Midst the spill the senate became subject of conversation on a live broadcast from parliament house, Anthony Green highlighted all the crossbenchers will need to be reelected in this next election, and that new laws will not see that take place, 6 greens face re election too any one know just who will be standing? from what party, thinking of current senators seeking re election, how will it change the chook pen?

We need a Chook raffle to sort the whole ones from the pieces !

Dear Belly,

You've got to watch "Four Corners" tonight. It's
going to be on what happened during the past week.
Should be interesting.

Also, watch "Q and A" - Pauline Hanson and Bob Katter are
going to be on the panel. We'll hear more about the
Senate then. As well as their interpretations of the
past week.

Interesting times ahead - that's for sure.
Who will remain after the next election? I guess we'll
have to wait and see.

Foxy will watch both nearly always do, not well at present and while interested in just who has to stand for re election in the chook pen, not sure how to find out, someone know? Anthony Green forecast an easier senate to get along with but how easy? my view we need to tighten it up, if I can not get my wish, abolish it, stands look forward to opinions maybe even a list?

Hi Belly,

The only senate seats that are contentious are located in the States, the 2 each from the ACT and NT are safe for the ALP/LNP. Of the 36 state seats up for grabs, 18 are vulnerable. 4 each for ALP, LNP, Greens and 4 Independents plus one each for Katter Qld and Hanson WA. Its unlikely either major party will control the Senate. The ALP has to hold their 13 and win an extra 13, the LNP hold 14 and win an extra 9. That's impossible, from a possible 40 seats.

Given that the Coalition is now just as dysfunctional as the Labor party, more conservatives, whether AC or independents, need to voted into the senate.

Paul1405,
Why would the ALP need 26 seats but the LNP only 21?

____________________________________________________________________________________

ttbn,
Now the fight against gay marriage is lost, what good would more conservatives do?

More conservatives will stop immigration. They believe in keeping things the same or to move back to a time where things were more stable. Hopefully they don't believe in the myth of unlimited growth.

The way the regressives spewed hatred and misrepresented Bob Katters mate shows he must have a lot going for him.

It was Bob Katter's mate who spewed the hatred.
Most people saw through it including Pauline
Hanson. Which beggars the question - why didn't
you - the self-proclaimed Christian that you
claim to be?

Paul thanks, seem you are well informed but do you agree the crossbenchers/refugees from one nation and other small parties are in deep trouble? confess not well informed on that, still we both know very many do not vote the same in both houses and not thinking any chance exists one of the two can ever again control the chook pen in its current form but, think one notion may, in time, become a one seat party

Hi ttbn,

The magic number to win absolute control of the Senate is 39 out of 76. The LNP hold 30 risking 14 leaving them with 16. 16+14+9=39. The LNP need to win 23 of 40 to win control. ALP hold 26 risking 13 leaving them with 13. 13+13+13=39. The ALP need to win 26 of the 40 to win control.

Last time around the LNP scored 35% and the ALP 30% in the Senate. A quota this time will be 14.3%. Even if the ALP picked yo say 5% from the LNP, giving them 35% and the LNP 30%. That gives ALP 2.4 quotes LNP 2.1 The Greens 9% gives them 0.6 of a quota Hanson 4.3% which equals 0.3 of a quota.
The most likely event is the independents loose out, the LNP loose some, Greens loose 1 or 2, Hanson people hold on, ALP pick up a few without coming anywhere near the magic 39. With such a realignment and the ALP winning government they most likely will need Green support in the Senate as a minimum to pass legislation. and possibly a couple more votes as well from the likes of Nick X.

Foxy last night on the ABC we saw a fact I have been denying, runner and such as he, are part of the LNP, we saw others like him expressing views voters just do hold, and requesting a push to an extreme right, middle Australia rejected, try has hard as you like outside QLD to find support for Anning, but you will find only contempt,the chook pen election by removing so many crossbenchers will re-enforce my statement, the far right will in time, waste away, until it does it inflicts great harm on the true Liberal party

Dear Belly,

«Anthony Green highlighted all the crossbenchers will need to be reelected in this next election, and that new laws will not see that take place»

No, there is nothing in the law against electing small parties: not only is this completely legal, but even made easier as I will rank all small parties first, above the line - and will advise my friends to do the same.

