Hi AC,

"Ukraine is not winning in a war of territorial conquest"

Ukraine is defending itself against an unprovoked invasion. Remember your comments about how the Ukrainians were getting hammered in Kherson, just before the Russian army made a hasty retreat across the Dnipro?

"they're not winning in a war of attrition"

They are, which is precisely why the last counteroffensive was successful. Bakhmut has cost Russia far more than Ukraine and has destroyed the threat of Wagner mercenaries.

"throwing everything they and the west had trying to defend Bakhmut, and they're still going to lose it"

Russia doesn't have Bakhmut yet, and I note that they have been throwing more of their forces into the fight of late. That is exactly what the Ukrainians want. The Ukrainian commanders realise that the chance of a successful counteroffensive improves with the depletion of Russian forces.

And remember the recent leak of Pentagon secret documents, the ones that Russia has little interest in discussing other than suggesting them to be fake and released by the US? That wouldn't be because they mention the infighting of the Russian military, the under-reporting of Russian casualties, and concerns that losses have been so great as to compromise their ability to hold captured territory would it? Apparently Putin doesn't know about the extent of Russian losses either as his advisors are too scared to tell him.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65260672

"Ukraine is defending itself against an unprovoked invasion. Remember your comments about how the Ukrainians were getting hammered in Kherson, just before the Russian army made a hasty retreat across the Dnipro?"

It's a misconception, the 'Great Kherson counteroffensive' went nowhere, Russians defended well. The tactical withdraw (albeit a retreat) occurred for several reasons, firstly logistical issues with resupply with ferries and pontoon bridges across the Dnieper, troops on the right bank (left side) of the Dnieper at risk from being swamped if Ukrainians blew up the Nova Karkhovka Dam, and finally the Russian troops were stretched thin as soldiers 6 month contracts had ended and many didn't sign up again and remaining troops were better off relocated to the left bank to create defensive lines around Melitopol in case Ukraine tried to cut the land bridge.
It was a sensible move by Surovikin and the withdrawl went smoothly. Also anytime Ukraine tried to move back into Kherson City they faced attack from across the Dnieper.

"They are, which is precisely why the last counteroffensive was successful. Bakhmut has cost Russia far more than Ukraine and has destroyed the threat of Wagner mercenaries."

Another misconception.
Ukraine faced Russian artillery, outgunned by a multiple of about 8 to 1, and were losing troops at a similar rate.
Wagner PMC isn't just made up of inmates, they're also ex-military, well supplied and better paid than Russian regulars. That the Ukrainian military has been largely decimated by them and everything the west had without great loss to the regular Russian army shows how good they actually performed. What's left of Bakhmut (western area) is about to be cut into smaller pieces.
http://youtu.be/c135xk-Nejs

"Russia doesn't have Bakhmut yet, and I note that they have been throwing more of their forces into the fight of late. That is exactly what the Ukrainians want. The Ukrainian commanders realise that the chance of a successful counteroffensive improves with the depletion of Russian forces."

Ukraine's lost so much air defense that Russian air force is operating more freely and Ukraine faces many new weapons being dropped on them.

Russia defeated Germany, don't underestimate them if they move to full mobilisation, China will arm them.

WW2: Battle Of Kursk (Intense Footage)
http://youtu.be/2pbR2JzMn2E

AC,

Any government can boost GDP by spending vast sums of money. Russia with a GDP a little bigger than Australia is running a deficit of US$40bn per month mostly financed by the huge reserves it built up. At this rate, Russia's reserves will be depleted by the end of the year.

Russia is also losing tanks, aircraft, artillery etc way faster than it can replace them and as far as hardware is concerned Russia is at about 1/2 of the strength of where it was a year ago. The Russian offensive was extremely expensive with regards to tanks etc for very few gains.

The Western world has 50x the GDP and manufacturing capacity of Russia and is now re-arming. Russia does not stand a chance.

Russia cannot win this war.

Hi AC,

"It's a misconception, the 'Great Kherson counteroffensive' went nowhere, Russians defended well."

A tactical retreat is a good choice for an army facing defeat. At the time you were saying that Ukraine got lucky in the north but faced the real Russian army in Kherson and got smashed. At least you were saying that before the Russian army got kicked out of Kherson.

Wagner forces used to operate over a 90km front. Thanks to Bakhmut they now operate over a 5km front with the assistance of the Russian army.

From my seat in the peanut gallery Ukraine is outgunned but has better eyes and better aim. Russia is forced to use meat waves to reduce the decimation of its military machine behind the front lines. Meanwhile the Ukrainian military is preparing a counteroffensive and its chance of success is increasing with the ongoing destruction of the Russian army.

Patience AC. It should only take a few months to find out how accurate your information is.