Hi Shadow Minister,

Not even a few hours pass and I see reports of further allegations of war crimes on the Ukrainian side.

Kremlin lashes U.S, Ukraine for HIMARS strike on civil hospital; 'Heinous War Crimes'
http://youtu.be/ntMOJ2tv1Cg

Hi Yuyutsu,
"What do you mean by 'countdown'?"
- I think that a negotiated resolution of the conflict is becoming less likely, and all out war between NATO / US and Russia which will lead to nuclear war is becoming more likely.

"We are already in WW3 for a year, at least!"
Troops in American uniforms are yet to be shooting at troops in Russian uniforms, and WW3 is probably related to 'when the nukes drop'.
Two nuclear armed nations fighting a proxy war in Ukraine...
(Well the US is fighting a proxy war, Russia and Ukraine are fighting a real one, but the US has maybe more to lose than Russia)
It certainly has the making of what could well result in a nuclear conflict.

- But Russia (Maria Zakharova) has just recently stated that NATO is now directly involved in the conflict.
Even the video above states Russia alleges the US is now directly involved in the conflict.

"Like it or not, we are IN this WW3, and you better end on the winning side!"

Not sure how it's going to turn out.
They say in a nuclear war nobody wins.
I can only add that I will stand up for whatever I think is right, regardless of the eventual outcome

The Ukraine conflict may yet become the Wests Afghanistan.
- 'Graveyard of Empires'

alea iacta est
The die has been cast
We've passed the point of no return.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/29/amid-the-smoke-of-war-power-in-europe-is-shifting-decisively-to-the-east

"But this is just the first in many further escalatory steps that Nato governments are certain to face in the coming months, regardless of how the war develops. If the inevitable Russian spring offensive against Ukraine proves more successful than currently feared, demands will grow for the supply of fighter jets to Ukraine’s armed forces. So will suggestions of an even more direct Nato involvement in defending Ukraine’s skies. Today, that’s unthinkable. But then, supplying western tanks was also taboo until recently.

Conversely, if the anticipated Ukrainian offensive does better than Nato military planners anticipate, the question of the liberation of occupied Crimea – with the expected fleeing of hundreds of thousands of Russian settlers from the peninsula – will arise. And so would the risk that the Putin regime will resort to a nuclear escalation in order to stave off total humiliation and collapse."

If Ukraine does badly, the West will escalate.
If Russia does badly they will fully mobilise.

I'm not sure there's any way out.
This could very likely end with Russia and the US nuking each other.
There's plenty of things that could happen, but I can't see anything changing this formula of both sides continuing to escalate until one side drops a nuclear bomb on the other, at which point the other sides nuclear subs will respond.

The only other option I see is the US covertly detonating a nuke on Ukrainian soil and blaming Russia, before things get that far.

Dear Critic,

«I think that a negotiated resolution of the conflict is becoming less likely, and all out war between NATO/US and Russia which will lead to nuclear war is becoming more likely.»

Took you a whole year to reach this conclusion?

For me this was obvious a year ago.
The day Russia invaded I told my family that WW3 has started, and yes, it will be nuclear.

Each war is different and this one started rather slowly, but that's just the tactics, the nukes are bound to drop, the question is just how many of them.

«the video above states Russia alleges the US is now directly involved in the conflict.»

Was that ever a secret?

«Not sure how it's going to turn out.»

Millions dead of course, hope it won't be billions.

«They say in a nuclear war nobody wins.»

That's sentimental. There was a nuclear war already once and the Americans won over Japan.

We cannot be sure of course, but according to Mathematical Game Theory, chances are that there will be a winner, that some humans will survive.

When both sides have many nukes, the winning strategy is statistical.
You don't just throw bombs where you like - that's a losing strategy: instead you throw maybe 0.03-0.13 bombs (the exact best strategy can be computed).

Instead of just throwing a bomb, which would escalate too quickly, get out of hand and cause human extinction (a losing strategy), you set up a list of enemy cities and assign small probabilities to each of them, which all add up to much less than 1, then openly declare your intention and throw a digital random "dice", which tells irreversibly which city to nuke, if any (highest probability is none), without human intervention. Neither these automated methods nor the theory behind them were available in WW2, but are available now.

«I can only add that I will stand up for whatever I think is right»

I don't like either empire, but I will side with the empire under which life is relatively more tolerable because freedom is relatively less restricted.

Hi Yuyutsu,
Up until now I hoped that there would be some kind of decisive end to the conflict without it escalating further.
(In the absence of a negotiated resolution)
- Maybe I was being naive, or it was wishful thinking.
Nobody wants to think nuclear war is unavoidable.

Just watched these 3 important short videos.
They're all by different authors, but are related on topic.
If anyone watches them, they'll know what I mean by related.

2023.01.28 The West Has Lost Already
http://youtu.be/q9957O8n8d0

Global alternative to US' World Order growing. Russia's friends India + China buy its oil like crazy.
http://youtu.be/IerrPchFkaE

Peter Schiff - China & Russia Are Sabotaging The US Economy By Dumping Trillions Of US Dollars
http://youtu.be/iWoGIepyLqE

The US has gone from 5 trillion debt to 32 trillion debt under Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden.

AC,

You keep on framing this as a war with the west. This is a war between Ukraine and Russia, there are no NATO soldiers involved at all thus this cannot be a graveyard for the west, but it is a graveyard for more than 100 000 Russian soldiers.

To put this into context, the value of all the aid that the US has sent to Ukraine amounts to about 3% of the US's annual military budget. On top of this much of this is obsolete equipment that would never be used by the US army yet is still better than most of the crap that Russia is using. As far as the US is concerned this is a bargain-basement destruction of the Russian army. The F16s planned for Ukraine are also surplus stock.

There are 1000s of confirmed war crimes committed by Russians. The amnesty report to which you refer was withdrawn after the novice decided that any military in a city made the entire city a target. This will be decided at the war crimes tribunal later.

As far as arms and ammunition the EU, US and Canada have more than 50x the production capacity of Russia.

As for the nuclear threat, Russia has been left with no doubt that any nuke detonated would be a catastrophe for Russia.