It has been recently announced that the Queensland Govt has decided that 3 NRL players are to be stood down because they refuse the flu jab. What ever happened to my body, my choice. If the rest of the boofhead league players have their shot and it works how is this a risk by having them play? Personally by God's grace I am over 60 in good health and never received the flu shot. This is an extremely slippery slope.

Hi runner,

My body my choice?

And here I thought you were going to discuss
abortion with that heading.

Flu jabs? We live in a country where we are lucky
enough to have immunisations available as a
preventative measure. We need to take advantage
of that while we can. Why wouldn't you? It helps
to lessen the impact on you and on others. And
if you are lucky to have missed out thus far - its
probably because others have been immunised around
you.

My body my choice is a anti vaxer saying. What about a bio security risk. That is what a anti vaxer is.
It's all about them.

Dear runner,

This is because the players will be travelling interstate or playing against interstate players. State's rights mean they can dictate requirements for those entering their jurisdictions. These rights are enshrined in the constitution.

A MenACWY vaccination is a requirement to get into Mecca. Yellow Fever vaccinations are a mandatory requirement for Australians travelling to certain countries.

What is the difference?

so if all the other footballers have had their jab why would they have a problem with these men who object?

A number of people I know are religious about the flu jab and yet often end up with flu (of course another strain). Seems to me there are to many health officials finding new found powers imposing them on all. And of course these footballers must hate old people and their own children because they refuse the flu shot. When did we become so dumbed? Yep the science is settled just like we would never see dams filled again or snow on our alps.

Kids dying of whooping cough. Now that is great parenting. they need jailing.

Runner,

Yeah, I'm browned off that I have to drive on one side of the road or the other, on the left-hand side here in Australia. Which just goes to show how Commie all the so-called jurisdictions are.

Where are my citizen's rights to drive as I please ? Sure, when there are trucks coming the other way, I'll stick to the 'correct' way, the 'authoritarian' way, but otherwise, why should I ?

So where's MY sovereignty ? MY rights ? Bloody Commos.

Joe

Their body, our problem is the view from a different angle !

notice that no one can give a rational or civil answer as to what danger these guys are to the vacinated. And don't give me the kids rubbish otherwise it should be mandatory for every parent to get the flu shot. I am not sure where you went troppo Joe raving on about driving on the wrong side of the road. TDS has certainly affected your reasoning ability.

runner,

Read Steele's post. He's explained things quite
clearly as to why these guys need a flu vaccine

Steele has also provided a rational and civil
answer.

One worth trying for yourself.

Runner,

The flu is a coronavirus that is just as contagious and while generally far less lethal is known to kill athletes that over exert themselves. A flu vaccine while not 100% effective significantly reduces the risk to a rugby player vaccinated and those playing with him.

A player has the right not to be vaccinated, but similarly the other players have the right to be protected from him.

A player has the right not to be vaccinated, but similarly the other players have the right to be protected from him.
Shadow Minister,
Exactly ! It's simple matter of consideration & care .

yes, I agree with most here, individual has right, but society must also make decisions that protect society.

That is what a liberal democracy is about: balancing the importance of the liberal and democratic dimensions, albeit the importance of each will vary from issue to issue

Let NRL sort it out. They are continually demonstrating how smart they are: Folau, that silly woman.

" [The States] can dictate requirements for those entering their jurisdictions"

Maybe. But this isn't being dictated by the states. Its being dictated by the NRL, admittedly while they have the states hold a gun to their head.

The flu vaccine has been around for years, n'est pas? But plenty of players have played in past years without having had the jab. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall the sky falling in in those past years. Were great swathes of players struck down after being breathed upon during an errant tackle?

So what was acceptable in the past, is suddenly verboten. What's changed? Well the closet totalitarians have had a taste of petty power and have found that they quite like the idea of micro-managing other people's lives. And they have no intention of letting up.

"If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever." Orwell

so its obvious not many have confidence in the flue jab because they think the 1% who refuse can harm the 99% who have the jab. Interesting the afl are not going down the same draconian path.

A flu Jab could be part of the rules in NRL.

Vaccination is now compulsory for kindergarten attendees. If you want to be part of a team, get vaccinated. If you don't want to be vaccinated, don't join the team.

