Baldrick,

"Russia won't stop now while Ukraine is on the back foot and they hold the initiative." What a joke, Russia is retreating on just about every front.

Even Lavrov according to your quote realises that Russia can't beat Ukraine when it is supplied by the entire West. That the EU has just pledged another $2.4bn in arms supplies, another $1bn from Canada and potentially another $40bn from the US.

Ukraine's cruise missiles can hit anywhere in occupied Ukraine and the remains of Russia's black sea fleet have fled Crimea and are now cowering in Russian ports Russia's airforce has also retreated from Crimea after losing many planes on the ground.

Russia is going backwards. Ukraine is now matching Russia's artillery firing with far more accurate and deadly equipment with M1 tanks, F16s and ATACMS arriving shortly.

Russia is losing this war.

"What a joke, Russia is retreating on just about every front."

I don't know how you can possibly come to those conclusions.
There have been no significant changes on the war map whatsoever for months.
Where is Russia retreating?
Can you or anyone else on this forum show on any war map where exactly Russia is retreating?

Russian lines stronger than West expected, admits British defence chief
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-defensive-lines-stronger-than-west-expected-admits-british-defence-chief-xjlvqrm86

It's as if you dispute what even your own western media is saying
(I say that since you always give me that crap about Russian propaganda)
You know what that headline above should say?
'Western Military Experts Fail To Anticipate Strength of Russian Defensive Lines'

When Ukraine gathers together all the weapons it can get its hands on for a well advertised offensive, and achieves nothing, then that's a Ukrainian and Western FAILURE.

And if Russia successfully stops this Ukrainian offensive and it fails to achieve its objectives than that's a Russian SUCCESS.

The West has failed at every turn, has shown its complete incompetence in its planning and expectations in achieving ANY of its objectives.

"Even Lavrov according to your quote realises that Russia can't beat Ukraine when it is supplied by the entire West."
Ok, which part of that quote exactly made you come to that conclusion?
- I didn't see any part where he alluded to Russian military capabilities, and I don't know how you possibly got that from what he said.
He was giving his opinion of western military plans;
He alluded to assumptions and arguments made by Western political scientists who publish in Foreign Affairs magazine.

"That the EU has just pledged another $2.4bn in arms supplies, another $1bn from Canada and potentially another $40bn from the US."

You do realise you have to take these numbers into context and also understand that theres a difference between the west starting a contract to produce weapons and the west actually supplying them, as well as the fact that the whole entire Ukrainian government needs to be funded by the west just to exist.

The West has spent 100 - 200 billion trying to defend Ukraine.
And western arms manufacturers charge about $6000 for a standard 155mm shell, while Russia produces its own 152mm shells for $600 to $800.

The west is years away from matching what Russia is already producing now, and by then Russia will be producing a whole lot more.
Right now not only can the West not match Russian production, they can't even get adequate supplies of the explosives to make them.

Explosives shortage threatens EU drive to arm Ukraine
http://www.ft.com/content/aee0e1a1-c464-4af9-a1c8-73fcbc46ed17
Scarce gunpowder and TNT supplies delay shift to ‘large-scale war production’, defence industry and officials warn

So your EU money is a contract is for weapons yet to be produced against the backdrop of an explosives shortage.
Your Canadian government money is C$1Bln loan via IMF to help keep the Ukrainian government running and C$500M pledge, yet they have no anti-tank missiles, small arms or ammunition left to send.
And Ukraine is so far from getting all it wants from the US it's not funny.
The US is borrowing from China to do this!
They tried to tie the money for Ukraine into the bill for the US government shutdown.

And Russia is blowing up 4 or 5 million euro tanks with $1000 FPV's, and blowing the crap out everything with precision guided glide bombs and TOS 1A thermobaric weapons.

Ukraine is fighting a propaganda war, like we're in a Hollywood movie.
Raising the flag on Crimea, Attacking the Crimean bridge, Attacking naval ships in drydock and civilian targets in Moscow and elsewhere.

None of this shite changes the fact that Ukraine is unable to retake territory, faces a shortage of troops, weapons, ammunition and everything else.

The F16s, I doubt Ukrainians will be flying them, they can't understand English to enable western instructors to train them.
- But they will get blown out of the sky by Russian integrated air and missile defence either way, and I look forward to the footage of ABRAMS burning and blowing up;
- which is inevitable (and sad for the poor blokes forced to be in them), but will be an embarrassment for the US.

Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have surrendered you know.
You don't get well motivated troops when you drag them off the street and pistol whip them until they sign their conscription papers.

Hi AC,

What happened to the 150k troops and equipment that Russia committed to the Northern offensive?

The Ukrainians are doing what they can with what they have. They have been effective at picking off troops, hardware and ordinance with precision strikes. Russia still has lots of equipment, but they continue to lose it at an unsustainable rate. I see a lot of sense in the Ukrainians continuing to pick off the Russian forces as they have been. Cluster munitions have put a stop to the Russian meat wave tactics and the shortage of electronic warfare equipment and artillery rounds is limiting their defensive capability. The availability of better air support and longer range precision weapons for Ukraine will only make things worse for Russia.

Hi Fester,
That's a damn good question actually.
I'm not entirely sure that Russia ever did commit that many troops to it, I think the Ukrainians started screaming about it themselves first and it may have been over exaggerated in order to get the west to send them more weapons.
Russia certainly hasn't made any convincing moves on Kupiansk as was anticipated.