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Will the Ukraine stalemate spawn climate catastrophe? : Comments
By Andris Heks, published 7/6/2022It is not every day that you hear two of the world's shrewdest senior voices in international affairs, George Soros and Henry Kissinger agree.
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Posted by Armchair Critic, Thursday, 9 June 2022 5:51:52 AM
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Thank you everyone for your thoughtful comments and your fascinating series Armchair Critic.
Here are a couple of responses I received from friends which you might want to comment on: 1: Russia’s Shrinking War Thanks for your Article and your desire for peace is so strong. In the New York Times over the last week there has been a different reporting of Russia’s War against Ukraine. Two different reports have indicated Russia is losing ground in the major cities there and today they are saying the goals of Russia’s invasion keep getting smaller. Its depleted military is still failing to make major advances, and time is on Ukraine’s side. It is interesting that most reports and historians, journalists here as well are saying the War could go on till Christmas. I have little time for Kissinger and his type so I’m more optimistic that if more young Russian soldiers are growing weary or going home in body bags then this will put a huge amount of pressure for Putin to take on. We need a World Body (a new Security Council arrangement) that will operate more effectively. It has always failed because of the ’veto’ mistake. Doc Evatt knew that in 1948. My feeling is that Putin will cave in – either by having a stroke – a Russian uprising – or maybe Divine intervention. It happens when one stupid idiot make a war without reason. As you have gathered I’m the eternal optimist. As a pacifist it is hard for me to admit this but when the world has a tyrant of the magnitude I believe the is a case (for the common good) to bump him off if he can’t be caged or imprisoned. A World Government has to have the power to contol monsters like this, just like we have to shoot the wild dog if he gets to the chickens. I like your writing Andris – you make us all sit up and think! Posted by Andris, Thursday, 9 June 2022 10:26:55 PM
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MY SECOND FRIEND'S COMMENT:
I enjoyed your article. It is a good, dispassionate examination of the two main Western approaches to the problem that Putin has given us all to solve - how to avoid escalation without acceding to Putin’s demands. It is, of course, early days yet, and Putin may be forced to cease his efforts to subdue Ukraine because of lack of support in Russia and lack of performance by his army and air-power. However I think it will be quite some time before these factors really determine the outcome of the war. You also mention Chamberlain and the lessons most Western leaders have drawn from their studies and analyses of appeasement. These lessons will remain in the forefront of most Western leaders’ minds for quite a long time, encouraging them to stay on the war path. And also there are the historical forces which motivate Ukraine to make huge sacrifices and refuse to make a deal with Putin. Russia is also under the influence of its many wars with Ukraine and other people who have lived there during the past several centuries. They share a deep historical enmity. This is quite a special type of war in which the opposing forces will be willing to persist with the use of force. Ukraine will continue to look to the West for key military assistance, and they have several levers to use to keep the West willing to supply necessary support. Putin will be driven by dread of the consequences of losing the war. It is a very nasty prospect for us all, and not many people are aware of the consequences of a protracted war for our planet So, bravo to you Andris for your efforts in throwing light on this major problem that we all need to share in solving! Posted by Andris, Thursday, 9 June 2022 10:28:28 PM
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Hey Andris,
I'm on the side of 'I don't support sanctions because I think it's collective punishment of entire nations and I don't support overthrows or 'liberal intervention'. - This means I support Russia, by default, but I think its bad that all these people are dying and suffering because of it. - And I blame the West for all of it for overthrowing the country in 2014. What you need to understand is that while both sides are fighting for territory, Ukraine is fighting for territory at any cost, whilst Russia is fighting to destroy the Ukrainian military. Ukraine taking back 20% of Severodontesk is only digging them deeper into that cauldron. Another thing you should look at is the 'Follow the money' issue. Whilst this war rages on, all those Bilderbergers and elites as well as the Military Industrial Complex AND US politicians and bankers (including IMF and US government) are making a heap of money. Posted by Armchair Critic, Thursday, 9 June 2022 11:18:50 PM
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[Cont.]
The average Joe Blow small businessmen (and women) are going bust. - While the larger multinational companies (Bilderbergers) can absorb the cost, consolidate and take over more business. - And ALL citizens the world over are paying for ALL OF IT. Let me get some stats... For starters fuel prices in the US yesterday hit a record in all 50 states. Change in market value by sector since 24th Feb 2022, Coal +42% Offshore Drilling Services +42% Alternative Fuels +38% Fertilizers +26% Crude Oil Production +21% Waste and Disposal +18% Arms Manufacturers +15% Electrical Components +15% Renewable Energy +15% Oil Equipment and Services +12% Infrastructure REITs +12% Timber REITs +12% Oil Refining and Marketing +12% Financial Data Providers +10% Agricultural Commodity Traders +10% Healthcare Management +9% Diversified Financial Services +9% Hotel and Lodge REITs +9% Integrated Oil and Gas +9% Pipelines +8% http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/goldman-sachs-profits-ukraine-war-loophole-sanctions-rcna19584 How much do you think defense contractors are making? Pentagon Prime Contracts Issued to the Top 5 Weapons Contractors (Separate from the daily amounts shown on the US DoD website, actual amounts are much higher) FY2019 and FY2020 respectively Lockheed Martin 47.1bln / 75.2 bln Raytheon 26.3bln / 27.8bln General Dynamics 16.5bln / 21.8bln Boeing 15.6bln / 21.7bln Northrop Grumman 14.2bln / 20.3 bln How much do you think US politicians are making? Theres is a list, but too much for me to go into here http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nancy-pelosi-stock-trades-meme-investing-litquidity-paul-pelosi-alphabet-2021-9 Others are making a lot of money off this war, while we're all paying for it. Posted by Armchair Critic, Thursday, 9 June 2022 11:20:49 PM
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Hi Armchair Critic,
I couldn't agree with you more that it is the military-industrial complex who need and promote wars and make a mint out of them. Now at last, Putin let the cat out of the bag. Having lied that he wasn't amassing his troops at the Ukrainian border for starting a war, then calling it 'a special' operation to de-nazify and demilitarise without land grabbing, now finally Putin admits that he is really after Ukraine's whole territory to conquer and make it part of a resurrected Russian empire. Peter the Great is his idle. After Peter annexed the area of today's Saint Petersburg, named after him, from Sweden - Putin tries to console himself, that foreign nations refused to recognise it as part of Russia. So all he is doing now, like Peter, is simply restoring Russia to its ancient empirical greatness. It's a holy war, blessed by no other than the head of the Russian Ortodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, an ex KGB operative billionaire. Even though the EU wanted to put sanctions on Kirill recently, Hungary's PM Orbán sabotaged the proposal. So Putin can still hope for annointment as St Vladimir by Kirill. Posted by Andris, Saturday, 11 June 2022 9:24:35 PM
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As well as that western countries economies are severely strained, runaway inflation (their own fault for printing too much money during Covid), food shortages and high energy prices, talks of rolling blackouts in UK, US and here.
Even KFC is now substituting cabbage for lettuce.
And if China wishes to take Taiwan, there's not much the US can do, they'd be overstretched.
Russias new Zircon hypersonic missle can reach speeds of Mach 9 and change trajectory mid-flight with a range of 1000klms. (That's Sunshine Coast to Sydney)
Most Taiwanise want to remain neutral, not become independent as doing doing so will cut them off from mainland China.
The west may try and burn down the whole world not to allow China to rise and exceed them economically, but it may now also have to accept a multipolar world.