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The Forum > General Discussion > A Million Or More Refugees From Ukraine And China

A Million Or More Refugees From Ukraine And China

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Don't you think that if the Russian foreign minister was openly lying, that people would've called it out?

"So AC, your claims about the Russian language being erased are just rubbish and simply a regurgitation of Russian propaganda."

What because you say so?
That a foreign minister and diplomat who holds probably more respect than any other in the world must automatically be lying?

"All that happened was that the Ukrainians made Ukrainian the official language of the state and required that it be used in all bureaucratic dealings."

- So hows that work exactly?
All the Russian speaking people in the east of the country have no voice or representation without someone who speaks Ukrainian and is aligned with the nationalists in the western part of Ukraine?
- But they all wish to enrich themselves with the profitable eastern part of the country.

All this speaks to the reality that the Russian speaking people and those parts of the country should be separate and independent to the Ukrainian speaking part of the country.
- There's no other realistic option, except conflict.

I'm lead to believe the three best foreign ministers are

Sergey Lavrov, (Russia)
Subrahmanyam Jaishankar (India)
Péter Szijjártó (Hungary)
- Don't know much about the latter.

But I really have to say that after yesterdays events of Saudi Arabia and Iran reestablishing diplomatic relations and agreeing to reopen embassies in each others countries, that China’s most senior diplomat, Wang Yi is probably up there as well.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 12 March 2023 10:03:25 AM
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Look at the attitude of these people
http://www.skynews.com.au/insights-and-analysis/tread-carefully-the-west-is-heading-for-a-truly-ugly-scenario-if-putin-is-replaced-with-a-more-radical-leader/news-story/27a73a21e212051533019f287ab87dd1

"The good scenario is based on the assumption that Putin can be replaced by a more liberal alternative who will adopt a friendlier approach to the West.
Such a candidate would stop the war, withdraw Russian forces from Ukrainian territory, return Crimea back to Kyiv, pay the Ukrainians reparations for the collateral damage caused by the invasion and gradually demilitarise the country.
That would all be in exchange for the West lifting sanctions and major companies returning to Russia.
In essence, the new leader’s goal would be to reintegrate the federation into Western civilisation.
This time last year, most in the West truly believed this was an achievable scenario."

Who the hell is the West to assume that everyone on the planet should do things their way like subordinate vassal states built in their own image, - that countries don't have any right to do things their own way?
- They don't even represent half of the worlds population.

The US isn't even the world leader anymore, China is.
Saudi Arabia moving towards China, means the petrodollar is doomed.
Iran and Saudi Arabia will join BRICS.
That means BRICS nations new currency will become the worlds reserve currency. That the US will lose it's reserve currency status and the world will dump US dollars, have little need for them, being able to trade in oil without the US currency. America not be able to fund it's debt obligations and collapse.

Beyond that China is the world leader in 37 of 44 critical technologies, drastically outnumber STEM Phd graduates and the West cannot possibly keep up. Also China's industrial manufacturing base is greater than US and Europe combined.

The world is changing, and if the US keeps sending weapons to Taiwan, China is going to send weapons to Russia.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 12 March 2023 10:16:39 AM
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Just reading more of this article

"The tsunami of sanctions was supposed to make the Russians desperate, forcing them to take to the streets and possibly storm the Kremlin and overthrow Putin’s government."

- Is that or is that not 'collective punishment upon the people?
They went bat-shite crazy when their own citizens did the same on Jan 6, peacefully I might add, but they make out they were stormed by armed insurgents

"Many hoped an internal coup would be instigated by Russian oligarchs, in partnership with liberal and pro-Western factions of the President’s administration.
None of these hopes came to fruition.
Those who opposed the Kremlin and the war fled the country or were silenced.
Oligarchs were to told to put up or shut up; Putin’s address last month to the Federal Assembly contained a thinly-veiled threat to those oligarchs whose loyalty to their country was diluted by their loyalty to their personal wealth."

- Trying to cause internal conflict, playing the people off against the government, as part of standard policy towards other nations.

"As a result, the only way to make the “good” scenario a reality is to bring in a charismatic opposition figures who currently lives in exile.
Can it be done?
The answer is yes, but not through any democratic process – such opponents have no hope of winning over Putin - but by a regime change instigated from abroad."

- Install a US aligned puppet ruler, just openly stating it.

"This eventuality would almost certainly require foreign military intervention, which would presumably prompt a nuclear response from Moscow.
I seriously doubt the West would want such an outcome."

