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The Forum > General Discussion > The Senate after the next election

The Senate after the next election

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Paul1405,
Why would the ALP need 26 seats but the LNP only 21?

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ttbn,
Now the fight against gay marriage is lost, what good would more conservatives do?
Posted by Aidan, Monday, 27 August 2018 2:24:01 PM
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More conservatives will stop immigration. They believe in keeping things the same or to move back to a time where things were more stable. Hopefully they don't believe in the myth of unlimited growth.
Posted by Canem Malum, Monday, 27 August 2018 3:34:52 PM
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The way the regressives spewed hatred and misrepresented Bob Katters mate shows he must have a lot going for him.
Posted by runner, Monday, 27 August 2018 3:55:14 PM
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It was Bob Katter's mate who spewed the hatred.
Most people saw through it including Pauline
Hanson. Which beggars the question - why didn't
you - the self-proclaimed Christian that you
claim to be?
Posted by Foxy, Monday, 27 August 2018 4:36:57 PM
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Paul thanks, seem you are well informed but do you agree the crossbenchers/refugees from one nation and other small parties are in deep trouble? confess not well informed on that, still we both know very many do not vote the same in both houses and not thinking any chance exists one of the two can ever again control the chook pen in its current form but, think one notion may, in time, become a one seat party
Posted by Belly, Monday, 27 August 2018 5:36:52 PM
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Hi ttbn,

The magic number to win absolute control of the Senate is 39 out of 76. The LNP hold 30 risking 14 leaving them with 16. 16+14+9=39. The LNP need to win 23 of 40 to win control. ALP hold 26 risking 13 leaving them with 13. 13+13+13=39. The ALP need to win 26 of the 40 to win control.

Last time around the LNP scored 35% and the ALP 30% in the Senate. A quota this time will be 14.3%. Even if the ALP picked yo say 5% from the LNP, giving them 35% and the LNP 30%. That gives ALP 2.4 quotes LNP 2.1 The Greens 9% gives them 0.6 of a quota Hanson 4.3% which equals 0.3 of a quota.
The most likely event is the independents loose out, the LNP loose some, Greens loose 1 or 2, Hanson people hold on, ALP pick up a few without coming anywhere near the magic 39. With such a realignment and the ALP winning government they most likely will need Green support in the Senate as a minimum to pass legislation. and possibly a couple more votes as well from the likes of Nick X.
Posted by Paul1405, Monday, 27 August 2018 5:40:10 PM
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