With the crippling sanctions and a string of defeats in Ukraine, the sun finally seems to be going down on Russia’s once-vast empire.

"Evidence of Russia’s declining influence can be seen throughout the post-Soviet world. On the frontlines in Ukraine, Putin’s invasion force is suffering from increasingly obvious manpower shortages that make a mockery of attempts to portray Russia as the world’s number two military power. Moscow has been forced to withdraw troops from deployments across the former USSR while also recruiting soldiers from among the Russian prison population.

Russian military withdrawals from Central Asia have led to renewed border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The changing dynamic in the region was also on display with the President of Kyrgyzstan keeping Putin waiting prior to their bilateral meeting. Putin was once notorious for making world leaders wait, but the shoe is now on the other foot.

Russia’s retreat is nowhere more immediate or obvious than in Ukraine. Putin’s brutal invasion was supposed to derail Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration and force the country firmly back into the Kremlin orbit. Instead, it has turned Ukrainian public opinion decisively against Russia while also uniting Ukrainians. Polls now consistently indicate similar attitudes throughout both western and eastern Ukraine toward Russia, national identity, language, and foreign policy. Rather than destroying the Ukrainian nation, Russian aggression has dramatically accelerated the country’s nation-building progress.

Throughout the former USSR, Russia’s only remaining loyal allies are Belarus and Armenia. The Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union no longer appear to be functioning in any meaningful sense.

Ukraine and Moldova are now firmly within the EU sphere of influence. Azerbaijan has cemented a strategic alliance with Turkey and is a rising economic and military power whose energy resources will become increasingly important to the EU as Europe seeks to end its dependency on Russia. Georgia’s unnatural pro-Russian stance is crumbling. Meanwhile, China has replaced Russia as the preeminent power in Central Asia. Russia’s humiliating military setbacks in Ukraine and economic isolation from the Western world have confirmed its status as China’s junior partner."

Hi shadowminister,

The last days of the Russian Empire?

It certainly looks like it. Three decades after
the collapse of the Soviet empire Russians are
again being dragged back in time to where Soviet
citizens lived isolated from the rest of the world.
Where they lived in a bubble of failed ideology and
misinformation spoon-fed to them by the regime.

That system fell apart under just the kind of
autocracy that Putin is trying to restore. He's
not succeeding. He's failing Russia and his people.
He's erasing the gains of the post-communist period
in an attempted power-grab to rebuild a doomed empire.

His attempts have badly damaged Russia's military,
and tarnished its reputation, disrupted the economy,
and profoundly altered its power and standing in the
world. The war has been a tragedy for Ukraine and
the Ukrainians however it's also been a disaster for
Russis.

One big quotation. But, who is being quoted?

http://atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-russian-empire-is-collapsing-like-its-soviet-predecessor/

I think this is what shadowminister quoted from.

Worth a read.

Foxy got it in one.

Simply highlight a section of the quote right click and select google search and this usually gives you the article quoted.

There are also several other articles on this topic.

One of the major points of tension is that Putin's press gangs have focused on the remote areas so much so that there are villages denuded of men between 18 and 50 so that he does not piss off his political base in Moscow and St Petersburg i.e. ethnic Russians.

These far-flung ethnic regions are largely self-governing and are already grumbling at losing so many able-bodied men. If Putin's Junta collapses, then these regions might try and split off from Russia and the defeated army will be in no position to stop them.

You should watch this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ge2YZ8YSNjU&ab_channel=SkyNews

The opinion is that the Russians have culminated. They are running out of ammunition, artillery, men, tanks and any needed to continue the war.

This looks like it might well be the turning point.

Hi shadowminister,

Fingers-crossed that you're right.

Putin would like nothing more than to have a
ceasefire in Ukraine. to allow his armed forces to regroup,
rest, re-arm and be able to bring in the recently conscripted
reinforcements so that he then can start the war again.

He seems determined to restore what he sees as a Russian
empire.

The Russian army is still formidable and a great threat to Ukraine. The conflict is being fought over a very large front and I would not assume that the Russian army will stay stupid. Russia also has a dangerous amount of precision munitions. Ukraine has some crucial advantages which seem to be destroying the Russian war machine, but they do not yet have the equipment advantage to drive the Russians out. Patience in targeting supply routes, troop and equipment concentrations will bring opportunities, especially if Russia tries to maintain the front with a diminishing arsenal.

Stories of Russia's demise are largely wishful thinking and beyond the ken of anyone here. Our interest lies with its ally, China. In the meantime, it is still Ukraine that is being destroyed - not Russia.

It appears that Russia is having trouble fighting a restricted war, in the same way the US had in Vietnam. The US had no trouble in a full scale war in Iran. The same is quite possible for Russia.

Currently it appears they are simply rather nastily punishing the Ukraine for not welcoming them.

Putin only started with 190K, he sent 40K to Kiev
If you assumed that both sides are at a stalemate right now, and cant send troops from their current positions without spreading themselves too thin, what do you think is going to happen when Putin sends 150K more in to cut off the Ukrainian troops fighting in the east?
If Poland sends troops into Western Ukraine, Lukashenko will too.

Hi AC,

"Putin only started with 190K"

Yes, he sent in nearly all his BTGs and has had 110k killed, probably twice that number wounded, lost over half his war machines and greatly depleted his ammunition. He can't use his tanks to attack because they get blown up by atgms. He can make ground if he concentrates his artillery and uses human waves, but that creates logistical problems, costs thousands of lives, gains little ground and leaves other parts of the front line more vulnerable. By the way, the Russian army is very hierarchical. What is left of the regular military send the fresh conscripts to get killed while they stay relatively safe.

With Ukraine getting longer range capability it is already targeting the drone and missile attacks at their sources. That adds to the problems the Himars are creating for the Russians to supply the front line.

At the rate Putin is putting his citizens through the meat grinder, 150,000 should be enough to hold up the front line for another three months. I heard that in eastern Russia the conscripts are being told that they are going to fight the Poles. Poor sods!

AC,

Either you are incredibly naive or wilfully ignorant. No one in their right mind would believe that the original invasion force consisted of only 40 000 Russian soldiers. Between the attack coming from the north to Kyiv and from the East, Russia had committed 100% of its contract army.

There are no spare 150 000 skilled Russian soldiers lying around waiting. Also, Belorussia's army is only 15 000 most of whom clearly don't want to join Russia's illegal invasion, especially considering that Russia has already taken most of their tanks, armoured vehicles, and air defences.

Russia's in the process of capturing Soledar,
At least 3 attacks at Kreminna were defended.
shadowminister not all Russian troops from the mobilisation have completed updating their training yet.

AC,

5 months ago, when Russia started storming Bakhmut Russia still occupied most of the Kharkiv oblast, all of Luhansk, and most of Kherson.

Today Russia has been routed out of these areas. Of particular importance, Ukraine took the logistical centres of Izyum in September, and Lyman in October and now recently after capturing Dibrova has the heavily fortified rail and road hub of Kermina under siege from 3 sides.

If Russia loses Kreminna, they lose their main supply line to the fighting in Bakhmut and Severo Donetsk etc and the entire Luhansk region becomes vulnerable. On Russia's side they have captured the centre of Soledar, which if Kreminna falls is useless.

In the interim, the US, France and Germany are sending Ukraine armoured fighting vehicles that can take out tanks and more Patriot batteries and anti-tank missiles.

With the huge Ukrainian focus on destroying tanks and APVs it is starting to look as though the Ukrainian army is more mechanised than the Russian army.

Soledar Has Fallen
http://youtu.be/MAlqRyuzHyc

Bakhmut may become encircled so Ukraine may withdraw.
Russia might then attack Siversk and try to retake Lyman.

AC,

Firstly, there is still heavy fighting going on in Soledar.

Secondly, even if Soledar falls, there is a long way to go before Bakhmut is surrounded.

Thirdly, Siversk and Lyman are a long long way from being threatened by Russia.

Fourthly, Dibrova, Chernopopivka and Pischane surrounding Kreminna have been taken by Ukraine in the last week leaving virtually no barriers to Ukraine de occupying Kreminna.

Finally, the fields around Soledar are carpeted with the bodies of dead Russians and the Russians are losing nearly 1000 soldiers a day. I would guess that most of these are from the 40 000 Russian prisoners press ganged in the Wagner group. Even so, there is a limit to the number of dead fathers, and sons that Putin can kill before he faces a backlash from the Russian people.

Russian forces have not yet fully captured Soledar despite recent Russian advances, and the possible capture of Soledar is unlikely to enable Russian forces to capture Bakhmut. ISW assesses that Russian forces have not yet captured Soledar, despite numerous claims from Russian sources.[17] Russian claims about Russian advances in Soledar continue to generate discussion amongst Russian sources about the likelihood of Russian forces capturing Bakhmut.[18] Some Russian sources have begun discussing an implausible collapse of the current Ukrainian frontline and a Ukrainian retreat as far back as Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.[19] The Russian discussion about the imminent capture of Bakhmut and the collapse of Ukrainian defensive lines are divorced from the current operational reality in the Bakhmut area, where Russian forces remain far from severing Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) needed to encircle Bakhmut.[20] Russian offensive operations to capture Bakhmut have likely culminated due to degraded operational capabilities.[21]

The Russian defense industrial base’s inability to address munitions shortages will likely hinder the ability of Russian forces to sustain offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023. US and Ukrainian officials told CNN on January 10 that Russia’s daily rate of artillery fire has decreased in some areas by 75%, a historic low since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022.[13] These officials noted that Russian forces may be rationing artillery shells as a result of dwindling supplies, or could be reassessing their tactics. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian forces previously depleted their reserves of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells and other reserves over the summer of 2022 under an assumption that excessive artillery fire would lead to faster results.[14] Cherevaty noted that Russian forces must now transfer additional shells from rear areas in Russia and purchase additional munitions from foreign countries to counteract such shortages, resulting in a reduced rate of fire. Cherevaty added that Ukrainian strikes against Russian ammunition depots and logistics have also inhibited Russia’s ability to unload munitions close to the frontlines, reducing the intensity of Russia’s artillery fire.[15]

Russian sources are increasingly also acknowledging that Russia’s ammunition and supply shortages are decisively impeding the ability of Russian forces to advance. A prominent Russian milblogger (and member of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mobilization working group) stated on a federal TV program that Russian force generation efforts such as mobilization are not sufficient, noting that Russia’s success on the frontlines is contingent upon its economy and military-industrial complex.[16] ISW had previously assessed that the Kremlin’s force generation campaigns are unlikely to decisively affect the course of the war unless Russia addresses its fundamental problems with supplying its war effort in Ukraine. Russian forces achieved some victories in the first stages of the invasion due to Russia’s rapid use of its manpower and reliance on artillery superiority, and the Kremlin’s inability to replace expended personnel and munitions may further undermine its ability to wage protracted combat.

Looks like Klishchiivka has been captured or is close to it.
Russians may soon have fire control over all the roads into Bakhmut giving them an operational encirclement.
- Ukrainians will have to withdraw or stay and risk capture, maybe a week maybe two at most I'd guess.
Siversk, Lyman, Izyum coming.

Kreminna's not likely to happen, AFU sent many troops south to reinforce Soledar a week ago.

'The last days of the Russian Empire' Lol
- It's a slippery slope that one SM...
Almost sounds like you're just begging for someone to get nuked.

AC,

Satellite photos show that about 5000 Russians were killed with an estimated 10 000 severely wounded to take Solidar. This is a huge price to pay for a village that used to hold 10 000 people. As for breaking out to Lyman etc Russia is a long long way from being able to do this. Meanwhile, Ukraine has taken Dibrova and Kusmyne to the east of Kreminna and the army is now on the outskirts of Kremina.

While NATO is shipping hundreds of potent armoured vehicles (and now tanks) to Ukraine, Russia is losing them way faster than it can replace them.

With the oil cap and EU ban, Russia is now selling less oil at a far lower price than it did last year (about $50/barrel), and after running a huge deficit in 2022 the financial outlook for Russia in 2023 is looking dire. Russia's war chest is emptying faster and faster.

AC,

If you want to get some idea of what's happening to Russia's economy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKi6QMGI2N8&t=1303s

Now the idiots in Canberra are sending Australian soldiers off to train Ukraine's, and put us further offside with Russia, a country that is no threat to Australia, but which could become one if we keep pandering to the most corrupt country in Europe that means absolutely nothing to us. Any country that would prefer to be destroyed than come to some arrangement to prevent what is happening is not worth saving. No country from that part of the world could, or would even want to, come to our aid if the same thing was happening to Australia.

Instead of giving aid and equipment that we can't afford to give, we should be looking to our own problems with China and the tinpot blackmailers in our own region,

During WW2, when we had a population of less than 8 million, we had 10 army divisions. Now we have 2! And playground-type equipment, some of which we are giving away to bloody Ukraine.

Here we go again:

The USSR was a blood-stained regime
In which millions were murdered as a daily routine
Might is Right was their slogan of choice
Dissenting cries were not given a voice

History has written of the many disposed
The frozen infernos have now been exposed
Putin and Stalin are two of a kind
Yet some in the West to this are still blind

Putin like Stalin will take what he wants
He will kill and destroy those who fight in response
The world can't allow this rampage of terror
Not protecting Ukraine would be a huge error

First the Ukraine, then Romania
Followed by Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
Do we want the USSR re-instated
Ruling Eastern Europe unabated?

The world must unite and be fully aware
That this is a battle that we all need to share
Putin must be stopped in his tracks
Otherwise no sovereign nation can truly relax.

Putin doesn't doubt that Russia will win. He refers to the Russian people's solidarity (Ukrainians are running away) and the work of Russia's military-industrial sector. Ukraine has to beg and borrow.

Russia also appears to be preparing for a big winter offensive. Don't place any bets yet.

Actually it's the Russians who are running in droves.
And rightly so. Because Ukrainians - are adamant that:

"The invaders as brothers we won't tolerate
When their bombs, tanks, and missiles try us to negate
Their invasion of our precious land
Is something those people don't understand

That we'll fight them with our very last breath
Even if it means our nation's death
We'd rather die in liberty
Then go down enslaved in history

Parasites like them cannot be allowed to win
Our Ukrainian people will never give in!

Dear Ttbn,

«Instead of giving aid and equipment that we can't afford to give, we should be looking to our own problems with China»

But this is exactly what we are doing - we fight China on the Ukrainian front. Why wait till the front comes closer?

Yuyutsu

I don't buy the West 'fighting a proxy war in Ukraine against the commos' theory.

The Western nations buy it and that's what matters!

Dear Ttbn,

Not a proxy war - a war of example for the West, and a lukewarm test-case for China.

Had the brave Ukrainians failed to stop Russia at the gates of Kiev, or had the West failed to support Ukraine with arms and sanctions, then for sure China would have by now already attacked Taiwan, and should they been successful there, God forbid, then next in line are Japan, then Australia (what's left of 25 million slaves digging this rich continent for free for all China ever needs).

The Ukraine war made China hesitate, think twice and thrice before attacking a free country, it also gave more courage and boosted the morale of the Taiwanese people, which was pretty low following the collapse of Hong Kong.

Y,

The war in Ukraine has some aspects of a proxy war in that no NATO soldiers are actually on the ground fighting mostly because NATO does not want this to escalate to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. However, NATO is gradually escalating the amount and lethality of the weapons it supplies to Ukraine. In addition, US Satellites and surveillance systems also provide up-to-the-minute information on Russian movements and logistics and the ever-tightening sanctions are beginning to strangle Russia's economy and ability to supply its army.

While Putin has been able to hold onto his ill-gotten gains so far the civilised world has gone a long way to ensure that there is a huge cost to Russia in both blood and treasure and as the stream of body bags returning to Russia becomes a torrent, there are indications that the support for the war in Ukraine is beginning to falter.

"Leaked internal Russian government polling recently indicated that as few as one in four Russians may be in favour of the war in Ukraine. Analysts believe that the forced mobilisation of over 300,000 civilians and the high level of casualties have all contributed to waning support for Russia’s war effort.

The polling, which also found that more than half the Russian people hope their government will enter peace talks, was reportedly conducted for the Kremlin’s Federal Guard Service (FSO) and published by the exiled dissident news website Meduza."

