The Libs and Nats have now successfully lied their way into government.

Tony Abbott has now completed the most successful con job in political history.

The question is: How long will it last until it all starts to unravel?

The boats will keep coming, we will continue to have deficit after deficit, there will be massive public service sackings, new anti worker industrial agreements will be put into place, the GST increase *IS* on the table despite lying denials, Abbott will be an embarrassment internationally, unemployment will rise, Australia will be on the brink of recession at a time when the world is recovering from the GFC, and the religious social agenda of Abbott, Pyne and Hockey will be forced on Australia.

Australia will be taken back to the 50s.

Australia will realise this election mistake, and there will be another election within 2 years.

How long until the next election?

The really nice thing about the children on OLO is that they have nothing to offer other than an extension of the KRudd mantra that we have as a Nation, just rejected.

Since there is nothing else on offer I’ve decided to post this response against the last three threads that have emerged today. The nice thing about ideological predictability and groupthink is that the same response always applies.

They fail to recognize that the majority of Australians have just demonstrated via the ballot box, that they don’t share their adopted views. Suddenly democracy is no longer valid if it doesn’t fit.

Tough titties children, night night and sleep tight.

Give over you fool.

You have at least 9 years in the wilderness.

You'll have to wait until there are more kids & immigrants, who don't know how bad Labor is, before they will see any success, against the bloke who will be the second best PM ever, only beaten by Howard.

Tough night at the office there P Jack, well, if only your much loved Julia hadn't squirmed her way into office three odd years ago, who knows, your questions may have been answered.

You see, the post 2010 election term was always going to be the term that sealed labors fait, as they were literally given enough rope, and they used it well.

Here's my prediction for the next term.

The first order of business will the the repealing of the carbon tax.

Now had labor put up a decent show, chances are they would have defeated the motion, twice, paving the way for a DD election.

However, given labor were flogged, and the greens and useless independents achieving a dismal result, chances are this bill will pass.

So, in that case I feel TA will also move quickly to repeal the mining tax as well.

Of cause this won't go down too well with the punters as all they see is what's good for them, not what's good for those who drive our prosperity.

So in summing up, I think we will see a similar situation as was the case with Campbell Newman, and I think we will see it sooner rather than latter.

So therefore the next election will be in three years and, if TA can't turn things around, labor may regain office, however, if he can show signs of stopping the boats, stopping the waste, repaying at least some of the debt, and reinstating confidence, then may I suggest you start reading war and peace, because you will have a lot of time on your hands.

P Jack thanks for being around and my complements on your view.
See the near hate? here expressed because you said what?
Lets be honest to change the clothing on a very dirty kid, without first washing never works.
It was not our policy,s that tore our heart out.
Not on its own Murdock,s hit team.
We held the knife.
So change is coming.
And when the hatred arrives for Abbott it will be no more right than the shower you just got, we can not all be informed.
Yes a Double Dissolution looks on.
And in my view is needed.
But when? how? is it too much of a risk?
About 7% will win a senate seat in such an election.
Maybe Clive Palmer, already out polling the always shaky Nats could promise his way to quite a few.
Victoria seems to have rewarded a car drivers group! maybe in name only!
Who would make up the new senate.
Who would control it.
Can Abbott pull one of fast? yes in 3 months.
But would he risk his numbers in the lower house?
Complex nine years hasbeens hostile post may be so very wrong.
If the DD goes ahead none of us may like the result.

I do not like Rudd or Abbot but I suspect when Abbot is shunted, and he will be eventually as they all are, he will be a much despised, ridiculed and hated figure, even more so than his predessor who is just departing the Lodge.

SD

I think that the newly elected government will at
least serve its full term.

The Labor Party will appoint a leader in the interim.
In the meantime searching for a person with the right
credentials to become the next Labor Prime Minister.
For example, Bob Carr - who seemes to have performed well
as Australia's Foreign Minister and has the stature and
experience to be a PM.

