Dear Loudmouth,

You wrote;

“I usually enjoy your posts, you toss them off so easily, with so little thought behind them; it's so much fun to find the holes in them.”

Lol. This coming from the 'Rabbit Proof Fence' man.

Clear writing may well have its difficulties but never as much as basic comprehension. Perhaps reading both posts again might help. Let me know if you require further assistance.

Kind regards.

Hi Steele,

Try reading it again.

What does Quote [A] suggest ? That it would be courageous to claim that polling will improve after Corbyn's manifesto.

Quote [B] suggests that polling will get worse after Corbyn's manifesto.

It depends which poll you count - opinion polls or the actual election polls.

Wait and see.

Joe

Dear Loudmouth,

Sigh.

Please replace your “will improve” in 'A' with “has improved” as in the original.

So did the polls improve after the release of the manifesto? Yes, quite notably. This is a statement of fact. One which according to SM I could only 'claim' with much 'courage' which is nonsensical. What he was of course attempting to do was dispute a possible correlation which was his opinion.

Does that help?

Hi Steele,

You mean the election poll, or the opinion polls ? Given the British first-past-the-post system, opinion polls this far out from the election and showing such a gap, must worry Labour, but it will be the election poll that counts. A lead in the opinion polls, if that is what you are talking about, of 15.7 %, is massive in such a system.

If I was Corbyn, or someone with a bit more sense, I would be horrified at that gap, manifesto or not. At the last election, the gap was barely 5 %, and Cameron won a majority easily.

Much more so that here, in Britain, the first-past-the-post system means that the election poll is the one that really counts. I'm still suggesting a loss from Labour of around thirty seats, perhaps fifty. We'll see, won't we ?

Joe

SR,

I'll use small words this time.

As I said previously, given that polls almost always get tighter closer to the election, there was no doubt that the vast Tory lead was going to decrease. The question is whether the manifesto gives labour a net boost or a drag.

Notably, before the election was announced, the labour, cons gap was consistently closer to 13%. Looking at the last week, and the average of polls, the gap between labour and the conservatives has changed by about 2% with the gap still being roughly 15%, and all Labour's new votes coming from the collapse of UKIP, the greens and the lib dems. The manifesto has hardly moved the needle, and with 15 days before the election, with all the smaller parties being wiped out, the situation is looking grim for labor.

"This poll continued a new trend of Labour closing the gap. The Tories were still 14 points ahead, but this was down from 20 points the week before. And the 33% Jeremy Corbyn's party had was the highest vote share since June 2016. However, it wasn't by any means good news. ICM predicted this would still allow the Tories to win nearly 400 seats."

Dear Loudmouth,

Being deliberately obtuse is funny for about 1 second. By the way the gap in the 'percentage of the popular' at the last election was 6.5% not 5%. I think Corbyn will better that notwithstanding the tragedy in Manchester.

Dear Shadow minister,

The small words are for your own benefit mate. Here is an opinion/prediction for you, Corbyn has an excellent chance of doing a Trump taking this thing out. The harder the media and the establishment go after him the more support he seems to be getting. He is talking about radical change just like Trump did. If you think the Brexit crowd have any kind of allegiance to the Tories then you are just plain stupid.