Fighting reported on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar.
Operational encirclement of Bakhmut.
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1616404348673880067/photo/1

Zaluzhnyi has apparently advised Zelensky to withdraw from Siversk, but hes refusing to do so.

AC,

If you look at the map, Siversk is miles away from the fighting. I would suggest you look for more reliable sources. Bakhmut has still well-protected supply lines and certainly for now are not operationally encircled.

As for Kreminna, Russia is shelling the west of the city of Kreminna, which either means that either Russians are very bad shots or Ukrainians are already in the city.

"If you look at the map, Siversk is miles away from the fighting. I would suggest you look for more reliable sources."

The info that Zaluzhnyi has apparently advised Zelensky to withdraw from Siversk, is from Ukrainian sources and discussed yesterday here:
Russia Captures Kleshcheyevka, Bakhmut Cauldron Looms, Zaluzhny Warns Siversk, Biden Scholz Quarrel
http://youtu.be/eVTRhDsEMRw

"Bakhmut has still well-protected supply lines and certainly for now are not operationally encircled."
I saw the info on twitter at 2am last night and commented about it here, and sure enough what was todays Alexander Mercouris video about?

Bakhmut Operationally Encircled, Russia Advance Zaporozhye; West Talks Tank Deliveries Ramstein
http://youtu.be/WIjBt4-Bqn4

Currently I know there's been an offensive started by the Russian forces (not Wagner PMG) attacking numerous towns on the Zaporizhzhia front, with the objective of taking Orikhiv - some of these towns have been captured.
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1616503901121052672/photo/1

Russian Forces Capture 2 Villages and Pushes Further Towards Orikhiv
http://youtu.be/IVAaWfMwWKw

From what I understand they're trying to disrupt supply lines that come across the Dnieper headed towards front lines in the east.

Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 20.01.2023
http://youtu.be/IaTDbMcCQgY

US General Mark Milley warns it will be 'very difficult' to eject Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces from war-torn Ukraine in 2023

http://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/us-general-mark-milley-warns-it-will-be-very-difficult-to-eject-russian-president-vladimir-putins-forces-from-wartorn-ukraine-in-2023/news-story/b48c4929e31e593f5cac20ca7fe1feb2

Hang on, I thought Putin was running out of missiles and ammunition?
- Russia's on the verge of collapse, any day now right?
And foolishly sending in human waves to be decimated?
- Surely Ukraine's had some impact with all these fields littered with Russian corpses?

Well not so, according to the current Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff Gen. Mark Milley.

"But United States General Mark Milley has added to concerns the aggression will not end this year, telling reporters it was not realistic Ukraine will win the war.
Gen Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and principal advisor to President Joe Biden and the Secretary of Defense, flagged the leader of the free world and many European leaders believe the only way the conflict will end is through negotiation."

(So why then are Western leaders in a p*ssing contest over tanks if they acknowledge the path to ending the conflict is through negotiations?)

- Basically Milley's saying Ukraine are losing and they're not going to win the war, but the West will keep supporting the war and escalating anyway.
They are prying Europe away from a reliance on Russian energy and selling lots of weapons.
$$$ Ka-ching Ka-ching $$$

Just got to get the Germans to send their Leopards 2's to put an end to that relationship permanently.

Q - Why is Ukraine asking for more tanks, long range weapons and armoured vehicles?
A - Because Russia destroyed all the others already.

Send your tanks, it won't make any difference,
It'll just drag out the war and get more Ukrainians killed
If fighting to the last Ukrainian is what your actual plan is.
- The meat grinder doesn't care.

AC,
Extrapolating from US General Mark Milley's statement that "it will be difficult for Ukraine to expel Russian troops from all of Ukraine (incl Crimea) in 2023" to "Ukraine will lose the war" is wishful thinking. Likewise wanting powerful tanks that way outclass Russia's 70's designed tanks is to smash through Russian lines. (Germany has now approved the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks from Poland and Finland) The other armoured vehicles arriving shortly will give Russia a huge headache. Russia on the other hand is losing tanks faster than it can replace them, it's running out of ammunition and precision missiles.

While Russia is still a long way from economic collapse, things are a long way from rosy. Its oil and gas revenues have halved to the point where the sales price is just above the cost of extraction, its internal airlines are on the edge of collapse or catastrophe, and the cost of the war is ever-increasing.

2022 was a disaster for Russia, and 2023 is not looking much better.

In reversal, US poised to approve Abrams tanks for Ukraine
http://apnews.com/article/us-m1-abrams-tanks-ukraine-russia-249de5c301a9bf83b5f3ac2182076a02

"The other armoured vehicles arriving shortly will give Russia a huge headache."
Yes but it's not yet enough to make a difference.
Neither side will back down and the West will continue to escalate so we'll see what happens.
It's getting closer to being WWIII.

"Russia on the other hand is losing tanks faster than it can replace them, it's running out of ammunition and precision missiles."
- That depends on who's telling the story.
I've heard that Russias current industrial capacity is 250 new T90s per year and 600 T72 modernisations per year

Ukraine Russia War Latest w. Col. Doug Macgregor
http://youtu.be/K74GonVNYO4

AC,

The US is sending 30 M1s, Germany Poland and Finland are sending 14 Leopards each and the UK is sending 14 Challenger 2s. That Ukraine is getting about 100 Bradley which in Iraq killed more T72 than the M1s should worry Putin. All of the above tanks vastly outclass the T72 and T90s

Russia is losing about 60 tanks a month and as you said can build 250 T90s a year. The ability to upgrade T72s only works if they haven't been turned into scrap iron by a javelin or other ATGM of which the Ukrainians now have more than 90 000.

That there is visual proof of 3 Russian helicopters and 2 SU 25s being shot down in the last couple of days is making a prolonged war virtually impossible for Russia.

Russia's shortage of ammunition and the wear on its guns has resulted in a 75% drop in artillery fire.

The crude and gas ban by the EU and price cap is already costing Russia more than $45bn p.a. and the prohibition on refined products on the 5th of Feb will cost Russia nearly $20bn p.a. more especially with Russia already running a large budget deficit. While Russia is not in immediate danger of financial collapse, things are going to get grim by the end of the year.

This is not a war that Russia can win.

"The ability to upgrade T72s only works if they haven't been turned into scrap iron by a javelin or other ATGM of which the Ukrainians now have more than 90 000."

Russia has over 10,000 tanks in storage
(in various states of disrepair)

Tow missiles only have a 10% hit ratio when used by experienced crews, Leba

US reports shortage of Javelins, Stingers after Ukraine aid
http://www.jpost.com/international/article-705893

This chart explains why the US is running low on missiles
http://qz.com/this-chart-explains-why-the-us-is-running-low-on-missil-1849945208

Ukraine can't replace any of their stuff faster than they are losing it.
The West has scrounged all former soviet countries and scraped up what it can but it's not enough.
Russia keeps destroying them.
Western tanks are heavier, in the case of the Bradleys they have thinner tracks, they will get bogged down, as well as this you need to first train crews for all this equipment and there are serious logistical issues in regards to maintaining them, and Russia has strengthened all its defenses

- And nothing a good swarm of Orlan + Geranium 2 drones or Russian Kornets can't fix.
Ukraine isn't the only one with manpads.
http://youtu.be/-2Io7IWwe5Y

Seriously, the West wants to pick a fight with Russia overthrowing Ukraine and bombing the citizens of the Donbass for the last 8 years to get a war going and now they want to patch together a new army, new air force, new tanks, new armoured vehicles, more javelins and stingers and artillery?

Why?

All Ukraines stuff which was built up over 8 years from 2014 by the West plus all their existing Soviet inherited hardware is gone.

And what sort of a plan was this?
- No plan, the West has no plan for this.
The West never planned for this, they thought Russia would fold via the sanctions, that it would create a political crisis that would result in Putin's ousting.

The West will never admit it's done anything wrong
No matter what mess the West creates it will double down and escalate hoping to find something that can change the situation in time.

So neither side will budge, and many more will be killed by their adversaries.
On the Ukrainian side, this means teens (young kids that have yet to grow facial hair), handicapped and elderly (balding old men) being taken at gunpoint and sent to the front lines.

I've even heard they're turning up at funeral services for dead soldiers to collect and conscript family members / friends.

It's not all just 'hate Putin' narrative or 'Russian propaganda' you know.
Ukraine is not a good and decent country.
They sell weapons meant for their own troops to the highest bidder and send untrained men into battle without even having fired a gun, (and never even live to see a Russian when killed by artillery barrages. Even their bureaucrats grifting kickbacks from overpriced food procurement for troops.
They even assassinated one of their own negotiators last year.
- And that's just the stuff we know about.

AC,

To correct some of the half-truths and distortions you posted.

TOW missiles have been around since 1963 and the modern version has a kill rate of> 90% and can penetrate even reactive armour.

Ukraine already holds 3x the anti-tank missiles to kill every Russian tank and AFV, even those in storage, and the same goes for the anti-aircraft MANPADS.
The stinger missiles are now obsolete and not used by the US army. They still have over 100 000 in storage. While the US has been using stockpiles in Israel etc, the US and EU can vastly outproduce Russia when they get going.

Of the 10 000 tanks in Russian storage most have been parked in the open for decades and virtually none are battle ready. If they were Russia wouldn't be using T62s and T64s. The Bradley's treads /weight is better than the t72 tanks. Poland is now going to supply an additional 40 T72s and 100 BMPs from their stocks.

Russia's attack on the Orikhiv area over open fields was a massacre with the result that the front line has now moved further south.

Russian soldiers are dying at a rate of over 10 000 per month and the Russian budget is well in the red.

"Ukraine already holds 3x the anti-tank missiles to kill every Russian tank and AFV, even those in storage, and the same goes for the anti-aircraft MANPADS."

Yeh well Putin has Sarmat, Poseidon, Hypersonic missiles Khinzal and Zircon and Avangard Hypersonic Glide vehicles.
- Best not to forget that.

"Of the 10 000 tanks in Russian storage most have been parked in the open for decades and virtually none are battle ready."
I was just responding to your claim they'd have to pick up parts strewn across the battlefield, they have plenty of tanks they can use to modernise.
"If they were Russia wouldn't be using T62s and T64s."
I remember hearing something about that, maybe lighter and easier to maintain, can't remember exactly what it was right now.

Well see what happens when they launch their next counter offensive, if Russia hasn't launched their own offensive first.

Watched this last night, it was reasonably interesting.
Interview with Viktor Bout, the Russian Brittney Griner was traded for.
http://youtu.be/aLOzzuByYzc

"Russian soldiers are dying at a rate of over 10 000 per month and the Russian budget is well in the red."
Yeah yeah, and they only send in human waves and are running out of missles any day now, I've heard it all before.

Do you understand that as for propaganda, that you will play up your own sides successes and play down your losses,
- whilst at the same time you play down the other sides successes and play up their losses;
Both sides do this, it's a part of war but Ukraine is doing it so much more so.

Good example is Arestovich saying that the missile that hit that the building in Dnipro was firstly downed by Ukrainian forces.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/17/ukrainian-adviser-quits-after-claims-over-russian-missile-that-killed-dozens

Not sure why he said that, but you can see the truth as opposed to the narrative.
Why should we doubt him?

AC,

What Russian successes? Soledar, a tiny town of 10 000 pre-war, was captured after 5000 Russian died and more were injured after human wave attacks of Russians running over open fields into the teeth of machine guns and artillery. The Ukrainians had losses, but nothing like the Russians.

All this while Ukraine captures settlement after settlement in Luhansk and is closing in on Svatove and busy attacking Kreminna and killing Russians in their barracks all along the front line.

Of the 10 000 Russian tanks, about 2500 are considered salvageable after significant rebuilds.

All the missiles you mention are not precise. ICBMs are useless in Ukraine as are all the others you mention. Russia still has no answer for the HIMARS.

Russia is presently digging deep into its wealth fund, to pay laid-off workers etc. This fund is not likely to survive much past 2023.

Russia's single biggest problem is that Ukraine will not stop killing Russians by the thousands until Russia retreats to its pre-2014 borders

Discussions are now being had with regard to delivering F16s and A10s to Ukraine.

"Russia's single biggest problem is that Ukraine will not stop killing Russians by the thousands until Russia retreats to its pre-2014 borders"
What 157K dead / missing on the Ukrainian side and 19K dead on the Russian side?
Ukraine Russia War Latest w. Col. Doug Macgregor
http://youtu.be/K74GonVNYO4
Russians outnumber Ukrainian artillery about 10 to 1.
Russia is firing 20K rounds per day and Ukraine is firing 40K rounds per month.
Tell me do the Ukrainians have TOS-1A thermobaric weapons?
http://youtu.be/fngvcDPhnaQ
Why do you think the US is advising to retreat from Bakhmut, they're losing the war of attrition.
- That's why they are running around like mad hatters trying to patch together a frankenstein army on the fly
Some great articles discussed in yesterdays episode here:
Russia Closing Bakhmut Cauldron, Belarus Rejects Ukraine Offer; West Escalates, Sends Kiev Tanks
http://youtu.be/kAd5EphIZ1E

AC,

More BS Russian propoganda?

Even the most conservative estimates put Russian casualties at 180 000 dead and wounded. The Ukrainian losses don't even approach this probably 1/2.
Artillery ratios were 10:1 but now are closer to 3:1. Russia is now only firing 5000 rounds a day while Ukraine is firing about 2000 with vastly more accurate Nato guns.
Russia only has a handful of thermobaric rocket launchers and a shortage of rockets. These rockets are far more expensive and not significantly more dangerous. Russia still has nothing to compare with the HIMARS systems whose range is going to extend to 150km.
The US has not recommended that Ukraine abandon Bakhmut, and the new tanks are for the spring offensive. It looks as though Ukraine might have up to 100 leopard 2s along with the Abrams, Challengers and even LeClercs to go with the 100-odd Bradleys.

As far as Russian aviation is concerned airlines are seriously starting to run out of spares and in a few months will have to start reducing services. With Putin stealing $10bn in Aircraft, even when sanctions are lifted Russia will be screwed unless it pays for the stolen planes. I guess Putin will be issuing bicycles.

"More BS Russian propoganda?"
FYI, the guy stating it is a US Army Colonel.
If you watched my links you'd know what I know, but if you want to get your doctored info from Ukrainian sources then that's up to you.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-focus-preparing-offensive-not-212446407.html

"Ukraine should not fixate on defending the city of Bakhmut at all costs and instead use a window of opportunity to prepare a major counter-offensive against Russian forces, a senior US official said Friday...

...However, a senior official in President Joe Biden's administration said the focus on Bakhmut is hampering Ukraine in the more important task of preparing a widely expected spring offensive to make major gains against Russian occupation in the south.

According to the official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity and not being quoted verbatim, time favors Russia in Bakhmut, given its greater artillery resources and sheer numbers of troops."

Well as for the south, Ugledar (Vuhledar) is about to be captured.
It's under siege, surrounded on 3 sides and Russians have captured the water treatment plant and substation.
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnZr6GEWAAASNMS?format=jpg&name=medium

As for the other attacks in the south, I heard Russian forces are using a tactic to attack a town and get Ukrainians to fire artillery at them and then fall back, the Orlans locate the artillery when they fire and then the Russians target the artillery.

"With Putin stealing $10bn in Aircraft..."

How much has the West stolen from Russia?

http://www.reuters.com/world/europe/brussels-proposes-plan-confiscate-frozen-russian-assets-2022-11-30/

"The European Commission proposed a plan on Wednesday to compensate Ukraine for damage from Russia's invasion with proceeds from investing Russian funds frozen under sanctions.
Officials in the EU, United States and other Western countries have debated whether Ukraine can benefit from frozen Russian assets, including around $300 billion of Russia's central bank reserves and $20 billion held by blacklisted Russians.
Moscow says seizing its funds or those of its citizens amounts to theft."

NYET MEANS NYET
1st February 2008.

