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The Forum > General Discussion > UK election...when trends are bucked.

UK election...when trends are bucked.

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The UK election outcome contained some interesting aspects.

Let's look at 2 seats and see if we can work it out?

The trend for Labour has been down...down....down... and Labor has done nothing but increase debt, and a litany of other disastrous downward plunging decisions....

On his first day of work, the new incoming chief secretary of the U.K. treasury, David Law, was greeted with the following note from his outgoing predecessor:

“Dear Chief Secretary, I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money left.”

BLACKBURN. (JACK STRAW)

Straws vote for the past few elections.

1992 26,663 Labour
1997 23,141
2001 21,808
2005 17,562

2010 21,571 !

The loss of conservative votes after 1992 do not seem to have gone anywhere else.. looks more like they just didn't vote to me.

Now let's look at another contentious seat

"BARKING and DAGENHAM" (MARGARET HODGE)

1997 21,698
2001 15,302
2005 13,826

2010 24,628 !

Any sleuths out there who can shed light on these surprising outcomes ?

Bear in mind...the national mood was 'anti labour(Brown?)' as the results for 2010 show.
Posted by ALGOREisRICH, Thursday, 20 May 2010 6:14:35 AM
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I haven't quite figured out why you have asked this question, ALGOREisRICH, but for the moment I'll take it at face value.

In summary, there were no "surprises" here, at all.

Blackburn:

First, your data for 1997 is incorrect. The figure is 26,141, not 23,141 as stated.

So the major movement in support for Jack Straw would seem to be confined to 2001 onwards.

The main point to note is that the UK has a "first past the post" system, so the most important measurement is that of the "majority" over the second-placed candidate. You will see that Straw's majority has been extremely consistent in the last three elections, between eight and ten thousand votes. So nothing noteworthy there.

Barking:

The Westminster constituency is Barking; Barking and Dagenham is the Local Council.

Margaret Hodge has been the Member for Barking since 1994.

The apparent low vote of 15,302 in 2001 conceals the fact that this represented 61% of those who voted.

The even lower vote of 2005 can be attributed to the appearance of a high-profile British National Party candidate, who took votes from both Labour and Conservative. Her majority, though, was still close to 9,000, which was 30% of the total turnout.

In 2010 the BNP candidate was the even higher profile Nick Griffin. For whatever reason, an additional 15,000 voters turned out on this occasion (61.4% of the electorate, up from 50.1%), and two thirds of these extra voters supported Hodge, while the BNP support declined.

Hope this helps.

I'd be genuinely interested to know why you thought it significant enough to comment upon.
Posted by Pericles, Thursday, 20 May 2010 9:19:02 AM
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Thankyou Pericles for that helpful analysis and minor factual correction. Sorry the figure was slips for 1997 on Straw.. many figures..back and forth.. u know how it goes.

Why interested ? I'm interested in the whole UK election and associated social trends.

I understand that in Barking, high powered use was made of the Democrat Blue state digital election methods and some rather frantic ringing around of pensioners in a kind of scare campaign took place.

The demographic changes over the past decade might explain the increased voter turnout in 2010 and could do with some more in depth scrutiny.

This might help

http://action.hopenothate.org.uk/page/s/baileybd

Don't you just love that video which 'begins' from the point of Bailey lashing out at the poor (naturally innocent) young Asian bloke ? :)
Those BNP scum are truly 'nazi scum' using thug tactics to impose their fascist views on the people of Barking..specially the immigrants...or so UAF would have everyone believe.

This might be more helpful though in showing the prelude to him lashing out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dELv_bYZTL4

But even that vid does not show the full story.

The 2 accounts are clear evidence of how political/activist groups edit material to suit their agenda.

The FULL version shows the 3 Asians approaching Bailey in a menacing way.. him backing off and using open hands to fairly gently push them away from being in his face... but in the interests of balance and truth..he is asking them "any robbers among you" as they approach.
(which in those areas might be a fair question for a white bloke)
But even THAT does not tell the full story.
The precedent was a violent attack on Griffin earlier which caused him to abort his public campaign speech.