Then again maybe Malcolm Turnbull will switch parties?
He'd give Mr Abbott a run for his money.

Seriously, though,

The Economist tells us that Mr Abbott's big test will be
to adapt his combative style to the serious business of
government. It's one thing to be in Opposition, quite
another to have to solve problems and rule the country.

Mr Abbott has already ditched an earlier boast that he would
return the budget to surplus in his first term. Abolishing
the carbon tax and other pledges may well face challenges in
the Senate.

Mr Abbott told the Australian Financial Review that there will
be a "qualitative difference in the way things happen in
Canberra."

What the difference is remains to be seen.

PJack,
You sad,sad sore loser or as Hasbeen so aptly stated you fool. It's no secret now that ALP & Labor supporters are now even more of a broken down lot than before but to write utter crap like you did is beyond the realm of idiocy. I'm sure most decent Labor supporters will not share such moron vies. Alp supporters perhaps but not Labor.

Who knows how long, but good riddance to Rudd. Worst PM in my lifetime.

Yes Rudd and Gillard were the two worst prime ministers Australia has ever had: conceited, incompetent, dysfunctional, smirking thugs.

The mentality of the rusted-on Labor voters is just appalling. Incapable of thinking but in mindless emotive slogans, full of blind worship of power, and hatred of people and freedom.

All this talk of Labor re-building itself. What's that supposed to mean? Without socialism, what has Labor got? And socialism doesn't work because in the final analysis, it's nothing but force-based thieving.

And how was Rudd? Fatuous, dishonest, smirking, self-centred, boring and graceless to the very end.

Fought the good fight? For what? The "cause"? The cause of what? Thieving, hypocrisy and parasitism?

What a parcel of nauseating rogues.

"Soon may they expire, unblest wi' resurrection!"
Burns

Chris,

"....Worst PM in my lifetime."

You ain't seen nothing yet!

(A cardboard cutout might be electable, but it's difficult to sustain a ruse - and Uncle Rupert can only slather so many front pages)

Poirot yes P Jack too yes.
But lets first know we lost.
And yes Abbott won.
Many, so very many do not yet know what that brings to us all, what policy,s and actions.
But we lost.
Our ride down the lift well without the lift, was a truth we must not ignore.
Do we wish to just take the voters who in time will leave Abbott.
Do we by our failure to understand and act on out loss help the growth in vote wasting smaller party,s.
Reform but remove too, the thought building on our own faults ,targeting others before our self, is folly.
Rudd will leave, and he should, Shorten will come, and he should, we will be proud of our leader.
And he will lead us to new hights, but lets too bury our dead only after righting our wrongs.

Shorten? Good luck.

I reckon Abbott will have him covered easily, practically and intellectually.

Chris,

I think Shorten is bright, far cleverer than Abbot in my opinion, but he let his ego and ambition take over as happens to many of those within a sniff of leadership.
He is tainted now as being the knife man.
Just for interest I have no leanings to either side of politics, just an unbiased observer. Possibly the best stance for anyone involved in the humanities, student or otherwise.

SD

Belly,
Trust you are in better health now.

Bit surprised that you support the views of Poirot and Pjack. Labors loss was its own undoing and not just partly either.

It can be put down to total mismanagement and incompetence by all concerned. The lies, spin and deceit from, government was unprecedented.

Am surprised that 34% voted Labor.

Hope Labor rebuilds with some practical candidates and not continue with ex union hacks and political staffers. You need people with real life experience. You know what I mean, people with common sense.

Pjerk and other left whingers are all making the same blunder that Labor has been making for the past 4 years. They are all assuming that Abbott and his team are incompetent and far right wing.

The election result has shown that they are far more disciplined, consultative and competent than either Dudd or Juliar. The new government is likely to be more boring than the 3 ring circus we have had over the last 6 years, but will implement reasoned and rational policies with no poll driven thought bubbles.

