Hi shadowminister,

Fingers-crossed that you're right.

Putin would like nothing more than to have a
ceasefire in Ukraine. to allow his armed forces to regroup,
rest, re-arm and be able to bring in the recently conscripted
reinforcements so that he then can start the war again.

He seems determined to restore what he sees as a Russian
empire.

The Russian army is still formidable and a great threat to Ukraine. The conflict is being fought over a very large front and I would not assume that the Russian army will stay stupid. Russia also has a dangerous amount of precision munitions. Ukraine has some crucial advantages which seem to be destroying the Russian war machine, but they do not yet have the equipment advantage to drive the Russians out. Patience in targeting supply routes, troop and equipment concentrations will bring opportunities, especially if Russia tries to maintain the front with a diminishing arsenal.

Stories of Russia's demise are largely wishful thinking and beyond the ken of anyone here. Our interest lies with its ally, China. In the meantime, it is still Ukraine that is being destroyed - not Russia.

It appears that Russia is having trouble fighting a restricted war, in the same way the US had in Vietnam. The US had no trouble in a full scale war in Iran. The same is quite possible for Russia.

Currently it appears they are simply rather nastily punishing the Ukraine for not welcoming them.

Putin only started with 190K, he sent 40K to Kiev
If you assumed that both sides are at a stalemate right now, and cant send troops from their current positions without spreading themselves too thin, what do you think is going to happen when Putin sends 150K more in to cut off the Ukrainian troops fighting in the east?
If Poland sends troops into Western Ukraine, Lukashenko will too.

Hi AC,

"Putin only started with 190K"

Yes, he sent in nearly all his BTGs and has had 110k killed, probably twice that number wounded, lost over half his war machines and greatly depleted his ammunition. He can't use his tanks to attack because they get blown up by atgms. He can make ground if he concentrates his artillery and uses human waves, but that creates logistical problems, costs thousands of lives, gains little ground and leaves other parts of the front line more vulnerable. By the way, the Russian army is very hierarchical. What is left of the regular military send the fresh conscripts to get killed while they stay relatively safe.

With Ukraine getting longer range capability it is already targeting the drone and missile attacks at their sources. That adds to the problems the Himars are creating for the Russians to supply the front line.

At the rate Putin is putting his citizens through the meat grinder, 150,000 should be enough to hold up the front line for another three months. I heard that in eastern Russia the conscripts are being told that they are going to fight the Poles. Poor sods!