russian attack helicopters are now working on Ukrainian observation positions in the Avdeevka coke plant.
If this stronghold falls so does Avdeevka.'

Pentagon Sees Months Left in Supply of Weapons for Ukraine
http://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-plays-down-u-s-funding-snag-4846cfff

'Defense officials expect coffers to dry out after spending bill omits more funding for war effort'

Baldrick,

When you post screeds of unmitigated garbage that is obviously Russian propaganda followed by a feeble disclaimer "I don't know how true it all is" it makes you look like a moron or an outright liar.

For starters if what Shoigu claimed was true the Ukrainian army would have been destroyed completely several times over, its airforce would have lost every aircraft 4x over, and all its tanks would have been destroyed long ago. Only a halfwit would believe this BS without questioning, or if you know it's BS then you are simply a liar.

As for the storming of Avdivka, this was reported by a few optimistic Russian milbloggers but is far from true as the Russians are yet to cross the railway line. In the last few days, Ukraine has nearly doubled its artillery and drone squads.

What you should watch is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_4M5dTHIU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS4FOtzQo1o&t=140s

As for the F16s, they are due early next year and come with very long-range air-to-air missiles that outrange the R37ms and have a far higher kill rate.

Also coming next year are the ATCMS missiles with a 300km range that can take out the Kerch bridge, and the 150km range HIMARS missiles.

Ukraine front collapsing. Ukraine announces Mandatory evacuation of children in Kupiansk district
http://youtu.be/6641ndJBN8k

I heard the Ukrainian Air Force is on it's last legs, and their air defense has been largely rendered ineffective, enough for their A50 AWACS to safely move close enough for their radar systems and S-400 to target any aircraft flying, then you have the issue that they are running out of men and are sending barely trained women into fight, also many troops are being destroyed behind the front line before they even engage at the front, also the Russians will gain a foothold in Avdeevka in the coming few days and Ukraine will lose that important strategic city, oh and they can't keep up the weapon supply for much longer either.

I also heard the west is preparing narratives for Ukraine's inevitable collapse.
They can't prevent Ukraine from losing the war, but they wish to spin it in a way that it wasn't the Wests fault, and they did everything they could.

Baldrick,

Whenever you say "I heard" I know that what is going to follow is pure drivel.

According to forbes that you like to quote so often:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/06/the-ukrainian-air-force-lost-62-planes-in-2022-so-far-in-2023-it-has-lost-just-seven/?sh=20391b3841b3

Not only has Ukraine lost only 7 fixed-wing aircraft this year, but they have received 45 ex-soviet fighters from other countries and will receive up to 60 F16s in the new year giving it more and better aircraft than Ukraine started the war with and with far better air to air missiles and longer range HARM missiles to take out Russian air defences.

As for air defences, the Patriot air defences are shooting down 100% of the Khinzal missiles and most other missiles as well as well as 6 Su25s at Avdivka this month.

I also see that Russia is calling for peace negotiations. Not surprising seeing how badly the Russian army is doing.

Yeah...

That's why we see Russia send drones and missiles...
Blow the shite out of everything, and then Ukraine says "We took down all 18 drones and missiles fired"...

Huh?

Charter boat, what charter boat, charter boat.

"HARM missiles to take out Russian air defences."
- Harm missiles are to take out Russian ground based radar...
But they don't work well, Russia jams them and they miss their targets
Not only that it won't matter if Russia is using its AWACS radar systems which are much larger range with their S-400.

Total of 7 in 2023 till August?
No wonder they're throwing conniption fits losing some 25 aircraft in 5 days.
Hurry up and send the F16's and our F 18's
- more scrap metal for Putin's western demilitarisation trash compactor.

Baldrick,

It's more the case that the Ukrainians are blowing the crap out of the Russians. 14 helicopters in one night for example. An oil refinery, a Rusky training camp.

Run Rusky run. OOps, more rotting Russians.

Russia is losing this war.

Ukraine official says it can't properly use its Western kit because it has so few soldiers left, report says
http://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/ukraine-official-says-it-cant-properly-use-its-western-kit-because-it-has-so-few-soldiers-left-report-says/articleshow/104864630.cms

Baldrick,

I remember you saying the same thing just before Ukraine kicked the Russians out of Kharkiv and Kherson.

The Ukrainian army is standing at about 500,000 and has been massacring Russians in the 1000s and destroying their aircraft, tanks etc at an ever-increasing rate.

"Ukraine kicked the Russians out of Kharkiv and Kherson."

Ukraine never kicked anyone out of anywhere.
Except Robotyne maybe, what good that was.