The boats will be stopped, the budget will be returned to surplus, the carbon, mining and FBT taxes will be removed, the green and red tape will be shredded and business will once again be able to flourish.

See the near hate?
Belly,
Most of us could see it hence the outcome of the election. It's time for you lot to let the decent people get on with their lives & stop sabotaging everything.

As opposed to the Right whingers when they could not accept Labor won a minority government, one that Abbott would have sold his Grandmother including a Carbon Tax to obtain (according to Tony Windsor).

The LNP will have better luck dealing with a RW biased Senate than a Left, but it will be interesting to see what weird agreements are forged to get legislation through the Senate. The LNP might try sooner rather than later before the new Senate comes into play next year.

I just hope that we don't see a bias towards big business (the already rich) with less taxes (Clive Palmer effect) while the most poorly paid are ignored. Although to give Clive his due his website does mention better pay for all those traditionally low paid workers such as nurses as well as a rise for aged pensioners. I hope the Palmer Party pushes that agenda at least.

Abbott has already proposed aged care workers payrise to be stopped because we can't afford it. Yet we can afford to give away mining tax and tax breaks for the rich. Not looking forward to the way ahead but can only hope Abbott means it when he says he will govern for all.

I can't see it, but to be fair everyone deserves a chance to perform and perhaps in one or two years there will be more information for critique or praise.

No doubt a lot of people are going to hate Abbott for what must be done but the finger points squarly at Rudd and what's her name. We're 220 years in debt, china is buying up our land and everything else, Newman is despised by some after cutting and slashing. 1/2 the PS has to go [ and they knew this when they joined - free rides are over long ago ].You can't live on a credit card and Labors aim was scorched earth policy [ make it impossible to reverse things by setting poicies in concrete ]People are going to suffer and suffer badly, especially seniors - Hard cheddar, I'm not bitter about it because in the long term, this country is going to pull itself up by bootstraps, tell the UN to shove it, use our coal to generate cheap power, kick alternative agenda disidents out'a my country, dump climate change stupid policies and put the money into safe guards against what's coming.

Public service cuts made in the wrong places will make no difference and in fact will impact greatly on service delivery. No good implementing new programs without the people to deliver them directly to the public.

Cuts to the public service are rarely supervised by governments because there is this belief that governments should not interfere too directly in the bureaucracy. There is some merit in that traditional stance, but there are disadvantages. It will come as no shock that public servants often tell politicians what they want to hear and briefings rarely outline mistakes and blunders, but serve to update policy aims and stages of implementation. A good brief will also include risks.

I hope Abbott insists that cuts to the APS start with the fat at the top which has grown disproportionately over the years and attends to bracket creep where jobs which were once done, for example, at the APS5/6 level sare now EL1/2s in many cases.

This is well recognised within the APS privately. Also cutting middle class welfare will reduce the burden of administration.

Dear Pelly,

I stated earlier that Mr Abbott's big test will be
to adapt his combative style to the serious
business of government. It's one thing to be in
Opposition and focus on the failings of the
government (repeatedly) and quite another having
to solve the same problems and govern the country.

Mr Abbott has already ditched an earlier boast that
he'd return the budget to surplus in his first term.
Abolishing the carbon tax and other pledges may well
face challenges in the Senate.

Mr Abbott did state that there will be "qualitative
differences in the way things happen in Canberra."
What these differences will be remains to be seen.

It also remains to be seen whether the ALP having
"saved the furniture" by holding many safe seats
and preserving future leadership talent like
Chris Bowen, Tony Burke, Kate Ellis, Tanya Plibersek,
et al, whether they will actually
listen to these people and re-group and reform the
Party or continue with their previous traditional
factional mistakes.