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1. (C) Summary. Following a muted first reaction to
Ukraine's intent to seek a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP)
at the Bucharest summit (ref A), Foreign Minister Lavrov and
other senior officials have reiterated strong opposition,
stressing that Russia would view further eastward expansion
as a potential military threat. NATO enlargement,
particularly to Ukraine, remains "an emotional and neuralgic"
issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also
underlie strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and
Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue
could potentially split the country in two, leading to
violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force
Russia to decide whether to intervene. Additionally, the GOR
and experts continue to claim that Ukrainian NATO membership
would have a major impact on Russia's defense industry,
Russian-Ukrainian family connections, and bilateral relations
generally. In Georgia, the GOR fears continued instability
and "provocative acts" in the separatist regions. End
summary.
http://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html

The US knew back in 2008 exactly what would happen.
They conducted the coup, they spent 8 years killing the people of Donbass.
The spent years creating this situation in order to oust Putin.
They thought the sanctions would work, but they didn't.
Now they need to patch together a new army, air force etc. on the fly...

US Tools for diplomacy are:
Threats, Blackmail, Regime Change and Military Intervention;
- And no reverse gear, they just double down when mistakes are made, and here we are.

AC,

More Russian propaganda. Nothing justifies Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Russia's assets are frozen not stolen. The $10bn of Aircraft it stole was from private companies which means that the credit rating of Russian airlines is at the level of criminals. Until Russia pays for the stolen aircraft they will never get another western aircraft or spares.

Russian airlines will slowly strangle until they no longer exist.

Russia’s Pantsyr-S1 air defense systems upgraded to intercept US HIMARS rockets
http://tass.com/defense/1566653

Russia unveiled a weapon that can intercept HIMARS missiles
http://youtu.be/Bwaj40d2jbQ

Apparently they captured / acquired intact HIMARS missiles and have been studying them...

Holy crap they openly admit to assassinating suspected collaborators, and put it right there in the news
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/30/ukraine-russia-himars-decoy-artillery/

"In recent weeks, Kyiv’s operatives have blown up rail and electricity lines in occupied Russian territory, detonated explosives inside Russian arms depots and assassinated suspected collaborators."

- Sounds more like 'war crimes'...

AC,

It might come as a shock to you, but partisans assassinating collaborators assisting the Russian occupation has never been a war crime.

What are war crimes are attacks on civilian buildings and infrastructure with missiles and shells, the torture and execution of civilians etc all crimes committed in thousands by the Russians.

Since Russia has claimed to have their air defence systems, they have failed to shoot down a single HIMARS rocket. This is due to these rockets travelling at about Mach 4 and in groups. Any air defence system has only about 10 seconds to identify, target and fire a missile before the rocket is gone.

I see that other countries are piling on giving Ukraine about 150 leopard 2s plus Abrams and 60 T72s and also more Howitzers and HIMARS systems.

"It might come as a shock to you, but partisans assassinating collaborators assisting the Russian occupation has never been a war crime."

I'd argue otherwise, it seems more like the murder of unarmed Russian speaking civillians to me, and an even bigger crime when you go door to door in Bucha detaining people with white armbands, zip-ties their hands behinds their back and then putting a bullet in the back of their heads and then saying Russians did it.

- And it wasn't simply 'assassinating collaborators'...
It was assassinating 'SUSPECTED' collaborators.
Capital punishment without any fair trial.
(But that's no a real lot different to dead Ukrainian conscripts taken at gunpoint and sent to the front line.)

If Russia had've done the same thing to captured Azov brigade, it would be you screaming Geneva convention and war crimes.

"What are war crimes are attacks on civilian buildings and infrastructure with missiles and shells, the torture and execution of civilians etc all crimes committed in thousands by the Russians."

No the recognised war crime is putting military targets in proximity of civilians, which Ukraine certainly has done, deliberately using the buildings for defense and as such, using the people who live in them as human shields.

Zelensky even said he opposed evacuating Kiev when they have no power or water, because Kiev could more easily be attacked and captured if evacuated. He'd rather they freeze in their own homes and use them as human shields then take them out of harms way.

The ABRAMS likely wont be present for Ukraine's coming offensive, though the US mite be being ambiguous.
But Biden needed to ensure German Panzers were.
I'm told the Leopard 2 is quite formidable, and built to destroy Russian tanks.

Looks like Ukraine got lucky in Ugledar and pushed the Russians out, for now.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/26/is-biden-right-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine-our-panel-reacts

Look what these morons are saying:

"These tanks aren’t going to help end the war any time soon. Hopefully, they are intended to build up Kyiv’s negotiating position and this might encourage the Kremlin to rethink its extreme war aims, thus moving this war toward a negotiated endgame."

'Build up Kievs negotiating position'?

Neither side is going to negotiate, one side is going to have to capitulate.
On the Russian side, if they are not doing well it will only harden their resolve and make it much easier to mobilise another 500K.

There's too much at stake for both Russia and US / NATO, both sides face existential threats,
Russia stands to be surrounded by the West and chopped up into tiny pieces, and have their culture destroyed where the West stands to have NATO lose and break up, and its rules based order of threats, blackmail (sanctions), regime change and military intervention as well as it's global hegemony at risk.
Whereas Ukraine is merely just a pawn in a bigger game.

Chances are probably even money this mess will end in a nuclear confrontation.

What I don't like is that even right now all citizens of all countries are going to have to pay back debts incurred by their countries for generations because of a few who WANTED to start a war.

It's not Zelensky, Putin or Biden who will pay for this war.
It's the citizens of all the countries who will spend years working and paying taxes to cover the increased cost of living and war debts.
- When all our nations money comes as a debt with interest payable.

All these countries are committing military equipment to a war that even they haven't paid for as its all funded by an increase in national debt.

Great for the bankers and elite plans of global conquest, but horrible for all nations citizens.

AC,

The collaborators were Ukrainians in senior positions in Kherson and Zaporizhya notably the Enemy appointed mayors had a particularly short life expectancy. Shooting random civilians is a Russian, not Ukrainian thing.

There were no military targets anywhere near the buildings hit by Russian missiles and shells.

The about 150 leopard 2 will smash the Russians, The US has 13 000 Abrams in service or in storage which are ready for action. Ukraine also has roughly another 150 T72s The $40bn that the US has pledged to Ukraine is 5% of the annual US military budget and most of the weapons they have sent are from obsolete stock e.g. stingers.

Russia is losing about 800 soldiers killed per day with their WW1 type of attacks. They are losing about 2-3 tanks a day on average which is 3x the amount they can build. Their missile attacks are getting smaller and further apart which indicates that they are running out.

It looks as though Russia is heading for 3rd world economic status.

"There were no military targets anywhere near the buildings hit by Russian missiles and shells."

Of course there were in areas being defended, and when there wasn't its foreign fighters or western arms and other western military / war related staff being housed.

"Russia is losing about 800 soldiers killed per day with their WW1 type of attacks."

Potato potarto, he says she says, whatever
That's may not be factual any more than its just hype from one side.

This could make things interesting however:

Western partners promise to provide Kyiv with 321 heavy tanks – Ukrainian ambassador to France
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/887589.html

"Their missile attacks are getting smaller and further apart which indicates that they are running out."

I think I heard that their current industrial capacity is 3 million rounds of ammunition per year, which is about half what they're using.
They will have to double production to keep up.

Found this interesting
- Why is Germany trying to get shells for the Leopard 2's from Brazil?
It was only a small shipment (4.9 million worth)
But it begs the question why do they need them?
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/887518.html

I'm fairly sure both ABRAMS and LEOPARD 2 both use same 120mm shells.
US must have plenty ammo one would think, so why is Germany going to Brazil?

Tank Chats - Leopard 2 | The Tank Museum
http://youtu.be/B4cl45gLB2U

AC,

The whole of Ukraine is being defended, so by your logic, all women and children in Ukraine are legitimate targets.

Why does Germany buy ammunition from Brazil? Perhaps because Brazil has a huge German population, a massive industrial base, and close industrial ties. Also, it is cheaper and faster. The same question could be why Russia is buying ammunition from North Korea.

The effect of the oil cap

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z68JAgpXTzE&t=400s

On Feb 5, 2023, the EU ban will extend to all refined oil products. The noose around Russia's economy is getting tighter and tighter.

In 1990 Russia pulled out of Afghanistan when wives and mothers reacted to the 15000 husbands and sons coming back in body bags. Though Russia is being careful to hide its casualties, the vast numbers of funerals and soldiers "missing" is not going unnoticed, and when families realize that sons and husbands are unlikely to come back alive then things will get bad for Putin.

"The whole of Ukraine is being defended, so by your logic, all women and children in Ukraine are legitimate targets."

You're not allowed to put military equipment near civilian areas, thats a war crime.
- And since when does the US care about civilian lives
They call it 'collateral damage' like it's a cost of doing business.

"Why does Germany buy ammunition from Brazil? Perhaps because Brazil has a huge German population..."
- Brazil told Germany to ping ding.
They're a part of BRICS and unwilling to antagonise Russia.

I'm not sure about Joe Bloggs content.

"In 1990 Russia pulled out of Afghanistan when wives and mothers reacted to the 15000 husbands and sons coming back in body bags."

Afghanistan wasn't a specific military threat to Russia, like the US is with it's foreign policy, overthrows and nuclear weapons.

"Though Russia is being careful to hide its casualties, the vast numbers of funerals and soldiers "missing" is not going unnoticed"
- That's how the 19K figure was calculated.

Look at this article, it's like a fishing expedition to catch Russia out not informing people about dead family members.
I'm not even sure what the point of the article even is.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-28/russia-ukraine-wagner-group-prisoner-army/101898826

Both sides are planning offensive operations soon
We'll see how it all unfolds I guess.

AC,

Now you're just spouting BS. There were no military bases or equipment anywhere near where the Russian missiles are killing women and children.

The BRICs countries are perfectly happy to take money for ammunition from the EU and USA. Russia is without friends.

If you believe Russia's claim of only 19k dead then I have a bridge to sell you. The number is closer to 100k dead.

"Now you're just spouting BS. There were no military bases or equipment anywhere near where the Russian missiles are killing women and children."

Why don't we go back to earlier in the war and look at this one event.
Lets consider the attitude and thoughts of Ukraines political and military leaders.

http://www.voanews.com/a/un-russia-and-ukraine-share-blame-for-nursing-home-attack-/6652481.html

"Two weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Russian forces assaulted a nursing home in the eastern region of Luhansk. Dozens of elderly and disabled patients, many of them bedridden, were trapped inside...
...A few days before the attack, Ukrainian soldiers took up positions inside the nursing home, effectively making the building a target.
At least 22 of the 71 patients survived the assault, but the exact number of people killed remains unknown, according to the United Nations."

What's that tell you?
That Ukraine's political and military leadership have no qualms whatsoever taking up positions in a nursing home full of bedridden elderly and handicapped people.
- And somehow you find it impossible to believe that after Russia destroyed pretty much all of Ukraine's military bases and can attack ANYWHERE in the country that Ukraine wont place weapons and military assets amongst civilian areas?

Don't believe me?
Well here's what Amnesty International says:

Ukrainian fighting tactics endanger civilians
http://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/

* Military bases set up in residential areas including schools and hospitals
* Attacks launched from populated civilian areas

Hello... Charter boat... What Charter boat?
If you have a bridge to sell you'd be better off keeping it, so you can get over it.

You've annoyed me by calling BS to Russian KIA numbers enough to go back through the videos and to find where it's stated, and to supply you with the damn transcript.

"The BRICs countries are perfectly happy to take money for ammunition from the EU and USA. Russia is without friends."
Really?
"Lula refused the transfer, arguing that the Russia shouldn’t be provoked."
http://news.yahoo.com/brazil-refuses-germany-tank-shells-003700289.html

The West is only a smaller % of global population.
More people by actual population side with Russia.

Going back to the attack on the Nursing Home:

"The report by the U.N.'s Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights doesn't conclude the Ukrainian soldiers, or the Russian troops committed a war crime. But it said the battle at the nursing home is emblematic of the human rights office's concerns over the potential use of 'human shields' to prevent military operations in certain areas."

Ukraine Russia War Latest w. Col. Doug Macgregor
Streamed 4 days ago.
http://youtu.be/K74GonVNYO4?t=1169

"What is your understanding of the latest numbers of military killed - Ukraine / Russia?"

Ukraine - 157,000
Russia - 16 to 25 thousand.

Unfortunately this isn't the video detailing how they calculated those numbers, but you're calling BS to what I'm saying, well I'm not the one saying it am I?
- And many things you've claimed I've shown is incorrect.

The war is escalating.

What happens if you get your F-16s?
They will have to fly out of NATO bases.
What happens if Russia attacks those NATO bases in eastern Europe?
- This would trigger NATO article 5
“an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.”
At this point you'd see Europeans and Americans sent to Ukraine to fight Russians.
- And mass protests in Europe when their loved ones come home in bodybags fighting for a country that isn't even a part of the EU or NATO. (and possibly the US)
Attacks on Russia itself would risk further attacks on those countries beyond NATO bases.
And Americans fighting Russians in conventional combat could lead to WW3.

Slipper Slope.
Right now there's no escaping the escalation.
Germany couldn't NOT send the tanks.
If it refused, then it would get the blame when Ukraine loses, which many of the Europeans now believe to be the eventual outcome.
None of them can opt-out.
Countdown to WW3 has begun.

Dear Critic,

«Countdown to WW3 has begun.»

What do you mean by "countdown"?

We are already in WW3 for a year, at least!

Somehow the tendency is to imagine the next war to be like the previous one and wait for the same patterns - but tactics and battles are always different.

Like it or not, we are IN this WW3, and you better end on the winning side!

Hi Shadow Minister,

Not even a few hours pass and I see reports of further allegations of war crimes on the Ukrainian side.

Kremlin lashes U.S, Ukraine for HIMARS strike on civil hospital; 'Heinous War Crimes'
http://youtu.be/ntMOJ2tv1Cg

Hi Yuyutsu,
"What do you mean by 'countdown'?"
- I think that a negotiated resolution of the conflict is becoming less likely, and all out war between NATO / US and Russia which will lead to nuclear war is becoming more likely.

"We are already in WW3 for a year, at least!"
Troops in American uniforms are yet to be shooting at troops in Russian uniforms, and WW3 is probably related to 'when the nukes drop'.
Two nuclear armed nations fighting a proxy war in Ukraine...
(Well the US is fighting a proxy war, Russia and Ukraine are fighting a real one, but the US has maybe more to lose than Russia)
It certainly has the making of what could well result in a nuclear conflict.

- But Russia (Maria Zakharova) has just recently stated that NATO is now directly involved in the conflict.
Even the video above states Russia alleges the US is now directly involved in the conflict.

"Like it or not, we are IN this WW3, and you better end on the winning side!"

Not sure how it's going to turn out.
They say in a nuclear war nobody wins.
I can only add that I will stand up for whatever I think is right, regardless of the eventual outcome

The Ukraine conflict may yet become the Wests Afghanistan.
- 'Graveyard of Empires'

alea iacta est
The die has been cast
We've passed the point of no return.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/29/amid-the-smoke-of-war-power-in-europe-is-shifting-decisively-to-the-east

"But this is just the first in many further escalatory steps that Nato governments are certain to face in the coming months, regardless of how the war develops. If the inevitable Russian spring offensive against Ukraine proves more successful than currently feared, demands will grow for the supply of fighter jets to Ukraine’s armed forces. So will suggestions of an even more direct Nato involvement in defending Ukraine’s skies. Today, that’s unthinkable. But then, supplying western tanks was also taboo until recently.

Conversely, if the anticipated Ukrainian offensive does better than Nato military planners anticipate, the question of the liberation of occupied Crimea – with the expected fleeing of hundreds of thousands of Russian settlers from the peninsula – will arise. And so would the risk that the Putin regime will resort to a nuclear escalation in order to stave off total humiliation and collapse."

If Ukraine does badly, the West will escalate.
If Russia does badly they will fully mobilise.

I'm not sure there's any way out.
This could very likely end with Russia and the US nuking each other.
There's plenty of things that could happen, but I can't see anything changing this formula of both sides continuing to escalate until one side drops a nuclear bomb on the other, at which point the other sides nuclear subs will respond.

The only other option I see is the US covertly detonating a nuke on Ukrainian soil and blaming Russia, before things get that far.

Dear Critic,

«I think that a negotiated resolution of the conflict is becoming less likely, and all out war between NATO/US and Russia which will lead to nuclear war is becoming more likely.»