Baldrick,

You seem to be suffering from dementia. In July 2022 Russia occupied much of Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson city. At the end of 2022, Russia bravely ran away donating nearly 500 tanks to Ukraine and leaving 1000s of rotting Russians.

Russia is losing this war.

No I don't have dementia,
Maybe you have Ukrainian delusions of grandeur.

Russians withdrew, Ukrainians merely took up abandoned Russian positions.

And that was why the Ukrainians counteroffensive was a complete failure.
The Ukrainian and western plan envisaged Russians running away.
Weren't they fighting with shovels?
Running out of missiles everyday?

There is no possibility that Ukraine can take back it's territory.
There is no possibility that Ukraine can win the war.
You live in fantasy land SM, as delusional as a 'Yes' voter.

Ukraine can have all the weapons on the planet and it won't help them now,
They don't have the troop numbers to use them.

Maidan snipers: Recent findings in a lengthy case have cast doubt on the very roots of the current Ukraine crisis
http://www.rt.com/russia/586192-maidan-snipers-ukraine-kiev/

>>The rich detail of Katchanovski’s findings cannot be reproduced here, but three points should be noted: Snipers belonging to the insurgents’ side started shooting at the police on the morning of February 20; key positions, such as in the Hotel Ukraina and a conservatory, from which these policemen were attacked and later Maidan protesters as well, were and remained under the control of insurgent units (not the police); and after 9.00 am, protesters, too, were shot by insurgent snipers (again: not by the police).

In sum, two things happened, according to Katchanovski’s findings: Insurgent snipers first shot at the police to provoke an escalation, and then, in addition, even killed protesters – that is, those on their own side. At the same time, Katchanovski does not rule out the possibility that the police also shot protesters. But his careful analysis of video and other evidence shows that many victims, likely the majority, were targeted by insurgent shooters.

Katchanovski has come to these conclusions through years-long, rigorous, and exhaustive forensic research, as summarized in his peer-reviewed article “The ‘Snipers’ Massacre’ on the Maidan in Ukraine” in Cogent Social Sciences, an academic journal published by Taylor and Francis. He has not been the only one reaching such or similar results, but his work is the most thorough and important independent investigation.<<

The 'snipers massacre' on the Maidan in Ukraine
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23311886.2023.2269685

Maidan snipers & Ukrainian proxies w/ Ivan Katchanovski
http://youtu.be/E56IVQY_Sx4

US-made F-16s will survive just a few weeks in Ukraine – Moscow
http://www.rt.com/russia/586346-shoigu-ukraine-f16-fleet/
'Russian air defenses are proving highly successful at downing Ukrainian planes, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said'

>>Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed on Wednesday that the entire fleet of F-16 warplanes pledged to Kiev by Western donors could be destroyed in less than three weeks. He based his claim on the high rate of success shown by Russian air defenses in shooting down Ukrainian military aircraft last month.

Speaking at a ministerial meeting, Shoigu praised Russian forces for conducting over 1,400 successful intercepts in October. He said the figure included 37 Ukrainian planes, almost twice the number of F-16s that foreign nations intended to give to Kiev.

“If our air defense forces work this way, [the F16 fleet] amounts to roughly 20 days of work,” he predicted.<

http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1719367722721775935
Azov commander Dmitro Kukharchuk talks about how Ukraine is strategically losing the war.

Current war stats as per the Russian side

>>MOSCOW, October 20. /TASS/. Russian forces have destroyed 500 Ukrainian combat aircraft and more than 250 helicopters since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Friday.

"In all, the following targets have been destroyed since the start of the special military operation: 500 aircraft, 252 helicopters, 8,104 unmanned aerial vehicles, 441 surface-to-air missile systems, 12,778 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,165 multiple rocket launchers, 6,837 field artillery guns and mortars and 14,463 special military motor vehicles," the ministry said in a statement.<<

http://tass.com/politics/1694461?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/us-european-officials-broach-topic-peace-negotiations-ukraine-sources-rcna123628
'The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal with Russia.'

"WASHINGTON — U.S. and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official familiar with the discussions.

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as delicate, took place last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 nations supporting Ukraine, including NATO members, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the officials said.

The discussions are an acknowledgment of the dynamics militarily on the ground in Ukraine and politically in the U.S. and Europe, officials said."

http://twitter.com/baronitaigas/status/1720921592178368550

>>"A significant share of responsibility for the faith of the average citizen in our quick and beautiful victory lies with me personally. I created an illusion so that we would survive. Today I am destroying it so that we can survive"

- Former Presidential Advisor Arestovich<<

Baldrick,

You lie so much that no one can take you seriously. You claim "the following targets have been destroyed since the start of the special military operation: 500 aircraft, 252 helicopters, 8,104 unmanned aerial vehicles, 441 surface-to-air missile systems, 12,778 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,165 multiple rocket launchers, 6,837 field artillery guns and mortars and 14,463 special military motor vehicles," the ministry said in a statement."