I am sorry but the truth remains.
We lost that election.
On the night Gillard took the knife to her strong partner.
Try to not see it but know it still.
Every single thing after that night would not have taken place with out her actions knifing my party!
We saw Tony Abbott, a man who for the most part was never liked as much as his opponent, win.
We saw better policy,s fall.
But after we sweep the floor and understand our position, we will become much the better for it.
SCREAM ABUSE AT ME!
But I truly believe an awakening is coming, to voters and from within Abbott,s party.
This man is no Liberal.
And the effort in cleaning our own bed first may bring a stunning reversal!
A one term Liberal government.
Abbott has a honey moon period coming, some of his policy,s will be good.
He will confront things Labor has failed to, and in our next term in office we will not change.
Lets not forget Tasmania and South Australia will fall under a Liberal government soon, SA may survive Tassy is lost and hopeless, Greens give our government the smell of death there.

Belly,

I think you are suffering from amnesia, I remember you being delighted with the ascension of Juliar. Rudd was knifed because he was a liability and Labor's popularity was plummeting. She was then knifed when labor reached record lows.

The problem was not the leaders, the problem was bad policies driven by publicity, combined with poor management, little to no consultation with those affected, and a litany of broken promises and backflips.

"..... a litany of broken promises and backflips."

The Coalition didn't even wait until government before unleashing it's first broken promise and/or backflip.

I remember it like it was just the other day....

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/how-malcolm-turnbull-was-ambushed-by-the-coalitions-own-internet-policy-20130906-2t9bd.html

Mckenzies wallabies have lost their first three tests and Australia lost the election.
Den 71

Hasbeen,
I suspect and fear that we will see a double dissolution within three months. Abbott will brook no interference in his governance and the slightest suggestion of any rejection of policy by any opposition will trigger a massive backlash.
I have just returned from Bamaga, Seisia, Umagico, New Mapoon and Injinoo (yesterday)where a million dollar six bedroom brand new high-set Queenslander style house rents (to the locals)for %25 of a social security payment and half the population drive their boats around in v8 turbo diesel Toyotss with fuel at $2.35 a litre while the other half have the luxury of council owned verciles for their private use.
I can assure you that the taxpayer cannot afford to continue this type of "Cargo Cult" policy and as soon as Abbott moves to close of the largesse and is blocked by these social do gooders we will get a DD quick smart.

chrisgaff1000,
I have drawn attention to these goings-on for a long time but no-one seems to want to accept reality. It'll be interesting to me personally how much attention your revelations will draw. Too bad you didn't draw attention to the goings-on of the Labor orientated public servants in such communities at massive expense to the taxpayer after all, they're the ones who caused this dreadful situation & are in no mood to stop the bandwagon.

Shadow Minister how do I talk to you?
Recently cutting my input here at other hands I am far from the only poster who has trouble with you.
And far from the only one to have left, just because of you.
At the time of Rudd's knifing, like almost all Australians, I knew little about behind the scenes movement.
My first post? both had me saying she would govern well.
*And that I would never trust her*
See I am guilty!
Of loving my party, enough in fact to launch in to shouted demands!
For her to be returned to her rats nest.
And for reform.
Now for you, even now you most probably believe that post, and you have backing here!
OLO is a Conservative sight.
But too I thank you!
Your every post, your refusal to even consider reviewing your sides faults, reminds me of why I love the ALP.
This last three years, our defeat, folk like you, the haters at polling booths.
Abbott,s government.
*All ensure Labors rise will be strong and based firmly on reform and ability to remember the people who once filled the chair they sit in.
And the people who put them all there*.
SM you have helped me grow, so different are we that I once would not share a street with you.
Now I gloat with joy at closely observing you,a laugh a minute!

*All ensure Labors rise will be strong and based firmly on reform and ability to remember the people who once filled the chair they sit in.
Belly,
There's absolutely no doubt that Labor will return as soon as the coffers are full again & then the incompetence & squandering will repeat itself as it always does.
They'll again resort to integrity-devoid scare tactics on the young & vulnerable. I spoke with an indigenous young feller yesterday & he said there was a Facebook thing going around stating that if Abbott got in the kids would have to go to school all day saturday as well. If I can get hold of that I'll post it here for all to see.
Belly you are a loyal supporter of a party that no longer exists. I fell sorry for you rather than anything else.