Dear mhaze,

You have repeatedly pointed out over the last month or so the high toll from the flu each year because you were wanting to downplay the corona virus, that was until the reality of tens of thousands of extra deaths finally shut you up.

Now you are wanting to downplay the flu toll to suit this new argument; "The flu vaccine has been around for years, n'est pas? But plenty of players have played in past years without having had the jab. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall the sky falling in in those past years. Were great swathes of players struck down after being breathed upon during an errant tackle?"

Either the spread and poll of the flu is serious or it isn't. If you could land on one particular position that would be great.

Hey individual,
"but similarly the other players have the right to be protected from him."

I don't necessarily think others have a right to be protected any more than they have a right to protect themselves.

On the one side of the argument we have people being proactive and taking responsibility to protect themselves by wearing personal protective equipment.

On the other side we have people demanding to be protected from others, and that other peoples freedoms should be curtailed under medical martial law.

I hate it when people give me the flu, I really do.
But would you all rather it be criminalised instead?

Armchair Critic,
It has nothing to do with freedom or perceptions or personal feelings.
It's all to do with discipline towards others & oneself ! I'm aware that this is an incomprehensible ask these days for some but, as we can't function or indeed exist without others it is imperative that we consider & care about others.
We must be more tolerant for a little personal sacrifice in order to to keep us all functioning during times of crisis. We must come to realise that it's not about what 'we want' it's about what 'we need' !

Shadow Minister , sorry but the flu is not a corona virus. It is caused but several different viruses, none of which are corona. The common cold is a corona, as is SARS and MERS, but not the flu.
But in saying that, I’m not sure why the sudden insistence on a flu jab. Perhaps officials think that if a player gets the flu, then COVID on top, it will be fatal.
I honestly don’t know.

of course everyone ignores the bad bunch of the crap put in people's bodies that made many sick not to many years back. Amazing how fear has made draconian laws acceptable. Shows you no wonder really believed the thousands of twits who wee closing down cities with their tantrums while supporting the corrupt renewables industry a few months ago.

Sr,

I'm not sure if you fail to follow the logic or just can't help making things up.

I simply observed the regular increased flu toll. I never played it up. It was there in previous years and was there again this year.

"tens of thousands of extra deaths..."??
We've had less than 100. Get a grip. US total deaths appear to be down or relatively unchanged. Only some places in Europe have excess deaths as compared to the same period in previous years and even that will need a longer period to analyise.

But we were talking about the flu shot, not your attempted changing of the subject. There was no requirement for a flu shot in previous years, even years where the flu was much worse than this year. So why is it required now? Do you realise the flu shot isn't protective against the WuFlu?

Answer: because the authorities think they have the right to impose unreasonable restrictions using the WuFlu as a cover.

When they start demanding that other professions get the jab (eg why exempt teachers?) then I'll think they are sincere. But at the moment its clear that they are just satisfying their urges to power

thanks for being a voice of reason Mhaze.

Dear mhaze,

You write; "US total deaths appear to be down or relatively unchanged. Only some places in Europe have excess deaths as compared to the same period in previous years and even that will need a longer period to analyise."

You really aren't very good at this sort of stuff are you.

This is the excess deaths graph for the US if you scroll down. The crosses are the actual figures. Now select the drop down for New York.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

How in God's name can you claim the US deaths appear to be down or relatively unchanged? What sites are you going to for your information? Fox news?

Mhaze,

Not sure if you're on our planet: the US has suffered eighty thousand deaths (don't they mean anything to you ?) in barely six weeks, and looks like hitting one hundred thousand before the end of this month ? And given the uptick in the curve, at least two hundred thousand by the end of June ?

Was there an item on the news yesterday that the US was just getting around to closing off air travel into the country ? Or just from Europe ? Three months after Australia did that ? Ah yes, three months ago, as Trump says, this virus was no worse than the flu. That all makes a sort of cock-eyed sense now.

So the US is nowhere near getting on top of its Curve. And the longer they leave it, and just keep their eyes covered with their fingers, the more Americans will die (what are you and Trump, some sort of Chinese agents ?) and the longer it will take to overcome this chaotic disaster, and the harder and longer it will hit the economy. This could ruin America. "Make America Great Again ?" Jesus.

Like putting the dumbest kid in school in charge, not just of the school, but of the neighbouring hospital as well. And the local council. Rule by ignorant imbeciles.