This is between 4 and 10 times the number of aircraft, tanks helicopters etc that Ukraine has ever owned. Only a moron would repeat this drivel and expect anyone to believe it.

In the liberation of the Kharkiv oblast, Russia was routed leaving behind 1000s of dead and hundreds of fully functional tanks and armoured vehicles tons of ammunition and 100s of Russian prisoners. Russia's flight from Kherson was a heavy defeat and loss of equipment especially after Russia declared it to be Russian territory. This was mostly brought on by Ukrainians destroying the bridges over the river and making Russian resupply very difficult.

Recently Ukraine destroyed a brand-new Russian warship docked in Kerch.

As for the potential negotiations, the bottom line is that Russia will have to withdraw from all the areas it has occupied. The discussions are largely about the reparations and sanctions.

How ya goin there charter boat...

"Russia's flight from Kherson was a heavy defeat and loss of equipment especially after Russia declared it to be Russian territory. This was mostly brought on by Ukrainians destroying the bridges over the river and making Russian resupply very difficult."

That wasn't the main reasons, I told you what it was many times.
The risk of Ukraine blowing up the Kharkovka dam, (which they later did) the fact that the troops were overstretched at a time where many soldiers 6mth contracts had ended and many did not renew them, and a need shorten the front line (because they were overstretched) and that they needed to build up defenses in Zaporozhye (Surovikin line)
- Remember General Armageddon, - he was promoted at that time...
His job was to build up Russian defenses, and he did a fairly good job too because Ukraine hasn't managed to penetrate them.

So say whatever you want...
His decision to strategically withdrawl was unpopular and a retreat nonetheless but Russian defenses as well as turning Bakhmut and Andrivka into a firebag has broken the back of Ukraine, leaving them completely incapable of weapons and troops to wage any further counteroffensive.

All Ukraine can do is pinprick attacks that just prolong the conflict and mean more dead Ukrainians, as well as demilitarising and bankrupting the west.

And not only has America lost it's war in Ukraine...
It's lost in own people and nation as well.
The Republican party has become increasingly Pro-Putin.
http://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=Republican+anti-russia+becomes+pro-putin

How the GOP became the party of Putin
http://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-the-gop-became-the-party-of-putin/

Small segment about the issue above on ABC's Planet America, if you can cop it.

"Recently Ukraine destroyed a brand-new Russian warship docked in Kerch."
Yeah they wrecked it up pretty good didn't they.
But its not sunk, and no sailors lost, maybe some poor Russian sods welding and fitting the corvette out copped it.

- Maybe Ukraine should try taking back some actual territory instead of looking for propaganda wins,
... oh that's right they tried that and failed didn't they.
So I guess this is all they can do to keep the fantasy alive.

They could take out 20 yet-to-be commissioned warships and it won't do a damn thing to take back their lost territory would it?

"As for the potential negotiations, the bottom line is that Russia will have to withdraw from all the areas it has occupied. The discussions are largely about the reparations and sanctions."

Right now the discussions are...
Civil war in the Ukrainian government, Zelensky V's Zuluznhy
US funding has almost dried up completely.
And the Americans are trying to figure out how to make a loss look like a stalemate and keep that going till next November (fat chance) , Whilst Zelensky is saying it's not a stalemate, because he's just about reached his use-by date.
It's honestly time for him to jump on a plane, go to a different country and resign.
Russia probably doesn't mind Zelensky, they would rather have an incompetent idiot in charge than risking someone better.
Also there's a push for, and an increase of women fighting, which means Ukraines military lethality with be decreased, because women just can't do things at the same level men can in military combat.

So Ukraine might be able to conduct terrorist like attacks and assassinations, but they are much further away from being capable of taking back territory now than they ever were.

"As for the potential negotiations, the bottom line is that Russia will have to withdraw from all the areas it has occupied. The discussions are largely about the reparations and sanctions."

Nar, Lol.
Ukraine will run out of troops, weapons and cash before Russia does and will have to accept Russian terms, unconditional surrender as well as agree to the loss of territory, and more it will yet take, No NATO, limits on size of military, No Nazis, and leadership not hostile to Russia which I can tell you are going to hurt so badly that no Ukrainian leader may be able to accept them, but they won't have much choice.

Russia is achieving it's military goals.
Russia has largely destroyed the Ukrainians military already.
It's mostly all downhill from here.

You've got to be kidding me Lol

http://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1722932457182290179
>>BOMBSHELL: There was no counteroffensive! It was a psychological operation to fool the Russians to think that there was one!<<

Tell it to the Ukrainians rotting in the fields at Robotyne
- Near the Bradley and Leopard 2 graveyard.