Poirot,

That was pretty feeble, as it was never policy.

Belly,

Your recollection is a little different from mine. You said she would govern well and be loved. The issue of trust came later as she sank in the polls.

As for the reform you mention, it has been promised for years, and now with Rudd being blamed for everything, there is a good chance that reform will be ignored.

'OLO is a Conservative sight'

just happens that Saturday revealed that the majority of the Australian public voted conservative.

Notice? I am yet again ignoring rather than combat some.
I need to back up my stand and thoughts ,with those on my side.
After three years of flogging my own party and its wrongs I remain convinced it was right to do so.
Saturday saw folk full of hate and miss trust, honestly held views, shout Labor are all criminals, at me until my health forced me home.
5 weeks of that.
Even face to face death threats, on returning the challenge one then called the police!
Yet I know, for sure and certain, my party is on the way back.
But too, that every politician ever born fails to under stand how these myths grow, if not over and again killed off by us, in word and action.
Settle in relax Abbott has his upper house troubles but once Kevin leaves Parliament Labor will no longer be something Abbott/Murdock/Rienheart can take for granted.
Enjoy the ride it will be heavenly.
PS back in harness at my branch tonight with 5 new members!

Belly,

I hope your party comes good as they are a necessary part of our system.
From my limited point of view they became confused and lost their identity to some degree when they moved toward the centre of the political scene, unfortunately pushing the coalition further to the right in the process.
The coalition does now have a definite identity, like it or not and this is something Labor needs to do, pretty hard to hang your hat on exactly what they stand for right now.
I have no leanings one way or another but just observe the process of ego and ambition in play, sadly that is what most of it comes down to in our political scene. Not much else.

Take it easy.

SD

Belly, "Saturday saw folk full of hate and miss trust, honestly held views, shout Labor are all criminals, at me until my health forced me home"

Reasonable complaints given Julia Whatshername's form in protecting creeps.

What did you say in return to them? No-one believes 'It is all the MSM's fault' and had the desired censorship of the Gillard/Greens government applied few would ever have found out.

The fraudsters are bad enough, but ordinary folk have a right to be damned annoyed at the careerists in Parliament who always put their ambition first and wouldn't know *bleep* from clay anyhow.

Shouldn't the very well paid PM and ministers who said they represented ordinary folk have resigned in shame at the time? Now the same politicians either get another go or live very well forever and retired early on the golden handshakes paid for by the taxpayers.

What about Labor's treacherous sidekicks, the Greens Protest Party? Fat lot they did to 'keep the B's honest'. Although the Greens also stole that catchy phrase from Don Chipp and the Democrats.

Individual,
Can I tell you that the very successful Labor campaign in the communities where have just been was carried out by members of the Labor dominated teachers union, dressed in bright red uniforms with red caps who previously had door-knocked every home in the communities especially where there were school children and told them unmitigated lies about what the LNP would do to their schools, their staffs and their children's education.
On election day they conversed with the voters as they arrived in the native tongue denigrating the LNP workers and mocking them.
I listened to a day long tirade of abuse and intimidation without letting the Labor party workers know until voting had closed. Even then they thought it was a joke.
The community waste will be addressed have no fear about that.

chrisgaff1000,
Yep, I can concur with that. The tactics used by some ALP supporters was outright criminal & I think there needs to be some looking into this. Another story I heard today was that they're all going to lose their jobs if they voted for the Coalition.

>>Another story I heard today was that they're all going to lose their jobs if they voted for the Coalition.<<

Doesn't sound like a very good story to me. Proper fantasy should have wizards and orcs and elves and talking animals, or at the very least unnecessarily graphic rape scenes and some dragons.

