AC,

You make these wild assertions without a jot of proof,

The Ukrainian army now stands at about 500 000 and is nowhere near destroyed and has fought the Russian army to a standstill inflicting massive losses in men and materiel.

The US and EU have tripled their arms production and are now providing Ukraine with long-range missiles as well as a steady stream of tanks, aircraft etc and are a long way from running out of equipment and ammo.

The next stage will include F16s that will hammer the Russian planes.

Also, Russia is running out of anti-aircraft systems as Ukraine's HARM missiles take them out and their $10 000 drone swarms bleed Crimea's AA systems.

Hi AC,

Yes, war seems quite pointless when both sides fight for the same things.

Hi SM,

Did you see all the Kornet missiles captured in the successful flank attacks around Bakhmut? That sort of armament is one reason why the Ukrainians aren't in a big hurry to start a counteroffensive. I think that they are using Bakhmut as a testing ground for conducting assaults against the Russian forces, and the cheap drones seem to be providing good support there as well. I think that the Ukrainians would be well chuffed if they could encircle Bakhmut.

Have you seen the latest, the Russians are running away at the sight of the Ukrainians and have lost nearly 18 km2 in two days.

Wagner is down to 10% strength and the untrained Russian conscripts are not up for a fight.

They are well coordinated attacks by the Ukrainians. In one attack the Russians sent in reinforcements but were quickly hit by a Himars strike. A retired Russian officer commented on Russian TV that he thought the Ukrainian forces were accumulating the precision weapons necessary for the counteroffensive. I agree with him, but I also think that the Ukrainians are trialing assault techniques. This also puts pressure on the Russian army as they have diverted resources for an anticipated southern counteroffensive. Meanwhile Ukraine is continuing the war of attrition in which it has the advantages of precision and a better view of the enemy.

I think that the Russian army will eventually succumb to a critical shortage of equipment, but like their missile stocks this may take much longer than expected, so it is crucial for the Ukrainians not to waste resources.

Fester,

Only the delusional could look at the war in Ukraine and think that the Russians can win this.

The Russian recruitment campaign has got virtually no volunteers and is purely relying on conscripts. Russians are not stupid enough not to notice the mounting losses for a war that very few care about.

To quote Eisenhower “You will not find it difficult to prove that battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won or lost primarily because of logistics, and Russian logistics have been spectacularly bad. While the Russians started this war with tons of money, weapons and ammunition most of this is starting to run out, while for the Ukrainians the vast industries of the West are ramping up supplies, weapons and technology.

The Russian offensive has failed miserably with almost zero territorial gain with more losses than in the Afghan, Chechen and other wars since December 2022.

The question is when the Russian military collapses not if.

Hi SM,

An abbreviation is "Don't stretch yourself." as Montgomery found out in Operation Market Garden. Later Operation Varsity was a resounding success, partly because of lessons learned in OMG, but mainly because the German army was degraded and demoralised in the six months between operations.

The counterattacks of Ukraine are very well thought out and will likely be repeated along the front, especially if they are able to encircle Bakhmut. The impact on Russian morale and propaganda will be significant. Meanwhile the Russians are perhaps losing 10,000 troops and two BTGs of equipment per week. Further, now that Russia does not have enough troops for meat wave offensives the Ukrainians are actively targeting artillery and special equipment.

Why would Ukraine want to conduct a costly counteroffensive when the Russian army is being degraded so quickly and economically? It will only get easier for them and they will learn from the counterattacks.