[Cont]
New reports say they're attacking with thousands of tanks, and don't forget most of the Ukrainians with significant combat experience are already dead. Many of the Ukrainian defenders are conscripts with limited training, where as many of the Russians had many months of training, but the defenses in Avdiivka have been built up over 8 years.

Here's a couple of videos that I sometimes watch.
Most of Twitter is focussed on Israel atm

The Russians Started The LARGEST Offensive Operation. Military Summary 2023.10.12
http://youtu.be/yu4I3yONJ5I

The Russians Are Fighting For Strategic Heights Near Avdiivka. Military Summary For 2023.10.13
http://youtu.be/RH2gfsFIXxo

Whether the offensive will be successful or not we'll just have to see but these things take time in order to destroy defensive strongholds.

Yes, it is certainly a very large amount of hardware that the Russians are deploying. I even heard they had 300 artillery units deployed around Avdiivka. I believe that a major hurdle for the Russians has been the mine fields, as it has been for the Ukrainians trying to conduct mechanised assaults.

I am wondering what the strategy of the armies will be in the coming months? I suspect that the Ukrainians might try to coordinate limited assaults with intense targeting of supplies and reinforcements. It seems to be their method. As for Russia, other than targeting the electrical grid, conducting mass assaults seems a bit extravagant, even with their large reserves.

Well, going from what the tweet in my first response to claimed, the white phosphorous was used in order to set off land mines and to clear a path forward for troops, tanks, and armoured vehicles.

And if you say there were up to 300 artillery systems, then you info might be correct, I don't follow telegram channels where one might get a lot more info; I could never figure out how to update telegram so that it automatically translates other languages.

One of the main reasons why these things take time is because different types of weapons with different range of fire are set back at different distances from the front line, so when you move forward you come under attack from different weapon systems. If you wish to minimise losses you have to go about taking out these different weapon systems methodically.

You can get a little bit of info from these older videos below.

Skip to 2:45
http://youtu.be/F89iypG7k8s

Skip to 22 minutes
http://youtu.be/kDKORwR2yW4

"I am wondering what the strategy of the armies will be in the coming months?"

I'm not sure how each side plans to deal with the winter freeze, I've heard people speculate both going on the offensive and also simply maintaining defense positions. I think each side has around 900,000 troops currently, so those numbers are fairly even. Also part of war strategy is not advertising your plans and keep your enemy guessing, and sleep deprived.

I'm not sure Ukraine has enough weapons to go on the offensive right now, so I expect they will take up defensive positions, while there's a chance Russia might go on an offensive during the winter.

In the short term I think Russia will likely continue a relentless attack on Avdiivka, it's important because the Ukrainians have been shelling Donetsk City from there.

Thank AC,

You are well informed as always. The only problems I see with phosphorus is that it may no be so good against the buried mines, and both sides can deploy mines with artillery. Then there are the drone based weapons that can be brought into effect: I believe that Ukraine are getting some S600s, supposedly a loitering Javelin with a 40km range.

But everything is so uncertain, which is why I see a lot of sense in the Ukrainian strategy of using a wide range of weaponry to support limited advances. I can't see Russia sustaining its forces with its current offensive strategy, but I agree that both sides are suffering a lack of equipment, probably under half the gear that would be the standard.

Well like all of us (on any topic) I'm only as well informed as I can be from the sources of information I consume. My info is always from the Russian side of things, and we both know there's a difference between what the Ukrainians say and what the Russians say. I can't even claim to have a balanced understanding of things because I don't often look at information from the Ukrainians side.

http://twitter.com/TheHumanFund5/status/1712927579806597228

Baldrick,

It looks like the attack on Andrivka was anticipated, and most of the massive Russian force of armour and men has been destroyed with virtually no gains.

It looks like your sources of information are continually wrong. You claimed a year ago that the Ukrainian army had been destroyed, yet here we are with the Ukrainians still killing Russians in the 1000s.

Russia is losing this war.