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The Forum > General Discussion > What Odds On Trump's M.E Peace Plan?

What Odds On Trump's M.E Peace Plan?

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No hurt here, mhaze.

//...I just think your trying to find a way to sooth the hurt after she praised [Trump].//

I’m pointing out the obvious for context: that praise from someone dependent on US leverage isn’t evidence of shared ideology. If Milei praised Xi to secure soybean trade, you’d dismiss it as transactional.

//That's why I said 10-20 million. There's no credible evidence for any number in particular.//

That’s not how numbers work.

When every credible estimate converges around 10-11 million, adding another 9 million as speculative padding isn’t nuance - it’s inflation. You’re just laundering internet folklore into a rhetorical range.

//Biden opened the borders and they rushed in, uncounted and unvetted.//

Except they are counted - via Border Patrol encounters, asylum applications, and immigration court backlogs. And the border was never "open."

//...there are around 2.5 million less now.//

That's not what the data shows. Border apprehensions =/= net population change. And "2.5 million less" undocumented immigrants this year? You’re mixing up enforcement stats and residency estimates.

//Harvard/Harris poll October 1...//

So, support for deporting criminals is sky-high, support for deporting all undocumented immigrants barely clears 50% - even in a partisan-tilted poll. Hardly a blank cheque for ICE overreach.

//Oh so someone else made the vial [sic] assertion and that means its ok if you do it too?//

Yes - when it’s a federal judge issuing a formal opinion on civil rights grounds, that comparison carries legal and moral weight. The comparison was apt. Vile is making a Wessel of Kirk, then delivering a speech mimicking Goebbels' at the funeral.

//Trump hasn't instituted any new laws for ICE.//

Laws aren’t the issue, tactics and scale are. Authoritarian regimes rarely need new laws, they just reinterpret old ones, ramp up funding, weaponise staffing, and shift intent from justice to fear.

And you keep ignoring that Trump’s ICE now includes:

- Masked agents raiding sanctuary cities
- AI filtering of social media and selfies for protest sentiment
- Civilian contractors running data-dossiers
- A daily 3,000-person arrest quota
- Surveillance tools funded in his 2025 budget, not Obama’s
Posted by John Daysh, Sunday, 12 October 2025 2:49:04 PM
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Hi Fester,
Maybe it's not just because they are starving, but because they're being starved deliberately. Jews own a disproportionate amount of media, as well as VIP status with the U.S. politicaians, as well as this war affecting / atrracting the attention of Jews, Muslims and Christians, so not entirely surprising it gets all the attention. Watching bombs drop on apartment buildings and seeing injured kids certainly gets peoples attention.

I do agree with you though that some issues get no attention,
I'm not opposed to there being an 'unbiased list' of all the worlds problems.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 12 October 2025 3:08:09 PM
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"If Milei praised Xi to secure soybean trade, you’d dismiss it as transactional."

Except he wouldn't do that because it'd be insincere. <grin>

"When every credible estimate converges around 10-11 million"

Every?
Pew Research Center - 14 million
Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) - 15.4million
Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) - 18million
Migration Policy Institute (MPI) / Center for Migration Studies - 14million

Every? Oh I get it. If they don't agree with you they aren't credible.

Every?

"That's not what the data shows."
Every piece of data?

the 2.5 million figure includes voluntary departures - people getting out before they're kicked out. This was part of Trump's policy since those people can now apply to come back legally whereas those deported can't. So Trump encouraged people to self-deport and its working beautifully - not that you'd acknowledge that.

"support for deporting all undocumented immigrants barely clears 50%"

So when I said most USians support the policy and you said I was wrong, you had a different meaning to the word 'most'? Most people would say over 50% is more than most but as with the Queen of Hearts the word means whatever you need it to mean just now.

"partisan-tilted poll."

Oh another example of the data being not credible if it doesn't tell you what you want to hear!! Well perhaps you need to "update your knowledge" by looking at the latest NYT poll. I'll leave you to do that - can't be bothered. But since it'll tell you things you don't want to be true, its probably not credible, n'est pas?

"Masked agents raiding sanctuary cities"

Well that's where the illegals are. Or is that tooooo logical for you. They could always go raiding in places like Martha's Vineyard but since they already got rid of their illegals, it's be futile
Posted by mhaze, Sunday, 12 October 2025 3:59:00 PM
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Hi AC,

"Maybe it's not just because they are starving, but because they're being starved deliberately."