Russians have crossed the train lines, entered Stepove and repelled the Ukrainian counter attacks.
Well see if they can hold this small village and continue to make further advances.
This could be the beginning of the fall of Avdeevka.

Baldrick,

You've been droning on about how Ukraine's army has been destroyed for more than a year, yet somehow the Russians keep getting the crap kicked out of them. The Orcs are not in Stepove, they might have crossed the railway but for a massive loss in men and machinery and the fields are full of rotting Russians. Their gains are a fraction of what Ukraine has recently gained in Kherson and Zaporizhia.

Russians have lost so much equipment that they are sending in T55s and are now begging other countries to sell them back the arms they supplied to them previously.

Dream on, Russia has lost one brand new ship and recently another 2 small landing vessels. The small missile carrier that was not sunk is so badly damaged that it would be easier to build a new one.

Russia's economy is running huge deficits and will run out of reserves shortly.

"You've been droning on about how Ukraine's army has been destroyed for more than a year, yet somehow the Russians keep getting the crap kicked out of them."
- It's happening slowly, it will reach a tipping point and then happen quickly.

"The Orcs are not in Stepove, they might have crossed the railway but for a massive loss in men and machinery and the fields are full of rotting Russians."
- Umm, yes they are...

Russian Breakthrough North Of Avdiivka.
http://youtu.be/SxdyvCUz_C0

"Their gains are a fraction of what Ukraine has recently gained in Kherson and Zaporizhia."
Kherson is at a stalemate, neither side can do much right now - the front line aside, it's a battle for the middle ground atm; artillery, and drones - whoever wins there may gain an edge to advance further.

What's going on in Zaporizhia?

Baldrick,

You have boldly declared Russian victories so often that it is not funny. That nearly all of them were bollocks coming from the Russian propaganda sites shows that only an idiot such as yourself would keep on believing them.

If Russia is doing so well why is it begging for the weapons it sold to be returned? It has in the last month or so lost well over 200 tanks and APS, 7 SU25s 15 helicopters and about 5000 men. Russia is conscripting another 400,000 men because the 300,000 previously conscripted are mostly dead or wounded.

If you haven't been following what is happening in Kherson or Zaporizhia you need to look as Ukraine is making slow but steady progress on both fronts.

When the long-range ATACMS arrive the Kerch bridge will be toast, and Ukraine is building scores of long-range stealth drones to take out Russian infrastructure all through western Russia.

Russia is losing this war.

"Russia is losing this war."

You want to know why this statement is absolute fantasy?
- Because Ukraine is completely incapable of taking back territory or winning the war
Russia can replace lost troops
(but it is building up it's military to 1.5 million anyway)
Ukraine can't.

So pop on your pj's and go back to dreamland.

Baldrick,

Do you want to know why it's not a fantasy? Russia cannot win this war.

Firstly, Ukraine can and has recaptured territory in Kherson Kharkiv, Robotyne, and South of Bahkmut so it can and does advance.

Secondly, Russia is not prepared for a long war, and its huge number of tanks, planes, helicopters, ships, air defence systems, artillery etc are being continuously depleted at a rate that Russia cannot replace and Russia is chewing through its stores. While Russia can call up many soldiers for the slaughter they are running out of weapons and the Russian public's patience for a continuous slaughter of their menfolk in a war without end is not limitless and led to the evacuation of Afghanistan.

Thirdly, Ukraine is getting plenty of ammunition and more and more powerful weapons including in the next few months F16s with their array of new weapons which only an idiot would dismiss, and the long-range ATACMS which can take out the Kerch bridge.

Fourthly Russia's economy is taking a huge beating and is running huge deficits. Russia's GDP is less than Italy's and cannot match the weapons output of the 51 countries supporting Ukraine. Inflation is ramping up with interest rates and the Ruble is collapsing. 1/3 of the entire Russian budget is spent on the war and there is a shortage of men to run businesses as nearly 3 million have left since 2014, 1.5 million are now in the army (mostly in logistics) and about 300,000 are dead or badly injured.

Russia is losing this war

"Thirdly, Ukraine is getting plenty of ammunition and more and more powerful weapons including in the next few months F16s with their array of new weapons which only an idiot would dismiss, and the long-range ATACMS which can take out the Kerch bridge."

I really hope they hurry up and send the F-16s soon.
Russia has missiles that can travel 400klms so there's no way they're getting near the frontline.
Ugh. I guess we wont get any footage of them being blown to pieces
That is if you can find someone to fly them.

How come we don't see explosions like Israel did in Ukraine?
Oh yeah that's right US junk only works on peasant people not real militaries.

