Pauliar,

Bollocks! when NSW reaches the lockdown months or Covid deaths that Victoria has endured then you will have a point, presently Victoria has been locked down far more and had far more deaths than any other state.

Dear mhaze,

Are e having fun yet?

So then I WAS talking about cases. But I'm now confused, if I was talking about cases then why did you respond with: "When in fact the death rate in Australia was 0.03 per 100000. So you were wrong by 56000% ie the number you thought you'd correctly calculated was 566 times greater than the facts."

Please tell me what I need to disregard so I can understand what I am suppose to respond with.

As you are the acknowledge guru on all things mathematical this will be a piece of cake.

But I should give a heads up. According to that rag the Guardian:

"The New South Wales chief health officer, Dr Kerry Chant, revealed on Wednesday that of the 37 people currently in hospital with Covid in the state, 14 were under the age of 55. Eight have not yet turned 35.

Chant said that of the seven Covid patients currently in intensive care in NSW, one is aged in their 30s and one is in their 50s, while two are in their 60s and three are in their 70s."

We both know this is a mathematical impossibility given your extremely robust figures. I'm about to write a nasty letter to the editor and hold them over the coals.

Um, just a little unsure what to write. Any chance you might give me a tip or two?

Oh dear Paul, I'll have to stop doing 'mock' with you. You just don't understand when you're been sent up. I was sending up the fact that you'd never believe a word Jones says. But when he says something that suits your immediate needs, suddenly he becomes, to you, a fount of wisdom. Pretty funny really.

As to the communists converting to Nazism, well yes most of the German Communist Party's leadership was sent to concentration camps. But the rank and file simply changed their uniforms and carried on as before. Nazi membership increased by 50% in the month following the banning of the communist party and almost all of that were ex-communists.

I know you have little interest in factual history when it doesn't support your views but if you want the truth on this I'd refer you to Shirer's "Rise and Fall" and/or Norman Friedman "Fifty Year War". Or this quote from the 'Münchener Post' in 1933..."The leadership of this party installed the hatred of Social-Democrats into the hearts of millions of workers, and this very hatred now caused them to flee to the brown ranks of the swastica. Many Communists who on Saturday were still wearing the Soviet star as they were walking, manifested themselves as crack new Nazis on election day."

But it wasn't a one-way street. Most of the members of the communist party in East Germany after the war, were ex-Nazis.

SR,

Oh I thought you got this but clearly its too hard. Unfortunately I can't really dumb it down any further.

"We both know this is a mathematical impossibility"

Well you might think that but then you really don't understand the statistics, do you? As I showed you (although clearly I lost you somewhere along the road) the death rate in Australia for under50s is .03/100000. Since there are about 5 million under50s in NSW that means you'd expect around 2 such deaths in NSW. Equally, since you are talking about cases rather than deaths (do you understand the difference or do I need to explain that as well) we'd expect to see around 400 cases in NSW for under50s per month.

So unless you want to advertise your ignorance on these issues to a wider audience, I'd not put pen to paper.

Now I hesitate to mention this since clearly the maths is already too complex for you. But all of this really ought to be treated as an issue over time. So in your original 'analysis' (to give it an undeserved description) you were comparing the data for covid over 18 months with flu data over 12 months. So to do a proper comparison you'd need to convert covid data back to yearly figures. Good luck with that.

Dear mhaze,

I think I am getting it now. I WAS talking about cases and you WERE talking about the death rate.

And so my CASE figures were 56000% out compared to your DEATH RATE figures.

Whew. That is as clear as...

I'm not even sure what it is as clear as but I'm sure it's something at least.

See I knew we would get there eventually. Good to see we are on the same page at last.

As to those so called real world examples we needn't worry ourselves over them. They have little bearing on the quite beautiful statistics you have furnished us with.

Aren't we lucky to have you.

SR wrote: "I think I am getting it now. I WAS talking about cases and you WERE talking about the death rate."

Unfortunately no. You were talking about cases and death rates and erroneously comparing the two.

You originally wrote: "One thing is certain though, even working off the 5 deaths figure in 30,000 Australia CASES it is many times worst than the ordinary flu. It translates to 17 per 100,000 while the flu DEATHS of under 50s in the US sits at 3.5 per 100,000."

(my capitalisation to show the point).

I'm not arguing a different criteria here. I'm not offering a different comparison. I don't agree in the slightest with the idea of comparing Australian WuFlu rates with US flu rates.

I'm simply correcting your infant school level errors of calculation and primary school level errors of statistical logic in order to make your errors less....erroneous.
I was simply pointing out that if you're gunna do this you need to compare like with like which was a million miles from what you were doing.

SR, I know that you are flailing about here like a T1000 in molten metal (http://youtu.be/0mpgHKlixRY) to try to find a form of words that will give you even an iota of a resemblance to knowing what you're talking about. But why bother? We both know what happened here. And we both know that despite the fact that you royally screwed up, in 3 months or 3 years time, if it comes up again, you'll tell anyone who'll listen that you totally nailed the math and had to teach that dill mhaze about statistical logic. You've already done it several times so why change.

So why fret about getting it wrong now when you can convince yourself in the future that you were totally right?