Joe

Dear loudmouth2,

mhaze in spades I fear.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rl8ygBpv_I

yep Joe once you hook on to the lying narrative you go on to steroids.

SR
" Now select the drop down for New York."

Oh so NOW you want to talk about NY! Previously when I wanted to talk about how the bozos running NY were skewing the entire US response, you ran a mile.

I'm not entirely sure that the CDC data is the best place to go, but their data still shows my point, so OK.

From the page you link, you'll find an option to download a CSV of the actual data. Now I know you prefer to look at the pretty pictures rather than trouble yourself with that mysterious maths thingy, but try to stay with me.

Load that CSV into a spreadsheet and do some sorting of the raw numbers and you'll find that so far this year they've predicted 7770 deaths in excess of their so-called threshold ie expected number based on previous periods. So 7770 people over the year in excess of what would happen in a normal year.

Remember that's 7770 in a total count of 1,036,723 deaths. Given that it's estimates being used here, that's within the MOE.

I assume you're lost by now, but rest assured its not quite tens of thousands?

And while LM wants to rend his garments over all the WuFlu deaths, we do need to remember that roughly 4 million people die each year in the US, China virus or no China virus. Do I need to mention TDS here?

But back to the issue in this thread, "New South Wales chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant said it was up to the NRL whether it wanted its players to have a flu vaccination.". A lone voice of reason.

And something's going wrong in Victoria because they're showing some rational thinking in letting the Storm train in Melbourne.

"What sites are you going to for your information? Fox news?"

I never watch Fox. No I was basing it on a series of articles that commented on the fact that the CDC figures showed deaths in March were lower than expected based on previous years. Even your pretty pictures shows that.

Dear mhaze,

You wrote;

"Load that CSV into a spreadsheet and do some sorting of the raw numbers and you'll find that so far this year they've predicted 7770 deaths in excess of their so-called threshold ie expected number based on previous periods. So 7770 people over the year in excess of what would happen in a normal year. Remember that's 7770 in a total count of 1,036,723 deaths. Given that it's estimates being used here, that's within the MOE. I assume you're lost by now, but rest assured its not quite tens of thousands?"

ROFL.

Are you really going to stand by those figures or would you like a chance to go back and do them again?

'Single mother-of-three paralysed from the face down after getting free flu injection at the hospital where she worked

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3101906/Single-mother-three-paralysed-face-getting-free-flu-injection-hospital-worked.html

Oh well does not fit the narrative of those evil people asking questions. What a bunch of sheep.

yep vaccinated men afraid of getting flu from objectors and there is outrage. Women gets flu shot at work, ends up paralysed but nothing to see. Not to mention a young healthy father ending up severely disabled getting a whooping cough vaccination last year. Oh well the experts must be always right.

Nothing in main stream media. Sounds like something that was made up to suite the occasion. The flu shot has no live culture involved, and this year it's a double dose for those eligible.

No baby should die of whooping cough because of intentionally misleading B/S. You have a debt to society for double payment.

SR,

Dropped the NYC issue I see....good idea.

The numbers were the ones you relied on. I merely looked behind the pretty pictures you thought were so convincing.

Another way to look at this is to compare the estimated deaths in 2020 with the average deaths in the previous years. Again your 10's of 1000's can't be found.

"ROFL."
I'm sure in some circles that is the height of repartee. But among adults...not so much.

'No baby should die of whooping cough because of intentionally misleading B/S. You have a debt to society for double payment.'

unless covered by skin then feel free to murder it.

For those who prefer their data in pictorial form....

http://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1f11285fb79044455fd0e055adafb21930a729a27d4394dc234eb1d18756e48a.jpg

runner,

Do you know the legal definition of murder?

Are you referring to first degree murder,
second degree murder or homicide,
manslaughter? Also the laws vary state to
state.

You have to be a bit more specific in your
drive-by comments.

Foxy

If you are a baby being sliced up the definition of murder only becomes important to those trying to justify barbarity. In some cultures giving young girls to old uncles is abhorrent. The fact that it is legal does not reduce how repulsive it is.

runner,

The question is a basic value judgement about the
human status of the fetus.

If the fetus is considered a baby, then abortion is a form
of killing. If it is considered a mere collection of
cells and tissue, then abortion is a morally neutral
surgical procedure.

Herein lies the dilemma.