Can you tell Biden to hurry up, send all his junk, and to give it his best shot.
Btw, Russians are now moving east of Stepove to Berdychi
If they take it the situation for Ukraine in that city will become critical.

Send all the weapons, not sure there are any people left to use them but great for Russian fireworks.

Slava Ukraini!

The US is spending 89 billion a month in interest and it will keep going higher.
I hope they keep spending. Send more weapons, send everything.

Great discussion.

WAR Against NATO Not Russia | China vs. USA | BRICS | Michael Hudson
http://youtu.be/rPib_bhpwJk

US military bases in Syria attacked with 15 missiles + drones. Several US soldiers were kill@d.
http://youtu.be/a6_cKK-9RQI

Hey Charter Boat,
How do you think America would go opening a third front against Iran?

I think Iranian proxies are just going to constantly niggle at them.
Not enough to start a full blown war, but enough to keep them constantly on their toes firing off 50(qty) US$1 million dollar missiles a day at a dozen or so cheap drones with a couple of US servicemen killed every now and again.

Enough to wear them down with attrition that puts pressure on their military manufacturing to the point they either have to start a new war against Iran, which would take a million men (that the US doesn't have) or leave.

If I was Iran, that's what I would do.
And the US has plenty of bases in that neck of the woods to choose from.
Just rotate between the targets and never stop, keep it going every day, day after day - and deny any involvement.

I've heard talk that the troops in the Ukrainian army has started refusing to fight.
Maybe they're starting to lose all hope, and don't want to die for a lost cause.
Like I told you SM, slowly at first, then quickly.

Baldrick,

There are plenty of pictures of Russians being blown to bits by US weapons so according to you they are peasants.

There won't be photos of the F16s being shot down because the Russian fantasy missile is pretty useless. There are plenty of pictures of Russian aircraft being shot out of the sky, 7 in the last month.

The US economy is 13 times larger than Russia's. Russia's GDP was $2.3T in 2013 and is 1.8T today and is predicted to drop by 2.5% in 2023 despite running a huge deficit. Russia's oil and gas revenue has more than halved.

Russian airlines are running out of spare parts and are now having frequent failures. It is only a matter of time before they start falling out of the sky.

Russian equipment and soldiers are rotting in the fields in huge quantities.

Russia is losing this war.

"There are plenty of pictures of Russians being blown to bits by US weapons so according to you they are peasants."
- We'll we don't seem to see those missiles shown dropping buildings in Israel and those huge explosions occurring in Ukraine.

"There won't be photos of the F16s being shot down because the Russian fantasy missile is pretty useless. There are plenty of pictures of Russian aircraft being shot out of the sky, 7 in the last month."
- Russia shot down 25 aircraft in 5 days, and Zelensky is begging for the F-16s.

"The US economy is 13 times larger than Russia's. Russia's GDP was $2.3T in 2013 and is 1.8T today and is predicted to drop by 2.5% in 2023 despite running a huge deficit. Russia's oil and gas revenue has more than halved."
- I'm not sure this is the bigger picture here, you'll have to watch that Michael Hudson video I posted last night, I think he said GDP isn't the best measure.

The US is in big trouble.
They're paying well over 1 trillion in interest a year now and it's going up rapidly. 40% of tax receipts are used to pay off debt, their last treasury note sale was a failure, Saudi Arabia is moving away from the US and they face another US shutdown soon.

"Russian airlines are running out of spare parts and are now having frequent failures. It is only a matter of time before they start falling out of the sky."
- Russia are building their own commercial aircraft now.
http://simpleflying.com/russia-il-96-400m-stretch-1st-flight/
China has also built it's own, so Russia probably doesn't need western aircraft as badly as you think it does.

"Russian equipment and soldiers are rotting in the fields in huge quantities."
- Maybe so, but nowhere near as much as the Ukrainians.

Baldrick,

The only "aircraft" that Russia has shot down in the last month are a few drones not one piloted aircraft. You have not been able to produce any evidence. P.S. Another Russian SU25 was shot down yesterday.

As for the Russian-built passenger jets, the first one has taken its maiden flight but no more are expected until they can access components from the West. Likewise, China has only produced one. There is no realistic replacement for Russia's 550 western-built jets.

As for US economic data, you really should stop repeating the bollocks you read on Twitter. The US tax revenues are roughly $5bn federally and $5bn at the state level so the 40% is just more of your bullsh1t.

At the moment the Russians are losing about 10x as many men and pieces of equipment as the Ukrainians as they are attacking over open fields against entrenched positions.

I see that Russia had another go at Vuledar and lost 180 tanks and vehicles and a few 100s of soldiers.

