AC,

Either you are incredibly naive or wilfully ignorant. No one in their right mind would believe that the original invasion force consisted of only 40 000 Russian soldiers. Between the attack coming from the north to Kyiv and from the East, Russia had committed 100% of its contract army.

There are no spare 150 000 skilled Russian soldiers lying around waiting. Also, Belorussia's army is only 15 000 most of whom clearly don't want to join Russia's illegal invasion, especially considering that Russia has already taken most of their tanks, armoured vehicles, and air defences.

Russia's in the process of capturing Soledar,
At least 3 attacks at Kreminna were defended.
shadowminister not all Russian troops from the mobilisation have completed updating their training yet.

AC,

5 months ago, when Russia started storming Bakhmut Russia still occupied most of the Kharkiv oblast, all of Luhansk, and most of Kherson.

Today Russia has been routed out of these areas. Of particular importance, Ukraine took the logistical centres of Izyum in September, and Lyman in October and now recently after capturing Dibrova has the heavily fortified rail and road hub of Kermina under siege from 3 sides.

If Russia loses Kreminna, they lose their main supply line to the fighting in Bakhmut and Severo Donetsk etc and the entire Luhansk region becomes vulnerable. On Russia's side they have captured the centre of Soledar, which if Kreminna falls is useless.

In the interim, the US, France and Germany are sending Ukraine armoured fighting vehicles that can take out tanks and more Patriot batteries and anti-tank missiles.

With the huge Ukrainian focus on destroying tanks and APVs it is starting to look as though the Ukrainian army is more mechanised than the Russian army.

Soledar Has Fallen
http://youtu.be/MAlqRyuzHyc

Bakhmut may become encircled so Ukraine may withdraw.
Russia might then attack Siversk and try to retake Lyman.

AC,

Firstly, there is still heavy fighting going on in Soledar.

Secondly, even if Soledar falls, there is a long way to go before Bakhmut is surrounded.

Thirdly, Siversk and Lyman are a long long way from being threatened by Russia.

Fourthly, Dibrova, Chernopopivka and Pischane surrounding Kreminna have been taken by Ukraine in the last week leaving virtually no barriers to Ukraine de occupying Kreminna.

Finally, the fields around Soledar are carpeted with the bodies of dead Russians and the Russians are losing nearly 1000 soldiers a day. I would guess that most of these are from the 40 000 Russian prisoners press ganged in the Wagner group. Even so, there is a limit to the number of dead fathers, and sons that Putin can kill before he faces a backlash from the Russian people.

Russian forces have not yet fully captured Soledar despite recent Russian advances, and the possible capture of Soledar is unlikely to enable Russian forces to capture Bakhmut. ISW assesses that Russian forces have not yet captured Soledar, despite numerous claims from Russian sources.[17] Russian claims about Russian advances in Soledar continue to generate discussion amongst Russian sources about the likelihood of Russian forces capturing Bakhmut.[18] Some Russian sources have begun discussing an implausible collapse of the current Ukrainian frontline and a Ukrainian retreat as far back as Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.[19] The Russian discussion about the imminent capture of Bakhmut and the collapse of Ukrainian defensive lines are divorced from the current operational reality in the Bakhmut area, where Russian forces remain far from severing Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) needed to encircle Bakhmut.[20] Russian offensive operations to capture Bakhmut have likely culminated due to degraded operational capabilities.[21]