Anything to disrupt the one big ruling party that masquerades as two, is a good thing.

---

Dear Aidan,

«Now the fight against gay marriage is lost, what good would more conservatives do?»

Protect religious freedoms.

(though I doubt they really care about religion, they only care about their own, established, Christian churches)

Dear Belly,

Bob Katter put in a poor showing last night. He came
across as a man not to be taken seriously. From what
I could see the politicians just don't seem to be
listening to the concerns of the people. This will
not stand them in good stead at the next election.

Hi Foxy and Belly,

I watched Q&A last night. Firstly I most strongly object to the biased right wing ABC, they had three from the Nazi's Bob Katter, Pauline Hanson and George Christensen, but only two Communists Cathy O’Toole and Larissa Waters, on the panel, shameful bias on their part. I almost had to turn over to 'Sky Channel' to get some decent unbiased comment from Paul Murray, Peta Credlin and Andrew Bolt. They don't pander to the rabid right, they are the radid right! It was obvious to me that the two Commo's have a secret agenda to make North Queensland into a Provence of Communist China. They did not actually say that, but us of the rabid right can read between the lines on these things, and we know. I know some from the Nazi's would like to see North Queensland a separate state, but it would only be for us god fearing good christian white folk, no riffraff allowed!

I partially like the way the Mad Katter spoke, he was so calm and reasoned in his answers! However Bob did get one thing wrong, he said the were 840,000 undesirables entering the country last years. That's wrong Bob, by my personal calculation the actual number was 78,983,627 give or take one or two, and they were all Muslim illegals! Turnbull has been hiding them all in his mansion at Point Piper, its big enough. Don't worry Prime Minister Dutton will flush them out.

yuyutsu you manage to confuse me and sometimes yourself, my question was based on Anthony's statement that new electoral laws [it was easier to win a senate seat in the DD election] would see crossbenchers fail this time. Paul 1405 Foxy, yes hard as it is to except the very right best serve the ALP and other not so lost parties by constantly reminding us they are forever a minority

Interestingly, whenever I hear the name 'Greens' it reminds me of a group of social misfits filled with a toxic regard to anything that might improve Australia or Australian's. I can understand some components of Labour ideology and some of their policies. But the Greens should be renamed the Detritus Party; their policies are rubbish; their ideology are composed of ordure; and their political aspirations are essentially in the commode.

And I can only hope, the bruised & battered Conservatives, will closely adhere to their closed border protection strategies, initiated firstly by Scott MORRISON and later, ably supported by Peter DUTTON. That is, if there're any true conservatives left within the LNP. As far as the PM Scott MORRISON is concerned? I guess it's a case of wait and see? Though he's shown more than a glimmer of true conservatism, with his approach to Border Protection by being the first at 'stopping the boats'.

Politically I believe the greatest threat to a stable Australia, can be found in the Greens. With their intent to vandalise sound policies, when presented in the Senate. The Green's only wish is to 'wreck' good policies emanating from the LNP and to a far lessor extent, the Labour Party. Irrespective of the merit or otherwise, contained in those policies

Remarkably when they were first formed, I would've given them my vote; had their beliefs, ethics & tenets remained firmly entrenched in the protection of our Flora & Fauna. Instead, they decided to interfere or arbitrarily block major policies of the two larger Parties, without the foggiest idea of why? Imagine if you will, installing Ms Sarah HANSON-YOUNG, as the Minister for Defence? She'd have the good folks of the TV Series, 'Sea Patrol' protecting our immense borders. Still her heart's in the right place I guess?

Dear Belly,

Previously in senate elections, parties were able to elect default preferences in case people voted for them by only placing a [1] above the line under their name. The recent changes mean that those who vote above the line, rather than their most preferred party, must number their preferences in at least 6 boxes.

So previously, those who wanted to vote for (and only for) small parties, had to either accept the preference-list of their first party (which they might not like), or vote under the line (which is tiresome and easily prone to errors). Now they can number all (or most of) the small parties above the line, which is much easier.