Took you a whole year to reach this conclusion?

For me this was obvious a year ago.
The day Russia invaded I told my family that WW3 has started, and yes, it will be nuclear.

Each war is different and this one started rather slowly, but that's just the tactics, the nukes are bound to drop, the question is just how many of them.

«the video above states Russia alleges the US is now directly involved in the conflict.»

Was that ever a secret?

«Not sure how it's going to turn out.»

Millions dead of course, hope it won't be billions.

«They say in a nuclear war nobody wins.»

That's sentimental. There was a nuclear war already once and the Americans won over Japan.

We cannot be sure of course, but according to Mathematical Game Theory, chances are that there will be a winner, that some humans will survive.

When both sides have many nukes, the winning strategy is statistical.
You don't just throw bombs where you like - that's a losing strategy: instead you throw maybe 0.03-0.13 bombs (the exact best strategy can be computed).

Instead of just throwing a bomb, which would escalate too quickly, get out of hand and cause human extinction (a losing strategy), you set up a list of enemy cities and assign small probabilities to each of them, which all add up to much less than 1, then openly declare your intention and throw a digital random "dice", which tells irreversibly which city to nuke, if any (highest probability is none), without human intervention. Neither these automated methods nor the theory behind them were available in WW2, but are available now.

«I can only add that I will stand up for whatever I think is right»

I don't like either empire, but I will side with the empire under which life is relatively more tolerable because freedom is relatively less restricted.

Hi Yuyutsu,
Up until now I hoped that there would be some kind of decisive end to the conflict without it escalating further.
(In the absence of a negotiated resolution)
- Maybe I was being naive, or it was wishful thinking.
Nobody wants to think nuclear war is unavoidable.

Just watched these 3 important short videos.
They're all by different authors, but are related on topic.
If anyone watches them, they'll know what I mean by related.

2023.01.28 The West Has Lost Already
http://youtu.be/q9957O8n8d0

Global alternative to US' World Order growing. Russia's friends India + China buy its oil like crazy.
http://youtu.be/IerrPchFkaE

Peter Schiff - China & Russia Are Sabotaging The US Economy By Dumping Trillions Of US Dollars
http://youtu.be/iWoGIepyLqE

The US has gone from 5 trillion debt to 32 trillion debt under Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden.

AC,

You keep on framing this as a war with the west. This is a war between Ukraine and Russia, there are no NATO soldiers involved at all thus this cannot be a graveyard for the west, but it is a graveyard for more than 100 000 Russian soldiers.

To put this into context, the value of all the aid that the US has sent to Ukraine amounts to about 3% of the US's annual military budget. On top of this much of this is obsolete equipment that would never be used by the US army yet is still better than most of the crap that Russia is using. As far as the US is concerned this is a bargain-basement destruction of the Russian army. The F16s planned for Ukraine are also surplus stock.

There are 1000s of confirmed war crimes committed by Russians. The amnesty report to which you refer was withdrawn after the novice decided that any military in a city made the entire city a target. This will be decided at the war crimes tribunal later.

As far as arms and ammunition the EU, US and Canada have more than 50x the production capacity of Russia.

As for the nuclear threat, Russia has been left with no doubt that any nuke detonated would be a catastrophe for Russia.

"As far as arms and ammunition the EU, US and Canada have more than 50x the production capacity of Russia."

No they don't.

Ukraine and the West are facing a shortage on the battlefield.
They can't match Russia.
(And this is an actual shortage, not like the pretend one you attribute to Russia)
And you'll see soon enough.
US and UK can't even send their tanks without telling Ukraine to keep them out of harms way because they don't want them captured and studied by Russia, who has already obtained HIMARS tank shells.
Send your tanks, and Russia will capture the tech.
Russia will take it and share it with the Chinese and all your tanks are going to get burned anyway.
They scream for tanks and F16's but who will operate them, it takes months to train tank crews and pilots on new systems.

Oh, and by the way Sholtz went to Argentina to get tank shells for the Leopards 2 and was sent packing there as well.
So much for whatever you said, again.
Brazil and Argentina are forming a common currency (probably with BRICS) which can only really exist with Russia.

Everyone is ditching the dollar, the US is not going to be able to fund its debts.

Do you actually watch the videos I post or are do you already believe you know it all and needn't bother?

NATO nation snubs U.S.; Putin wins Erdogan’s praise amid sanctions row | ‘Respect For Russia’
http://youtu.be/NM_Ow9_OJz4

China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Vietnam etc.

They're all turning against the West.
They're forming an anti West block.
And that's what you get when you rule the world with threats, blackmail, regime change and military intervention.
- The people you screw over make friends with each other, and when you screw everyone over eventually you have no friends.
All China has to do is stop trade with UK and they will collapse.
And China hold a trillion in US debt which it's dumping.

"The UAF are being asked to learn and train on potentially a dozen or more types of IFVs and multiple tank variants, being required to deal with the maintenance challenges, fuel requirements, different ammunition and fire control systems – while fighting daily for their lives. It is very unlikely that in mere months from now the Ukrainian army – or even a Western army for that matter – will be able to fall in on a hodge podge of equipment it has never seen and had limited training, for which it has no existing system of logistics or maintenance, and launch an effective large-scale and successful counteroffensive against an entrenched enemy."

http://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/01/will-m1-abrams-and-leopard-2-tanks-win-the-war-for-ukraine/

Hey Shadow Minister

150k Ukrainians dead + 25K Russians dead +
x 3 for casualties = 500k KIA and wounded

All to prevent Donbass from gaining autonomy?
Just to stop them from the right to self determination?
Do you actually think this is what it's all about?

What do you think one of the main objectives of the 2014 coup was?
Why do you think the West went bat shite crazy about Russia taking Crimea?

Crimea WAS THE PRIZE the West thought they'd gained, but lost.
The West was going to turn the Russian Naval base in Sevestapol into a NATO base, and take control of the Black Sea.

- After the Maidan, Putin beat them to it -

With 150K dead Ukrainians, and the country largely destroyed,
Do you really think this was about the West defending Ukrainians best interests?

AC,

Russia is running out of ammunition, so its firing rate has dropped by 75%. The US and EU have not started producing tank ammunition and when tooled up can produce vast quantities. Russia's industrial base has been mostly focused on oil and gas and its arms industry is small.

The builder of the leopard 2 can produce 240 000 120mm tank shells a year or 20 000 per month. The production capacity of the US is higher and US stockpiles are massive. In addition, Ukraine is getting ammunition from more than a dozen EU countries. The 321 tanks coming to Ukraine will appear on the battlefield in a few months.

The decision is being made to supply long-range HIMARS missiles and F16 and A10 aircraft whereas Russia has lost 13 aircraft/helicopters in the last week that it cannot replace.

AC

Why do you keep posting absolute sh1te? If Russia had so few casualties then why mobilize 320 000 men and 40 000 prisoners for cannon fodder? And why is Russia still mobilizing men?

Why does Russia have anti-retreat firing squads if their troops are doing so well?

Looks like the US got the protests in Moscow it wanted.
http://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1620085551440486400

"Russia's industrial base has been mostly focused on oil and gas and its arms industry is small."
- Do you get this info from the same people who've been saying Russia is about to run out of missiles since last April?

"The builder of the leopard 2 can produce 240 000 120mm tank shells a year or 20 000 per month."
- So why has Sholtz gone begging to Latin American countries for tank shells then?
Brazil, Argentina and Chile all said no.

The production capacity of the US is higher and US stockpiles are massive.
- No it's not. The US military already has serious concerns about how much and how quickly the Ukraine conflict has been eating into its own stockpiles, so much so that it doesn't want to send any more of its own but ramp up production instead.

Stoltenberg putting the pressure on South Korea
http://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/30/asia/nato-chief-south-korea-speech-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html

"The 321 tanks coming to Ukraine will appear on the battlefield in a few months."
- And they'll burn, this isn't Iraq.
They crews won't be well trained, they have serious maintenance and logistical issues.
They Challenger 2 and ABRAMS might not even have the same armour as UK and US don't want their tech captured.

"The decision is being made to supply long-range HIMARS missiles and F16 and A10 aircraft whereas Russia has lost 13 aircraft/helicopters in the last week that it cannot replace."

Russia has already largely figured out how to counter HIMARS, the shock and awe is gone.
They've captured the shells and have shared the tech with China,
- which puts a huge dent in Washington's China war plans.
Again this isn't Iraq, Russia has the worlds best air defense.
If their production capabilities were so bad, NATO wouldn't be panicking.

Go watch something useful.
http://www.youtube.com/live/fBGe4US7XFs?feature=share

Will Russian athletes be allowed to participate in the
2024 Olympic Games?

I certainly hope NOT!

Russia’s economic growth suggests Western sanctions are having a limited impact.
http://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/31/world/europe/russias-economic-growth-suggests-western-sanctions-are-having-a-limited-impact.html

"The resilience of Russia’s economy is helping fuel global growth, according to a new report by the International Monetary Fund, suggesting that efforts by Western nations to weaken Moscow because of its war in Ukraine appear to be faltering.
In a report issued on Monday, the I.M.F. predicts that Russian output will expand 0.3 percent in this year and 2.1 percent next year, defying earlier forecasts of a steep contraction in 2023 amid a raft of Western sanctions."

Pentagon-backed think tank urges US to stop war between Russia, Ukraine
http://www.firstpost.com/world/pentagon-backed-think-tank-urges-us-govt-to-stop-war-between-russia-ukraine-12070132.html

"Washington: The RAND Corporation has urged the United States (US) government to try to end the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
In a landmark report, the RAND Corporation – a highly influential elite national security think tank which is funded directly by the Pentagon – has claimed that prolonging the war between Russia and Ukraine is actively harming the US and its allied nations.
The report, which is titled “Avoiding a long war: US policy and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” states that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the most significant interstate conflict in decades, and its evolution may have a major negative impact on US interests.
Admitting that if the United States (US) ends its support, the Ukraine resistance against the invasion by Russia will collapse, the RAND Corporation claimed that it will still be a reasonable course of action for US President Joe Biden.
The report claims that it is pointless to help Ukraine since a Russian defeat is highly unlikely and warned the US government of several scenarios which may prompt Russia to consider using nuclear weapons."

http://www.russiamatters.org/news
"Regaining Crimea by military force may be impossible partly because Putin has indicated that an assault on the peninsula would be a tripwire for nuclear escalation."

Russia's Medvedev: Attack on Crimea will ignite 'Judgement Day' response
http://www.reuters.com/world/europe/medvedev-wests-refusal-recognise-crimea-russian-is-threat-2022-07-17/

Foxy,
Do you think it's ok to punish individuals for what their governments do?

If so, you should go find a Russian living in Australia and abuse and mistreat them because of what Putin does.
- It's a really poor attitude to have towards others in my opinion.

Russian Army's 'shell' counters US-made HIMARS; Trouble for Zelensky's men in Donetsk
http://youtu.be/TUAG9PbguPs

Russia’s Pantsyr-S1 air defense systems upgraded to intercept US HIMARS rockets
http://tass.com/defense/1566653

Himars rockets travel at Mach 2.5 (3060 klm/hr)
The updated Pansir S1 system can track up to 4 objects simultaneously and intercept moving targets travelling up to 1000 meters per second. (3600 klm/hr)
Pansir S1 radar detection range has been increased to 40 klm.

M1 ABRAMS Tanks For Ukraine Need To Be Built From Scratch

U.S. Not Prepared to take on Russia
http://www.youtube.com/live/cmIKBEiaRyA?feature=share&t=1430

Some people here need to listen to the whole video;
- They're just supporting getting more Ukrainians killed and doing further harm to ourselves.

Hi shadowminister,

"Why do you keep posting absolute sh1te?"
It's not my fault you've been relying on Ukrainian sources.
I've been trying to share all the info I'm getting for months, if not years on this topic.

"If Russia had so few casualties then why mobilize 320 000 men and 40 000 prisoners for cannon fodder?"

It hoped for a negotiated settlement early in the conflict, when that didn't happen and the war continued and some troops quit at the end of 6 month contracts Russia found it didn't have enough troops under the terms of the SMO.
It understood that US and NATO would likely escalate so it mobilised 300K more and 70K volunteers, (as well as Wagner, Chechens and forces of the LPR and DPR).

"And why is Russia still mobilizing men?"
- I guess they're not only preparing to put a decisive end to this conflict, but they're also preparing for the potential for Polish or NATO troops to enter the conflict.

- This is why they've already established miles of defensive lines.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/08/russia-installs-dragons-teeth-blocks-in-shift-to-more-defensive-warfare
(Personally I wonder whether they cant just tie a chain around the tank main gun and lift a couple of these dragon teeth out of the way and drive through, although I don't know if that would do damage to a tanks main gun - and there's also anti-tank mines as well)

"Why does Russia have anti-retreat firing squads if their troops are doing so well?"
You're projecting, I've heard exactly the same things about the UAF, though I can't remember the slang name that was given to those units.
I've actually seen at least 3 videos of Ukrainian men being thrown to the ground and dragged away screaming and thrown in a van to be sent to fight at the front (but Twitter removes them);
I've even seen detailed instructions on how to surrender to RF without being killed.

In response to your understanding of Western industrial capacity, I suggest you read this:

JANUARY 2023
EMPTY BINS IN A WARTIME ENVIRONMENT
The Challenge to the U.S. Defense Industrial Base
http://tinyurl.com/2dh5t46d

AC,

I don't rely on Ukrainian sources if I did the figures would be much higher. Your figures are clearly from Russian sources who clearly lie through their teeth. For example, they claimed the destruction of 4 Bradley vehicles a week ago when they had yet to arrive and still haven't.

In 3 days the ban on refined products comes into effect and the Russian budget shrinks by another $1bn a week.

The 321 advanced tanks coming from the US will smash Russia's 1970s design of tanks.

Russia will never win this war.

Hi AC,

My gran was Russian.

My daughter-in-law and her family are Russian.

I was raised with Russian culture.

What I am objecting to are the Russians who are supporting
Putin - They deserve a strong message - to be sent.

Hey shadowminister,
I told everyone months ago.
All things being equal:

Russians will talk up their successes and play down their failures.
- At the same time -
They will talk up Ukrainian failures and play down Ukrainian successes.

The same goes for the Ukrainian side,
They will talk up their successes and play down their failures.
- And at the same time -
They will talk up Russian failures and play down Russian successes.

Beyond this, you can imagine that this is a matter of troop morale.
- Essential on both sides for their war effort.

But when reporters print one sides narrative as if its the actual true state of things, then there's a risk that people at home are going to be mislead.

This is especially true when keeping the citizens at home hopeful of a particular outcome and thus supporting the impositions of said war:

You don't want the citizens at home losing faith in the war effort because the moment they do, they will also withdraw their support.
- These things are essential on both sides for their war effort.

And that's why 'The first casualty of war is the truth'.

FYI, Russians have gained operational encirclement in Bakhmut.
The window for Ukrainians to safely withdraw from the city has now closed.
I also heard last night they've captured Krasna Hora, though it's not unofficial, unconfirmed at this point.
I haven't followed any news today, but I did find the videos of Ukrainians being grabbed off the street and sent to the front.

Hi Foxy,
What if your gran (as well as your great grandparents) had struggled for years to see your gran reach her potential and compete on an Olympic level.
How would you feel if all that was thrown away;
- Because foreign people with an attitude such as yourself said Russians should be banned from competing?

Do you really think that would be fair?
You didn't say 'Russians who support Putin's war, you simply said 'Russians'.
Individuals aren't responsible for what their country does.

If you think so, then name one thing Australia has done, that I'm myself responsible for.

I hope that all people who have worked hard to compete at an Olympic level get to compete, regardless of where they come from of what their country does.
Those achievements are theirs alone.
They worked hard, made the sacrifices, and deserve the recognition.
if their country helped them achieve this, they deserve some recognition too, regardless of ANY other issue.

Politics and sport don't mix.
I'm not trying to badger you, but what you've suggested in your first comment simply isn't fair.
It's not fair to take these peoples dreams that they worked for away from them.

There's a small window for current offensives,
(based on the current temperature in Ukraine - when it goes below zero)
In the north that window began today and from what I understand the Ukrainians have gone on an offensive there.
In the south, that window opens on Saturday.