The status of the fetus is inherently ambiguous.
It is neither-self-evidently a human being nor self-
evidently just tissue. For it these matters were
self-evident, there would be little disagreement
about abortion.

On the one hand, the fetus is not a human being in the
usual sense, for it is generally not viable. Indeed
no society treats the fetus as human, for example if the
mother accidentally miscarries, the fetus is not given
a funeral but is simply disposed of like any other tissue.

On the other hand the fetus is not like just any other tissue,
such as discarded nail or hair clippings. The fetus is
potentially a human being one that might become as alive
and unique as you are.

The conflicting value judgements about abortion stem
from this fundamental ambiguity in the status of the fetus.

It is wrong of you to make sweeping blanket statements regarding
this issue when there is so much ambiguity involved.

The arguments about abortion have nothing to do with the unborn being a baby or not. Calling him or her a fetus instead of a baby is just justification. The issue is that they don't want the baby, are pressured that they are throwing their life away, or any other pro abortion perspective to guilt, scare, or harass women to not consider doing the right thing and having a child.

The justification of it being a baby or not can be simple and easy to answer. Just look at ultra sound pictures from conception to birth.

On another point though, there's also the points from the bible. John the babitist while in his mother's womb, kicked with joy when around Mary when she was pregnant with Jesus. There are other points in the bible where God talks about knitting us in our mother's womb, and having a plan for us even before we are born.

NNS,

Few issues in recent years have so divided people
as has the morality of abortion. Until relatively recently
the practice was generally illegal except under limited
conditions - primarily where the health of the mother or
the unborn child was at serious risk.

However "backstreet"abortions by private physicians or
even untrained practitioners were fairly common.

Today not surprisingly opinion polls show public
confusion on the issue of abortion.

The great majority of the population supports abortion in
cases of rape, incest, or a threat to the mother's life,
but support for a mother's right to abortion on demand
fluctuates between just over and just under half of the
population.

In any event the abortion rate must be seen in the context
of social changes in premarital, marital, and family life,
particularly the climate of sexual permissiveness and the
sens of individualism that leads people to make decisions
primarily in terms of their personal desires rather than of
traditional norms.

To Foxy.

The more you know about abortion the worse you realize that it is. When I was a kid, I thought along the ideas that it's a woman's choice, a woman's body, and no man should have a say about it. There were several mixed messages about how horrible men are in society, so that idea of protecting women and protecting their choice was a dominate idea for me back then. Perhaps it was an idea drilled into school kids heads much like other activists ideas for better or worse, that get taught and indoctrinated into children who don't question it.

Then the moral issues come into play. The arguments of a woman's body and a woman's choice lose ground when considering the baby's body, and their assumed choice to want to live. Arguments of the need for abortion based on the social situation the mother might be in, such as poverty, or otherwise a bad situation, also come up short when considering if you should kill a newborn under the same situations. Which leads to the justification that the unborn is not a baby. The truth is in the pictures. And we have gotten a lot of ultrasound pictures of babies still in the womb. All of these things come with just the smallest amount of knowledge regarding abortion and just thinking about it as a moral sense and nothing more.

(Continued)

(Continued)

However go into deeper waters and abortion goes away from a moral thing, and possibly a thing that men have no right to comment on, into a truly sickening thing. The sort of thing that is compared to holocaust ovens to get rid of the mass amounts of cruel and needless deaths. The knowledge starts with just the numbers. How many abortions occur each year. This moral issue becomes sickening by understanding the volume of the practice.

Then comes the method. How the abortions are done is a barbaric tell that I looked into only to find horror and disgust. Add that to the scale that it's done and it is a truly savage practice. But then it gets worse. The last piece of the puzzle is that this is an industry. And then it clicks into place the lobbyist and the persuasion you hear about for laws to let girls get abortions without the need of their parent's knowledge or consent. There is an industry for abortions. Doctors and facilities that are only there for the sole purpose of abortions, and they are always busy. Then the question comes up. Do you let your kids go to surgery without your knowledge or consent? And yet it's become a thing that should be allowed and even encouraged for young girls to do instead of talking to their parents. Something is very very wrong when the monetary value of abortions is added into the equations.

I fear that there is still more to learn about abortion. That it's still somehow worse then all of this. But the truth is that the more you know the worse it is. People who are on the fence about abortion are on the fence because they don't know.

'People who are on the fence about abortion are on the fence because they don't know.'

almost NNS they don't want to know.

Dear mhaze,

Oh this might be really good fun.

You said; “Dropped the NYC issue I see....good idea.”

I haven't dropped NYC at all its just that the figures you were putting up were so fantastical that I was a little gobsmacked.

You said: “Remember that's 7770 in a total count of 1,036,723 deaths.”

The place doesn't even have 9 million inhabitants. So they expected deaths of 1 in every 9 residents? Lol.

Mate go back and have a good hard look at the figures. I will admit to missing you when you went off with your tail between your legs last time so I'm giving you yet another chance to reassess.

Take it.

NNS,

Many women feel that a decision about abortion should be
a strictly personal one, and they deeply resent other
people insisting that they should bear a child they do
not want to have.

But here too there are ambiguities. Half the genes in
the fetus were contributed by the father, and although the
woman must bear the child, society may make the father
responsible for the child's support for nearly decades
thereafter.

If the father waives his responsibility - for example
deserting the mother - then of course he has no further
rights in the matter. But if he accepts his
responsibility and wants the child born, what are his
rights in relation to the mother's right to control
her body?

And, for those who believe that the fetus is human,
there is a third party present; the mother is
controlling not only her own body, but somebody else's
potential body and life.

There are other abortion-related issues that go
beyond the immediate concerns of the parents. Some see
abortion as the thin end of a wedge leading to
euthanasia or the "mercy killing" of defective newborns
and infirm old people.

Some point out that the global population is soaring
uncontrollably at a time when we cannot adequately feed
hundreds of millions already alive. Some argue that
because abortion will occur whether it is legal or not,
it is better that it take place legally and under proper
medical supervision.

Some claim that the welfare expenditures and other costs
of raising millions of unwanted and often illegitimate
children must be taken into account in any decisions about
abortion.

Some have firm personal opinions about abortion but are
unwilling to impose their views on others who may have
different views. And as time goes on, the legal, ethical,
and medical complexities have not abated.

We could go on discussing this matter. Few issues
in recent years have so divided the country as has the
morality of abortion. But I don't want to divert runner's
thread so I'll leave it here.

I just want to add - that my children and
grand-children are the lights of our lives.
However, I am in no position to judge the
decisions others may make. I have been
very lucky in life, and blessed.

Take care.
Stay safe.

To Foxy.

I understand wanting to let the topic go. It is a different subject then the topic of vaccinations. However I think I should reply to what you've written.

Many of the issues you've brought up are based on moral perspectives and different philosophies. That women should be the only ones that make the choice is a strong narrative that I've heard throughout my life. However after knowing more about abortion, I don't care if it offends women to stand against it. They can resent it all they want, this is a practice that needs to stop. One of the issues with that position is that most abortion related services are very pro-abortion. It's their industry so why wouldn't they be. So the console they give to women who are worried and vulnerable is aimed at them getting an abortion, and comforting them by saying it's ok. But they don't give all of the options for what a woman in her situation can do . (And there are many situations pregnant women are in). All of them are reassured it's ok, and that abortion is the best choice for them.

If abortion is strictly a woman's choice then it should be known what options are available for women who are pregnant but are scared. Or a hard look at the common situations that women are in when they come to abortion clinics should be looked at so that those situations aren't alone with abortion as the "only solution." The hard fact of abortion being a very rich industry cuts a lot of the moralist arguments about abortion and leaves a grimy stain of being manipulated.

(Continued)

(Continued)

The other arguments such as the rights of the father; or that abortion is the gateway practice towards other industries of death; that the cost of the babies are too great; or that no one should stand against abortion and force their views on others. All of those arguments are so far down the line of concerns when the details of abortion are made known. Even the cost of babies and population scares is nothing compared to killing a person. Then add the numbers and it's not just killing one person it's killing a lot lot more.

I can't stand by while the issues of society are ignored and abortion is handed out as if it's the only real solution. The world is broken in many ways; society is broken or at least hard in many way, and people in general are broken in the same ways that the world is broken, with the same lines of hardship and suffering. But those don't justify killing an unborn baby.

If the argument is that it's a woman's private choice, then give her the options and let her know the tools to get out of the situations they are in. Anything less then that approach shows that idea as a sham, and the abortion industry as a manipulative and greedy organization. When it comes to abortion, the more you know the less you like. That's why I say that the only reason to be ok with abortion, or to be on the fence about it, is because people just don't know. I'm sorry but it doesn't matter how many people resent anti-abortion perspectives. The only way to get out of this is for people to know and to act on that knowledge and change the world around them.

SR

"You said: “Remember that's 7770 in a total count of 1,036,723 deaths.”

The place doesn't even have 9 million inhabitants. So they expected deaths of 1 in every 9 residents? Lol."

You really do struggle with numbers don't you?

Those figures are for the whole of the USA.

7770 extra deaths in the whole of the USA.

Out of expected deaths of ~1 million for the whole of the USA.

Trump is the president for the whole of the USA.

If you took the NYC figures out then the whole of the USA has done extremely well.

I shouldn't really blame you for not getting this. Getting to the data and analysing the actual numbers is hard. Just going with the approved memes is much easier.

Mhaze,

82,000 deaths from this virus across the US, and counting. So far, after only a couple of months, Covid-19 has increased the US annual death rate by 8 % - after only a couple of months, just when the HWOTUS is encouraging states to lift restrictions while the Curve is still high. So a second wave on top of a high first wave. High ? The most deaths of any country in the world so far ? 82,000 ? Sounds high to me.

So expect around 100,000 deaths per month until the Curve is controlled like it is here, thanks to Morrison. So 700,000 more deaths by the end of the year, to a grand total of around 800,000, or an 80 % increase in the annual number of deaths, if your figures are accurate. 80 %.

Yes, if he avoids jail, Trump might fade into history next year with some memorable achievements under his belt.

A possibility: this disaster will threaten most Republican Congress seats in this year's half-term elections, so pressure might grow for Trump to consider his health and 'take leave' (or 'otherwise' vacate) from the most crucial job in the US. And well before the elections too.

Joe

NNS,

Thank You for sharing your views on abortion.
It is a complex and controversial issue.
A choice that I luckily have never had to make
nor am I sure that I ever could,
so I'm in no position to judge others who do/did.

Take care.
Stay safe.

Even on the subject of rugby players getting flu shots have sent those with TDS into a spin. Funny how whatever he does sets off the regressives. That's what hatred does to you. No consideration from the socialist that China just might have something to do with the deaths. Of course not when you can direct your hatred towards Trump. Really is sad to see however thankfully so many Americans have woken up to your deceit an fake news.

Since SR was suddenly very anxious to talk about New York, I pulled the data from the CDC just for New York City. It show excess deaths for the period to 25/4/20 of over 16000.

So excess deaths for the whole USA (including NYC) of 7770 but excess deaths for NYC of 16000. So the rest of the USA showed 8000 LESS deaths this year than would be otherwise expected. I'll pause for a second while I let that sink in.

Now remember these are official CDC numbers. I can't validate that they are completely correct since some of them involve estimates. But they are certainly in the ball-park.

Now I now that several of you have averted your eyes every time I mention that 49.5 states in the US are doing better than most of the rest of the world and that its only the bozos running NYC that are causing the real problems. But again these numbers demonstrate that point.

From LM: "or an 80 % increase in the annual number of deaths, if your figures are accurate. 80 %."

Huh? if the CDC figures are correct the number of deaths this year will be similar to each of the previous three years.

A WuFlu death isn't necessarily an extra death. Most of those people were already ill and a portion would have died this year anyway. Doctors in NY are already commenting on the apparent decline in heart attack deaths due to people dying of WuFlu instead. And there is good evidence that the numbers of WuFlu deaths is exaggerated since they oftern count people who died WITH WuFlu rather than those who died OF WuFlu. As one wag commented.."Man taken by alligator..died of CV19"

Just taking the reported number of deaths and treating each one as an extra death utterly misunderstand the whole issue

Mhaze,

So 80,000 Americans haven't died from this virus ? There won't be another 100,000 by the end of the year ? Or 200,000 ? i.e. up to a quarter of the annual deaths across the US ? With curbs to immigration, maybe an actual reduction in the US population by the end of 2021 ?

It's all fake news ?

Of course, Trump may have scuttled off to his rat-hole in Florida by then. [Some rat-hole].

Another minor and irrelevant prediction: Melania will leave him early next year.

