Dear Shadow Minister,

Predicting the future in politics is a risky
business at the best of times.

As for what you find hard to believe?

That is something that I have no control over.

There's a great deal that most of us may find
hard to believe so you're not alone in that.

Hi SM,

Yes, I think the British Labour Party will be decimated. Unless the 'moderates' can somehow detach themselves from Corbyn in the run-up to the elections, they will probably be hit even worse.

I suppose there are still some Marxists who - in treating Marxism as a religion in the same way that some Muslims (I hope not too many) consider the Koran as an unchangeable, uncontradictable, document - would assert that every single notion of Marx's is still as relevant today as it was in 1847.

But even Marx and Engels conceded change: I forget which but one wrote to the other in the early 1880s, that not only did England have a bourgeois bourgeoisie and a bourgeois aristocracy, but it was well on the way to creating a bourgeois proletariat. That was barely thirty years after the Communist Manifesto - and a hundred and thirty years ago. Yes, the only certainty is change.

Next year in May will be Marx's bi-centenary. If he were to rise from Highgate and observe the state of left-wing politics in Britain, and its degeneration (in Corbyn's case) into a anachronistic religion, he would flee back to the comfort of his grave and continue arguing with the skeleton of Herbert Spencer across the way. And he may be inclined to take modern socialism' with him.

Cheers,

Joe

Foxy,

It is for that particular reason that I generally refrain from making predictions. However, with FPTP elections Labour is so far behind in the polls, and has been losing by elections in strong labour seats, so I feel safe in making a prediction.

What I find hard to believe is that someone supposedly so well read and politically informed is not aware of the bleeding obvious.

Polls in the UK.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/2017-general-election-poll-tracker-10266121

SUMMARY: Con 49%, Lab 34%, Lib 7%, Greens 3%, UKIP 2%

The question is what happens after June the 8th? Corbyn looks like he wants to hang onto power, and it looks increasingly likely that the labour party might split.

Dear Shadow Minister,

You do realise that Corbyn is already well ahead of Miliband's 30.4% result from the last election? The Tory's are of course reaping the benefit from the collapse of UKP's vote but I get the sense that the final result for the two majors will be under double figures.

In a way Corbyn is speaking to a similar demographic as Trump.

Interesting times.

Dear Shadow Minister,

You're not aware of the "bleeding obvious," because
you have a closed mind. (A closed book is just a piece
of wood after all).