AC,

Crimea is Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory and While it will be hard to take, it will also be very hard for the Russians to hold, as the Ukrainians can cut off water and power and there will not be one point where the Ukrainian missiles cannot reach.

The use of a Nuke would be very stupid as that is when NATO goes all in. Imagine Ukraine with 3000 M1 Abrams, tomahawk missiles etc while the Russian baltic and Pacific fleets are sunk and Russia sells zero oil.

As for Ukrainian preparation, you have been wrong just about 100% of the time so far.

As for Russian artillery:

"This overuse of artillery results in a number of issues. First, the high expenditure of rounds resulted in a staggering load on the Russian supply networks and logistic trains. Ukrainian reports claim that the Russians have depleted most of their artillery reserves. In addition to the rounds, the artillery pieces themselves are typically not made to handle firing that many rounds. Even with proper maintenance, the barrels must be replaced after a certain number of shots, and the Russians are likely depleting these barrels as well. These resupply lines have been a frequent target of Ukrainian artillery, drone and missile attacks...."

"The Ukrainians are not necessarily targeting the artillery pieces themselves. Indeed, the Ukrainians have only destroyed a small percentage of the Russian artillery carried into the war, with fewer than 400 pieces destroyed. Rather, once the Ukrainians know the location of the artillery cannons, they also know the general vicinity of the BTG. The Ukrainians can then use their arsenal of drones and electronic warfare systems to pinpoint Russian command posts, vehicles, and troop concentrations, which are subsequently targeted and destroyed...."

"Since the start of the invasion, very little has gone as planned for the Russian forces. The lack of training and experience, particularly by Russian officers, has led to the overuse of artillery. The Ukrainians have successfully exploited this issue, turning what should be a large Russian strength into one of their largest vulnerabilities."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/vikrammittal/2023/01/09/from-strength-to-vulnerability-the-decline-of-russian-artillery-in-the-ukraine-war/?sh=5016acce651c

Hi AC

" This might be enough to do all sorts of damage against a counteroffensive if they tried to take Crimea, but not necessarily enough to start a nuclear war."

Using a nuclear weapon makes it a nuclear war. If using low yield nuclear weapons was acceptable Russia would have used them already in places like Afghanistan and Syria, perhaps even in Chechnya. There is no acceptable nuclear option, and the discussion of such options by Russian elite admits the poor performance of their conventional forces.

"Using a nuclear weapon makes it a nuclear war."
- No, not necessarily.

Take note the US did it to Japan.
The question of whether it becomes a nuclear war is if the US decides to conduct a nuclear strike on a Russian city, to which Russian subs and land based RS-28 would respond in kind - then it's a nuclear war.

As a side note here, know that Russian air defence can intercept US nuclear missiles, but US cannot intercept Russian nuclear missiles.
- Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles have already been deployed to combat duty, the US can't hit them.

Russian troops get Avangard hypersonic missiles with blinding speed of 6.8 kilometers per second
http://youtu.be/4UCLuvhshnw

But we're dealing in hypothetical anyway, the biggest being an assumption that Ukraine can actually break through Russian defensive lines with an intact force enough to take Crimea which is 27,000 square kilometers of territory.

It's not going to happen.
The back of the Ukrainian military has already been broken in Bakhmut, their loss of that city will see a loss of morale for Ukrainian troops, a loss in support for the Ukrainian leadership by the citizenry sending so many men to die in vein, and a skepticism amongst world leaders for continued support of the war.

Things will likely change real quick before Ukraine can even launch their counteroffensive.
They're going to lose Bakhmut in two weeks, after that the Ukrainian military will crumble.
They've already been shooting their own men who were trying to surrender in Bakhmut, and the reason why they're doing this is because once some men surrender, more will.

I told you all it's game over for Ukraine, it's just a matter of time.
The bigger picture is that Ukraine is the end of the western empire, destroyed by it's own sanctions.

BRICS has a higher GDP than the G7, and the whole world is moving to de-dollarise. Without hegemony and control of the financial system the west can't sanction anyone.

The only question is will America go quietly.
Under Biden, it's doubtful, they're likely to start a war.

Hi shadowminister,
"The Ukrainians are not necessarily targeting the artillery pieces themselves. Indeed, the Ukrainians have only destroyed a small percentage of the Russian artillery carried into the war, with fewer than 400 pieces destroyed. Rather, once the Ukrainians know the location of the artillery cannons, they also know the general vicinity of the BTG. The Ukrainians can then use their arsenal of drones and electronic warfare systems to pinpoint Russian command posts, vehicles, and troop concentrations, which are subsequently targeted and destroyed...."

- Forget the artillery SM, without air defence Ukrainian military faces the Russian air force now.
Their counteroffensive should they even begin it will be completely destroyed, and if they wait, Russia will inflict more damage on fuel and ammunition depots, troops and armour, and Ukraine is already out of artillery shells, the Europeans couldn't come up with the 1 million shells they promised, and America had to go hat in hand borrowing from South Korea.

AC,

Your claim that Russia can intercept US nukes is wildly untrue. For example, the MX missile carries 10 independently targeted nuclear warheads and about 100 odd radar-identical decoys. Given Russia's almost complete inability to stop the HIMARS missiles, stopping more than one or two of these nukes is nearly impossible. The Sub based Trident missiles carry up to 12 thermonuclear heads which hit the target within 10 minutes of launch. Russia won't survive a nuclear exchange. Also, 6.8km/s is impossible. I believe you mean Mach 6.8 which is 2.3km/s

"The US Commerce Department on Wednesday (US time) imposed export controls on a total of 28 foreign companies for what it called "supporting Russia's military and defence industries", including 12 from China, Reuters reported." These 28 companies can no longer buy from or sell anything to the EU or US. Companies that trade with these companies risk being blacklisted too.

Secondly, Russia would be making a huge mistake if its aircraft get too close as the reports of the shortage of missiles omitted Manpads and were 2 months old, and since then there have been several shipments of replacements.

It looks as though Russia has run out of precision missiles having wasted $bns on civilian targets.