Larry brings out meteorologist confusions over Climate Change.

Dr Debbie Abbs, of the CSIRO's division of Marine and Atmospheric Research, said "we can't attribute the strength of Larry to climate change. The scientific consensus, however, was that global warming was expected to increase cyclone intensity, on average, in future because hotter surface waters would feed more energy into the weather systems"

Associate Professor Kevin Walsh, of the University of Melbourne, said it was difficult to predict the cyclone activity for particular regions because it was also influenced by factors such as El Nino and La Nina events.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/climate-change-not-to-blame-for-larrys-force/2006/03/24/1143083999506.html

Comments:
Cyclones have three independent stages. This is why confusion exists.
Stages:
1.Inception - a strong heat source plus upper atmospheric movement
2.Tracking - hig and low entropy patches allow cyclones to virtually track down-hill
3.Landfall- always a highest entropy, polluted zone of shallower coastal water.

(1) is responsible for frequency of hurricanes, (2) for intensity and (3) for dollar damage. All 3 effects are equally independent and greatly confused by scientists.

PS Researchers in the US are developing an interactive database on which scientists can record cyclone data to help resolve the link between global warming and storm intensity.

This may provide a solution to confusion about cyclones.

Bring it on!

Since I realised that contributors to this forum do best if they have a BOBFFAE (a Bigoted and Obsessive Belief that Flies in the Face of All Evidence) and have gotten one myself (that Basque ETA, Nepalese Marxist and Irish Republican terrorists are really Muslims) I have been less subject to attack by other contributors.

Weird?

But I have become interested in analysing others' BOBFFAEs. KAEP's has gone feral, and seems to have eaten his brain.

No other contributors to this discussion seem to realise that KAEP's belief that "90% [of global temperature rises] is due to human pollution of coastal seas and the resulting thermodynamic imbalances..." is simply rubbish.

Not much has changed, at least in Australia, since C P Snow observed in his 1959 lecture, "The Two Cultures and the Scientific Revolution":

"A good many times I have been present at gatherings of people who, by the standards of the traditional culture, are thought highly educated and who have with considerable gusto been expressing their incredulity of scientists. Once or twice I have been provoked and have asked the company how many of them could describe the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The response was cold: it was also negative. Yet I was asking something which is the scientific equivalent of: Have you read a work of Shakespeare's?"

No matter.

The country prospers from digging up the countryside and shipping it to China, and formerly, from bribing Middle East dictators to pay us for overpriced wheat.

Mike,

A GWOBFFAE is a Global Warming, Obsessive Belief that Flies in the Face of All Evidence)

And Mike, you are a FIGJAM poster-- A F%%k I'm Good Just Ask Me poster!

However your delusions of grandeur are understandable.
Forget GW and CHG theories, everyone-on-this-planet-needs-to-consider:

* 6.5 billion people have an average wastewater footprint of 1000 litres per day when power stations, agriculture (plants and animals), industry and sundry infrastructure are accounted for.
That is 6.5x10e12 litres per day that flows into coastal oceans and despite our magical wishing that it dissipates to zero, hangs around in patches and plumes for long half times.

* The probability (entropy) that this human-specific-pollution will occur normally is very-very low. So the Entropy is very high. Irregardless of any physical, biologocal, chemical or electromagnetic analyses of which mets only ever examine a small part of the physical domain, this high entropy will attract heat from proximal sources. This is not action at a distance. Diffusion processes across all energy domains leads heat to the high entropy sinks. Atmospheric processes become entangled as the diffusion of pollutants takes place, reactions occur and kinetic energy is released to atmospheric layers.

*When you consider 1-2 week residency times for pollution boluses, a continual supply of pollutant carrying wastewaters, eddy effects which can segregate and maintain pollutant concentrations and
diurnal heating and geologic heating effect segregations, it is not hard to see a coastal ocean entropy map emerging. This consists of adjacent isolated areas of high and low entropy year-round. Maps of the US Gulf already show strike lines toward Houston even without the actual cyclonic activity present. In times of peak heating, upper air currents can easily twist atmospheric systems above these segregated zones and initiate cyclonic activity. What then guides it is the adjacency of high/low-entropy zones that effectively form a downhill line. This was apparent in US hurricane 2006 season and in cyclone Larry. It is ominously present NE of Darwin at present.

*As coastal metropolises/civilisations accelerate so too will the volume of and toxicity of coastal plumes. This-is-around-90%-of-human-wastes when you consider landfill-seepage,atmospheric-gaseous-dissolution-and-direct-runoffs.

Speaking of disbelief.

The latest differential SST map of the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) is showing 10% more heat advancement than the disasterous last year hurricane season. It is probably due to the jet stream dragging heat from the GOM to recent tornado sites, thus drawing more heat from the south. That is quite unbelievable in and of itself. BUT ITS TRUE!

