Steele,

Oy. Most of the rest of us are aware that in the UK, elections are different from here: whoever gets the most votes, first up, no preference system, wins the seat.

So hypothetically, if the Tories won 49 % of the vote in every electorate, they would win every electorate. So first and second preference rubbish. Every seat. Of course that won't happen. I'd better repeat that, since you will throw it back at me, again and again: Of course that won't happen. Of course that won't happen. Of course that won't happen.

So there is no necessary correlation between a 54: 46 preference split between the Tories and Labour, and Labour getting 46 % of all seats. if that distribution was repeated across the country in every electorate,.... well, you now what would happen. In such a system as Britain's, a 54 % lead means much more than getting just 54 % of the seat, it can conceivably mean a complete wipe-out for the minor party. Of course that won't happen. Of course that won't happen. Of course that won't happen.

Different folks, different strokes, as someone remarked recently.

Joe

SR,

Given that the trend worldwide is for polls to narrow as the election approaches, and given that there were other polls subsequent to the one you refer to that show a wider margin, it would be courageous call to claim that the labour polling improved after the release of the manifesto. So no I don't agree with you.

Secondly, with respect to my prediction (which I acknowledged as a guesstimate), was based on the quote I posted a week previously (not my prediction), and the trend (mentioned above) for polls to narrow.

The following link may be of interest:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/who-will-win-general-election-2017-latest-polls-odds-tracker/

Foxy,

Again I direct you to:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/2017-general-election-poll-tracker-10266121

Here their average of all polls on the 20/5/2017 shows 47.1 to 31.4 or a lead of 15.7

It is probably somewhere in between.

Dear Shadow Minister,

You wrote;

“it would be courageous call to claim that the labour polling improved after the release of the manifesto”

Yet you thought nothing of stridently claiming the polling would get worse because of it.

Hi Steele,

I usually enjoy your posts, you toss them off so easily, with so little thought behind them; it's so much fun to find the holes in them.

Your last: [A] " ..... it would be [a] courageous call to claim that the labour polling improved after the release of the manifesto. ”

and

[B] " ..... yet you thought nothing of stridently claiming the polling would get worse because of it."

[A] suggests that SM believes that polling for Labour would get worse after Corbyn's manifesto.

{B} suggests that SM believes that polling for labour would get worse after Corbyn's manifesto.

Take your time, read passages a few times. Certainly read over before post9ng. Clear language can be such a pain sometimes.

Joe