The Forum > General Discussion > The year of enforcement - Secondary sanctions.
The year of enforcement - Secondary sanctions.
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Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 14 April 2023 4:18:56 PM
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Ukraine's hypocrisy exposed; Zelenksy 'buys Russian oil' to fuel battle tanks from U.S. money
http://youtu.be/LJoJImFz4Vg I heard reports the Ukrainian government had skimmed 400 million off the cost of diesel - paid by the US and purchased from Russia through third parties. Watch a few minutes of this... http://youtu.be/tT0I9ZvzUEo - Just like they skimmed off the cost of food for troops earlier in the war Apparently the Ukrainian Generals and others are getting fed up because Zelensky is too greedy and taking too much for himself - But this is the corruption you'd expect from Ukraine. I think the info comes from a recent Seymour Hersh article. Theres been quite a few scandals of war profiteering since the war began http://www.politico.eu/article/defense-minister-reznikov-ukraine-corruption-probe-war-russia-zelenskyy/ Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 14 April 2023 4:31:17 PM
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AC,
Where did you get your figures? They differ considerably from that of the Russian reserve bank. Consumer spending is down 10%, Wages in Ruble terms have not increased while inflation is up 11% year on year. So real wages are down by 10%. The ruble has dropped by 30% and oil and gas revenues have dropped by 50%. Posted by shadowminister, Friday, 14 April 2023 5:02:42 PM
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Hi AC,
Your view from the peanut gallery must be much better than mine. Russia has huge resources and well educated, albeit brainwashed, citizens, yet its per capita gdp is two thirds of Japan, a bit over half of Germany and well under half of the USA. It should be well above all of them and on a par with Norway were it not for its belligerence and corrupt governance. My guess is that the Russian forces will be split in three after the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Did you note that the Wagner mercenaries in Ukraine are now so depleted that they cannot maintain a 5km front? At least that means that quite a number of war criminals have been killed. Posted by Fester, Friday, 14 April 2023 6:27:57 PM
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"Where did you get your figures? They differ considerably from that of the Russian reserve bank."
I haven't checked that, but it might be old data, I'm not sure. Info from and IMF report can be found here: World Economic Outlook (April 2023) - Real GDP growth http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD Scroll on down the page to the section 'Related publications' and click on 'World Economic Outlook - A Rocky Recovery' article - from April 2023 - Then go down to Page 9 'Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections' The meeting on the Russian economy came from Putin and Ministers from the Kremlin you can find it here: Meeting on economic issues - April 11, 2023 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70897 And the 3.5% inflation rate I got from a twitter source, but it's also in an article from Bloomberg (linked below) and you can find it quoted on numerous sites on google (also linked below) Blamed for Putinflation Abroad, Russia Now Sees Prices Cool - Inflation’s below 4% target in March for first time since 2020 - Putin gets political boost as inflation decelerates sharply http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-12/blamed-for-putinflation-abroad-russia-is-now-seeing-prices-dive#xj4y7vzkg http://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=Russia+inflation+rate+3.5%25+March Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 14 April 2023 9:29:36 PM
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"Did you note that the Wagner mercenaries in Ukraine are now so depleted that they cannot maintain a 5km front?"
I haven't heard that, but you should probably also note that Russia is making progress (albeit slow) across a 1000km front. Ukraine put future counteroffensives at risk (and I heard today that they have put off their counteroffensive, - ill-prepared for it as spoken about yesterday) they've throwing everything they and the west had trying to defend Bakhmut, and they're still going to lose it. Ukraine is not winning in a war of territorial conquest, they're not winning in a war of attrition, and the collective west is not winning in its war against the Russian economy. Meanwhile people keep dying. Posted by Armchair Critic, Friday, 14 April 2023 9:38:14 PM
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http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70897
"As I said earlier, positive economic trends are continuing to grow. According to operational data, retail trade has been up by almost 25 percent since early April.
Railway loads are up as well. You and I are well aware that this is one of the most important indicators of what is happening in real life. In March, this indicator stood at about 2 percent, but in early April it was already 3.6 percent, both for domestic and export transportation.
There are reasons to believe that economic activity will continue to grow, which we can see from an important parameter like the business activity index. In March, it stood at 56.8 points, which is the third highest figure ever and clearly indicates the growing optimism and positive outlook of domestic business.
Overall, it can be said that the Russian economy continues to grow fast as part of the new growth model. As of late April, Russia's GDP will have grown a lot in real terms.
These economic dynamics are reflected in the budget indicators as well. In the first quarter of this year, the country's consolidated budget revenues exceeded 13 trillion rubles which is in line with last year's figures, but the dynamics are good overall.
Notably, non-oil-and-gas revenue grew by about 14 percent, or 1.4 trillion rubles, while oil-and-gas revenue is slightly down by about 1.3 trillion rubles, which is primarily due to the high base and pricing environment specifics on the global markets last year.
As expected, the situation will have changed by the end of the second quarter when oil prices will rise, and extra oil and gas revenue will begin to flow into the budget."
You can read the full transcript of the discussion from the link given above, but it seems that supply of goods and services in Russia has indeed increased.
I think I also heard that the weakness in the ruble and exchange rate from foreign currencies is having a positive impact.