Baldrick,

I see that Russia is losing so much equipment and ammunition that their dear leader Putin has to allocate 40% of the Russian budget to the war.

So much for health care, schooling pensions etc.

I'm sure that the public is thrilled with their increasing poverty and their menfolk coming home in coffins or pieces.

I see that Ukraine is losing Avdiivka,
- as expected.

I see that Ukraine is losing the war,
- as expected.

Baldrick,

You must be talking about a different Avdiivka. The one I am watching is where Russians are being slaughtered in the 1000s and the fields are full of rotting Russians, burnt-out tanks APVs and 8 Su25s. The front line hasn't moved more than a few meters in the last week while Russians are losing up to 1000 soldiers killed a day.

If this is winning then Russia will run out of soldiers and equipment before it gets much further.

As for the Russian economy, it is getting thrashed. Oil and gas revenues are about 1/2 of what it was last year, and 40% of the budget is going to the war effort and Russia is running a huge budget deficit. Real inflation is skyrocketing and real wages of most Russians is about 1/2 of what is was prior to Russia's illegal and unprovoked invasion.

Russia is losing this war.

"In audio intercepts from the front lines in Ukraine, Russian soldiers speak in shorthand of 200s to mean dead, 300s to mean wounded. The urge to flee has become common enough that they also talk of 500s — people who refuse to fight.

As the war grinds into its second winter, a growing number of Russian soldiers want out, as suggested in secret recordings obtained by The Associated Press of Russian soldiers calling home from the battlefields of the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions in Ukraine.

The calls offer a rare glimpse of the war as it looked through Russian eyes — a point of view that seldom makes its way into Western media, largely because Russia has made it a crime to speak honestly about the conflict in Ukraine. They also show clearly how the war has progressed, from the professional soldiers who initially powered Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion to men from all walks of life compelled to serve in grueling conditions.

“There’s no f-- ‘dying the death of the brave’ here,” one soldier told his brother from the front in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. “You just die like a f-- earthworm.”

The prospect of another wave of mobilization lingers, even as Moscow has been trying to lure people into signing contracts with the military. Russia’s annual autumn conscription draft kicked off in October, pulling in some 130,000 fresh young men. Though Moscow says conscripts won’t be sent to Ukraine, after a year of service they automatically become reservists — prime candidates for mobilization."

So soldiers are using code 'apples' 'oranges' and 'bananas' to mean dead, wounded and refuse to fight.
Ukrainians are dying, getting wounded and refusing to fight.
And you got this info from where - the same people who gave us the 'ghost of Kiev'?
- And Russia is planning an army of 1.5 million after NATO expansion.

Your comment's a nothingburger charter boat.

Baldrick,

And where did you get the gem that Ukraine is losing Avdivvka? Did you pull it out of your arse?

The reality is that the lines around Avdivvka have barely moved in nearly 2 months and that the ground around the city is littered with 1000s of Russian corpses and hundreds of destroyed Russian tanks, APVs and artillery.

Russia is losing this war badly.

Republicans aren't giving money for Ukraine without a deal on the southern border.
- No one got a deal on the border in decades.
Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, no one got a deal done.

Will Ukraine face political collapse before military collapse?
Or will the fighting pregnant women save the day?

Either way, Ukraine is running out of weapons, money and men.
No money to run the government, no money for hospitals or pensions.
Game over Ukraine.

I told you they'd get cut loose in December.
I think Joe would like to keep the human meat waves coming for at least a few more months, it don't look good for his re-election.
The blame game has begun, political strife in Ukraine is evidence of it.

Baldrick,

You are grasping at straws. The issue in the US is temporary. The EU has just given Ukraine 15bn euro and the flow of arms to Ukraine will continue.

What hasn't stopped is the slaughter of Russians and the destruction of their tanks, APVs aircraft and warehouses at record rates with little to no progress for the Russians.

And while the coffins stream back to Russia, the Ukrainian special services are blowing up Russian infrastructure left right and centre. The two rail routes to China are badly damaged, the tank engine factory burnt down, an explosive factory blew up and fires are starting all over Russia.

Russia's domestic aviation is collapsing:

"A passenger plane carrying 182 passengers and six crew members from Kazan to Moscow made an emergency landing at Moscow's Sheremetyevo Airport after the stabilization control system failed, The Moscow Times reported on Dec. 5. This is the sixth Russian plane to experience a mid-air breakdown in a week.

An Aeroflot Airbus A321 flying from St. Petersburg to Moscow requested an emergency landing at Sheremetyevo Airport on Dec. 2. The decision to make an emergency landing was made due to the failure of the left engine.

Breakdowns of Russian civilian aircraft have become more frequent after sanctions imposed over the full-scale invasion of Ukraine cut Russia off from aircraft maintenance and the supply of original spare parts.

Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency, Rosaviatsia, issued aircraft manufacturers' certificates to airlines to keep the planes in service. This allowed the airlines to make repairs themselves, after which they began cannibalizing some planes for components to service the rest of their fleet.

Since spring 2022, airlines have required their staff not to record equipment defects in their logbooks, which often resulted in planes being rendered inoperable."

Russia is losing the war.

Well the price of victory doesn't come cheap.
But for the Ukrainians it will be 'unconditional surrender'.

I'm interested to know how your brain will break when Ukraine and the west accept defeat, which is more or less where we are at already.

The EU and the US can talk up all the billions in funding it wants.
Throwing money around does not equate to industrial capacity to produce said weapons and the West can't match Russia's ability to replace munitions it uses.

Zelenskyy warns that supply of vital artillery ammunition to Ukraine has 'really slowed down'
http://abcnews.go.com/International/zelenskyy-warns-supply-vital-artillery-ammunition-ukraine-slowed/story?id=104976430

'The EU has just given Ukraine 15bn euro'

Maybe the Ukrainians can throw Euros at the Russians instead of firing ammunition at them, when it runs out?

'The EU has just given Ukraine 15bn euro'
- the 15 bln it skimmed off Russias frozen central bank assets?

How those Eurotrash lapdogs can bend over and pull their cheeks apart for their US masters without blowback from their constituents is beyond me.

Considering you're one of the United States and Israels top altar boys I'm sure you'd be impressed with their loyal conviction.

Baldrick,

As you are one of Putin's rent boys most of what you spout is drivel. This is about the 10th time that you have claimed that Ukraine is beaten and about to surrender and each time they come back and kick the sh1t out of the Russians.

After 3 months of getting their troops slaughtered and littering the countryside with their burnt-out tanks and AFVs, the Russians have switched to "active defence". The toll on the Russians at Avdivvka is estimated to be 13,000 killed or wounded, and about 1000 armoured vehicles incl tanks and 8 aircraft. Most of these are eliminated well before reaching the front line.

Russia's fighting strength is now only about 50% of what it was before its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and its economy is circling the drain.

The question is how will it will take for Russians to put Putin before a firing squad and leave Ukraine including Crimea.

By Rachel Lyngaas, Chief Sanctions Economist, U.S. Department of Treasury

Putin is feeling the impacts of his war in Ukraine. Sanctions and export controls are damaging Russia’s economy and limiting its access to the financing and material goods needed to wage its illegitimate war of choice. The United States and our partners have targeted Russia’s primary revenue drivers and access to defence materials, asymmetrically inflicting harm while minimizing unintended spillovers. While Russia has the resources to maintain its war in the short term, its leaders face increasingly painful tradeoffs that will sacrifice long-term prospects — as underinvestment, slow productivity growth, and labour shortages will only deepen.

Three major forces are acting in concert with the Russian economy: the war itself, U.S. and partners’ sanctions and related measures, and the Russian government’s policy response to those measures. As a result of these forces, the Russian economy is reorienting away from private consumption and towards defence spending at the expense of Russian citizens, who will face a long-term decline in living standards.

four key conclusions:

Russia’s macroeconomic performance is suffering due to its war and the impact of the United States and our partners’ sanctions and economic measures. Russians are voting with their feet and leaving the country.
Russia is experiencing increasing fiscal pressure due to growing expenditures and the impact of sanctions on its revenues.
Russia’s policy responses to our sanctions are growing increasingly expensive for Russia.
The United States and our partners have taken innovative measures to spare the global economy from unnecessary damage from Russia’s war.

"The question is how will it will take for Russians to put Putin before a firing squad and leave Ukraine including Crimea."

- Well that was Americas aim all along and it's failed spectacularly.
I suppose you could go another step further and say that the true cause is the United States relentless push for the expansion of NATO
So desperate have the West been to achieve this goal that anytime there was a leader in Ukraine that did not support joining NATO, the West (who funded opposition groups) sponsored a coup against the democratically elected government.
- Orange Revolution, Maidan.

Western neoconservatives are obsessed with removing Putin.
Maybe they wanted to install Navalny, have western monopoly capitalists loot Russia for all it's resources, balkanise Russia into smaller 'sovereign' (vassal) states the Western and European powers can rule over and exploit better for the elites.

The West has failed to cause an economical or political crisis that could lead to Putin's ousting.
Russia is not weaker, it is more powerful now.
The West has failed in their Ukrainian counteroffensive.
There's no more funding, weapons or Ukrainian men to fill boots to fight the war.
They can't take back the territory.

