AC,

If the tankers are buying Russian Urals oil at $50/barrel which idiot is going to buy Russian oil at a higher price on purpose? That he could also face a ban from the black sea he would have to be a moron.

As for the Siemens turbine, any country can build one it is just that Siemens make the most cost-effective and efficient ones available today. Also this turbine is used for pipeline gas not LNG.

There is only one pipeline to China which took 10 years to build. It provides China with about 10% of what the EU was taking and is not supplying much more than before the war. Another pipeline is not due this decade.

Elon Musk is not paying $80m per month, it is closer to $20m. Also, he has not cut Starlink but is threatening to try and get payment from the US government.

Please don't link to Alexander Mercouris as he is an idiot with no clue what is happening on the ground. The US has just shipped in about 100 000 155mm shells and still has plenty of stockpiles.

Russia has a tiny window before the spring rains and mud and so far, they have made extraordinarily little progress with massive losses. Another battalion of tanks was destroyed at Vuhledar yesterday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nktftZgs1-I&ab_channel=TheMilitaryShow

"That he could also face a ban from the black sea he would have to be a moron."

I'm not sure what you mean, but no-ones going to ban Russia from the Black Sea, that's ridiculous, and also called WWIII

As for the oil, don't shoot the messenger.
Occasionally I get things out of context, but that's what it says.

Looks like I also got the Elon Musk thing wrong too, apparently up until Oct last year it cost him 80 million in total.
- But they certainly have stated that they've curbed the use of Starlink for Ukrainian drones.
http://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-curbed-ukraines-use-starlink-internet-drones-company-president-2023-02-09/

"Please don't link to Alexander Mercouris as he is an idiot with no clue what is happening on the ground."

Yeah ok fair enough, but as for what's happening on the ground I get my info from numerous different sources, many of which do originate from people fighting on the ground.
Several other youtube channels and twitter sources mostly.
The story about shortage of 155mm he stated was European news stating it if I recall correctly.
I do wish he'd add links in the video description to the articles he discusses, that way I wouldn't have to go digging.

"The US has just shipped in about 100 000 155mm shells and still has plenty of stockpiles."
How long will that last?
Maybe a few weeks at best?
And are they willing to continue to drawdown more from their own stockpile or instead issue new contracts?

"Russia has a tiny window before the spring rains and mud and so far, they have made extraordinarily little progress with massive losses. Another battalion of tanks was destroyed at Vuhledar yesterday."

Time is on their side, various articles have stated it even the RAND corporation released a report in January stating 'The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States'.
- But yes there is a current window while the ground is frozen.

Even I told you there was heavy losses in Vuhledar, that said there were later reports claiming many of the claimed tanks and IFVs actually made it to safety and it wasn't as bad as first reported.
http://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1623826157224222722

If the video was made 8 months ago it may seem more realistic, but a lot of things have changed since then.
It feels like he's clutching onto old narratives, good old washing machines saving the day... [rolls eyes]
Wheres the ghost of Kiev when you need him?

Those Leopard I Ukraine is getting are the equivalent of T-64's, and the channel makes fun of old 1960's hardware but that's exactly what Ukraine is using, the M113's are from 1961, U.S is sending them all its old junk.

According to Ukrainian sources Russia has 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armoured vehicles, 810 Soviet-era multiple-rocket-launch systems, 400 fighter jets, 300 helicopters and 2700 artillery systems ready for their coming offensive

- It's a Ukrainian source so they might be overstating to get western partners to move quickly and do more, but who knows.
But Russia's already making 20+ new T90M per month and revamping 70+ T-72B3M per month (featuring advanced fire control system and thermal sights) and is quickly increasing their production.
- Probably why they had a budget deficit in January getting old soviet production lines up and running again.

Also they've moved away from BTG's and gone back to old style large scale warfare - divisions and regiments etc I think.

Ukraine is going to cop it hard for at least the next few months, maybe they will manage to put something together in time, but the battlefield map will likely be a lot different by the time they do.

AC,

To address your posts:

Any ship that breaks the cap will its insurance and Turkey will not allow it into the black sea or any EU or US ports. Quite a disincentive.

As for 155mm howitzer shells, these are used and manufactured in 30 Nato countries and even more allied countries. The bottleneck in supply to Ukraine is logistics, not availability. The US stockpiles could supply Ukraine for years.

The t72 is a 50yr old design of a similar vintage to the leopard 1 (L1) of which Ukraine is getting about 200. The L1 is fast and manoeuvrable and has a 105mm high-velocity gun that will easily destroy a T72. The tanks Ukraine is getting have updated fire control and thermal imaging etc and can do a lot of damage. The L2 essentially has very heavy armour that can take a hit from a T72 and shrug it off.

As for Russia's manufacturing capacity, the 20 T90s a month is a drop in the ocean of what they need to replace the destroyed tanks, and the 70 T72s and T62s that are being refurbished are still not enough.

While the ground is still frozen in the north, in the south the ground is defrosting. The ground in the North is not expected to remain frozen for much more than a week or two.

While Russia has the equipment you mention, the tanks, AFVs etc are about half of what Russia started the war with, and storming Ukrainian positions bristling with javelins, NLAWS etc and virtually up-to-the-minute information from US satellites, the Russian losses in tanks etc are going to become epic.

While it is going to be tough for the Ukrainians, Russia is going to be bled dry.