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The Forum > General Discussion > The thin Red Line

The thin Red Line

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Wow! Prigozhin is on his way to Moscow AC, so there might be a belated May 9th parade in Red Square after all. Going by his comments the conflict in Ukraine could end very quickly as I'm sure he is communicating with the Ukrainians as well.
Posted by Fester, Saturday, 24 June 2023 11:51:07 PM
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Yes it's an interesting development.
See what happens I guess.

The political damage he's done because of his grievance with Shoigu and Gerasimov is huge, but the nation largely backed Putin, so his little insurrection didn't turn out exactly as he may have planned.

I think he had no choice than to call it off and make a deal otherwise he would've been facing life in prison, or a bullet.

I think Putin and Lukashenko did some quick damage control, but going forward it's still a messy situation and who knows where it might lead, and the political damage as far as Russia's standing with other nations, as a stable country definitely are significant.

Militarily I'm not sure that anything significant has changed, at this point anyway.

It's almost kind of curious that it happened right now to be honest - during this Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Some are suggesting Western involvement, whether there's any truth to that (or what that potential involvement might be) who knows.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 25 June 2023 5:32:53 PM
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AC,

From where I stand it looks as though the Russian defence is unravelling. Russians are still losing 1000s of men every month along with dozens of tanks, IFVs howitzers, aircraft etc. The destruction of 4 bridges used to supply Russian front-line troops is making Russian lives miserable and the systematic destruction of Russian sleeping quarters and ammunition dumps can't help either.

The rebellion by Wagner is a symptom of the desperation of the Russian fighting men who see their comrades dying in droves the failure to pay the soldiers and their terrible living conditions.

Russia is losing this war.
Posted by shadowminister, Monday, 26 June 2023 10:56:28 AM
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Nar, everythings fine bar the existing issues.
"Russians are still losing 1000s of men every month along with dozens of tanks..."

That may be true, but Russia is largely keeping pace in resupplying that which it's losing. Ukraine is not, it's losing heaps more men and equipment in comparison and the west has no significant means with which to replace those losses.

Shite, they're on the 12th mobilisation, Russia's only had one and currently has over 100K well trained troops in reserve, Ukraine is dragging what's left of it's men and boys off the street sending them for a few weeks training in Kharkov to fire off a few clips or a few months specialist training in western aligned countries and then sending them to the front. And Ukraine is largely the side sending it's troops in to attack and take it's land back, and needs to show progress to get continued support and flow of weapons from the west whilst Russia is essentially well dug in and fighting in defense.

"The destruction of 4 bridges..."
- They're not destroyed. Pontoon bridges were built immediately to alleviate any supply concerns, and the bridges are rapidly being repaired.

"The rebellion by Wagner is a symptom of the desperation of the Russian fighting men who see their comrades dying in droves the failure to pay the soldiers and their terrible living conditions."

- Not really, in some ways it's strengthened and consolidated the military and political leadership. The coup failed. Wagner forces that didn't take part in it will get contracts with the Russian military, the ones that did get amnesty from their mutiny, because they are essentially heroes from previous battles, all the significant players backed Putin, Prigozhin is considered a traitor and has been exiled and will lose support with Wagner essentially diminished / disbanded / or brought under the control of the Russian MOD.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Monday, 26 June 2023 11:35:47 AM
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AC,

Just about everything you say is patently false.

Russia is not even close to replacing everything they are losing. For example, they are replacing about 30 tanks a month and losing about 150. They have lost 6 helicopters this month so far and have replaced zero. In the time that Ukraine has lost a handful of tanks, they have already received 30 more from the EU along with another 500 000 shells, missiles, IFVs etc. The US and EU are ramping up production of all weapons and ammunition and there is no danger of Ukraine running out of anything. In fact, by year-end they will be getting F16 fighters and long-range missiles.

Russia's on permanent mobilisation, and has virtually no one in reserve having virtually no one to stop a handful of rebels taking towns in Belgorad.

The 4 bridges are not completely destroyed but are functionally unusable and repairs will take months. The Pontoon bridges are best better than nothing but can't take heavy loads and only a small fraction of traffic that the bridges could take, and certainly no trains.

As for Wagner, how can the confusion and panic be good for the Russian army? How many of the Wagner forces are going to willingly sign up for the pittance that the Russian army pays its soldiers?

Ukraine is advancing on all fronts and Russia is inevitably losing this war.
Posted by shadowminister, Monday, 26 June 2023 2:33:01 PM
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"In the time that Ukraine has lost a handful of tanks, they have already received 30 more..."

A handful you say?
Ukraine lost 245 tanks in 18 days.
What is 30 more going to do compared to that which the Ukrainians were unable to do with 245?
https://www.rt.com/russia/578418-putin-ukraine-offensive-odds/
- Russia has probably built 20 new T90M and refurbed 40 T-72s so far this month.

"Russia's on permanent mobilisation, and has virtually no one in reserve having virtually no one to stop a handful of rebels taking towns in Belgorad."

- Well whats this 166 thousand then Mr. 12th Ukrainian mobilisation?
http://www.oreanda-news.com/en/gosudarstvo/by-the-end-of-june-the-russian-armed-forces-will-form-a-reserve-army/article1479529/
Soon Ukraine will be emptying out nursing homes, rounding up nursing mothers and children under 12.

"The 4 bridges are not completely destroyed but are functionally unusable and repairs will take months."

Really?
I'll give the Chonhar bridge about a week and a half tops based on this footage.
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1672930379777597440
Looks like they've already torn out the damaged section, replaced the beam, probably onto the steelwork right now and will be ready to pour concrete in a few days.

Maybe you missed that post I showed you nearly a year back where they completely built brand new blocks of high rise apartments in Mariupol in 60 days, ready for people to move in.
- I can dig up the footage if you like?
Posted by Armchair Critic, Monday, 26 June 2023 7:42:02 PM
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