US pays for everything, and it's expensive.
No more Ukrainian pensions, no payments to doctors and medical staff
No money for teachers, firemen, no money for government.
No more weapons (which aren't coming from stockpiles anyway which have been emptied) they come from new purchase orders, that enrich corrupt politicians that get jobs for their state and kickbacks.
The West has failed in it's war against Russia, using Ukraine as it's proxy.

The European leaders have completely screwed over their countries, with the cost of war, Ukrainian immigrants and the loss of cheap Russian gas.
Putin's got 3 and a half percent growth, while the rest are in recession.
And the regular people are the ones who have to pay for all of it.

"Putin is feeling the impacts of his war in Ukraine. Sanctions and export controls are damaging Russia’s economy and limiting its access to the financing and material goods needed to wage its illegitimate war of choice."

Financing?
- They're selling crude to India at $84 a barrel - $24 above market cap.
Sanctions didn't work.
Trying to stop trade with Russia didn't work either. BRICS
They don't actually need chips from washing machines for their missiles it's all lies you've be told.

"While Russia has the resources to maintain its war in the short term, its leaders face increasingly painful tradeoffs that will sacrifice long-term prospects — as underinvestment, slow productivity growth, and labour shortages will only deepen."
The sanctions helped the underinvestment issue and oligarchs issue.
Targeting individuals, the West stealing billion dollar Russian yachts and English football clubs earned the oligarchs the 'Serve yourself right', and 'You should invest here in Russia where your wealth is safer' spiel from Putin.
Let's not forget the West also GAVE Russia all it's Western businesses back.
Companies like McDonalds just up and left.
Russia stepped in, took the assets, makes a big mac just as good but call it something else, and pays the West nothing.

There's labour shortages, but Russia will incentivise employment to migrants which will add to growth.

"who will face a long-term decline in living standards."
Probably not, maybe just a slower long-term improvement in living standards.

"Russia’s policy responses to our sanctions are growing increasingly expensive for Russia.
The United States and our partners have taken innovative measures to spare the global economy from unnecessary damage from Russia’s war."

Your article's a total load of bullcrap.
Russia keeps revising it's numbers upwards, so it's not true, your Chief Sanctions Economist for the Fed is lying, 12 sanction packages aren't working.
Russia is a commodity producer, the world needs what it has.
The West has sanctioned itself, harmed itself.
'Unnecessary damage'
ffs, they blew up Nordstream, and expanded their own US markets selling gas to Europe at 4 times the price
Europeans precious car industry, steel makers etc its all finished
Can't compete with China now, too cheap and too good quality.
The garden will again become the jungle.

The west has not succeeded in achieving anything.
Cost of living is not cheaper and the world is not a safer place.
The West has completely cocked things up this time.

Obsessed with expanding NATO, removing Putin, and ring-fencing China.
The US has completely failed and is plans, and is becoming a crumbling decaying 3rd world shitehole itself full of homeless people and dying drug addicts, and a toothless tiger military that wouldn't have a chance in hell of taking out Iran, let alone Russia or China, or Russia and China together.

The US will be lucky if it can continue selling bonds to pay it's debts for much longer.
There's been a huge decrease in the global use of the US dollar for trade.

Baldrick,

Now you are just lying.

http://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

"The price of Russia’s flagship Urals crude fell to $56 per barrel in December, the lowest since late June, and is now below the G7-imposed cap of $60 per barrel for the time since July. It reflects a plunge in international oil benchmarks amid concerns about an excess supply, slowing demand, especially from China and uncertainty surrounding the ability of OPEC+'s output cuts to stabilize the market. Russia extended its voluntary crude oil export reduction of 300,000 barrels per day through March 2024 and introduced an additional 200,000 barrel-per-day cut in fuel exports. While these measures reduce Russian oil in international markets, they coincide with recent laws encouraging domestic fuel sales, responding to capacity challenges faced by Russian refiners."

Russia is selling less oil at a lower price and only about 20% of the gas it used to sell.

Russia's men and materiel are being destroyed at a record rate, and EU aid has grown exponentially. US aid will come.

I can't remember which article or video I saw that said India had been paying $84, but I see the oilprice is $72 for WTI and as you say for Urals, though I'm not sure that some customers are paying the rate listed for Russian oil.

In any case...

The sinking feeling will be all yours soon...

But as for this thread,

I think its finally sunk, like the Moskva.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/india-bought-russian-oil-at-84-2/bbl-in-october-highest-since-december/articleshow/105935792.cms

Ner ner

Baldrick,

There was a spike in oil prices in October. However, the US and EU are now starting to punish and impose heavy fines on ships and shipping companies that break the price cap.

This will give you some financial background.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=craSROxu-tc&ab_channel=JoeBlogs