Joschka Fischer, former German foreign minister penned an analysis of Russia for today's Guardian newspaper. In my view his analysis is right on the money.

Fischer's column contains one startling, one might almost say jarring, statement:

"…the decisive strategic threat facing Russia…comes from the Islamic south…"

See:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/30/russia.eu

There is much more to Fischer's column than that statement. Fischer also points to the strategic challenge facing Russia from growing Chinese power.

Turning to the US, Fischer has this to say:

"…America's neo-conservatives have wasted a large part of their country's power and moral authority in an unnecessary war in Iraq, weakening the only global western power."

Absolutely!

Fischer points out that:

"China, India, Brazil, Russia, and the Persian Gulf today are the world economy's new growth centers and will soon be centers of power …In view of these realities, the threat of exclusion from the G8 doesn't really feel earth shattering to Russia."

Yep. And the fact that five of the "G7" do not understand this reality says it all about has-been powers. The two exceptions, who do understand that expulsion from the G8 is a meaningless gesture, are Japan and the US.

Fischer is equally unsparing about Europe:

"Europe's disunity and impotence underline this image of a West that has partially lost touch with geo-political realities. "

Precisely!

However the fact that Fischer, a 60's radical, a "DECISIVE strategic threat" emanating from Russia's ISLAMIC south

What is the nature of this threat? Militarily, Russia's "Islamic south" is picayune. It cannot be a military threat. So what is it?

What is the nature of the threat that Fischer perceives?

A threat that is so severe it is labelled "decisive. A threat that compares to the threat of having a new superpower on your borders.

Anybody got any ideas?

For a backgrounder on Fischer see:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joschka_Fischer

An interesting perspective. Fischer's is altogether a very balanced and thoughtful article.

Which makes me wonder why, stevenlmeyer, you have chosen to emote over only two words from it - "decisive" and "Islamic".

>>However the fact that Fischer, a 60's radical, a "DECISIVE strategic threat" emanating from Russia's ISLAMIC south... What is the nature of the threat that Fischer perceives? A threat that is so severe it is labelled "decisive.<<

From where I stand, it would appear that you are indulging in some mozzie-bashing by proxy, a tactic that is characteristic of a Boaz thread.

First raise the imagined spectre of militant Islam... "a 'DECISIVE strategic threat' emanating from Russia's ISLAMIC south" (your emphases, by the way) then stand back to watch the rabble-rousers congregate.

Tell me I am wrong. Then tell me exactly what you did hope to achieve by selecting this single aspect from the entirety of the article.

But before you do, briefly revisit the piece in question.

The full sentence upon which you focus is:

"Neither the west nor Nato constitutes the decisive strategic threat facing Russia, which comes from the Islamic south and from the Far East, in particular the emerging superpower, China.""

Consider for a moment the motives behind your selection - and emphasis - from this sentence of "the Islamic south". Which, as I pointed out, in your hands suddenly becomes "Russia's ISLAMIC south".

You admit that:

>>Militarily, Russia's "Islamic south" is picayune. It cannot be a military threat. So what is it?<<

This is nothing more nor less than an invitation to the frothing-at-the-mouth brigade to indulge in a frenzied bout of fear and loathing.

Isn't it.

Have a great, if fearful, day.

Pericles,

I am resigned to the fact that you and those like you will dismiss any warning about the dangers of accommodating Islam as "mozzie-bashing." Your knee-jerk reaction indicates you are as much stuck in an intellectual rut as Boaz and I am no miracle worker who can bring sight to those who are wilfully blind.

I pointed to that there was much more to Fischer's article that the statement I quoted – including the fact that growing Chinese strength also posed a decisive strategic threat to Russia.

Nonetheless the statement I quoted is surprising coming from Fischer who, as the article makes clear, is a proponent of (Muslim) Turkey's accession to the EU.

Note also that Europe too has a Muslim south. Does North Africa pose a "decisive strategic threat" to Europe? If not then why does Russia's Islamic south pose a "decisive strategic threat" to that country?

These are Fischer's words and they are interesting precisely because they are NOT words I expected to see in anything he would write.

So just what is the nature of the threat Fischer discerns?

For the rest I agree that this is an exceptionally well balanced summary of the state of play as regards Russia. I also like Fischer's trenchant critique of the US and Europe. I can only hope that the next American Secretary of State (ASS?) display the type of political nous that Fischer seems to have in abundance. As he was sacked from his foreign minister's job perhaps the Americans can offer him the post.

I have to thank Steven, at least for alerting us to the excellent article from Joschka Fischer (who, for those who don't know, was arguably the most successful Green politician in history).

However, Pericles is correct: Steven's shameless distortion of Fischer's words and meaning by selective quotation is an indication of his usual purpose here. That is, to promore fear and loathing of Islam and Muslims.

Just another troll, I'm afraid - but at least Fischer's article is worth reading.

Would the term 'separatists' be more of an issue than 'Islam'?.

Let's see CJ Morgan,

You accuse me of misrepresentation.

I was careful to state that there was more to the article than Fischer's view that Russia's "Islamic south" (Fischer's words) posed a "decisive strategic threat" (again, Fischer's words). I also provided a link so that readers could peruse Fischer's article for themselves.

So I have misrepresented him how?

CJ Morgan, I think we both have a fair idea of who Joshcka Fischer is and where he stands on most issues. The article I linked is well-written and I agree with almost everything he says.

However, except for Fischer's reference to a "decisive strategic threat" to Russia emanating from the "Islamic south" there is nothing in the article that should cause us any SURPRISE. The words I highlighted are noteworthy simply because most people who have followed Fischer's career would not have expected him to write anything of the sort.

That was why I emphasised them.

I suggest you accuse me of misrepresentation SOLELY because you are uncomfortable with the fact that someone of Fischer's stature and position should express such a view.

But he did express that view and he used very strong language.

You and Pericles have both evaded the question.

What is nature of the "decisive strategic threat" that, according to Fischer, Russia's "Islamic south" poses?

StG

Fischer, a man who chooses his words carefully, used "Islamic." Furthermore, most of the "Islamic south," is already separate from Russia. Khazakstan, Uzbekistan, etc are already independent countries.

I cannot see how, say, Chechnya, can pose a "decisive strategic threat.