Joe

don't worry Mhaze Joe is still cheering on Russian Collusion.

one that may calm you a little Joe.

https://www.facebook.com/TheTacTimes/videos/233952317700381/

seems like your anti Christ may have been right about treatment

Runner,

Weird how your mind works.

How do you leap from Corona deaths in the US to Russian collusion with the US ?

Collusion on what ? Covering up Corona deaths ? Yes, maybe. I think both countries are in very dire straits over this virus. Strange - well, no, not so strange - how the combination of arrogance and incompetence creates such dreadful tragedies as are befalling those two would-be empires.

So of course, both have vested interests in covering up their failures. You're right there, Runner :). [Jeez, I don't write that often]. And China too. And Britain. And most European countries. Our PM can be rightly proud of having the courage to go early and go hard.

Historically, it's possible that both the US and Russia are heading for historic disaster. Couldn't happen to two nicer bullies.

Joe

'Historically, it's possible that both the US and Russia are heading for historic disaster. Couldn't happen to two nicer bullies. '

Oh Joe and I thought you had not read the end of the book. You certainly want to hope for Australia's sake that the US does not go under. Then again with so many fools embracing Marxism maybe we deserve what we get.

Dear mhaze,

This is what you claimed; “Load that CSV into a spreadsheet and do some sorting of the raw numbers and you'll find that so far this year they've predicted 7770 deaths in excess of their so-called threshold ie expected number based on previous periods. So 7770 people over the year in excess of what would happen in a normal year.”

You are a scream. To get such a low figure you would have done something like count deaths which didn't make the threshold as surplus to be then taken off those above the threshold. Am I right?

Utterly dishonest but not unexpected.

The threshold used is the “Upper Bound Threshold for Excess Deaths”. This is the threshold which warns of an outbreak. It is NOT the 'expected number based on previous periods' at all.

Further they quite clearly state; “Negative values, where the observed count fell below the threshold, were set to zero.”

But you ignored that didn't you. You decided to use figures which were the result of a less than potent flu season to subtract from the Covid toll and state the case for Covid19 not being that extraordinary.

Perhaps sticking to the pretty pictures might be advised for your good self. It seems you get beguiled and bedazzled when hard numbers are placed in front of you.

Silly, silly boy.

Runner,

No, you misunderstand me: yes, Russia and the US are heading for a disaster by opening up far, far too early, but the US will come out of better than Russia will, and I think it will be able to take its place again in the forefront of economies in barely ten years.

It will be a different world by 2030.

Joe

You see, this is why its so hard to have these type of conversations with you. You utterly misunderstand the maths, convince yourself otherwise and then make assertions based on the misunderstanding.

Yes, in this scenario the CDC does ignore weeks where the numbers of deaths don't exceed the prediction. But that's because they are answering different questions. What they are looking for is what they call "the burden of mortality" ie weeks where the medical system may be under stress due to higher than expected deaths.

But that's not the question I was seeking to answer. I was looking for the overall numbers of excess deaths in the period by comparing the number of deaths and the predicted number. Oh and despite yet another misunderstanding from you, the predicted number is based on past periods..."Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected." (from the technical notes). Want me to explain 'historical trends' to you?

So I totalled the number of deaths for the year to date and compared that to the number of deaths predicted YTD.

To confirm the calculation I did it for previous years as well.

It probably won't make any difference to your understanding but just for the record the number of deaths to the end of April was:

2020 - 1036723, predicted 1028953
2019 - 975537, predicted 1037458
2018 - 1002269, predicted 1024196
2017 - 976086, predicted 1002452

When you adjust for population changes these figures become remarkably similar.

So as someone brilliantly opined two months ago, basically a normal flu season.

LM,

Perhaps this will help you to understand why your post "So 80,000 Americans haven't died from this virus ?" is utter bunkum.

___________________________________________________________

I saw a post from a statistician yesterday that said that the population adjusted US deaths from the Hong Kong Flu was 160000. But no one talked about closing the entire economy.

Dear mhaze,

Well that gave me a very hearty chuckle so thank you for being such a goose.

The "Threshold" figure is set at the 95% Confidence Interval for crying out loud!!

This is not the average figure at all mate. It is the figure which will be exceeded only 5% of the time. It is set purposefully high so if an observed figure exceeds it it will be a red flag.

