Hi there BAZZ and HASBEEN...

Hi BAZZ...

Many thanks for correcting my erroneous claim that the Caltex Oil Refinery at Kurnell had already closed. Nevertheless, if we (Oz) don't watch ourselves, we're going to find ourselves without any oil at all ! Australia is a very large, and mostly under developed country, and our reliance on oil, in which to power our motor vehicles to travel large distances, is extremely necessary.

One doesn't need to be an 'actuarial fellow', to fully appreciate we do need our oil. In fact we have an indispensable necessity for our government to ensure we have sufficient oil reserves to power our nation for years to come, without relying on others abroad determining what quantities and at what cost, our needs are !

Hi (again) HASBEEN...

Absolutely ! Without any refining capacity we're at the mercy of overseas concerns who can charge us anything they like. Secure in the knowledge that our huge country needs oil in ever sense.

Naturally, our government realises this, and they're doing everything possible to ensure we retain some refinery capacity ? Like bloody hell they are, they're simply relying on our overseas 'friends' to deliver any and all our oil needs ? Will we ever learn ?

o sung wu,

We probably won't.

I remember when we purchased weapons from Sweden (IIRC) and because they didn't like us being involved in Vietnam, they wouldn't sell us any ammunition to use there.

Jayb, there are 100s of thousands of dry capped wells around the world
and some no doubt would have been able to produce some oil but not
enough to be economic. If they are viable, why would they be drilling
in 5000 to 10000 feet of water then go down 5 miles under the sea bed,
risk blowouts like the BP Horizon disaster, dig up bitumen in Canada
heat it with natural gas, struggle to get oil & gas out of tight oil
which requires continuous drilling to keep up with decline rates of 50%
a year, the Red Queen syndrome, a real Ponzi scheme, go up into the
Arctic, when all they would have to do is truck their pumps to Longreach
and lo and behold $Billions !

Sorry,there are other companies, including Linc Energy at Chinchilla,
operating in the area. Do you think they would not know about the
area and apply to have the leases transferred to themselves because
they have been undeveloped. I just don't believe the Queensland Govt
would refuse.

I just don't see it !

O Sung Wu said;
Absolutely ! Without any refining capacity we're at the mercy of overseas concerns who can charge us anything they like.

Indeed but it is worse than that.
Imagine you are a screen jockey for an Australian oil buyer.
You place an order for a tanker load of petrol & diesel (we are importing 100%) from Singapore and the phone rings;
It is your bosses boss in London or New York and he says drop that
order we want it.

What do you do ?

They won't just screw us on price they will starve us !

It is the overseas attitude to Australia, they do it every day.
Take the Nissan price of the Leaf electric car $51,500, $21000 more
than the US price.

Don't know Bazz. That's what I was told 50 years ago. You may be right. I know they do hold "Future Stocks" in emergency reserve which is fair enough I suppose.

Aussie Boys original question was;
What Happens to Australia when world oil reserves run low ?

Actually the problem is not reserves but production.
It is the size of the Tap not the size of the Tank.

We will gradually get higher petrol & diesel prices until demand drops
and the price will stabilise at a new price point.
However the new price level reduces the level of economic activity.
This is the zero growth era.

World trade will contract to very low levels, in that only high value
low weight products will trade internationally.
All trade will become local. Repair of electrical equipment will again
become economic.

International travel will be too expensive for the average person.
Interstate travel will be by electric train. Branch lines will be
powered by gas engined locomotives.

I would not expect any problem with electricity supply.
Coal can be hauled by electric locomotives.

The biggest problem we will have is food production.
Farmers will have priority for diesel or CNG and trucks delivering to
the silos will have the same priority.
I have seen one figure on food production & delivery.
Every calorie of food requires 100 calorie of oil.

All my musing above is the first era effects.
There are differing opinions on what happens next.
There are system collapse studies that show that complex systems such
as our industrial economic civilisation is a very complex society and
that it will collapse very suddenly.

The Egyptian society collapsed fairly slowly but Rome collapsed
faster, in a hundred years instead of a thousand years.

Well Aussie Boy does that answer your question ?