Yes Foxy but too the preference swaps will not longer see the one issue partys get seats, o sung wo, unfortunately for you voters not some phantom, them,, put greens in the senate, my wish to remove that house or reform it remains, as does my one vote one value wish

Dear Belly,

Preference swaps will continue, the only difference is that they will now be made by the people rather than by parties. It's a case of "If I don't make it, then let one of my friends make it, rather than have it fall to the monsters".

Now you want "one vote one value"? Then how palatable for you is the fact that currently one voter has practically no vote at all because they happen to live on one side of a street that happens to fall in "stable" electorate A, while their neighbour across the street has more than one vote because they happen to live in "marginal" electorate B?

Hi BELLY...

I couldn't agree with you more. Instead of being a genuine 'House of Review' it's devolved into an almost seperate law making facility. I agree, lets get rid of it, their behaviour lately has been very much obstructive in the extreme.

To O Sung Wu- With respect I like the Senate. And they are the only ones to stop the crazy policies coming out of the two major parties- if some sane Senators get elected.

Thank you CANEM MALUM for your opinion, I guess you're right, we do need to keep our politicians, especially those with unfettered powers, in some sort of check, otherwise we might have anarchy? More than what we already have, do you think? Thank you my friend, as always the voice of reason.

CM/o sung wo, first we should agree no one side can ever deliver perfection,the best, in my opinion, we can get is the better of two, well not evils but selections, if it is the intention of well over 80 percent of voters that one of those two govern why let some, who in fact in one case got 19 votes for themselves but rode in on the back of a party he *then betrayed* blackmail the elected government? the next senate will be better than this, but neither side can hope to control it, if Democracy is about the wishes of the majority, and surely it is? then how can the chook pen claim to serve it? halve the number of senators, make it three year terms, in lock step with lower house elections. at least,, if we can not remove it

Hi Belly, who is the majority in the Senate, the LNP with 35% of the vote, or Labor with 30%. From the days of Gough the Senate has been a pet hate of the Labor Party, I to in my Labor days was anti Senate, on reflection I was wrong. The Senate does serve a useful purpose, that as a truer representation of the Australian (voting) population, and the Senate Committee system does very much hold the government of the day to account. Without the Senate such things as the Banking RC would not take place. The Senate also provides some very capable politicians, from your side Penny Wong for one, and the Liberals Mathias Cormann has been more than useful. Richard Di Natale for the Greens is very capable, and Derryn Hinch as an independent has been a surprise to many. Don't forget screwballs can also get elected to the lower house, The Mad Katter resides there, and not in the Senate.

Paul 1405 let us be honest yes the greens are,, if any exist, the current third force in our country, others have made a play DLP Democrates, PUP Xenophon and failed, too I SHARE THE VIEW ONLY IN THE SENATE CAN YOUR PARTY THRIVE, FORGET MY VIEWS, UNDERSTAND A MAJORITY OF VOTERS WILL never vote green, to win government Labor DID invade Liberal territory, after they left it,,not betrayal following the voters, you must be middle of the road to govern, IF my wish, reform was granted, we have to know your party would in all probability still hold the balance of power

Hi Belly,

In the early days of Australia's federation, the Labor Party was the third party, behind the "Big Two", the Protectionist and Free Trade parties. We have had literally hundreds of political parties and groups come and go in Australian politics. Why is that, because they failed to broaden their base among the voting population. The early "Big Two" were guilty of that and they disappeared. The Labor Party, formed as a "workers rights" party was able to broaden its base by developing policies in such areas as education, health, social welfare, trade, defence etc etc. If Labor had stuck to narrow defined workers rights only policy they to would have been consigned to the political dust bin.
The Greens, and I do not say this with bias, go out of their way to develop policy in all areas, that is the key to not only survival, but future growth.

BTW if either of the "Big Two" had won 50% of the Senate vote last election they would now be holding between 38 and 46 of the 76 Senate seats, a preference quirk could have given the one with 50% of the vote all 76 seats. They would have absolute control.

Paul as you know Howard held the majority for a while, allowing him to launch his anti workers work choices thing that cost him his seat,I can find no reason to claim the chook pen serves majority voters right now, its long lost reason for existing, states house, or even house of review, no longer seem to exist,reform, true real reform that leads to an end to blackmailing the majority surely serves democracy not confronts it

G'day there BELLY...