- Were going to do this stuff to you, but we must minimise any risk that you might actually something to us, like nuke us for example.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 12 March 2023 11:23:43 AM
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"The 'bad' scenario would involve Putin staying on as leader and eventually transferring his powers to a political heir.
How realistic is that?
It can work if Putin manages to pull off a miracle and achieve major military success in Ukraine this year.
He could also reach an interim political settlement with the West over Ukraine without losing too much political face.
That would likely involve some concessions and the partial lifting of sanctions in exchange for suspending military action, allowing Putin to sell a pragmatic victory of sorts to his electorate.
Under other circumstances, the patriotic Russians who Putin mobilised and weaponised so effectively last year would simply vote him out or, in the worst case, replace him by force with a more radical alternative."

"Putin being replaced by a more radical successor would be a truly ugly scenario.
It would not lead to peace, only to further escalation.
Under this scenario, a radical leader in the Kremlin, who would almost certainly be backed by the government’s vast security apparatus, the military and the defence industrial complex, would transform Russia into a truly militarised state.
An all-out war would be declared on Ukraine following a full-scale mobilisation, and the few remaining restrictions on the use of brutal force would be lifted.
The war would continue until the full occupation and devastation of Ukraine is achieved.
As a form of further escalation, the Russians may threaten the Baltics with full occupation, and Finland with a select takeover of its territory unless it withdraws its application for NATO membership.
NATO’s activation of Article 5 (which does not in reality mean an automatic declaration of war upon an aggressor) would be countered with blunt threats to deploy tactical nuclear weapons against targets in western Ukraine and Poland.

The Russian navy may stage deep sea sabotage operations and damage transcontinental communications networks, including submarine cable systems.
The Russian Pacific Fleet would likely join China in blockading Taiwan."

I think I've made my point, you can all go read it yourselves.
US foreign policies and the way they treat other nations are pure madness.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 12 March 2023 11:31:02 AM
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AC,

"Don't you think that if the Russian foreign minister was openly lying, that people would've called it out?"

They did. Its just that you restrict your 'research' (for want of a better word) to those sites that tell you what you want to hear. Therefore you didn't see others call him out. But you won't understand that.
eg http://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/jun/08/sergey-lavrov/russian-has-not-been-banned-ukraine-despite-repeat/

"What because you say so?"

No, not because I say so. I was inviting you to do your own checking. But clearly that's beyond your capabilities.

I could show you lots of places where the Russian claims have been debunked, but that'd be futile because you'd just assert they are western sites and therefore, in your world, wrong. So here....go to the source document and try to work it out for yourself. Or not.

http://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2704-19#Text

Its laughable that you are so far in the Russian propaganda trap that you can't even conceive of Lavrov lying. If only you had that rudimentary historic understanding you'd see how moronic that is.
Posted by mhaze, Sunday, 12 March 2023 11:51:20 AM
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AC,

You are being a half-wit. Because someone speaks Russian does not mean that he is ethnically or culturally Russian. The Ukrainian army is full of people that speak Russian but identify as Ukrainian. This is why in 1990 Crimea and Donbas voted very convincingly to leave Russia and the Soviet Union.

As for your scenarios:

1- Russia calls for a cease-fire.
The lifting of any sanctions and the ceasing of arming Ukraine will not happen until Russia leaves all of Ukraine. Russia continually violated the Minsk agreement and cannot be trusted.

2- Russia goes full Nazi and begins a general mobilization.

The problem with this is that Russia is not the Soviet Union. In 1940 the USSR had a massive industrial base with much of it in Ukraine. Since 1990 Russia has lost its heavy industrial base in Ukraine, and the military-industrial complex has withered with the focus on oil and gas leaving Russia with only one factory capable of building tanks and the Mikoyan and Sukhoi aircraft industries having to merge to compensate for the lack of orders and the loss of qualified people. To get these industries working again is not going to take a fiat from Putin, but at least a couple of years of investment and training before any meaningful results. Russia cannot replace the materiel it loses.

The only benefit to the Russian army of a general mobilization will be a boost in the number of conscripts (This will also cause a second exodus of qualified young men) and these conscripts will need to fight without the backup of tanks, IFVs, and artillery that the Ukrainians are so deliberately targeting. This will be met with a surge in armaments of increased lethality from the US and allies they had previously held back.

A Russian general mobilization will inflict more damage on Russia than Ukraine. The possibility of Russia occupying the whole of Ukraine disappeared with the massacre of Russian tanks and equipment in the original attack on Kyiv and Kharkiv.

Russia cannot win this war.
Posted by shadowminister, Monday, 13 March 2023 7:26:44 AM
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