SR,

Oh dear..." It is the figure which will be exceeded only 5% of the time."

That's not it at all. Struth, after all your woes around confidence intervals in regards to AGW data, I'd have thought you got this by now.

The number is a prediction based on previous years adjusted for increased population and changing demographics. The answer is therefore a range. This number is the number where they can be 95% sure its accurate within that range.

If it was the number where it was "exceeded only 5% of the time" then it would be exceeded 5% of the time. And its not.QED.

You originally wanted to use this data but clearly you have no understanding of what it means. The pictures just seemed to show what you wanted to believe and it started and ended there.

You make these claims like the prediction not being being based on previous years and then when I show that it is, you just move onto other baseless assertions without ever acknowledging the earlier error.

Out of the blue, you suddenly want to talk about NYC, and then when I point out the ramifications of the NYC data, you just as swiftly go back to ignoring NY all over again.

Its like trying to hold custard. It can't be done because it doesn't have any substance.

I can't help but notice that you are now totally ignoring the fact that the adjusted deaths for 2018 look very like the deaths for 2020 ie its just another flu season as someone brilliantly opined way back when.

Its clear we are now in the SR water-muddying phase. Last time that happened I just dropped out of the thread which you took as a retreat. You'll probably puff up your self-esteem again on the same basis. But really I'm not interested in chasing you down these various rabbit holes again.

Dear mhaze,

You flail away;

“The number is a prediction based on previous years adjusted for increased population and changing demographics. The answer is therefore a range. This number is the number where they can be 95% sure its accurate within that range.”

Lol. No mate it isn't. No range was given. It was strictly a single figure threshold that they pretty well set at the standard 2 deviations above the expected number. This is basic statistics.

“From the very website itself; “The upper bound of the 95% CI more readily identifies areas experiencing statistically significantly higher than normal mortality. “

Your figure of 1028953 was the sum of the threshold figures wasn't it. It was not the average at all was it.

Come on mate, you have been caught with your pants around your ankles and you are trying to claim you are wearing skin coloured lycra.

I use to take it on face value you had at least a rudimentary handle on this stuff but perhaps not. For now I will assume you are trying to cover a stuff up and this is just an aberration. Or you could just come clean and preserve some respect on this.

Mhaze,

86,000 in a bit over a month.

3,000 were killed on 9/11. Imagine, across the 28 biggest cities in the US, a 9/11 event in every one of them.

Maybe 3,000 killed didn't worry you much back in 2001. More people die falling from Russian windows every year. More die in the US from falling trees each year. 3,000 - ptuh ! 86,000 - flea-bites !

Open up the economy NOW, quick, before the curve can come down ! Support the Curve ! Drive it up ! Let the US have the best curve in the world ! We strong ! We brave ! We can take it ! Bring it on ! We can beat it in a fair fight any time !

Where's my latest Captain Marvel comic ?

Better still, old Abbott and Costello comics.

Joe

They flashed the cash, and a couple of tinnies, and it seems Boofhead Malone from the Nullarbor Wanderers finally got the jab, despite the excruciating pain. According to Boofhead the jab was more painful than the stiff arm he received from Knockout Ned McGurk of the Rampaging Ratbags in last years grand final won be the Ratbags 67 to 66 in extra time, when "Boots" Smith of the Ratbags kicked a controversial field goal right on the siren, all while Boofhead Malone lay concussed on the side line from that stiff arm of Knockout Ned's.

Boofhead said he can't wait for the footy season to kick off again, when he can square up the account with Knockout Ned. The opener, a replay of last years grand final between the Wanderers and the Ratbags. The grudge match will be played before a capacity crowd of sheep and goats in a paddock up yonder way cause they can't use the bloody regular patch, cause of the bloody virus.