As usual your political wisdom is apparent - you're right of course, no Political Party can ever deliver perfection in their administration. BELLY you're far shrewder on the make-up of the political landscape than most. But as we've discussed in the past, we both 'seem' to agree, the greatest obstacle and impediment to good governance; is the Senate. You're right again when you aver, an individual with just 19 votes, can and does enter the Federal Senate, after which he's in a position to make vital decisions that can have significant consequences on the entire population.

My view of the essential functions of the Senate, is a House of Review. Not as Legislator's. That's squarely within the purview of the The House of Representatives. A case in point, New Zealand had shed itself of their upper House, and as a consequence has managed to introduce significant, 'positive' legislation, much to the amelioration of the entire country. I believe we have much to learn (politically) from our good friends across the ditch.

I've just heard, apparently last night on ABC TV, they'd done a parody or mockery concerning Scott MORRISON'S devout Christian proclivities. Do you believe (i) That's a good way to spend taxpayers money (ii) and isn't the PM'S religious convictions, his own personal business? Speaking of 'draining' the swamp - they should put a stiff broom through their administrators in the ABC? Do you have a view on this BELLY? Thanks mate.

A truth can not be ignored voters did not want ultra conservatives in numbers big enough to control the senate doubt that? explain why Hanson has so few

Hi BELLY...

You really didn't address my question? What truth? Too many conservatives? What about too many Labour? Explains why Hanson has so few, does it?

I like you bloke, no honestly I do, but old mate I wonder if a younger you would clutch so tightly to your current views? see you and I play only a minor role in elections, our opinions truly do not matter,well we can,, if we let ourselves,,try to see what voters want and think, question, is there a better way to say what THEY want than in the polling booths? do we have the right to question that? break it down to its true meaning you asked me to explain why in your view,, too many Labor members sit in the senate, AND to find reason so few ultra conservatives do, is that not true? the answer is and always will be in a democratic country voters no one else decide for us who will govern and who will be in opposition I stand by my view one nation proves voters do not in numbers big enough want ultra conservative3s

Hi there BELLY...

I agree with you, there's no place in an egalitarian society like Australia for ultra-conservatives, of which I'm one. Today's voters are more inclined to lean towards the moderates, even the 'Left' to a certain extent, in order they are protected from the tough economic times that are about to confront us all. One thing I'm prepared to predict, when Labour get in next year, they're more then likely to serve out two terms, rather than just the one. By that time BELLY we'll owe, almost a trillion dollars to our creditors?

Sadly through the fault of two dysfunctional governments, the Labour and the Coalition, we'll have amassed so much debt we'll not ever be able to retire it, within the next 20-25 years. From a creditor nation, we'll become a debtor nation and that's the sad legacy we've left for our children. We should be utterly ashamed of ourselves.

Ultra-conservatives (or Conservatives against immigration)- it sounds like an extreme position but "they are the ones that want to keep things the same" or to wind back the clock to when the majors didn't both support immigration policy.

"Conservatives against immigration" are moderates not extremists (their policy is to minimize change to Australian culture).

"Those that want to change Australian society in an extreme way are the extremists." (ie the socialists)

This shifting of the goal posts (of extreme and moderate) is an interesting exercise in deception of the Australian electorate.

To O Sung Wu- I hope you have been well over the last week. I always look forward to your comments.

CM O SUNG WO, well no doubt exists I am from Labor side,even I however am not able to claim all of my party supports my view, a longlife see,s us all change and learn, my life started on the very lost [just as lost as the far right] left,I now firmly fit in to the right of my party, that in my view, places me in the center of politics,my aversion to the extremes on both sides is not going to change, and my understanding from time to time we need from both sides, reforms the senate in my view, like everything involving politics, must be reformed much more than it recently was,while ever smartys can swap preferences from micro parties that install another headless chook in the chook pen we are made fools of

Hi there CANEM MALUM...

I'm pretty good, thank you for asking. You say you look forward to reading my contributions? Well if I was as gifted as you are, with your insight and interpretation of local and world affairs; I'd consider myself very privileged indeed.

