"In January, the oil and gas revenues dropped by 46% compared to Jan 22."

I'm not sure this is the full picture, as Russian intermediary companies are charging a lot more than the current Urals spot price and because Russia has found ways around the sanctions the true economic situation may not be actually well understood.
- Some of it is kind of off-the books in a black hole I think, and then at the same time I think the gas component of their current revenue is significant.
- As well as this you must take into account the Chinese economy is only just starting up again, and there will likely be increased volumes ahead not decreased volumes.

"1000s of Russians running through prepared killing fields replete with mines is not good for Russia who are losing more than 1000 soldiers killed a day with plenty of burning tanks and armour."
- I don't think it's reasonable to suggest that Russia has some 350K dead, (at 1000 per day) I think it's extremely fanciful, and Putin would be facing a lot of pressure at home if this was the case.
If you were to add in X 3 for casualties, (standard calculation) then what you're suggesting is that Russia has conservatively taken 1 million in both KIA and wounded.

Did you see the leaked Mossad report from Turkey recently?
I may not have mentioned it because it can't really be verified, but those numbers are staggering on the Ukrainian side, something like 160K dead Ukrainians and 20K Russians, with claims Russia has destroyed 50+ % of all Ukrainian forces.
- And if they really are dragging teenagers and old men off the street to send on a suicide mission to Bakhmut to buy time so they can create a new line of defense, then it's not at all a good situation for them.

This discussion of chemical weapons use by Ukraine has been starting to do the rounds.
http://www.youtube.com/live/ziK3d5q2uDU?feature=share&t=2320

AC,

Firstly, the figures quoted were from official Russian documents. Secondly, no one is going to sneak around Western sanctions to pay more for oil. Thirdly, the EU was about 80% of Russia's gas market and took the gas via pipeline. Russia does not have the means to liquefy enough gas to make up for the loss of the EU market.

Fourthly, Bogus "leaked documents" are one of the most common scams, and the figures you quote are wildly ridiculous and demonstrate your naivety.

Russia's new offensive has had an awfully slow start gaining tiny amounts of land for huge losses in men and equipment most of which they cannot replace, whereas Ukraine is getting nearly 600 tanks now and a nearly equal number of other armoured vehicles along with $bns in other heavy weapons.

Ukraine now has a standing army of 700 000 with 2000 000 volunteers waiting in the wings, with NATO training and equipping about another 30 000 per month. This is not a war that Russia can win. The people being forcibly conscripted is probably in Russia.

Hi shadowminister,
"Firstly, the figures quoted were from official Russian documents. Secondly, no one is going to sneak around Western sanctions to pay more for oil."

I read it an an article a few days back, it would take me time to find the article.

"Thirdly, the EU was about 80% of Russia's gas market and took the gas via pipeline. Russia does not have the means to liquefy enough gas to make up for the loss of the EU market."

They don't need the Seimans turbines, they've developed their own
http://www.power-technology.com/news/russia-power-machines-turbine/
As well as this they've expanded and opened new gas fields in the far east, inc. new pipelines to China and new LNG tankers.

"Russia's new offensive has had an awfully slow start gaining tiny amounts of land for huge losses in men and equipment most of which they cannot replace, whereas Ukraine is getting nearly 600 tanks now and a nearly equal number of other armoured vehicles along with $bns in other heavy weapons."

It hasn't even begun yet, I think they want to break the Zelensky line which has been somewhat achieved; and to bed down their gains in Bakhmut first, which is now under operational encirclement with thousands of troops who can't get out without coming under Russian fire.
http://youtu.be/Tk-1ZsBxBic

Polish Lt. Colonel's Take on Upcoming Russian Major Offensive
http://youtu.be/DW86zSr-E1k

"Ukraine now has a standing army of 700 000 with 2000 000 volunteers waiting in the wings, with NATO training and equipping about another 30 000 per month. This is not a war that Russia can win."

The situation on the ground says otherwise, if that were true they wouldn't be begging for tanks, planes, IFV's, ammunition and resorting to chemical weapons;
- But if you say so there's no point in me trying to argue otherwise, we'll find out soon enough.

"The people being forcibly conscripted is probably in Russia." 'probably'?
http://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1624130857454735366
Russia has many reservists with prior military experience and no need to grab kids off the street.

Taking out bridges
http://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status/1624148504666050560

Significant missile and drone strikes overnight.
http://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1624144584644169751

Meanwhile...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/09/olaf-scholz-furious-minister-went-behind-back-ukraine-tanks/

[Cont]
Also, keep in mind that video I showed you from yesterday from the 'Redacted' youtube channel.

The discussion and videos associated with Ukraine using chemical weapons also coincided with Elon Musk making an announcement about Starlink.
- He was expected to foot an 80 million dollar bill per month, he tried to work towards a peace agreement that Ukraine was not interested in and had become complicit in war crimes in relation to chemical weapons attacks.

He's now cut Starlink support for Ukrainian drones.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/09/zelenskiy-aide-takes-aim-at-curbs-on-ukraine-use-of-starlink-to-pilot-drones-elon-musk

"Shotwell said Starlink was 'never, never meant to be weaponised' by Ukraine, although it cannot come as a surprise to the company as Kyiv’s military has been using it to pilot drones for months. 'Ukrainians have leveraged it in ways that were unintentional and not part of any agreement,' she added."

Here's the Sy Herch article about the Nord Stream pipline attacks
http://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream

Here's an article about Ukraine relying on US for it's HIMARS targetting:

Ukraine’s rocket campaign reliant on U.S. precision targeting, officials say
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/09/ukraine-himars-rocket-artillery-russia/

Here's the oil discussion article I meantioned earlier I had to look for:
http://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/business/russia-oil-embargo.html

>>Some oil experts say, however, that the steep discounts for Russian oil could partly be an illusion.

Using customs data from India, Mr. Vakulenko, the Russian oil expert, showed that local importers of Russian crude paid almost the same price as Brent crude. A New York Times analysis of the same data produced similar results.

The explanation, Mr. Vakulenko suggested, is that at least part of the large discount on the quoted Urals price had been pocketed by Russian exporters and intermediaries, who then charged a higher price to the buyers in India.

This revenue will not accrue directly to the Russian government in taxes, said Tatiana Mitrova, a Russian oil expert at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. But because the Russian exporters probably have close ties to the Kremlin, some of money might still support the war effort, she said.

“It’s a complete black box of funds,” she said.

Experts agree that in the longer term, the future of Russian oil revenues will be decided by global economic forces beyond the control of Western sanctions enforcers and Russian evaders.

They say global oil prices will remain the single biggest determinant of how much money the Kremlin will collect from a barrel of exported crude, despite the growing opacity of its trade.

And the fate of that price rests to a large extent on Russia’s ally China, whose economy is just beginning to emerge from years of strict Covid restrictions. In December, China’s imports of crude oil hit a record of 16.3 million barrels a day, according to estimates by Kpler, a firm that tracks energy shipping. If the trend continues, it will strain global oil supplies and benefit the Kremlin.<<

US and European arms suppliers cant keep up with 155mm ammunition
http://youtu.be/Tk-1ZsBxBic?t=2640