AC,

I do listen, the difference is that my BS filter is working.

For example, The figures the Ukrainians give are 140 000 Russians killed and about 200 000 wounded which is twice what the US estimates using Satellite imaging etc so they are certainly more accurate than the BS you cite from Russian propaganda.

The sources you cite seem to be wrong 100% of the time. The mobilised forces are 90% civilians with zero military training or experience with many over 40yrs old, given ancient weapons and no protection. They are forced to fight with soldiers set behind them to shoot them if they try to retreat.

The Ukrainians are more than holding their own with the Russian human waves losing up to 1000 Russians killed every day. On top of that these attacks expose Russian tanks to ATGMs and mines.
Russia has thrown everything into this attack and risks losing everything.
As for the Russian superweapons, the SU57 is a joke and is less stealthy than the decades-old F117 and only 10 prototypes that are not battle ready. The Amata tank is in a similar state and often requires to be towed. The Kinsel missile is a plane-mounted ballistic missile that is lucky if it hits the right postcode.

As far as hypersonic missiles the reason the US fell behind was that they were banned by the arms treaty that only the US adhered to. Considering that the US was flying a hypersonic aircraft in the 60s they will catch up and overtake quickly.

Already they have successfully tested their first missile. But what Russia and China should be wary of is the latest upgrade to the decades-old Harpoon missile (that sunk the Moskva) which is a supersonic stealth missile.

Things aren't looking too good for the Ukrainians in Bakhmut right now.

Bigger & more aggressive pincer developing around Bakhmut City
http://youtu.be/r3Uy-kHH4Pk

I told you a few days ago their defensive lines were about to break.
http://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1623289053612310528

Vladimir Putin is about to make shock gains
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/07/vladimir-putin-make-shock-gains/

If you want to get around the paywall, you'll have to right-click and 'inspect the elements' on the page, find the 'settings' and 'disable javascript'.
(Many thanks to whichever OLO forum poster showed me that some months back)

The huge Russian offensive. Russia prepares 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 400 jets, troops.
http://youtu.be/TjsC5lqM1AI

AC,

This looks like Russia's last hurrah.

From statistics published in Russia:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/russias-jan-budget-deficit-widens-energy-revenues-slump-2023-02-06/

Russia's budget deficit soars to around $25 bln in Jan
Energy revenues are down 46.5%, total revenues slump 35.1%
Spending jumped almost 60% in Jan year-on-year

"Citing preliminary data, Russia's finance ministry said on Monday oil and gas revenues were 46.4% lower at 426 billion roubles in January than in the same month last year, which it put down primarily to lower prices for Russia's Urals blend and lower volumes of natural gas exports."

The battles in Bakhmut and Vukledar are seeing massive human waves of mobilized cannon fodder being massacred, Russian tanks and armoured vehicles being destroyed in minefields and by dug-in Ukrainian tanks.

This is the battle of the bulge version 2

Russia is dying

Hi shadowminister,
Yes I know about the January deficit.
And I also know about the losses at Vuledar.

As for the January deficit, that's just a one month issue and may not be indicative of the full years economic situation, as I understand there were extra costs relating to the war effort and upcoming offensive.
Russia has 600bln in foreign reserves.

They've now made some progress of Vuledars western flank.
It was known in advance that taking the place was going to be costly but I think there some kind of military debacle that 31 tanks and IFV's were lost.
Overall, Ukraine's not really in a good situation right now.

AC,

In January, the oil and gas revenues dropped by 46% compared to Jan 22. With the ban on refined products starting from Feb 5, things are only going to get worse, and with secondary sanctions starting soon, no one is going to want to trade with Russia.

Secondly, $300bn of Russia's $600bn was frozen in the west. Russia has about $140bn left available which at the present rate will run out in July.

The Ukrainians have been preparing for this assault for months and the Russians are attaching well-prepared fortification replete with anti-aircraft missiles and artillery.

1000s of Russians running through prepared killing fields replete with mines is not good for Russia who are losing more than 1000 soldiers killed a day with plenty of burning tanks and armour.

I believe that Russia is now begging 3rd parties to start negotiations.