Your take on the way the political landscape keeps shifting, much to the annoyance of the electorate, is so accurate. Traditional conservative values hitherto held by the LNP, have mysteriously slipped further to the Left. And Labour, the party dedicated too those of the Left, well I really don't know what's going on there? Thanks my friend.

We each see things differently from each other, it is my view Labor now lives on the land the Liberal once owned,that the greens came about because even now, some Labor supporters did not agree with the party travelling to the right, conservatives, as seen in some cases by refugees from the Liberals, and one nation, in this country at least can not claim control of Liberalism,our senate houses minorities those minorities can only do deals/blackmail majority's, the chook pen has a lot to answer for

Hi Belly, what makes you think parties that score 30% or 35% of the vote are entitled to majority control of the Senate. All they have to do is convince 50% of the electorate to vote for them, is that to difficult?
Why aren't 50% voting Labor? There must be a reason.

Dear Paul,

Some people don't like Bill Shorten.

The man's still got to prove himself in the minds of
some voters. But then so does Scott Morrison.
It should be an interesting battle.

Hi Foxy and Belly,

If Belly's recollection is still with him, he will recall I was not a big fan of Bill Shorten when he took over the leadership of Labor way back in 2013, we clashed on that issue several times. I though Shorten was rather shallow and indecisive, and didn't think he would last, and certainly didn't think he would make a good Prime Minister. I was wrong, in five years Shorten has played no small part in unifying the Labor Party in opposition, preparing them for government. The man has done a lot of hard work since becoming leader.
Comparing the Coalition and Labor, its chalk and cheese. a united party on one side in Labor, and a warring rabble in the form of the Coalition. Change cannot come quick enough.

Foxy/Paul my earlier total support for Bill has been shave a bit from those days, his knifing of Rudd,and his seeming loss of the sheer brilliance he once had concerns me, however no other choice exists, Paul your question, both parties are the reason voters do not give them majority in the chook pen, however if one nation, not the greens held the balance of power Paul would see my point of view better that now

Dear Belly/Paul,

We'll see what policies are offered prior to the election.
The Coalition's image has been tattered quite a lot, especially
over the past weeks. The next months should give us some
indication of where the country's heading.

Foxy Labor will win, but not before the biggest outbreak of false news fear and loathing yet seen in this country, and we have seen tidal waves of it before, that too is on the cards for the American midterms and next Presidential election, a return to the center is on, that by its very nature will bring about reforms on the right, as they confront the truth, voters in numbers large enough are not following them.

Hi Foxy and Belly,

I'm not for the grab bag of vote buying, and pork barrelling promises, or the three word slogans, nor am I into leader personality, these things, politicians engage in at election time, that's the "junk" of politics. I want here and now to be able to discern policy and direction they intend to inflict on Australia. I know most voters are apathetic when it comes to policy and direction, and they rely on the "junk" politics, that's the reality.

The kind of thing that gets up my nose is after five years of being in government the Coalition does not have a concrete energy policy, health policy, education policy, tax policy etc. Its all been a vacillation between competing interests of the hard right and soft left of the Liberal Party. It cannot continue, can Morrison stop it, I do not believe so. The change of leadership in no way has stifled the minority Hard Right faction, they all voted for Dutton, and are still very much active in their desire to pull the government in their direction. Tony Abbott and his group have no intention of compromising. The only saving grace I can see is the Hard Right don't hate Morrison with the same passion they did Turnbull. For Abbott it was personal with Turnbull as well as philosophical. I think Morrison is like Jim Hacker the compromise candidate for PM, and what a disaster was poor Jim.

light entertainment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGscoaUWW2M

Paul you and I will not get much support for our views here, but policy not party is everything,and right now Liberalism on its trip further right, has some policy that should be toxic,in truth our two parties do too, yours has that NSW Communist hiding in your party, vote killing, mine dare not separate itself from the government on refugees/migration,the surge to the right will, after some time be reversed, not yet but post Trump it will be seen as just as toxic as the above.
Liberalism, with a Prime Minister who once said future generations can no longer rely on pensions, must return to its foundation type policies