We'll see what happens over the next week.

Don't pin all your hopes on those tanks.
Without air support they're going to burn like the thousands of tanks that came before them.
There have been very few tank on tank battles during the conflict.
Russia destroys them with artillery, drones and missiles.
F-16's are just the first step towards more modern planes.
- When they're shot down, then it will be F-15s and then F-35s.

AC,

Russia doesn't just talk up its figures it often makes up stuff such as the destruction of Bradleys and HIMARS. The figures I quote are from sources that try to independently confirm the numbers. There is no equivalent on the Russian side.

As for air superiority, Russia clearly doesn't have it. Having lost 13 aircraft in a week near Vuhledar as well as plenty of tanks and APVs and more than 1000 men. (confirmed by Satellite.)

The F16s, F15s and F35s would swat the Russian planes from the sky. PS. most of the about 2000 Russian tanks have been destroyed by artillery and ATGMs mostly because NATO ATGMs and artillery is far better and more accurate than the Russians.

The next round of bans/price caps is likely to cut at least $50m /day from Russia's revenues

Hi AC,

My Gran fled from the Soviet regime.
She would never support tyrants like Putin - ever.
And ti is up to the today's Russian people to join in the war
to get rid of that tyrant. So she would be demonstrating
against Russians being allowed to take part in the Olympics.
She would be leading the parade against them until they got
the message that their behaviour in supporting this tyrant is
unacceptable to free people everywhere.

Found those videos of Ukrainians being detained by force and sent to fight.
They hadn't been removed after all, sometimes twitter is weird the way it displays the order of users posts.
These are just from the last couple of weeks.

When you detain and send people to the front line under these circumstances, then you will need people on the second line of defense to shoot them if / when they try to retreat.

Watch the videos included in the tweets.

"At this point, APU is just kidnapping civilians and sending them to the front."
http://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status/1617159194532274176

"More forced mobilisation in Krivoy Rog, to the last Ukrainian."
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1617936165402968065

I don’t know how the Pro-Ukrainian side can just ignore the videos of people getting pulled away to go die in a war. They often make the claim that this is happening in Russia but we only see videos of it in the Ukraine.
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1620508094081146880

By the way, Bakhmut is now under operational encirclement.
The window to retreat from the city without being under Russian fire has now closed.
They are making progress north east of Soledar, taking the towns of Sakko I Vantsetti and Mykolaivka

Ukrainians wearing Nazi SS patches.
http://twitter.com/lvivtyler/status/1621199816511590401

AC,

The Ukrainians seem not to have got the message that they are encircled and are still moving men and equipment in and out. I would suggest that you find new sources of information as your present ones are almost always wrong.

The video is of someone being detained or arrested. Which country this is in or what it is for is unexplained and even if it was what you say, this is going on 1000x as much in Russia.

Russia is losing this war.

"The Ukrainians seem not to have got the message that they are encircled and are still moving men and equipment in and out."

There's only one road left to Chasiv Yar they can get in an out on but they risk coming under fire.
The others are under fire control or cut off entirely.
It was reported in Tass and Russia's Channel One 2 days ago.

"The situation [in Artyomovsk] is very difficult for Ukrainian servicemen because our soldiers have already moved around the settlement’s flanks. Moreover, I want to remark that they [the Ukrainian forces] have a chance, let’s say, to flee, rather than plan a retreat, because all the roads that lead to the settlement are shelled by our troops. And they are, as they say, closely watched by our reconnaissance units," he said on Channel One.
http://tass.com/politics/1569989

However, Prigozhin (Also 2 days ago) said that Artyomovsk (Ukrainian name - Bakhmut) today is not yet in the operational encirclement of Russian forces.
"Operational encirclement implies all roads and routes of supply, evacuation and any movement are under fire control. At the moment, there is no operational encirclement of Bakhmut. For operational reasons such details are not usually reported publicly. When the city has been taken, you will certainly learn about that," said Prigozhin on the Telegram channel of his press service on Wednesday.
http://tass.com/politics/1570085

"Russia is losing this war."

Weren't you bragging about Ukraine capturing Dibrova and this big attack on Kreminna?

Dibrova was captured 4 days ago and Russians are continuing westward towards Lyman...
http://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1621270874891452418/photo/1
http://satellites.pro/Ukraine_map#49.035673,38.078442,13
http://youtu.be/fKOiopNWDZw?t=31

I guess the western sources maps aren't showing this.
It did take Ukraine 2 weeks before they admitted they lost Soledar I suppose.
Ive seen some good footage of a Terminator opening up on Ukrainian forces in the forest near Kreminna though.
http://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1618624056877797377
You wouldn't want to be standing in front of that.
Here's a bit of heavy flamethrower as an extra bonus.
http://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1619767991306182656

As for the people being dragged away you can't see any uniforms, only what stated, so I'll accept your argument and doubts.

AC

Once again you are posting complete BS. The Russians do not as yet have fire control over all the access points to Bahkmut, they have not captured Dibrova and they are nowhere near heading for Lyman.

I remember you saying that they were going to encircle the Ukrainians at Izyum. Once again you are wrong.

Hi shadowminister,
"I remember you saying that they were going to encircle the Ukrainians at Izyum. Once again you are wrong."
- Well maybe it's a bit soon to be talking about Lyman, but they are making progress in that direction.
I'm not sure I said what you quoted, but I probably did say (after Wagner PMG took Soledar) that soon it would be Bakhmut, Siversk, Lyman, Izyum.
I got Krasna Hora wrong, that's not yet fully captured, but it's only a matter of time.

Russians may have gone on a new offensive by this time next week after the ground has fully frozen, there's only a day or so left according to weather reports, but no-one knows what Russians is planning, - where and when.

Hi AC,

If you feel so strongly about the Russians - what
are you doing here - why not move there and you can
then give them your total support? Actually living
there for a while and experiencing things first-hand
would do you the world of good. It might even re-educate
you. So how about putting your money where your mouth is?

Please go - they really would appreciate a warrior
like you over there.

Alternatively, once you have experienced living
under the Russians - you can then go and fight
in the Ukraine and you can tell us about it once (and if)
you come back! There's a good chap! They tell you that the
Gulags are a great holiday destination.

Hey Foxy,
Typical leftist, want to cancel my right to speak freely, because she doesn't like me undermining her war against Putin.

I haven't been disrespectful to you, but the moment you imply I have no right to an opinion, that is the moment both you and your family who were given an opportunity for a new life in this country should go back to Lithuania, because you've worn out your welcome.
My family's been here since around 1800 and I have a tiny bit of indigenous in me, and my Great Grandfather won a Distinguished Service Medal for the 1st Australian Light Horse Regiment, earning me the right to say whatever the hell I want about this country.

By equal measure why don't you ship off to Ukraine and join the International Legion of Territorial Defense?
You always have to get snippy, it shows the type of person you really are.

Hi AC,

Why are you so defensive about who you support?
I'm not questioning your right to free speech -
just wondering why you're not doing more if you
feel so strongly. As for what your family has contributed
to this country? Mine has contributed just as much in
blood, sweat, and tears. And they are just as entitled to
be here as yours are even though may have come here
earlier.

As for us going back to Lithuania? Lithuania is the land
of our ancestors. Our lives and loyalties belong to
Australia. We have done what we could to help that country
get its independence. As for the Ukraine - we also have
made donations to their cause.

What have you don to help the Russian cause that you so firmly
believe in - apart from blabbering on the web?

That's why I was suggesting that you could perhaps do more.

As for my character. I'll match mine with yours any day of
the week old chap.

BTW:

My family was INVITED to come to this country and settle
here. They fulfilled their 2 year contracts fully and
helped build this nation's infrastructure. They have earned
their right to be here and have paid for it fully. Without
them this country would still be the cultural backwater it
was when they first arrive.

You're welcome!

- More on the discussion of civilians dragged off the street and sent to the front;
Apparently there's an article in the Guardian that talks about reports that Ukrainians are being conscripted in the street.
I haven't found the article itself yet, but if it was false, they'd deny it outright.

Meanwhile the Guardian (a Pro-Ukrainian source) reports that Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov states Russia has 500,000 mobilised troops on Ukraine's border.

(They only started with 190K + 50K Wagner PMG + fighters for the DPR and LPR and Chechens.)

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/russia-major-new-offensive-to-mark-one-year-anniversary-ukraine-war

"Speaking to French media, Reznikov warned that Russia would call on a large contingent of mobilised troops. Referring to Russia’s general mobilisation of 300,000 conscripted soldiers in September last year, he claimed that numbers at the border suggest the true size could be closer to 500,000."

Maybe you lot had better start preparing for more bad news?

Personally I wonder if Russia should blow up all bridges across the Dnieper at Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, and send a force south from slightly West of Kharkiv towards Dnipro, and another force north along the Dnieper through Zaporizhzhia region and meet in the middle, and cut the entire UAF in the east off entirely.
- But no-one knows Russians plans and I'm not a military strategist.

Hi Foxy,
"What have you don to help the Russian cause that you so firmly
believe in - apart from blabbering on the web?"

How many times do I have to state my position?
I support the Russians by DEFAULT, because I don't support the Wests endless wars.
I don't support economic sanctions (collective punishment) or regime changes.
I'd rather a multipolar world where countries show mutual respect for each other than a Unipolar world where the West rules by threats, blackmail, regime change and military intervention.

Respect is a 2 way street, if you don't give it to others you can't expect to get it in return;
- And maybe on a personal level that's something you should also learn.

Foxy,

Why these Putin fanciers believe whatever is put out by Russian propaganda channels I can't fathom especially after it is wrong so frequently.

Unless Putin is completely stupid, he cannot believe that he is winning this war. He is now simply throwing thousands of poorly trained conscripts across open fields into the teeth of machine guns and artillery with predictable results. Every month his army gets weaker as planes helicopters tanks etc are lost at a rate that cannot be replaced while Ukraine continually gets increasingly sophisticated weapons.

Similarly, every month the world tightens the noose strangling Russia's economy and revenue whilst giving Ukraine $bns in financial and humanitarian aid over and above the weapons.

The only strategy that I can think that Putin could be following is like a desperate gambler he's going all-in in the hope that the other party will blink and that he will be in a better position at the negotiating table. However, on the other side, the US and the EU see this as an opportunity like Afghanistan on steroids to smash Russia's military to the point that it will take decades to recover. And used it as an opportunity to empty their stockpiles of redundant weapons that are more than equal to what Russians are using. The satellite data lets Ukraine know exactly what the Russians are doing to extract the maximum damage to Russia's military.

This is not a war that Russia can win.

shadowminister,

Thank You.

I sincerely hope that you are right!

As do freedom-loving people everywhere.
Especially the ones who have lived under and experienced
life under the Soviet Regime.

p.s.

The US has just announced another $475m in weapons supplies and $1.75bn in aid. More armoured vehicles, 250 javelins, anti-aircraft defences etc.

Ukraine can’t retake Crimea soon, Pentagon tells lawmakers in classified briefing
http://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/01/ukraine-crimea-russia-pentagon-00080799

"Unless Putin is completely stupid, he cannot believe that he is winning this war. He is now simply throwing thousands of poorly trained conscripts across open fields into the teeth of machine guns and artillery with predictable results. Every month his army gets weaker as planes helicopters tanks etc are lost at a rate that cannot be replaced while Ukraine continually gets increasingly sophisticated weapons."

Go ahead and keep drinking the Kool-aid Shadowminister if that's what you choose
But it will be that much worse when it all falls apart, that you were buying into Western propaganda, which won't be too long by the look of things.

Ukrainians are desperately trying to establish new defensive lines before they withdraw from Bakhmut and Siversk.
I hear that Ukraine is starting to have a problem with it's troops committing suicide.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/russian-forces-could-regain-initiative-as-ukraine-war-drags-on

"There is also anxiety in political circles about how long the existing frontline troops in Ukraine’s military – however committed they have been – can be asked to carry on fighting without a long break. A concern about the level of suicide among Ukrainian soldiers 'as a result of battlefield stress' was raised last month by the UK Conservative MP Iain Duncan Smith after he visited a military hospital near Kharkiv."

- Meanwhile Russia has half a million fresh troops ready to go.
And remember nothing the West gives to Ukraine will result in a capability that Russians don't already have.

PUTIN'S 500,000 TROOP ASSAULT 'GAINS WORLD'S ATTENTION'

ZERO HOUR How Putin is preparing massive assault with ‘500,000 men on two fronts’ – and Ukraine think they know the EXACT date
http://www.the-sun.com/news/7287999/putin-new-assault-ukraine-date/

- I'm not sure it's sensible for Russia to cross the Dnieper just yet, but as I explained earlier I'm not a military strategist.

shadowminister,

We need to question such a strong support of a Russian tyrant
who's invaded another country, in an attempt to restore the
previous empire.

A sovereign country, Ukraine, and is now killing its people
and sacrificing so many of his own.

Questions need to be asked - and not be diverted with the
pretext of it being an infringement of "freedom of speech"
to question. Followed by accusations and suggestions
of disloyalty to one's own country by questioning.
It all amounts to diversion. Wind and mirrors.

My father suggested a long time ago - that anyone
supporting the Soviet Regime and its dictators should
actually go and live under that regime so that
these people could become
aware of who and what they are supporting so overwhelmingly.
My parents could not possibly support something they had
experienced and from which they had fled.

It is concerning however that someone whose family has
supposedly lived in this country for generations,
And whose relatives have supposedly fought for
freedom is now supporting an evil dictator who wants to
re-instate a previous regime that will continue to subjugate
people. How can that be?

We need to ask - where does their
real loyalty lie - and to whom?
Certainly not to freedom and human rights, and the sovereignty
of nations.

AC,

Using the SUN as your information source? and then cocking it up.

Russia has 350 000 troops on the front line including most of the recently mobilized and another 150 000 poorly trained and equipped conscripts if you read the article, not 500 000 fresh soldiers. This might make an impact until the 321 tanks (and now an additional 90 leopard 1s) plus the 100s of armoured vehicles make their appearance in Ukraine.

As for matching capabilities, Russia has nothing to match the HIMARS, the Leopard 2 or the Abrams tanks. With the new 150km range HIMARS ammo Ukraine can begin hitting infrastructure in Russia.

As for Kool aid, it looks as though you have been swallowing the Russian bullsh1t for a year.

Putin’s approval rating ends 2022 at 81%, boosted by support for the war in Ukraine
http://www.intellinews.com/putin-s-approval-rating-ends-2022-at-81-boosted-by-support-for-the-war-in-ukraine-265628/

Guardian Essential poll: Albanese approval rating dips in sign of gruelling political year ahead
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/24/guardian-essential-poll-albanese-approval-rating-dips-in-sign-of-gruelling-political-year-ahead
"The first Guardian Essential poll for 2023 shows voter approval of the prime minister dipped from 60% in December to 55% in January – which is Albanese’s lowest result since last August. Voter approval of the prime minister had been steady during the last quarter of 2022, ranging between 59% and 60%.

Albanese’s approval slide is accompanied by a four-point rise in voter disapproval. In December, 27% of Guardian Essential respondents disapproved of the prime minister’s performance, and that increased to 31% in January."

I've explained my position many times Foxy, and I'm tired of wasting my time with you on this topic.
I think I'll just have to accept that my reasoning is simply beyond the comprehension of your cold war hangover mentality.
Either 116 million Russians love war and want to reconquer the former Soviet countries, or there's something you just don't comprehend.

AC,

Russians do not want to re-conquer anyone. It's
Mr Putin who does. The Russians are not given freedom
of choice. Their freedoms are dictated by Mr Putin.
Any any opposition to him is dealt with in the usual
manner.

As for my comprehension? Yours appears to be the one
lacking. Either that or it's a falsified one and you get
off on purposely stirring. Which I suspect you do.
And I'm glad to oblige. (smile).

Seems to me you're both hell-bent on embarking on an adventure that surely leads to nuclear war with Russia or China.
I'd like to think that when it happens (because it will if you both have your way)
That you both would say to yourselves "What have we done?"
- But I'm starting to think you're both too stupid on this particular topic for that.