To make matters worse, sea height differences show a direct chain of collapsing wave segments of alternating entropy moving towards Houston from the main heat entry point to the GOM at the Yucatan straits.

There are two lines of sea height anomolies running into the Yucatan area:
* 45W10N running up to the Yucatan
* 55W25N a weaker line running past the tip of Florida

Both ENTROPY gradient paths lead on to Houston.

Last year the first hurricane Arlene is stated as beginning at 83W17N
but probably arose from the 45W10N pathway as most hurricanes entering the GOM have a Nth African origin.

So moving to lat17N the existing Yucatan path probably yields the start point of 75W17N for the first 2006 hurricane in the GOM. Since last year's first event was 8 June this year's first hurricane could be around 1 June or even earlier.

Look out Houston! Shut down those sewers NOW.

After this, entropy zones rearranged by anticlockwise movement of the first hurricane will cause some cyclonic activity in Mexico.
Early July will probably see a second attack on Houston or perhaps New orleans.

If current wastewater disposal modalities persist further predictions can be made for the 2006 season. At any rate satellite data analysis similar to the above will determine this more accurately at the appropriate times.

So everyone is on the same page.

The following are standard conditions for cyclonic formation. None are mutually exclusive of thermodynamic considerations as already presented.

1.Sea surface temperatures above 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) to at least a depth of 50 m (164 ft). The moisture in the air above the warm water is the energy source for tropical cyclones.

2.Upper-atmosphere conditions conducive to thunderstorm formation. Temperature in the atmosphere must decrease quickly with height, and the mid-troposphere must be relatively moist.

3.A pre-existing weather disturbance. This is most frequently provided by tropical waves—non-rotating areas of thunderstorms that move through tropical oceans.

4.A distance of approximately 10 degrees or more from the equator, so that the Coriolis effect is strong enough to initiate the cyclone's rotation. (2004's Hurricane Ivan was the strongest storm to form closer than 10 degrees from the equator; it started forming at 9.7 degrees north.)

5.Low vertical wind shear (change in wind speed or direction over height). High wind shear can break apart the vertical structure of a tropical cyclone.

Only specific weather disturbances can result in tropical cyclones. These include:

1.Tropical waves, or easterly waves, which, as mentioned above, are westward moving areas of convergent winds. This often assists in the development of thunderstorms, which can develop into tropical cyclones. Most tropical cyclones form from these. A similar phenomenon to tropical waves are West African disturbance lines, which are squally lines of convection that form over Africa and move into the Atlantic.

2.Tropical upper tropospheric troughs, which are cold-core upper level lows. A warm-core tropical cyclone may result when one of these (on occasion) works down to the lower levels and produces deep convection.

3.Decaying frontal boundaries may occasionally stall over warm waters and produce lines of active convection. If a low level circulation forms under this convection, it may develop into a tropical cyclone.

From Wikipedia.

Publishing ideas provides credibility in the eyes of readers. For instance, published actual measurements from NOAA show we are currently experiencing a measurable rise in average global temperature. (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2005/ann/global-blended-temp-pg.gif)

The rate of global averaged sea-level rise is estimated to be in the order of 2mm a year, which is an order of magnitude larger than the average rate over the previous several millennia. (http://www.marine.csiro.au/LeafletsFolder/45slevel/45.html). This is in agreement with findings form National Oceanographic Data Center,(NOAA) and with data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level review.

In regards to disappearing pacific islands:

the Carterets' people became the first to be officially evacuated because of climate change…The Carterets will join many other Pacific islands that are on the point of being swallowed by the sea. Much of Kiribati, the Marshalls and other low-lying island groups might only be visible through a glass-bottomed boat in decades to come….Two uninhabited Kiribati islands, Tebua Tarawa and Abanuea, disappeared underwater in 1999, according to the South Pacific regional environment programme. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1650406,00.html)

As sea level has risen, Tuvalu has experienced lowland flooding. Saltwater intrusion is adversely affecting its drinking water and food production. Coastal erosion is eating away at the nine islands that make up the country.’ (http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update2.htm)

"The constant erosion of our beaches and frequent events of storm surges threatens not only our homes but the land we grow our crops on. In one village, Naikeleyaga, the beach has eroded 10 metres back [so] that it now threatens the school for the children.

"If we are constantly forced back inland by the sea, in time it is unlikely for us to relocate as all four villages are surrounded by high limestone cliffs. The only option then would be to abandon our island, but I hope that day never comes." …"Communities all over the Pacific are alarmed at coastal erosion and the advancing sea levels. We are already seeing signs of whole villages having to relocate - as in Vanuatu - or important cultural sites such as burial grounds in Fiji being eroded,"
(http://www.wwf.org.au/articles/climate-refugees-in-a-drowning-pacific/)