Runner: its a long time since I voted Labor, may have been back in the late 70's/early eighties, when unions (I was an APTU member)meant something for working blokes and their families. Believe it or there exists many like me who believe in old school social justice ideals, a fair go, and the need to always look after the most vulnerable in our communities. If you think Labor is leftist, then you've got a lot to learn about what really matters for ordinary grassroots people. In my professional life I've had to negotiate with successive state and federal ministers - and to tell the truth the better ones were from conservative parties. At the end of the day, it comes down to very simple ideals about what government can do,(and mostly not) about many of our social, economic and cultural matters. Your simplistic dichotomy of Left and Right might be useful for you to launch yourself into discussion here on OLO, but it means jack sheet out there on street, in our communities, dealing with real issues.

Rainier and Runner,

Here's an outside bet:

* Somebody other than EITHER Gillard OR Rudd vs Abbott

at an April election.

What are the odds ?

Loudmouth, yes I think you're on to something there: but it would need to be someone who can convince the electorate that Labor is no longer run by factions and its hard to pick someone (other than Faulker) who has the political vintage and intellectual rigor required. Keating lamented about the absence of a big picture narrative and I agree. Gillard's 'getting on the work to be done' is not enough. We need more than bureacrats pretending to be leaders.

* Latham reckons its Stephen Smith but he's from WA (that other country). I'd vote for Humphrey B Bear or Bob Ellis if they threw their hat into the ring, anyone but some trumpt up cyborg from the rank and file Labor factions. Queensland Labor is infested with these career politicians - all of them with big heads and no brains.

Well, i didn't suggest that either Gillard or Rudd or x woud win the next election for Labour, I think they're gone. So if I were Shorten, I would knock back any kind offer of leadership, wait for the dust to settle after the next election, modestly take it then, and then work like buggery to build the Labor Party for an election win in 2018 or so.

Politics must be a strange business: on the one hand, yes, a week is a long time in politics etc., but building a winning party needs enormous patience and endurance over many years.

A bit like waiting for positive results in Indigenous affairs, really. A hundred Indigenous university graduates back in 1970 and 28,000-30,000 graduates now. Fifty thousand Indigenous university graduates - one in every six adults - by 2020-2022. One hundred thousand graduates - one in every four adults - by 2034-2035.

And always with the hope and faith that all that effort will have been worthwhile, that it will transform the Indigenous community and the place of Indigenous people in Australia's open society.

Suddenly I sympathise with Bill Shorten :)

Loudmouth, Rainier, anyone who took that on would be on a hiding to nothing. I don't think even JC could turn Labor around quickly, & believably enough to win. Anyone who tries it has, most probably, shot their bolt. Smart players would keep their powder dry for a better time.

Most of these blokes only get one shot. Howard only got two because he was very good, but even more important, very lucky with circumstances & timing.

After the next election, I reckon it will be at least three failures, before a Labor leader has a real chance again. By then a few state libs should be in trouble, & most folk will have forgotten just how bad Labor is at a federal level.

Loudmouth I sure hope you are wrong with your predictions for university graduates by 2022, & even more so for 2034.

We currently have people with below average results from year 12, [down to OP15 in science courses for gods sake], winning university places in the first round of offers. I doubt that anyone below the top 15 or 20% have any chance of absorbing much math, let alone physics.

We need a change in recognition of the trades, & their importance. At least the remuneration for the work has caught up. After all, we can't keep cutting class sizes, just to take up a host of almost useless graduates as teachers, & our councils all ready have more than enough glorified clerks.

What we need by 2020 is to reduce the higher education sector by around 50%. We could end up back where we used to be, with smart people, finding better ways of doing things, because smart people actually did things. By the way, do you think many of those B grade academics could learn how to use a shovel?