Instead of criticising me;

[like you think you're obliged to do Foxy, following me around with your nose in my bum for the good of all mankind, when you admittedly don't have any clue to my motivations]

How about you both realistically explain how the path you're supporting ends happily ever after and not in nuclear war?
Have either of you actually fully thought this through, and the potential repercussions?

What realistic course of events do you both see playing out that results in the end of the Russian Empire, and the CCP?
How many people ARE GOING TO HAVE TO DIE so that you can get an outcome that's acceptable to you both?
What outcome exactly do you want?

Is what you stand to gain worth what you stand to lose?
Why don't you both cut the crap and explain your reasoning?

As for the previous article shadowminister, I only read a couple of paragraphs.
- But it's good to know that you did, and were concerned enough to look.
If I've gotten something wrong, then who cares, I'll GLADLY accept it.
My humility is the absolute least of what's really at stake here.

Explain to me how your reasoning ends in happily ever after.
You want the Russian-speaking people in Donbass to go back under Ukrainian rule so that Zelensky will slaughter them all?
You want a NATO naval base in Crimea?

You want the USA to start a nuclear war with Russia and China?
Because you don't believe the people in Donbass have a right to self determination?
Because you fear that China with 5 times as many people as the US might overtake them economically and militarily?
Explain it to me.

Armchair Critic,

A couple of things.

Firstly - I don't have a "cold war hangover mentality."
What I am opposed to strongly is the "hot war" that is
currently going on which started with a tyrant invading
a sovereign nation. Which you think we should allow to
prevent a nuclear war. So give the tyrant what he wants!

This is a mentality that has not changed over the decades.
Certainly not in Russia - and not from an ambitious
ex KGB apparatchik like Putin - which apparently is
beyond your comprehension.

Putin will not win this war. He will destroy Russia.
The sooner the Russian people wake up to this fact the
better all round. We cannot allow tyrants to win in their
attempted threat of nuclear war. That is something
humanity can not afford to do. And your support and suggestion
that we allow this to happen - is truly shameful.

Armchair Critic,

BTW: Putin's allegations of Ukraine's committing
genocide against Russians is an example of how
genocide claims are misused for political reasons.
In this case Putin is misappropriating the term to justify
invading Ukraine.

His claims as experts have shown are baseless and
fabricated serving only to justify a military
intervention.

There's more at:

http://theconversation.com/putins-claims-that-ukraine-is-committing-genocide-are-baseless-but-not-unprecedented-177511

AC,

You can go on spouting Putin's propaganda
on this forum. As far as I am concerned you have lost
all credibility.

AC,

Now you are just sounding delusional. Here are some Facts:

-Ukraine was never slaughtering Russians in the Donbas or anywhere else.
-Ukraine is not a Nazi regime, it has a Jewish President.
-There are as many Wagner soldiers with swastika tattoos as any of the Ukrainian soldiers.
- Russia would never be stupid enough to use Nukes as it would end very badly for them and Putin does not want to die.

Russia for years has been running a large budget surplus and building up a wealth chest. With the war in Ukraine, half the wealth fund has been frozen, and Russia is running a huge budget deficit. Its oil and gas revenues have collapsed, and Putin is dipping into the wealth fund which is not expected to last the year. The Russian car industry has nearly collapsed, and the Russian airline industry is starting to run out of spares.

The number of tanks now pledged to Ukraine incl the Leopard 1 tank is nearly 500. The first leopard 2 tanks are now arriving. The US is considering sending its old M60 tanks which while obsolete can still kill a t72. There are 1000s in storage.

The Russian situation is like the frog in a pot as the water is heated.

"The number of tanks now pledged to Ukraine incl the Leopard 1 tank is nearly 500. The first leopard 2 tanks are now arriving. The US is considering sending its old M60 tanks which while obsolete can still kill a t72. There are 1000s in storage."

Yeah, good luck Ukraine, they'll need it.
Russian economy has predicted growth this year by the IMF, so your sanctions failed.
The mobilised troops you said were poorly trained, are actually people with past military experience who've now had months and months of training in preparation.
Ukrainians are grabbing people off the street and at funerals and sending them to the front, men, 40, 50 and 60yo including handicapped people, - as cannon fodder while they keep their better trained troops back.
- And after this scrounged up military that has been patched together on the fly (which will be a turkey shoot without air cover, and which I might add it takes 35 months to train an existing pilot to fly an F-16) - there will be little to nothing from the west left.
Not to mention the maintenence issues of these assets and the Wests military industrial incapacity and shortage of key items such as javelin, stingers etc.

Russian forces attack across entire front; breakthrough across river at Hrekivka
http://youtu.be/xWlVXEkS_OU

http://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1621991285010694144

They're making further inroads towards Lyman and Siversk
Ukraines defenses are starting to break, and Russia hasn't even sent its other force yet.

Withdrawl from Bakhmut?
http://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1621983379099901952
http://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1621999653041410053

"Zelensky is a Jew"
So is the Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal
And the Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov
And the Head of the Office of the President Andrii Yermak

And the Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki
- But that didn't stop him sending German tanks to supporters of Stepan Bandera.
http://visegradpost.com/en/2023/01/10/ukraines-bandera-commemorations-going-down-badly-with-poland/

Ukrainian Parliament, Army Leadership Celebrate Birthday of the Fascist Mass Murderer Bandera
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/01/05/jnwx-j05.html

Ukrainian Military Chief Photographed with Far-Right Paraphernalia
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/10/15/ckti-o15.html

Not to mention Right Sector, Svoboda or Azov.
- Not hard to look that up yourself

AC,

"ALMATY. Feb 3 (Interfax) - The International Monetary Fund's new forecast for the Russian economy, projecting that GDP will grow by 0.3% in 2023, points to the Fund's recognition of obvious things, but the dynamic of the economy will depend on credit stimulus and the recovery of consumer demand, Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov told reporters in Almaty on Friday."

As any economist will tell you, you can keep up growth by injecting money into economies with huge stimulus. In Russia, this is coming from the vast expenditure on the war in Ukraine which comes from the wealth fund that Putin built up. However, this wealth fund is limited and the rate that it is being drawn from it will be nearly gone by the end of 2023. From this will not be built any infrastructure so desperately needed in Russia.

The EU ban and price cap on oil and the EU ban and price cap on refined products have reduced Russia's revenue by about US$500m per day which is in the ballpark of Russia's budget deficit.

For the status of Russia's aviation industry:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rfw36TxC2Ks&ab_channel=MilitaryAviationHistory

Secondly, most of what you posted about Stepan Bandera was Russian propaganda and his supporters are a minority in Ukraine. Also, the massacre that the Russians try to pin on him occurred while he was in a Nazi concentration camp for trying to liberate Ukraine from German occupation from 1941 to the end of the war.

The Russian attempts to paint Ukrainians as Nazi sympathizers are complete bullshite.

"Russia would never be stupid enough to use Nukes as it would end very badly for them and Putin does not want to die."

Don't be so sure.
It has a nuclear doctrine which stipulate their use.
(You're hoping they are 'scared' when in truth Russia doesn't give a crap what the west does anymore, they will respond to whatever situation arises if they must)
If we cross these lines in regard to Russian military doctrine then we're doing so at our own peril.
You really think a nuclear power like Russia will go quietly into the night without using all they have available to them?

They did that once already.
They trusted the West not to push NATO further eastwards.
It won't happen twice.

Putin has been opposing the West in it's attempt to ring-fence it for 14years.
He told them if Ukraine moved to join NATO it would take Crimea.
But the West wants NATO in Crimea to deprive Russia on a Naval base there.

President of Kazakhstan, Belarus and even Turkey were at one point much more accommodating towards the west.

When the United States foreign policy of threats, blackmail, regime change and military intervention were used against these people, they aligned more with Russia.

Even in the last week, many countries in Europe have closed their embassies in Turkey? (That's the blackmail part)
Now the US is saying there will be more terrorist attacks in Turkey.
(more blackmail, leading to a regime change - didn't they already try that in 2016)
- Simply because Erdogan says No to Swedish NATO membership.
(who themselves have a weird bromance with Finland who won't join without them)
- Enraging John Bolton.
(who's still screaming 'regime-change' for Russia)
Because he knows Ukraine is not going to win on the battlefield, and so does anyone else that looks at the current situation.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that (nukes)

Send your old broken tanks that need refurbishment and a 2000klm round trip to Poland when they break, which they will.
Send your old clapped out F-16's, it's not going to make any difference.

UK MoD Bakhmut Isolated, EU Struggles to Find Tanks, Russia Massively Increases Arms Production
http://youtu.be/TAJe3eCgk7U

Meanwhile the West is dying.
Russia's economy is expected to grow faster the Britains or Germanys.
- Nice job shooting oneself in both feet.

Too busy focused on trying to harm another country than doing the best for their own people.
- This is why the west is going down the toilet.

Run by maniacs, with idiot bureaucrats behind them.
- And feeble minded citizens following close behind.

The US dollar collapse is coming w/Peter Schiff, Alexander Mercouris and Glenn Diesen
http://youtu.be/tPxQs7gOMSo

Neocon failures w/Robert Barnes (Live)
http://www.youtube.com/live/j9ztagziE3U?feature=share
(This last video should be right up your alley, you do support Trump right?)

AC,

The tanks that Ukraine is getting are far superior to the T72 variants. Ukraine with modern anti-aircraft systems has been swatting the Russian fighters and helicopters out of the air so your boast of them being destroyed by the Russian air force is laughable.

The Russian doctrine until now is that Nukes will not be used unless there is a direct attack on Russia. Using even a small nuke will bring Nato into Ukraine and Russia's army will be rapidly destroyed and Putin will get a bullet.

The west's economy is doing better than Russia's and Russia's is just a sugar high until they run out of money.

The hamlet of Hrekivka population 53 has zero strategic value.

Ukrainian forces are still on the boundary of Kreminna.

As for w/Peter Schiff, Alexander Mercouris and Glenn Diesen their only outstanding feature is being wrong 100% of the time.

Ukraine lost between 500 and 1000 men in the last 24 hours.
It was the worst day for them for losses in at least 3 months.
If you hate Ukrainians so much then keep supporting the continuation of this war for the sake of a NATO base in Crimea and lines on a map.
Neither Putin nor the Russian people are going to give up Crimea, and they may well resort to nuclear weapons if this looks like a possibility, which even US analysts do not.
Keep escalating with longer range weapons and Russia will have have to take more territory to keep the people of the Donbass safe from harm.

Do you understand this?
This isn't about you and me bickering shadowminister.
At least 500 human beings, at a minimum on your side dead since yesterday.
People dragged off the street, older men 40, 50 and 60+ years old, handicapped people and now 16 and 17 year olds,
- Now nothing more than statistics.

That's what's being reported.
Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.02.05
http://youtu.be/hb-uI8YnmR4

It's been claiamed the average lifespan of an untrained Ukrainian soldier in Bakhmut is 4 hours.
Zelensky refuses to strategically withdraw any troops, he has a political motive, he said after Mariupol that Russia would not take another city.
He is literally throwing lives away to buy time, when nothing is going to change the eventual outcome anyway.

And remember, I don't lie though sometimes I make mistakes.
Everything I've told you someone else more informed than me said it first.

"The Russian doctrine until now is that Nukes will not be used unless there is a direct attack on Russia."
Crimea has been a part of Russia for 8 years, there's a red line there.
They are not going to lose their naval base in Sevastopol.
I'd say try it and see what happens, but this is not an outcome I want.

AC,

These figures are from the Russian MOD which always wildly exaggerates, and I have given you some extreme examples. And considering the Russians are trying to storm heavily fortified positions their casualties are usually much higher.

The Ukrainians are also not going to give up expelling the invaders from their territory which the world accepts includes all the Donbas and Crimea. And if Russia wants to stop the stream of body bags going back to Russia it will abandon its imperial invasion. As for Crimea, they are certainly going to try it. (The factory making spans to repair the Kerch bridge has just been destroyed)

PS. The US has just announced another $2.1bn of high-tech weaponry to Ukraine.

We've already been through this, all things being equal both sides are likely to fiddle with the numbers at least a little.
We can only try our best to make sense of it, with respect given to the sources we use to get those numbers.

This below is the best estimate on the Russian side, but these figures are 2 months old, source is the BBC.

"BBC notes that, by the most conservative estimates, the real number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine may exceed 20,000, and the total number of irretrievable losses could be as high as 90,000."

http://meduza.io/en/news/2022/12/09/bbc-and-mediazona-confirm-10-000-russian-soldiers-dead-in-ukraine

Take it anyway you wish, but that's not 100K Russian KIA.
If there were that many there would be a lot more anger and pushback inside Russia.
- But take note, this number is far closer to the figures that I've been telling you for weeks than the numbers Ukraine is claiming.
- Also note that the same people that I got those figures from weeks ago, say Ukraine has little chance of success in Crimea, or winning this conflict.

Also their were allegations from a supposed Ukrainian soldier that claimed Ukraine was now using chemical weapons.
- I'm not stating it as fact, just saying that claims are out there.
It's in the video below.

Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.02.06
http://youtu.be/aDV8PFA_7Z4

AC,

You have a bunch of pro-Russian shills lying wildly about the Russian casualties, and as always predicting a Russian victory. I thought you would have learnt by now.

The US MOD estimates that the Russian casualties incl severely wounded close to 200 000. That Russia is banning families from posting notices about their dead family shows how desperately Russia is trying to cover up their wasted soldiers and mothers' sites have been restricted.

Russia's new offensive is proceeding at a snail's pace with horrendous casualties and loss of equipment. In the meantime, the first of the 500+ tanks are arriving with long-range missiles many new Howitzers tons of ammunition etc. It is expected that by year-end Ukraine will have F16s that are superior to the SU35s.

Russia is running out of tanks, aircraft, helicopters, men, money and above all time.

"You have a bunch of pro-Russian shills lying wildly about the Russian casualties, and as always predicting a Russian victory. I thought you would have learnt by now."

No matter what information is presented to you, you won't listen.
Why don't we go over to the DoD website that details what's in the latest package, but first we'll look at an article from Bloomberg.

US to Send Ukraine Boeing’s Ground-Launched, GPS-Guided Bombs
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-03/us-to-send-ukraine-boeing-s-ground-launched-gps-guided-bombs
- Dated 3rd Feb.

"The long-range hybrid weapon combines two proven devices: an Air Force Small-Diameter Bomb guided by GPS satellites that’s currently in wide use and an Army rocket already being operated by Ukraine’s forces. Like some other equipment provided by the US and allies, it won’t be deployed in Ukraine anytime soon: An industry official said it would take about nine months for the first deliveries once the Air Force issues a contract.

Funding for the precision-guided rockets would come from $1.75 billion in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative expected to be announced Friday."

- 9 MONTHS AFTER THE AIR FORCE ISSUES A CONTRACT.

So, if you're not asking yourself - what the hell is the 'Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative', then you should be.

- The devil's in the details here:

Let's now go over to the DoD.

http://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3287992/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
- Dated 3rd Feb.

"Unlike Presidential Drawdown, USAI is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities from industry rather than delivering equipment that is drawn down from DoD stocks. This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional capabilities to Ukraine's Armed Forces as part of our efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s military over the near and long-term."

Now look for precision-guided rockets, see it there under USAI?

What does it mean?

- It means the precision-guided rockets haven't even been manufactured yet.

"The US MOD estimates that the Russian casualties incl severely wounded close to 200 000. That Russia is banning families from posting notices about their dead family shows how desperately Russia is trying to cover up their wasted soldiers and mothers' sites have been restricted."

- They are simply stating the numbers the Ukrainian government states, which are completely false.
This is to give the impression that Ukraine is giving as good as it's getting, but it's all a lie to keep western citizens supporting the war, and also to maintain Ukrainian armed forces troop morale.

No matter what I or anyone says, you're the one that just won't listen.
Keep drinking the kool-aid, move along nothing to see here.
When all is said and done, you'll be the one having to face up to some harsh realities.
All you're doing is supporting the wholesale slaughter of Ukrainians.
- That's the ugly truth that you just don't want to hear.

Russia still has plenty up it's sleeve.
What happens when they fully mobilise?
There will be another million Russians going in to fight, that's what.
- If it comes to that.

http://twitter.com/GonzaloLira1968/status/1622503188405297152
http://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1622694678620475404
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1622308754409799680
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1622597922289504258

Meanwhile...