Faceless Labor ne'er-do-wells being able to psychically detect LNP voters from the results of a secret ballot is an interesting idea for a modern fantasy/sci-fi story - but one more suited to being the screenplay for an independent student film than a big-budget HBO fantasy series or a best-selling novel. And you'd still have to dress it up a bit. Those who fail the psychic probing of the faceless Labor ne'er-do-wells lose their jobs, they should be dropped into a tank of mutant piranhas and enraged hippopotamuses: much more dramatic.

Cheers,

Tony

Doesn't sound like a very good story to me.
Tony Lavis,
I suppose it doesn't to you but believe me it is as realistic & scary a threat to people who believe in ghosts & all sorts of other supernatural things & combined they do make up a sizeable number of votes. They're numerous enough for ALP cronies to callously exploit that lack of reasoning & it worked.

So Belly, do you still think Rudd did the right thing by dragging out the election, or, do you now agree that he should have called a snap election.

I somehow dout reform will save the labor party, as I think they need to reinvent themselves and distance themselves from the unions, as they still believe that despite the signs of tough times ahead, they were he'll bent on protecting wokers rights at any cost, many of which (rights) were gained through unprecedented and unlikely to be repeated boom times.

They simply must accept that what goes up, must also come down when demand drops.

No point being highly paid, while sufferingb rom under employment.

Belly - It appears you are up to your old tricks of attacking posters then retreating off the thread.

Still awaiting your reply at URL.

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=6009&page=1

Again I will remind you of something you stated QUOTE "I come here for intellectual stimulation, not the very opposite." It is evident lately you fail to practice what you preach.

Philip S I have no trouble in excepting your views of me.
Let me express mine about you.
I have no intention of swimming in an open septic tank.

This thread asks a question.
Here and else ware I have pointed out the Senate position is not acceptable to most, if not all of us.
But too that any election held may not change the results/not fix the Senate/not see other than lost seats for Abbott.
So lets not hold our breath, we may have to muddle along for a full term.
UNLESS both sides get together talk and negotiate and?
Bypass the loony tunes upper house.

I have no intention of swimming in an open septic tank.
Belly,
Isn't that what the ALP has morphed into since Goaf Whitlam ? Judging by the ALP scare tactics in the recent election they made a septic tank appear sterile.

Belly,

The time to the next election depends largely on the senate. TA has an active agenda and while being prepared to negotiate and compromise with the senate to some extent, is perfectly prepared to go DD in the event of obstructionism.

I already hear noises that some labor MPs are considering letting the carbon tax repeal go through.

Belly - To quote you
"Notice? I am yet again ignoring rather than combat some.
I need to back up my stand and thoughts ,with those on my side."

1st since when has this forum become a combat arena?

2nd you are ignoring people, that is your right BUT further on you say "I need to back up my stand and thoughts ,with those on my side." so what you are saying is you will ignore anyone who does not agree or has a contrary opinion as to yours. That seems a silly tactic.

Again I will remind you of something you stated QUOTE "I come here for intellectual stimulation, not the very opposite." HOW can you have what you say you come here for if you only communicate with people who have the same ideas as you.

Lastly you again resort to sarcasm here "I have no intention of swimming in an open septic tank." it appears you swim in that sewer a lot.

Folks,
Labor will pass the repeal laws. It does not have the wherewithall to fight another election. Labor wasted enormous financial resources on flying in booth workers to fill positions everywhere, uniforming them and accommodating them. They need at least three years to recover.
CG1000

Shaggy dog brilliant and so true.
The need to dump Labor, enforced in part by its self.
The quite horrible Murdock mischief making.
All took our eyes away from Tiny Tony.
Having received our lecture from spin doc, about who won.
And his trifling matter, ignoring the Senate out come, we see a truly elected, yes spin doc, will of the people stuff, hung out to dry by a house of fools.
Remember Mr Negative!
On SOME issues before that house of fools we will! what fun!
DD? longer he waits the less likely little Tony will have the jam tart to call one.

Belly - It is now evident you have no reply to the people you attack or try to use sarcasm on in place of "intellectual stimulation" as you put it.

What you sow so shall you reap.

