SteeleRedux,

Interesting to see you raise the issue that England decided to go the 'herd immunity route.

My reckoning is that China used the herd immunity approach in Wuhan. They haven't come out and said this but it makes sense that this is what happened because (1) they kept it secret in the early stage and (2) only released it to the news after it had peaked and (3) the infections came to a sudden halt and decline halt. I think these points all indicate a herd immunity approach.

Bug Ridden Boris, followed the same route taken in London during the Plague of 1665. Red crosses on doors etc, and he stopped eating figs, however he did stop short of having all the cats and dogs destroyed. Should have surrounded himself with burning candies like the Pope in Rome did. It must have worked, he didn't catch the pox!

mhaze wrote 5th April "But now we know that the threat of this virus to all, other than the very aged with pre-existing conditions, is minor."

"Check this site which shows a strange lack of increase in overall deaths in Europe" The facts since 5th April have shot mhaze claims to pieces.

SR,

Here's what I wrote on the first day of the thread by way of clarification....

"You need to look at the graphs for the overall data and compare the deaths during this influenza season as compared to previous influenza seasons."

That still remains correct.

As to the 15-64 yr olds, I guess if you struggle with numbers you could think that the data would be distributed across that age group. But you'd be wrong. We know, based on other data, that the deaths concentrate at the upper end of that cohort.

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You might notice that I also mentioned the Diamond Princess in those early posts, a subject that SR and the like avoided like the plague, if you'll forgive the expression.

This very interesting article also mentions that vessel and the data from it. Since that data doesn't match with what most people want to be true, its been ignored. But it still remains valid....

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/

Dear mhaze,

You said; "You need to look at the graphs for the overall data and compare the deaths during this influenza season as compared to previous influenza seasons."

We sure have and what looked to be a very mild season has been taken off the rails by the Coronavirus.

Yuo then said; “As to the 15-64 yr olds, I guess if you struggle with numbers you could think that the data would be distributed across that age group. But you'd be wrong. We know, based on other data, that the deaths concentrate at the upper end of that cohort.”.

Nobody made that contention at all. Another straw man from you. However given there was such a mild flu season the sudden uptick in deaths in this cohort does show the age group has indeed been impacted heavily by the virus. You would have to be utterly blind not to accept that as a fact.

If we had access to the age data by country I suspect it would be far more pronounced in those countries most rife with the disease.

Basically mate the whole premise of your first post has sunk from sight and all you are doing now is trying to save a couple of deck chairs.

Give it away.

SR

I know it not the popular view, but there are other considerations, namely the economy: that is where Trump trumpets.
So the western economies are incredibly fragile. Chinese economy is fragile for the reason of its dependency on the West.

Since the subprime collapse, quantative easing ( printing money), has been legendary.
The Feds lowering interest rates to almost zero for this reason has created a debt bubble, which is a contagion with ruthless consequences for everybody.

Trump is correct in applying the logic; which will be more painful, watching the vulnerable in society melt down during a corona virus pandemic, or watching the consequences of a global finnancial melt down?

Also keep this in mind, the hardest hit has been small business. This lockdown nonsense has decimated it. That is stupid governance. Nothing is worth that price.
To substitute the contributions of small business with government printed money, is fairy-land economics.

The situation in society is out of control while looking like its in control.
I can sympathise with the rigging of objectionable flags on the Telstra tower in Melbourne overnight. It makes sense.

We are not living through an Ebola plague, with a death rate of 97%, if we were then all the overkill would be justified.

Dan

I agree completely Dan. I believe this cure is likely to be a lot more devastating than the disease.

I had my 20Th birthday party just 6 weeks ago. At my party we were discussing that if I can hang around for another 4 years we can have a huge 21St birthday party. Yes I'm a leap year kid, [special from the day I was born], I've been around just over 80 years, So one of the more vulnerable.

It is nice of you lot to be so worried for my well being, but I am more worried about my kids & grand kids futures. My kids are OK, still employed & likely to remain so, but on 4 day weeks. My son is fine, the navy keep chasing him every couple of months to come back, they are desperate for engineers with experience, but many of my neighbors & their kids are home, & some are already worried about their mortgage in the years to come.

Many doubt their previous employers will reopen their business, & the older ones know how hard it is for 50+ people to find jobs.

If we don't reopen for business in the next month or so, some of us oldies may survive longer, but how many younger lives will be destroyed to achieve this? Much as I would like to have that 21St birthday party, I am not sure it is worth the huge cost to the current younger & next generation, this lock down is causing.