Hi Steele,

What I respect, and sometimes love, about reality is that it comes about, no matter what we may wish for.

My prediction is that Labour will lose between thirty and fifty seats. What's yours, that Labour will win by ten seats?

We'll see in a few weeks, won't we :)

Joe

Dear Loudmouth,

You wrote;

“What I respect, and sometimes love, about reality is that it comes about, no matter what we may wish for.”

Indeed.

Labour has 229 seats. You claim they will lose between “thirty and fifty seats” which would leave them between 179 and 199 seats giving them the lowest number since the war.

So why do you wish that for the UK Labour Party?

My prediction is that they will probably gains some seats, certainly not enough to win but I think it unlikely they will go backwards. Still a way to go though.

Hi Steele,

Dear oh dear. I'll repeat: "What I respect, and sometimes love, about reality is that it comes about, no matter what we may wish for.”

I'm not saying that I wish for a devastating Labour loss: I hope, probably vainly, that they come close enough to the Tories to give them a scare. But I don't think that reality will bear my hope out.

Reality is king, wishes are beggars.

Hey, I might patent that.

Joe

SR,

If you read the link I provided, it is clear that support for all the minor parties has collapsed. While labour has benefitted from this by about 4% the conservatives have done more so by about 12%.

While I expect the gap to tighten closer to the polls, the UK election is still first past the post, and with the conservative lead now far greater than the 6.5% lead in 2015, the chances of labour gaining seats is slim.

My best guesstimate (with a fat margin of error) would be for the lead at the election being in the region of 10% and labour losing about 20 seats.

Hi Steele,

You wrote yesterday (at 3.47 pm) that "The Tory's are of course reaping the benefit from the collapse of UKIP's vote .... "

I'm not so sure: much of the UKIP vote might slide over to Corbyn. After all, historically, it's been common for sections of the working-class and more marginalised populations, to devoutly follow one extreme, only to flip over to the other extreme, when their God fails.

Witness Trump's capture of the job-threatened working-class vote, formerly Democrat voters; the support from formerly communist voters in French mining areas to vote for Le Pen; and of course, the support from voters in Germany who went for the Communists in the 1920s, only to vote for the Nazis in the 1930s. And let's not talk about who backs One Nation here.

Those classes are usually pretty desperate, almost praying for a saviour to get them out of economic depression - and if one fails, they switch very quickly to another one. UKIP has effectively gone, so what next ? Who's going to save the put-upon and economically marginalised ? 'Right' or 'left' may no matter much to somebody whose job either has gone or is about to go - as long as somebody can promise them some basic security, salvation from the abyss of unemployment.

In the US, if it becomes clear that Trump will never bring back jobs as they used to be, build a wall, keep out job-competitors, etc., watch for the rapid flip-over of his followers - at some point, they'll be ripping down the White House fences, wanting to rip his head off. The devout and the desperate can be quite volatile.

We'll see :) Wouldn't be dead for quids.

Joe

Dear Shadow Minister,

A little over a week ago you were saying this;

“Before this suicide note, labour was tipped to lose 50 seats leaving it with about 27% of the seats and the manifesto is just going to make it worse.”

Now this is your message;

“My best guesstimate (with a fat margin of error) would be for the lead at the election being in the region of 10% and labour losing about 20 seats.”

Today there was this;

“Labour have continued to cut the Tories’ lead in the polls after the publication of the party manifestos, as party leader Jeremy Corbyn claimed his message was “getting through” to voters. Survation research gave Theresa May's party a lead of nine percentage points with the Conservatives dropping 5 per cent to 43 per cent in a week while Labour enjoyed a 5 per cent boost to 34 per cent.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-closes-gap-on-tory-lead-with-best-polls-showing-so-far-a7747111.html

Would you now agree that the Corbyn's manifesto has probably been a positive rather than the 'suicide note' you had originally labeled it?

If so why do you think that is?