Sorry about that.
In another thread I actualy answered the bloke.
I am forced to wounder just how free are we to say as we wish?
I blame myself.
See I truly think the current Senate position[ compare it with NSW upper house] is of true concern to us all.
I know and understand *I should not post in the closed mind threads of that author*.
But too *STRONGLY* hold the view we have , while concerned about methods of micro party,s, no right to even talk, about some ones *POLICY,S BARRING HIM HER* from holding a seat.
In the end do I say as I think?
Well know this I am unconcerned at what some think of me, for holding firm to my values and opinions.

Belly - Quote "In another thread I actualy answered the bloke."
Does anyone think this is a informed comment?
To quote Belly
Philip S sorry my fault, I continue to forget you lack any intellectual ability's.
Will stay away, means, writing slowly, its your sand box .

Quote "I am forced to wounder" The word is wonder.
P.S actualy is spelt actually.

Had my say on this subject and thank the author for that chance.
As it appears only I poses the wit to understand nothing is gained by further confrontation, without my thoughts and opinions being changed in any way I with draw for OLO sake.

.....DD? longer he waits the less likely little Tony will have the jam tart to call one.

Short memory there hey Belly.

Rudd had at least two opportunities that I recall.

Rechtub just what are you on about?
What has bought you to think my memory is slipping.
And what has Rudd,s gutless act in not going to a DD election got to do with this.
My comments clearly adess the lunacy of the newly elected Senate.
Mate *even you* should understand well maybe not!
I am saying clearly Abbott has his mandate.
That, get help if you do not understand.
We should not let the senate *stop any elected* government passing its legislation.
Gets harder from here, I state here this view.
Abbott if he intends a DD [it would be welcome if it got rid of all the small party,s]
Must confront this.
Such an election if not held during his peak in voters likes or dislikes could both see his house of Reps numbers fall.
And Senate elect Mickey mouse and the seven dwarfs.
he must pick his time.
And that doing that, if a threat exists is his problem and he may not find a window to? call one in safely.
Find for me any anti Abbott stuff, you no doubt will but it is in my view a truth.
The Senate results scream for action on behalf of mainstream Australia, under the current system you could be elected on a Butchers for road killed snags ticket!

A DD Senate election actually favors small parties and independents. A quota is reduced from 14.28% to 7.69%. This assures many one senator at least.

I don´t see a double dissolution as likely as the repeal of the carbon tax would probably go through the new senate when it finally sits. I see no reason for the Libs/Nats to go to an earlier election, as the normal practice is to do the unpopular things in the first year of government, and then hope people have forgotten about it by the time the election rolls around.
If Tony Abbott becomes really unpopular, he would be probably be replaced by Turnbull. I actually don´t think it will come to that. The scenario I see as most likely, is that Australia will enter a recession during the next 3 years, not because of anything either the present government does, or what the previous government did, but simply because under normal circumstances the business cycle goes from boom to bust every 5 to 7 years. My guess is that how the Libs/Nat government responds to this will determine the result of the next election in 3 years time. If we don´t have a recession, and the Libs/Nat government does not decide to self implode, then they will be in government for at least 6 years. If we do have a recession as I expect then the labour government will have some chance of getting back in.

warmair,
You are right about a recession. Most think we missed it before but really all we did was put it off.
As the heat dies in the resources sector, unemployment rises and employment decreases, as interest rates fall to ridiculous levels and the dollar goes up, as wage demands get out of hand again and people move further in living beyond their means the whole card house is teetering and ready to fall.
How stupid is it to enter into a low doc mortgage with interest rates at the bottom and no guarantee of being able to service the loan when interest rates go up.
When they lose their homes I will be the last to offer sympathy for self inflicted wounds.

Paul,

A DD would not favour the greens as there would be less preferences flowing, (less left overs) from the major parties flowing to the greens and other minor parties. The greens would drop to about 6 seats and the other minors to 8 and labor and the libs would pick up the rest.