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The Forum > General Discussion > We got it wrong on warming, says IPCC

We got it wrong on warming, says IPCC

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Hasbeen:"Even the high priests of the order don't actually believe it, when you read the fine print of their latest gospel."

OK, where in here does it say they don't believe it? http://ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UkkqHtLTzTo
Posted by Luciferase, Monday, 30 September 2013 5:38:43 PM
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Sorry, Hasbeen, you will have to wait until later today European time for the download from the site I gave above.
Posted by Luciferase, Monday, 30 September 2013 5:43:43 PM
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Actually, Hasbeen, perhaps you only need this level of detail to support your statement. No fine print tho', other than IPCC contact details. http://ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/ar5/ar5_wg1_headlines.pdf
Posted by Luciferase, Monday, 30 September 2013 5:50:47 PM
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here..is one..we can watch..now

http://www.corbettreport.com/episode-282-the-ipcc-exposed/

the hacked emails..flashback

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ydo2Mwnwpac

play..the ball..not the man
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/09/29/the-bad-novel-and-the-new-climate-report/

when reality..dont match..the model[reality.is wrong]
FLASHBACK -
IPCC models getting mushy


Article referred to in the Corbett Report on the IPCC further down, in which the IPCC admits that the real world warming did not match their computer predictions, then go on to reaffirm their high confidence in those models.

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/09/16/ipcc-models-getting-mushy/

the up-date
of climate-gate
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/climategate.php

a practical egsample..of how
for govt mates..its great
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-19/how-germany-s-alw-got-busted-for-the-largest-food-fraud-in-u-dot-s-dot-history

40 experts..re 911
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9n9JJg4cRxo

the process of creating your adgenda
via fear/hate..[a practical egsample]
http://desertpeace.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/the-anatomy-of-islamophobia/
Posted by one under god, Monday, 30 September 2013 5:58:15 PM
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OUG, if you're intending to help Hasbeen find where the IPCC is saying it does not believe its own findings then your links have missed it.

Almost the entire focus of the denialists is on surface air temperature and warming having slowed in this regard, which some models did not predict. Therefore they attack modelling. Their focus regarding observed ocean warming is that the IPCC is vague about its connection to surface air temperature.

I earlier referred to http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap01/icecore.html where you will note the imperfect graphical relationship at the detailed level between CO2 and CH4 concentrations and surface air temperature while there is very strong relationship seen at the macro level. It is perfectly reasonable to link the ocean to this fact and assume surface temperatures will ultimately fall into line with the general upward trend in GHG concentrations as, it appears, they always have.

Precisely what mechanism is involved in heat transfer between air and ocean needs further research. The fact it is not clearly resolved is not a weakness of the IPCC report, which is not obliged to prove a mechanism to support its case, but it is applied as a criticism nonetheless.

Meanwhile, we should focus on the fact the oceans are warming (and acidifying) and this is a proxy for an expected surface air temperature rise in the future, and possibly quite quickly.
Posted by Luciferase, Monday, 30 September 2013 8:17:40 PM
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Hi Luciferase,

So although global temperatures haven't risen in 15-16 years, it's all going into the oceans. So has there been much temperature rise in the oceans ? As you suggest,

"Precisely what mechanism is involved in heat transfer between air and ocean needs further research."

Yes indeed. But wouldn't that mean that ocean temperatures are rising, perhaps at a faster rate than land temperatures ? With oceans covering more than half the Earth's surface, wouldn't this translate to mean much higher rainfall, in toto ? So much for Professor Flannery's declarations of empty dams an lower rainfall across Australia, I suppose.

I'm sort of still on the Left, so of course I hope and wish for some sign that a capitalist-controlled world is going down the drain. And that there's nothing much anybody can do about it: we're doomed, and it's all their fault.

But I'm very disappointed that temperature rises have been so small. And what worries me much more is that capitalism may be able to easily cope with any problems, by switching over to renewables, and massive development of nuclear power, and making big bucks in that process of fundamental technological transformation.

Cheers,

Joe
www.firstsources.inf
Posted by Loudmouth, Monday, 30 September 2013 8:38:39 PM
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