China INVENTS Hypersonic generator to power unimaginable weapons.
US INVENT Equity Diversity Inclusion
http://youtu.be/BO4dPl0Ua_o

AC,

I do listen, the difference is that my BS filter is working.

For example, The figures the Ukrainians give are 140 000 Russians killed and about 200 000 wounded which is twice what the US estimates using Satellite imaging etc so they are certainly more accurate than the BS you cite from Russian propaganda.

The sources you cite seem to be wrong 100% of the time. The mobilised forces are 90% civilians with zero military training or experience with many over 40yrs old, given ancient weapons and no protection. They are forced to fight with soldiers set behind them to shoot them if they try to retreat.

The Ukrainians are more than holding their own with the Russian human waves losing up to 1000 Russians killed every day. On top of that these attacks expose Russian tanks to ATGMs and mines.
Russia has thrown everything into this attack and risks losing everything.
As for the Russian superweapons, the SU57 is a joke and is less stealthy than the decades-old F117 and only 10 prototypes that are not battle ready. The Amata tank is in a similar state and often requires to be towed. The Kinsel missile is a plane-mounted ballistic missile that is lucky if it hits the right postcode.

As far as hypersonic missiles the reason the US fell behind was that they were banned by the arms treaty that only the US adhered to. Considering that the US was flying a hypersonic aircraft in the 60s they will catch up and overtake quickly.

Already they have successfully tested their first missile. But what Russia and China should be wary of is the latest upgrade to the decades-old Harpoon missile (that sunk the Moskva) which is a supersonic stealth missile.

Things aren't looking too good for the Ukrainians in Bakhmut right now.

Bigger & more aggressive pincer developing around Bakhmut City
http://youtu.be/r3Uy-kHH4Pk

I told you a few days ago their defensive lines were about to break.
http://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1623289053612310528

Vladimir Putin is about to make shock gains
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/07/vladimir-putin-make-shock-gains/

If you want to get around the paywall, you'll have to right-click and 'inspect the elements' on the page, find the 'settings' and 'disable javascript'.
(Many thanks to whichever OLO forum poster showed me that some months back)

The huge Russian offensive. Russia prepares 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 400 jets, troops.
http://youtu.be/TjsC5lqM1AI

AC,

This looks like Russia's last hurrah.

From statistics published in Russia:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/russias-jan-budget-deficit-widens-energy-revenues-slump-2023-02-06/

Russia's budget deficit soars to around $25 bln in Jan
Energy revenues are down 46.5%, total revenues slump 35.1%
Spending jumped almost 60% in Jan year-on-year

"Citing preliminary data, Russia's finance ministry said on Monday oil and gas revenues were 46.4% lower at 426 billion roubles in January than in the same month last year, which it put down primarily to lower prices for Russia's Urals blend and lower volumes of natural gas exports."

The battles in Bakhmut and Vukledar are seeing massive human waves of mobilized cannon fodder being massacred, Russian tanks and armoured vehicles being destroyed in minefields and by dug-in Ukrainian tanks.

This is the battle of the bulge version 2

Russia is dying

Hi shadowminister,
Yes I know about the January deficit.
And I also know about the losses at Vuledar.

As for the January deficit, that's just a one month issue and may not be indicative of the full years economic situation, as I understand there were extra costs relating to the war effort and upcoming offensive.
Russia has 600bln in foreign reserves.

They've now made some progress of Vuledars western flank.
It was known in advance that taking the place was going to be costly but I think there some kind of military debacle that 31 tanks and IFV's were lost.
Overall, Ukraine's not really in a good situation right now.

AC,

In January, the oil and gas revenues dropped by 46% compared to Jan 22. With the ban on refined products starting from Feb 5, things are only going to get worse, and with secondary sanctions starting soon, no one is going to want to trade with Russia.

Secondly, $300bn of Russia's $600bn was frozen in the west. Russia has about $140bn left available which at the present rate will run out in July.

The Ukrainians have been preparing for this assault for months and the Russians are attaching well-prepared fortification replete with anti-aircraft missiles and artillery.

1000s of Russians running through prepared killing fields replete with mines is not good for Russia who are losing more than 1000 soldiers killed a day with plenty of burning tanks and armour.

I believe that Russia is now begging 3rd parties to start negotiations.

"In January, the oil and gas revenues dropped by 46% compared to Jan 22."

I'm not sure this is the full picture, as Russian intermediary companies are charging a lot more than the current Urals spot price and because Russia has found ways around the sanctions the true economic situation may not be actually well understood.
- Some of it is kind of off-the books in a black hole I think, and then at the same time I think the gas component of their current revenue is significant.
- As well as this you must take into account the Chinese economy is only just starting up again, and there will likely be increased volumes ahead not decreased volumes.

"1000s of Russians running through prepared killing fields replete with mines is not good for Russia who are losing more than 1000 soldiers killed a day with plenty of burning tanks and armour."
- I don't think it's reasonable to suggest that Russia has some 350K dead, (at 1000 per day) I think it's extremely fanciful, and Putin would be facing a lot of pressure at home if this was the case.
If you were to add in X 3 for casualties, (standard calculation) then what you're suggesting is that Russia has conservatively taken 1 million in both KIA and wounded.

Did you see the leaked Mossad report from Turkey recently?
I may not have mentioned it because it can't really be verified, but those numbers are staggering on the Ukrainian side, something like 160K dead Ukrainians and 20K Russians, with claims Russia has destroyed 50+ % of all Ukrainian forces.
- And if they really are dragging teenagers and old men off the street to send on a suicide mission to Bakhmut to buy time so they can create a new line of defense, then it's not at all a good situation for them.

This discussion of chemical weapons use by Ukraine has been starting to do the rounds.
http://www.youtube.com/live/ziK3d5q2uDU?feature=share&t=2320

AC,

Firstly, the figures quoted were from official Russian documents. Secondly, no one is going to sneak around Western sanctions to pay more for oil. Thirdly, the EU was about 80% of Russia's gas market and took the gas via pipeline. Russia does not have the means to liquefy enough gas to make up for the loss of the EU market.

Fourthly, Bogus "leaked documents" are one of the most common scams, and the figures you quote are wildly ridiculous and demonstrate your naivety.

Russia's new offensive has had an awfully slow start gaining tiny amounts of land for huge losses in men and equipment most of which they cannot replace, whereas Ukraine is getting nearly 600 tanks now and a nearly equal number of other armoured vehicles along with $bns in other heavy weapons.

Ukraine now has a standing army of 700 000 with 2000 000 volunteers waiting in the wings, with NATO training and equipping about another 30 000 per month. This is not a war that Russia can win. The people being forcibly conscripted is probably in Russia.

Hi shadowminister,
"Firstly, the figures quoted were from official Russian documents. Secondly, no one is going to sneak around Western sanctions to pay more for oil."

I read it an an article a few days back, it would take me time to find the article.

"Thirdly, the EU was about 80% of Russia's gas market and took the gas via pipeline. Russia does not have the means to liquefy enough gas to make up for the loss of the EU market."

They don't need the Seimans turbines, they've developed their own
http://www.power-technology.com/news/russia-power-machines-turbine/
As well as this they've expanded and opened new gas fields in the far east, inc. new pipelines to China and new LNG tankers.

"Russia's new offensive has had an awfully slow start gaining tiny amounts of land for huge losses in men and equipment most of which they cannot replace, whereas Ukraine is getting nearly 600 tanks now and a nearly equal number of other armoured vehicles along with $bns in other heavy weapons."

It hasn't even begun yet, I think they want to break the Zelensky line which has been somewhat achieved; and to bed down their gains in Bakhmut first, which is now under operational encirclement with thousands of troops who can't get out without coming under Russian fire.
http://youtu.be/Tk-1ZsBxBic

Polish Lt. Colonel's Take on Upcoming Russian Major Offensive
http://youtu.be/DW86zSr-E1k

"Ukraine now has a standing army of 700 000 with 2000 000 volunteers waiting in the wings, with NATO training and equipping about another 30 000 per month. This is not a war that Russia can win."

The situation on the ground says otherwise, if that were true they wouldn't be begging for tanks, planes, IFV's, ammunition and resorting to chemical weapons;
- But if you say so there's no point in me trying to argue otherwise, we'll find out soon enough.

"The people being forcibly conscripted is probably in Russia." 'probably'?
http://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1624130857454735366
Russia has many reservists with prior military experience and no need to grab kids off the street.

Taking out bridges
http://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status/1624148504666050560

Significant missile and drone strikes overnight.
http://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1624144584644169751

Meanwhile...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/09/olaf-scholz-furious-minister-went-behind-back-ukraine-tanks/

[Cont]
Also, keep in mind that video I showed you from yesterday from the 'Redacted' youtube channel.

The discussion and videos associated with Ukraine using chemical weapons also coincided with Elon Musk making an announcement about Starlink.
- He was expected to foot an 80 million dollar bill per month, he tried to work towards a peace agreement that Ukraine was not interested in and had become complicit in war crimes in relation to chemical weapons attacks.

He's now cut Starlink support for Ukrainian drones.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/09/zelenskiy-aide-takes-aim-at-curbs-on-ukraine-use-of-starlink-to-pilot-drones-elon-musk

"Shotwell said Starlink was 'never, never meant to be weaponised' by Ukraine, although it cannot come as a surprise to the company as Kyiv’s military has been using it to pilot drones for months. 'Ukrainians have leveraged it in ways that were unintentional and not part of any agreement,' she added."

Here's the Sy Herch article about the Nord Stream pipline attacks
http://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream

Here's an article about Ukraine relying on US for it's HIMARS targetting:

Ukraine’s rocket campaign reliant on U.S. precision targeting, officials say
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/09/ukraine-himars-rocket-artillery-russia/

Here's the oil discussion article I meantioned earlier I had to look for:
http://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/business/russia-oil-embargo.html

>>Some oil experts say, however, that the steep discounts for Russian oil could partly be an illusion.

Using customs data from India, Mr. Vakulenko, the Russian oil expert, showed that local importers of Russian crude paid almost the same price as Brent crude. A New York Times analysis of the same data produced similar results.

The explanation, Mr. Vakulenko suggested, is that at least part of the large discount on the quoted Urals price had been pocketed by Russian exporters and intermediaries, who then charged a higher price to the buyers in India.

This revenue will not accrue directly to the Russian government in taxes, said Tatiana Mitrova, a Russian oil expert at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. But because the Russian exporters probably have close ties to the Kremlin, some of money might still support the war effort, she said.

“It’s a complete black box of funds,” she said.

Experts agree that in the longer term, the future of Russian oil revenues will be decided by global economic forces beyond the control of Western sanctions enforcers and Russian evaders.

They say global oil prices will remain the single biggest determinant of how much money the Kremlin will collect from a barrel of exported crude, despite the growing opacity of its trade.

And the fate of that price rests to a large extent on Russia’s ally China, whose economy is just beginning to emerge from years of strict Covid restrictions. In December, China’s imports of crude oil hit a record of 16.3 million barrels a day, according to estimates by Kpler, a firm that tracks energy shipping. If the trend continues, it will strain global oil supplies and benefit the Kremlin.<<

US and European arms suppliers cant keep up with 155mm ammunition
http://youtu.be/Tk-1ZsBxBic?t=2640

AC,

If the tankers are buying Russian Urals oil at $50/barrel which idiot is going to buy Russian oil at a higher price on purpose? That he could also face a ban from the black sea he would have to be a moron.

As for the Siemens turbine, any country can build one it is just that Siemens make the most cost-effective and efficient ones available today. Also this turbine is used for pipeline gas not LNG.

There is only one pipeline to China which took 10 years to build. It provides China with about 10% of what the EU was taking and is not supplying much more than before the war. Another pipeline is not due this decade.

Elon Musk is not paying $80m per month, it is closer to $20m. Also, he has not cut Starlink but is threatening to try and get payment from the US government.

Please don't link to Alexander Mercouris as he is an idiot with no clue what is happening on the ground. The US has just shipped in about 100 000 155mm shells and still has plenty of stockpiles.

Russia has a tiny window before the spring rains and mud and so far, they have made extraordinarily little progress with massive losses. Another battalion of tanks was destroyed at Vuhledar yesterday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nktftZgs1-I&ab_channel=TheMilitaryShow

"That he could also face a ban from the black sea he would have to be a moron."

I'm not sure what you mean, but no-ones going to ban Russia from the Black Sea, that's ridiculous, and also called WWIII

As for the oil, don't shoot the messenger.
Occasionally I get things out of context, but that's what it says.

Looks like I also got the Elon Musk thing wrong too, apparently up until Oct last year it cost him 80 million in total.
- But they certainly have stated that they've curbed the use of Starlink for Ukrainian drones.
http://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-curbed-ukraines-use-starlink-internet-drones-company-president-2023-02-09/

"Please don't link to Alexander Mercouris as he is an idiot with no clue what is happening on the ground."

Yeah ok fair enough, but as for what's happening on the ground I get my info from numerous different sources, many of which do originate from people fighting on the ground.
Several other youtube channels and twitter sources mostly.
The story about shortage of 155mm he stated was European news stating it if I recall correctly.
I do wish he'd add links in the video description to the articles he discusses, that way I wouldn't have to go digging.

"The US has just shipped in about 100 000 155mm shells and still has plenty of stockpiles."
How long will that last?
Maybe a few weeks at best?
And are they willing to continue to drawdown more from their own stockpile or instead issue new contracts?

"Russia has a tiny window before the spring rains and mud and so far, they have made extraordinarily little progress with massive losses. Another battalion of tanks was destroyed at Vuhledar yesterday."

Time is on their side, various articles have stated it even the RAND corporation released a report in January stating 'The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States'.
- But yes there is a current window while the ground is frozen.

Even I told you there was heavy losses in Vuhledar, that said there were later reports claiming many of the claimed tanks and IFVs actually made it to safety and it wasn't as bad as first reported.
http://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1623826157224222722

If the video was made 8 months ago it may seem more realistic, but a lot of things have changed since then.
It feels like he's clutching onto old narratives, good old washing machines saving the day... [rolls eyes]
Wheres the ghost of Kiev when you need him?

Those Leopard I Ukraine is getting are the equivalent of T-64's, and the channel makes fun of old 1960's hardware but that's exactly what Ukraine is using, the M113's are from 1961, U.S is sending them all its old junk.

According to Ukrainian sources Russia has 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armoured vehicles, 810 Soviet-era multiple-rocket-launch systems, 400 fighter jets, 300 helicopters and 2700 artillery systems ready for their coming offensive

- It's a Ukrainian source so they might be overstating to get western partners to move quickly and do more, but who knows.
But Russia's already making 20+ new T90M per month and revamping 70+ T-72B3M per month (featuring advanced fire control system and thermal sights) and is quickly increasing their production.
- Probably why they had a budget deficit in January getting old soviet production lines up and running again.

Also they've moved away from BTG's and gone back to old style large scale warfare - divisions and regiments etc I think.

Ukraine is going to cop it hard for at least the next few months, maybe they will manage to put something together in time, but the battlefield map will likely be a lot different by the time they do.

AC,

To address your posts:

Any ship that breaks the cap will its insurance and Turkey will not allow it into the black sea or any EU or US ports. Quite a disincentive.

As for 155mm howitzer shells, these are used and manufactured in 30 Nato countries and even more allied countries. The bottleneck in supply to Ukraine is logistics, not availability. The US stockpiles could supply Ukraine for years.

The t72 is a 50yr old design of a similar vintage to the leopard 1 (L1) of which Ukraine is getting about 200. The L1 is fast and manoeuvrable and has a 105mm high-velocity gun that will easily destroy a T72. The tanks Ukraine is getting have updated fire control and thermal imaging etc and can do a lot of damage. The L2 essentially has very heavy armour that can take a hit from a T72 and shrug it off.

As for Russia's manufacturing capacity, the 20 T90s a month is a drop in the ocean of what they need to replace the destroyed tanks, and the 70 T72s and T62s that are being refurbished are still not enough.

While the ground is still frozen in the north, in the south the ground is defrosting. The ground in the North is not expected to remain frozen for much more than a week or two.

