Jaybe again I agree with SOME of what you say, believe me this thread is not about me pushing my known bias.
It is my true opinion of what is taking place and why.
Labor will win the election, Shorten will not win a prefered PM poll.
He had a brilliance I can no longer See, he may get it back as PM.
He will be much liked as PM.
UNIONS that would be the CFMEU, lets look at that, honestly so far left, they fund in part Greens and Labor, and keep Katter in parliament by funding him and seeing [until now] Labor preferences him.
Thugs and Mugs is my view of them BUT.
In a crude effort to kill them every right worker must have at work has been torn up in work choices and continues today, by conservatives our to using even known lies, get the CFMEU no way while waiting for nature to take its course will I buy the anti union stuff
continued

So yes two sides to that, my view that union harms the movement.
Today we may see Wentworth lost, if it is even close surely it tells us the war within the Liberals is real.
I truly honestly think here and in America the right, by its actions, re-powers the left, or in truth [please not that leftist stuff again] opposition.
Democrats took a dreadful team/party in to that election.
It defeated its self as much as Trump won.
Democrats will evolve, as they are even getting Republicans switching to them.
Labor split would only kill the party,well a left split would kill that new party, a right? no room exists in my view, but yes reforms will come for the existing ALP.
So we arrive at my view, true small l Liberals exist, are unhappy and if a new party based on that formed it would be very close to government in its first election and continue to both grow and take the place of its birth party

Hi Belly,

The only third party in Australia to obtain long term success, and eventually succeed to a position of government is The Australian Labor Party. Yes Belly your party was once the third force in Australian politics behind the oddly named Free Trade Party and Protectionist Party. They were basically two conservative parties that ruled at time when political power was confined in the hands of the elite minority of society, the well off, the landed gentry etc. Once progressive change took hold, and universal suffrage became the norm Labor took off. Australia was a radical leader in the non violent struggle that brought about the necessary polical and social changes that is the basis of Western democracy as we know it today.
The men who formulated the Constitution, were mostly members of the elite class and designed the voting system to heavily favour the big two, what we call the "two party preferred" outcome. They seen political stability as a must, and that could only be ensured if the vote was confined to a choice of two, and that is what we have today. This will work as long as the big two obtain more than 50% of the primary vote between them. Should their combine vote drop below 50% then chaos will reign. With the big two vote dropping from a historically high 95% in the early 1950's to around 60% today, chaos is on the improve.
The only niche party that has had long term success is the sudo conservative Country Party (Nationals), but they have been smart enough to make themselves needed by the big conservative, with their 5% vote which gets them a seat (several seats) at the table of government.
I didn't answer your question, but I will later, with a qualified yes.

Paul1405,
excuse my ignorance but does sudo mean ?

IMHO a third force is more likely to be more independents.

Far to many voters sick of the parties.

Problem all parties face is becoming irrelevant to real needs of voters, as more and more party activists run their parties, then take representative positions.

Real needs of voters often conflict with policy as decided by party activists working hard to remove conflicting issues.

Those closer to conflicting issues, see these contradictions as normal. Their goal is balancing worst results so more can feel at least partly satisfied.

This requires taking at times uncomfortable positions.

Party activists avoid uncomfortable positions.

Most voters start thinking politics from uncomfortable positions.

.

Fake or an imation indy ,again the small party,s bit.
Small party,s remain small because they have policies other do not want.
Any observation of say Italian politics post ww2 will highlight the very real truth about how chaotic small party,s make governing.
Paul my regards, knew but blinded to it by these days events.
YES both sides are wallowing in self interest, not voters, yes we want too much, and no party can deliver.
While both need reform, small l Liberal would be reform.
Wentworth, nothing we say here can change the result, but tonight for sure and certain, within the ranks of the Liberal party thoughts of a new way will not be rare
Anothe Howard or Hawke will come for both sides, and we will again see voters return to the big two
Smaller parties will never ever replace the two