In the case of RSA, the hunger is because of the appropriation of land claimed to have been "stolen" by white farmers (Marxism in action). That appropriated land, much of it very fertile, is now on average 1/400th as productive as farmland in Holland. I think that the status of South Africans and Palestinians is more the result of a mindset than because of others. I wonder how skinny the Israeli hostages might be when they are freed?

"Watching bombs drop on apartment buildings and seeing injured kids certainly gets peoples attention."

Yes, playing the victim has been practiced for a few generations. Lots of Israeli women and kids would have died too if the IDF soldiers had fought like Hamas.
Posted by Fester, Sunday, 12 October 2025 4:06:30 PM
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That’s the whole point, mhaze.

//Except he wouldn't do that because it'd be insincere. <grin>//

You assume your guy’s allies are always sincere and your enemies’ allies are always fake. But in realpolitik, sincerity isn’t the currency - leverage is.

//Every? Pew: 14 million. CIS: 15.4m. FAIR: 18m. MPI/CMS: 14m.//

This confirms my point.

Even your highest figures are still far from your original 20 million, and CIS and FAIR are hardline anti-immigration groups. FAIR was literally designated a hate group by the SPLC due to white nationalist ties. So yes, credible sources matter.

//The 2.5 million figure includes voluntary departures...//

So it’s not that there are fewer undocumented immigrants, it’s that some may have left before being deported. That doesn’t support your earlier claim that "millions less now" proves Trump’s success. If anything, it shows how fear - not policy - is driving exits. You can’t deport people who self-deport out of terror.

//So when I said most USians support the policy...//

But the Harvard/Harris poll didn’t ask about facial-recognition AI, masked raids, or surveillance of ICE critics. Support for deporting criminals isn’t carte blanche for domestic surveillance.

//Partisan-tilted poll.//

Harvard/Harris is run by Mark Penn, Hillary Clinton’s old pollster turned Trump-adjacent Fox News pundit. It’s notorious for loaded questions and "odd" sampling. But thanks for citing it - it still showed only 56% support for full deportation.

//Well perhaps you need to "update your knowledge" by looking at the latest NYT poll...//

I’m happy to - because the latest NYT/Siena poll shows Trump leading Biden on immigration perception, not policy detail. Public perception is shaped by fearmongering, not facts. That’s the tragedy of your own argument.

//Well that’s where the illegals are.//

Sanctuary cities cooperate with federal law on violent crimes but refuse to let local police become ICE deputies. That’s a legal, constitutional choice under federalism. Sending in masked agents anyway is intimidation - not logic.

If "rounding them up where they live" justifies covert surveillance of dissenters, AI facial recognition, and civilian profiling, then your logic extends beyond immigration - it’s authoritarianism dressed as border control.
Posted by John Daysh, Sunday, 12 October 2025 4:43:45 PM
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"Lots of Israeli women and kids would have died too if the IDF soldiers had fought like Hamas."

Really, that's what you think?
How many Israeli women did Palestinians shoot dead for no reason yesterday?
Do you not realise that you're a victim of total bs?
I bet if Palestinians did this yesterday (link below) it would be the end of the ceasefire right?
You've got to ask yourself why did they do this during the ceasefire?
They don't care, maybe they want to provoke them.

http://x.com/ahmedabd_gaza/status/1977162312613327107

"On October 11, 2025, 28-year-old Palestinian teacher Aisha al-Ramhi was shot and killed by Israeli border police near a checkpoint in Shuafat, East Jerusalem. Police reported she advanced with a 15-centimeter knife, posing an immediate threat, while eyewitnesses and Palestinian officials maintain she was unarmed and returning home from work. The incident, captured in a viral video, has intensified scrutiny over the use of force at checkpoints amid escalating West Bank tensions, with over 200 Palestinian deaths reported there this year by the UN."

Some people think in terms of 'terrorists' 'animals' 'amalek'
I think in terms of someones wife, daughter or mother.

Maybe people think I can't hold 2 different positions at the same time, like for example, I really don't want our country overrun with Islamists like the UK, that's one position.
But that doesn't equate to me supporting IDF killing innocent people.
That's another.

I'm no friend of Islam, but do I have to be, to find this reprehensible

If Israelis can murder innocent women like this, endlessly without any recourse, like this woman's life was completely worthless, like that of a cockroach, then TELL ME WHY ANY OF THE ISRAELIS ON OCTOBER 7 SHOULD EVER BE MOURNED.

They're not just numbers or statistics, they're human beings, and mostly women and kids.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 12 October 2025 5:28:59 PM
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