While Russia has the equipment you mention, the tanks, AFVs etc are about half of what Russia started the war with, and storming Ukrainian positions bristling with javelins, NLAWS etc and virtually up-to-the-minute information from US satellites, the Russian losses in tanks etc are going to become epic.

While it is going to be tough for the Ukrainians, Russia is going to be bled dry.

"Any ship that breaks the cap will its insurance and Turkey will not allow it into the black sea or any EU or US ports. Quite a disincentive."

They don't need insurance from Lloyds
Russia has it's own insurance.
They have their own tankers, insurance and turbines.
The West tries to use these things as weapons, and just shoots itself in the foot, no more money for them.

IMF states Russian economy is growing faster than UK and Germany.
Sanctions aren't working.

"As for 155mm howitzer shells, these are used and manufactured in 30 Nato countries and even more allied countries. The bottleneck in supply to Ukraine is logistics, not availability."
Russia just took out the bridge from Romania into Odessa yesterday with an underwater drone cutting that supply line, and showing it's ability to destroy more bridges along the Dnieper.

"The US stockpiles could supply Ukraine for years."
Yes, (even manufacture by Rhinemetal in Nth QLD) and Russia is beating all 30 NATO countries.
- And - emphasis 'could'... But the US operates in many countries, it's not all Ukraine, and whether it's willing to drawdown on it's own stockpile or not is a bigger issue.
Russians blew up about a dozen Ukrainian ammo depots in the last 24hrs.
"The t72 is a 50yr old design of a similar vintage to the leopard 1"
No it's not, it's comparable to a T-64, and even ABRAMS is 40 years old, and there has been very few tank on tank battles during the war.

"As for Russia's manufacturing capacity, the 20 T90s a month is a drop in the ocean of what they need to replace the destroyed tanks, and the 70 T72s and T62s that are being refurbished are still not enough."

They're building and refurbishing that many every month.
They will have as many new ones built and refurbished, before Western supplies even get there, and Russia has 1800 for the upcoming offensive. Do the math.
Western supplies will be exhausted, and as for the ABRAMS, there are serious maintenence issues with them, they have jet engines, run on jet fuel, are too heavy for the mud, and need to be sent on a 2000klm trip when they break, which they will.
- Tankers who have used them say it takes a year training just to learn how not to break them.

"While the ground is still frozen in the north, in the south the ground is defrosting."
No, it's not defrosting.
http://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=Weather+donetsk

"While Russia has the equipment you mention, the tanks, AFVs etc are about half of what Russia started the war with..."

- Ukrainian forces don't even have much ammo supply, this is the reason they were able to move west of Krasna Hora.
- Seriously Ukrainians are facing annihilation there, and Russia's upcoming offensive will completely change the battlefield map.
- Maybe I'm wrong, but we'll see.

In the meantime, now they are trying to sanction us, and when I say 'us' I mean people like myself who follow and supporting the Russian perspective i.e 'Russian Propagandists'.
- This is how desperate they are becoming.
http://www.reuters.com/world/europe/new-eu-sanctions-will-target-putins-propagandists-von-der-leyen-says-2023-02-09/
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1624542157922250752

I watched a video last a few days back, showing how Russians were targeting citizens who opposed the war, what communists!
- Then they showed what the UK has been doing.

"Arrested for a social media post" | Konstantin Kisin
http://youtu.be/0r7GRx8Sl-s

Stupid cancel culture
The West are becoming a bunch of controlling paranoid lunatics.
Russia's resisting the western ways and the rules based order.
It's has now become the last bastion of liberty.

Why don't you go and look at what the West actually does that you support?
Originally titled 'Don't Lift sanctions on Syria to help Earthquake Victims'
by Wa'el Alzayat (Former US State Department)
http://archive.is/S58vA

The article tries to demonise Assad, then says don't sent money to them send it to us, so we can continue our war against Assad.

Then watch this video and hear what she says.

Dana Stroul, Biden official, boasts that Washington "owns" one third of Syria
http://youtu.be/FSE3FWKFp4g

- They specifically do not want Assad to have the ability to rebuild and want to deprive them of food and medicine, and their own resources .

It's evil what the West does, and you want the whole world built in this image, including cancel culture, wokeness, trans celebrations, endless pandemics, lockdowns and jibby-jabby, and Klaus Schwab?
Rules dictated by weak as piss yes men branch-managers-for-globalism like Albo who dance to others tunes?

He runs around the Mardi Gras parade making speeches and meeting people,
While in Alice Springs he took a quick meeting and ran away.
Hangs out arse-licking the Chinese, while Aussies suffer?

Turkey is now more closely aligned with Russia, btw.
Don't you know that a day before the earthquake, Eastern European countries closed at least 10 embassies there?
They don't want Erdogan being a mediator between Ukraine and Russia.
The West torpedoed the peace talks and they're infuriated that he's stopping Sweden from joining NATO.

AC,

Now you are getting hysterical and just reposting the factually incorrect drivel you did previously.

The reality is that sanctions are working and that Russia is losing the war. It is now losing nearly 1000 soldiers killed a day nearly 10 tanks per day and is now printing money to keep the economy going.

Turkey is sending arms and military hardware to Ukraine and here you are claiming that they are on Russia's side? Seriously?

This is Russia's final push before it culminates and sues for peace.

"The reality is that sanctions are working and that Russia is losing the war. It is now losing nearly 1000 soldiers killed a day nearly 10 tanks per day and is now printing money to keep the economy going."

- The strings on your violin are wearing really thin mate.

"Turkey is sending arms and military hardware to Ukraine and here you are claiming that they are on Russia's side? Seriously?"

Turkeys economy's haddit.
Erdogan plays both sides for whatever's in his best interest at the time.
I doubt he wants Ukrainian terrorist attacks messing up tourism, and where else is he going to get fighter jets from if the West doesn't go through with the deal.
How is he going to fix his economy without the Russian gas hub deal?

John Bolton: Turkiye should be expelled from NATO for 'not acting like an ally'
http://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230118-john-bolton-turkiye-should-be-expelled-from-nato-for-not-acting-like-an-ally/
Erdogan says Western embassies will ‘pay’ for temporary closures
http://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/erdogan-says-western-embassies-will-pay-for-temporary-closures/

And don't forget the US tried to overthrow him in a coup in 2016.
- I'm sure he hasn't forgotten that, or that the US supports the Kurds.

http://www.newsweek.com/us-orchestrating-covert-terror-attacks-inside-russia-foreign-intelligence-claims-1780836

- Watch the Jens Stoltenberg video in the article:

NATO Warns That Ukraine's War Is 'Depleting Allied Ammunition Stockpiles'

Ukraine, Berlusconi: "As prime minister I would never have gone to dinner with Zelensky. He shouldn't have attacked Donbass"

“If I had been the Prime Minister I would never have gone to talk to Zelensky , because we are witnessing the devastation of his country and the massacre of its soldiers and civilians. It was enough for him to stop attacking the two autonomous republics of Donbass and this would not have happened, so I judge this gentleman's behavior very, very negatively".

With these words the president of Forza Italia Silvio Berlusconi , on the sidelines of his vote for the regional elections in Lombardy, commented on the exclusion of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni from the dinner with the leaders of Germany, France and Ukraine: Scholz, Macron and Zelensky. According to Berlusconi, the war must be ended with a Marshall plan: "Biden promises billions, not weapons. And this gentleman will cease fire".

FYI SM, The next chance I get I'm putting links to the videos of Ukrainians preparing chemical weapons drones and using them for all to see in the main forum, early in the day too so everyone sees it.
I'm sick of this stupid war.

Here's the footage:
This video in the tweet shows Ukrainians fitting drones with chemical canistors.
http://twitter.com/LoveOurTrump/status/1622466250566778880
This video show a Russian soldier in the process of dying when one is dropped on him.
http://twitter.com/GasMaskMan88/status/1623003783499329543

Ukraine accused of chemical warfare
http://www.rt.com/russia/571039-ukraine-donbass-chemical-warfare/

AC,

So the Russian reserve bank is wrong?
Russia's revenues haven't collapsed?
Russian expenditure hasn't skyrocketed?
The Russian surplus hasn't turned into a massive deficit?

Get real.

Russia's throwing untrained troops and tanks across open fields and minefields. The massive casualties are absolutely predictable.

Russia doesn't care a jot about its people and the 1000s of dead sons and husbands are beginning to get noticed in Russia in spite of it desperately trying to hide it.

Russia is being bled dry and are losing this war.

AC,

As far as chemical weapons are concerned, your video is a complete farce. Anyone that works with chemical weapons wears a hazmat suit, also dropping a small can of gas from a high altitude is useless.

The canisters are derivatives of small-caliber fragmentation mortar shells that don't always kill but inflict injuries that take out a soldier for months.

Hey shadowminister,
Russia's spent money preparing for a 30 month war.
NATO and the US are running out of weapons.
Countries are backing away from sending tanks and jets.

We can sit here arguing back and forth.
- But Ukraine are hardly taking back territory.
They're not winning, things are going bad for them.
And Russia hasn't even started its up and coming offensive yet.

AC,

Financially, Russia will burn through its financial reserves by the end of the year with the war and sanctions likely to last well beyond this.

Russia has already committed all of its forces. There is no bigger offensive in the future. Russia has thrown everything into this fight other than the kitchen sink but is making minimal gains for staggering losses of nearly 1000 men a day and dozens of tanks, BMPs, artillery etc. Ukraine is fighting a near-perfect defensive action designed to inflict the most damage on Russian forces.

You have been banging on about how the west is running out of ammunition for nearly a year, yet every month more and more is delivered. If you have any doubt as to the west's capabilities, in WW2 the Ford factory was delivering a new bomber every hour and the navy was delivering a new aircraft carrier every month.

While there are some delays from some countries, Ukraine will be getting 500+ tanks that at least match Russia's and most well outclass the T90.

The UK challenger 2 holds the record for killing a T72 at 5km.

Russia is losing badly and by the end of 2024 life in Russia will be miserable.

I think you're in denial, but I don't want to argue with you about it.
Just wait until their air campaign and bombing gets started.
http://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/financial-times-western-intelligence-shows-russians-amassing-aircraft-on-ukraine-border

Didn't you see the video I showed you from Stoltenberg about NATO running out of ammo?
Haven't you heard the tone of the articles in the MSM over the last few days
Ukraine is using more weapons than the West is producing.

The West builds its war industry around profitability and has no surge capacity.
Russian military industrial capacity is built for war paid for by the state.
They build huge industrial plants that run at 1/10th capacity, always ready to quickly expand should the need arise and have been expanded and are running 24/7 around the clock.

No long range missiles coming,
http://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/13/u-s-wont-send-long-range-missiles-ukraine-00082652
UK not sending fighter jets anytime soon
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64578973

Countries are backing away
Netherlands and Denmark not sending tanks
http://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/the-netherlands-and-denmark-will-not-supply-leopard-2-tanks-to-ukraine
Anthony Blinken 'warns Ukraine' against taking Crimea
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/16/ukraine-warned-against-attempting-retake-crimea-putin/
Blinken: Crimea a ‘red line’ for Putin as Ukraine weighs plans to retake it
http://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/15/blinken-crimea-ukraine-putin-00083149
More Republicans oppose Ukraine Funding
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/11/republicans-aid-ukraine-poll/

The writings on the wall.

Looks like Ukraine has run out 40, 50, 60 year old men,
- As well as the handicapped and 16 year olds.

Now it's sending the girls, just horrible.
http://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/status/1626137443912097793

"Russia has already committed all of its forces."

They have broken Ukrainian defensive lines partly using men from prisons.
Other than that Wagner group is fairly well equipped using ex-military, which is why the US is trying to sanction them.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/13/russia-wagner-group-sanctions-ukraine-putin/

The US uses money as a weapon and thinks it can solve it's problems by writing cheques, but that doesn't create weapons or the infrastructure to produce them immediately.

The Russians have only done one mobilisation of 300,000 reservists and have a population of 145 million people.
Ukraine has been conscripting people without any military experience from off the street, giving them a rifle and sending them to the front to fill the losses in their brigades.
The sanctions did not have the intended outcome.
The West has been outplayed, it's another military debacle and they're looking for a way out whilst also trying to save face.

The Ukrainian armed forces have been largely decimated in Bakhmut.
They don't have enough left in the tank, they don't have enough left to launch successful counter-offensives.

Unconfirmed reports of explosions in Lviv, maybe all the new equipment?

P.S. The US has sent over 1000 000 155mm howitzer shells to Ukraine and is still sending over 100 000 per month. (over 3000 per day). The use of artillery to massacre Russians at Vuhledar

The US has issued contracts to private companies to increase production rapidly to 90 000 per month with plans to reach a capacity of 200 000 pm by the end of 2023.

That is only for the US and does not include ammunition from the EU, Canada, or 152mm ammunition from other countries for the old Russian-made guns.

The latest tranch includes MIG 29s from Poland, about 7000 javelins, and more HIMARS systems with missiles incl the 150km range ones.

"KYIV, Ukraine — As Moscow steps up its offensive in eastern Ukraine, weeks of failed attacks on a Ukrainian stronghold have left two Russian brigades in tatters, raised questions about Russia’s military tactics and renewed doubts about its ability to maintain sustained, large-scale ground assaults.

The battle for the city of Vuhledar, which has been viewed as an opening move in an expected Russian spring offensive, has been playing out since the last week of January, but the scale of Moscow’s losses there is only now beginning to come into focus.

Accounts from Ukrainian and Western officials, Ukrainian soldiers, captured Russian soldiers and Russian military bloggers, as well as video and satellite images, paint a picture of a faltering Russian campaign that continues to be plagued by battlefield dysfunction.

In recent weeks, Moscow has rushed tens of thousands more troops, many of them inexperienced new recruits, to the front lines as President Vladimir V. Putin’s forces seek to demonstrate progress before the anniversary of his invasion on Feb. 24. But raising further doubts about Russia’s offensive capabilities, Western officials estimate that a large part of Russia’s army is already fighting in Ukraine."

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/nato-chief-ukraines-ammunition-outstripping-supply-97082620

“The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions and depleting allied stockpiles,” Stoltenberg said. “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defense industries under strain.”

'many times higher'

Not an equal amount, not twice as much and probably not three times as much.

MANY TIMES HIGHER.
This is coming from the head of NATO, which part is unclear to you?
Exactly what I've been trying to state for months.

Ukraine, is a combination of what Vietnam was for the West;
And what Afghanistan was for the Soviets.

The Vietnam comparison is that the West is not going to win militarily.
The Afghanistan comparison, (dragging western countries down economically and sending them broke)
is that this conflict, will be the end of the Western lead empire.
- And the US never achieved anything in Afghanistan either.
Taliban took the country back one week after the US left.

Sanctions have done more harm to the West than it has done to Russia, and Ukraine continues on only through western financing.

And the reason for all of it, (this war that has continues since 2014) - though Putin didn't invade until a year ago) is the United States neoconservative foreign policy.

The continued fighting at Bakhmut will break the back of the Ukrainian armed forces, both militarily and politically.
After which their troop morale will be shattered, there will be little Ukraianian resistance and will to fight, their leadership will be criticised and the Western sponsors will back away.

AC,

The Allies have been depleting their stocks for a year now, but what is clear is that the US and Allied present stockpiles are sufficient to continue supplying Ukraine at the present rate well into 2024. The US has just awarded contracts to private firms to bolster the production of 155mm shells to 90 000 pm in the next few months and to 200 000 pm by 2024. Ukraine is not going to run out of ammo any time soon.

The Ukraine army is in better shape than the Russian army which has been suffering massive losses. Bahkmut has little to no strategic value and is now depopulated and a mass of broken buildings. The value to the Ukrainians was that it forced the Russians to attack heavily fortified Ukrainian positions across open fields and allowed the Ukrainians to massacre Russians with comparatively low casualties on their side.

Whereas the Russians have lost 1000s of soldiers and many tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery in futile attacks in the south. Their spring offensive gained them very little territory at a huge cost to the army's strength.

Russia's finances for February look even worse than January as the 2nd stage ban on refined products comes into effect.

Russia is getting its arse kicked and is losing the war.