What you have done is taken the actual figures and subtracted them from this purposefully high figure CI figures and un-bloody-surprisingly came up with far a lesser figure of 7770. Right up until the middle of March you kept totaling illusory negative figures didn't you.

You have even included the week-ending the 25/4/2020 which had not been fully updated so it took another 15,259 off the total.

Mate, give it up. That is why graphical representations are there, for people like you to check your assumptions. The fact that you were so dismissive of them now means you are in the dog house and looking like an idiot, especially after you had been so cockahoop. I knew as soon as you posted that you had to be talking out your backside.

COVID-19 is becoming an excuse !

SR,

Oh dear..." It is the figure which will be exceeded only 5% of the time."

That's not it at all. Struth, after all your woes around confidence intervals in regards to AGW data, I'd have thought you got this by now.

The number is a prediction based on previous years adjusted for increased population and changing demographics. The answer is therefore a range. This number is the number where they can be 95% sure its accurate within that range.

If it was the number where it was "exceeded only 5% of the time" then it would be exceeded 5% of the time. And its not.QED.

You originally wanted to use this data but clearly you have no understanding of what it means. The pictures just seemed to show what you wanted to believe and it started and ended there.

You make these claims like the prediction not being being based on previous years and then when I show that it is, you just move onto other baseless assertions without ever acknowledging the earlier error.

Out of the blue, you suddenly want to talk about NYC, and then when I point out the ramifications of the NYC data, you just as swiftly go back to ignoring NY all over again.

Its like trying to hold custard. It can't be done because it doesn't have any substance.

I can't help but notice that you are now totally ignoring the fact that the adjusted deaths for 2018 look very like the deaths for 2020 ie its just another flu season as someone brilliantly opined way back when.

Its clear we are now in the SR water-muddying phase. Last time that happened I just dropped out of the thread which you took as a retreat. You'll probably puff up your self-esteem again on the same basis. But really I'm not interested in chasing you down these various rabbit holes again.

Dear mhaze,

You flail away;

“The number is a prediction based on previous years adjusted for increased population and changing demographics. The answer is therefore a range. This number is the number where they can be 95% sure its accurate within that range.”

Lol. No mate it isn't. No range was given. It was strictly a single figure threshold that they pretty well set at the standard 2 deviations above the expected number. This is basic statistics.

“From the very website itself; “The upper bound of the 95% CI more readily identifies areas experiencing statistically significantly higher than normal mortality. “

Your figure of 1028953 was the sum of the threshold figures wasn't it. It was not the average at all was it.

Come on mate, you have been caught with your pants around your ankles and you are trying to claim you are wearing skin coloured lycra.

I use to take it on face value you had at least a rudimentary handle on this stuff but perhaps not. For now I will assume you are trying to cover a stuff up and this is just an aberration. Or you could just come clean and preserve some respect on this.

Mhaze,

86,000 in a bit over a month.

3,000 were killed on 9/11. Imagine, across the 28 biggest cities in the US, a 9/11 event in every one of them.

Maybe 3,000 killed didn't worry you much back in 2001. More people die falling from Russian windows every year. More die in the US from falling trees each year. 3,000 - ptuh ! 86,000 - flea-bites !

Open up the economy NOW, quick, before the curve can come down ! Support the Curve ! Drive it up ! Let the US have the best curve in the world ! We strong ! We brave ! We can take it ! Bring it on ! We can beat it in a fair fight any time !

Where's my latest Captain Marvel comic ?

Better still, old Abbott and Costello comics.

Joe

They flashed the cash, and a couple of tinnies, and it seems Boofhead Malone from the Nullarbor Wanderers finally got the jab, despite the excruciating pain. According to Boofhead the jab was more painful than the stiff arm he received from Knockout Ned McGurk of the Rampaging Ratbags in last years grand final won be the Ratbags 67 to 66 in extra time, when "Boots" Smith of the Ratbags kicked a controversial field goal right on the siren, all while Boofhead Malone lay concussed on the side line from that stiff arm of Knockout Ned's.

Boofhead said he can't wait for the footy season to kick off again, when he can square up the account with Knockout Ned. The opener, a replay of last years grand final between the Wanderers and the Ratbags. The grudge match will be played before a capacity crowd of sheep and goats in a paddock up yonder way cause they can't use the bloody regular patch, cause of the bloody virus.