So..many layers to find the real truth eh.

Needless to say the tactics of UAF/HopeNotHate (funded and supported by all the major parties) as shown in this video are using the same level of vile imbalance in the rest of their public activism in the attempt to thwart the BNP from gaining ground.
Posted by ALGOREisRICH, Thursday, 20 May 2010 11:53:58 AM
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Thought it might be about race, ALGOREisRICH.

Not at all about "the whole UK election and associated social trends."

Why the attempt at deceit? Just be bold, come straight out with it.

Incidentally, I happen to know the area, and the people, very well. I still have a couple of relatives there. Just thought I'd mention it.

>>The demographic changes over the past decade might explain the increased voter turnout in 2010 and could do with some more in depth scrutiny<<

The boundary changes since the last election consisted of the inclusion of three wards. According to The Economist...

"Once a solid Labour bastion of the white working class, Barking has become increasingly marginal, especially after boundary changes brought it three wards where the BNP is strong"

http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16015534

Curious, then, that the BNP vote declined by 2.1%.

>>The 2 accounts are clear evidence of how political/activist groups edit material to suit their agenda<<

That is indeed a staggering insight. It might take me a while to process its full import.

Nah, just kidding. But that was a seriously naive thing for you to say, wasn't it.

So, what's the takeaway from all this?

You like the BNP. You think they have been hard done by in Barking. You are concerned that there are people over there who will band together in an attempt to keep these troglodytes out of power.

Incidentally, the Barking and Dagenham Council election was held on the same day as the General Election. Labour candidates won in every Ward, and now occupy all 51 seats on the Council.

Now, what was your question?

Ah yes.

>>Any sleuths out there who can shed light on these surprising outcomes ?<<

Lots of light now, I hope.

Still no surprises, though.
Posted by Pericles, Thursday, 20 May 2010 2:21:00 PM
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Factual correction Pericles

The BNP vote in Barking increased.

2005 4,916

2010 6,620 An increase of 30%

Overall results: (UK)

2005 BNP polled 192,745
2010 BNP polled 563,743 over 200% increase. (I must be missing something ? help if I am..I'm using wiki so who knows.)

how pray tell did you get your figure of a 2.1% decline for either Barking or UK as a whole ?

As to it being about 'race' ? I am aware of 3 issues which are of concern to residents of Barking irrespective of race.. they are:

Employment (lack thereof)
Housing (access to.. availiability of)
Immigration (probably more a concern to the white working class who are feeling marginalized over the above 2 issues)

FORD PLANT CLOSURE. 50,000 Barking/Dagenham workers were employed at the ford assembly plant until, due to incessant Union/communist attacks on productivity and competitiveness.. the inevitable happened..the plant surcumbed to the more efficient, lower cost labor in Europe and other countries and.. it shut down.
Now it employs approx 2000 people in Diesel engine assembly.

48,000 unemployed in one foul swoop..and you think it's about race ?
I suggest that any racial resentment is a by product and a minor component of mass unemployement.
Union 'heroes' caused a 3 month stoppage in 1971-ish and it virtually killed an already sick company. Did they care ? not on your life!
Did Labor look after the Unionists ? 18,000,000 pounds to "Unite" union for 'training of representatives' (eeeuwwww) speaks volumes in recent weeks and the Treasury official said to the incoming minister "No more money left" gee..I wonder why ?
Get over yourself on race Pericles there is much more to it than that.
Posted by ALGOREisRICH, Thursday, 20 May 2010 3:16:45 PM
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Pericles: << Why the attempt at deceit? >>

I asked a very similar question just now in another thread. Perhaps BOAZ_David/Polycarp/no_THIS_ismeBD/ALGOREisRICH just doesn't know how to be honest.
Posted by CJ Morgan, Thursday, 20 May 2010 7:54:39 PM
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