You are all wrong !
There will not be a boom in business, and it will not be a disaster.
We will continue as we are with no slack in the system at all and
it will continue like this for the next three to five years.
If interest rates rise it will be more like two to four years.

Then from that point you can expect almost anything to happen in the
financial field, almost certainly a bigger and better GFC.
Of course something like last time might just save us, but that last
time was to make the source rocks available. Once they cannot keep up
or the interest rates rise, then it is all over.
There is nothing else except the long slope down.

Start digging up your backyard.

Warmair, you have to explain why the Ocean has suddenly, 17 years ago,
started diverting the heat to itself ?

Bazz to Warmair,

"you have to explain why the Ocean has suddenly, 17 years ago,
started diverting the heat to itself?"

Bazz, I don't think Warmair fully understands 'ocean-atmosphere coupling'.

Neither do you understand the laws of thermodynamics.

DavidK
Bazz, I don't think Warmair fully understands 'ocean-atmosphere coupling'.

I doubt if there are many people who can claim they do, at best it would only be those who are fully qualified climate scientists.
Nevertheless I can’t see anything fundamentally wrong with my dumbed down version of what is going on.

Bazz
Quote
“Warmair, you have to explain why the Ocean has suddenly, 17 years ago,
started diverting the heat to itself ?”

The ocean is not at a nice even temperature everywhere in fact quite the opposite vertically it can go from over 30 Deg C to around 3 Deg C at great depth. The average temperature of the ocean is in fact 3.9 Deg C but the last average global sea surface temperature I can find quoted is 16.4 Deg C. The climate systems while constrained inside certain limits is chaotic so there is no need to assume that the extra heat absorbed by the planet is all going to remain obediently at the surface. Most of the ocean mixing occurs in the top 700 meters but there is evidence to suggest that some of it is getting down as far as 3000 meters.

The problem is that the extra heat will almost certainly reappear at the surface at some time in the future and anyway the system is still accumulating heat. The confirmation is the oceans continue to rise

Warmair, isn't the pause in warming blamed on the ocean taking the heat ?
I might have that wrong, but I thought people were putting that forward
to explain the pause in temperature.
If that is so, my question was what caused the change in the heat flow ?

Bazz
Yes the pause in warming is usually blamed on the ocean taking the heat. There are other factors which may have contributed such as increased levels of aerosols from volcanoes and Asian pollution. It is also still debatable as to whether there is any real reduction in the rate of warming.

As to what caused the change in the heat flow ?
If I could answer that question I would be in line for a Nobel prize.
There is no simple answer to your question as far as I know, but observations clearly show long term patterns of oscillations emerging in sea surface temperatures, superimposed on a long term warming trend.
Some examples are the example Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and a number of others.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ocean_Dipole

On top of this we have a world wide system of ocean currents which may well reflect conditions decades or even centuries ago.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation