Hi AC,

We are all in the peanut gallery on the other side of the world, so I wouldn't get too stoked up about an opinion of the conflict.

I have heard that both sides have little ability to mount attacks. Russia has the advantage of expendable troops and artillery, but despite all the shelling and attack waves it has gained bugger all ground.

Russia's repeated exposure as a perpetrator of war atrocities at all levels along with repeated threats of nuclear annihilation of countries supporting Ukraine has been a major driver of pledges of military support.

Russia, whilst it has heavier strike power than Ukraine, is less capable at locating targets and less accurate. I also wonder whether a reduction in drone and missile strikes reflects a shortage of munitions.

With Russia losing troops, wasting munitions and possibly also suffering a degradation of its electronic warfare capabilities, I think that Ukraine will be taking its time to prepare a counteroffensive. I think that Ukraine will hold off until Putin calls another mobilisation unless they see opportunity sooner.

"Another delusion! China is having financial troubles at the moment and in spite of sabre-rattling, China cannot afford secondary sanctions and it has been very clearly warned as to what will happen if it supports Russia Militarily."

I guess that's why when Ursula and Macron went to China a week back with a carrot and a stick,
China sent Ursula packing and Macron left grovelling?

http://www.voanews.com/a/seeking-to-reset-relations-eu-leaders-pay-rare-visit-to-china/7036750.html
"President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron are to land in China on Wednesday seeking to "reset" ties with an important economic partner while broaching thorny issues like Ukraine and trade risks."

Ursula von der Leyen warns China not to send arms to Russia
http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2023/apr/06/ursula-von-der-leyen-warns-china-not-to-send-arms-to-russia-video
"Our US Master tells you to not arm Russia or mess with Taiwan"

Ursula von der Leyen left China through a regular terminal at the airport...
http://en.mriya.news/116376-ursula-von-der-leyen-left-china-through-a-regular-terminal-at-the-airport

Looks like they're really concerned about European trade hey SM humiliating the EU Commission President like that...
- More like China DGAF.

EU defends PR 'disaster' of China summit
http://euobserver.com/world/156909
- Looks like big tough mouth Ursula who's applied for the job of Grand Poobar of NATO got sent packing...

Moving on to the interesting stuff...
IMF released Real GDP growth numbers

World Economic Outlook (April 2023) - Real GDP growth
http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

Scroll on down the page to the section 'Related publications' and click on 'World Economic Outlook - A Rocky Recovery - April 2023
- Then go down to Page 9 'Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections'

United States 2022: 2.1% 2023: 1.6% 2024: 1.1%
China 2022: 3.0% 2023: 5.2% 2024: 4.5%
Russia 2022: -2.1% 2023: 0.7% 2024: 1.3%
India 2022: 6.8% 2023 5.9% 2024: 6.3%

France 2023 0.7%
Italy 2023 0.7%

So Russia will be doing as well as France and Italy next year and better than the US in 2024.
(Not bad for the most sanctioned nation on earth)
China's going quite well, not as good as India but nowhere near as bad as the US.
G7 descending, BRICS ascending.

- But that's ok, because SM know's everything.

Collective west hyperfocused on ruble, as Russian economy wins sanctions war
http://youtu.be/aUGO3437rv8

Not sure I know why I even bother sharing useful info with you shadowminister...

Hi Fester
"I have heard that both sides have little ability to mount attacks. Russia has the advantage of expendable troops and artillery, but despite all the shelling and attack waves it has gained bugger all ground."
- Ukraine spent 8 years building the 'Zelensky line': 3 layers of defense, when Bakhmut falls, they don't have anything else to fall back to, only basic defensive lines built quickly while Ukrainian troops are sent into the meat grinder.
Russia will be in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in a few months.

"Russia's repeated exposure as a perpetrator of war atrocities at all levels along with repeated threats of nuclear annihilation of countries supporting Ukraine has been a major driver of pledges of military support."
- I've already been through all this at one time or another, Ukraine building defensive positions in civilian areas, and using them as human shields, fake atrocities in Bucha, Mariupol etc. killing 'collaborators', false flag attacks on women, kids and elderly, even targeting their own captured Azov.

Here's a few nice little lists for all the Ukrainian supporters
- Go ahead and read a few of the comments as well

http://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1646167187814490116
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1646101792252649474

"repeated threats of nuclear annihilation"
They aren't nuclear threats... or maybe from Medvedev
(in regards to ICC arresting Putin or attacking Crimea they are, Lol)
Russia is actually just stating it's nuclear doctrine
It's America that changed their own nuclear doctrine, look that up
"With Russia losing troops, wasting munitions and possibly also suffering a degradation of its electronic warfare capabilities"
- western propaganda
"I think that Ukraine will be taking its time to prepare a counteroffensive."
- Washington gives the orders and Ukraine obeys
"I think that Ukraine will hold off until Putin calls another mobilisation unless they see opportunity sooner."
- It'd be sensible to hold off, they're unprepared, but Russia may break through and take a chunk of territory
Putin won't call for another mobilisation atm, maybe once the Ukrainians is underway, if they do well it'll give him more public support for it
"Reduction in missile attacks" true, but glide bombs are cheaper

Also some more economic info for shadowminister...
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1646486622907793414
"The annual inflation rate in Russia fell sharply to 3.5 percent in March of 2023, the lowest since July of 2020 and compared to 11 percent in the previous month, as the base year started to include the initial economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine."
- whatever that means...

AC,

A drop in inflation is a good thing. However, the devil is in the details. Simplistically inflation occurs when there is too much money chasing too few goods and services. Inflation drops when either the money supply drops or the goods supply increases.

Given that the supply of goods and services in Russia is unlikely to have increased, this would indicate that the cash supply has crashed.

With the crash in oil revenues and the massive increase in the cost of the war, the spending on services is being diverted to soldiers and weapons.

A handful of Ukrainians have beaten the Russians to a standstill in Bahkmut and are waiting for the ground to harden before bringing in the roughly 1000 new tanks and other armoured vehicles that they have recently received for their counter attack.

Russia is losing this war.