European observers have faulted Georgia in this month's Caucasus conflict, saying it made elaborate plans to seize South Ossetia, according to the German news magazine Der Spiegel on Saturday.
OSCE military observers in the Caucasus had described preparations by Georgia to move into South Ossetia.
The onslaught had begun before Russian armoured vehicles entered a southbound tunnel under the Caucasus Mountains to South Ossetia.
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1427854.php/Spiegel_OSCE_observers_fault_Georgians_in_conflict

Dear Steven,

I've read the Guardian article you made reference to.

It was a balanced analysis with recommendations
of what should be done to curb Russia's inherant
expansionist potential.

Russia under Putin appears to protect Russian "interests"
in Russian inhabited areas. Be it Eastern Ukraine,
pockets of Georgia, Belorus, and possibly the Baltic
States. No less different than US appears to protect
democratic interests in its sphere of influence.
After all the US has set the example in Iraq, Iran,
Vietnam, Korea. Russia appears to exercise its apparent
right in a similar manner.

As far as the "Islamic" threat to Russia is concerned.
Until concrete evidence is presented there appears no
other threat than some Islamic Republics of the former
Soviet Union seeking their independence by whatever
means possible.

Does nobody see China moving to secure its own interests in the face of peak oil with the tacit agreement of its tacit long-term ally right across this region?

Not the Army of Second Sons, but the Army of Only Sons.

Some questions.

What has been a demographic consequence of the one child policy of China?

Could one be an imbalance between the sexes in the progeny of a nation of over 1000 million people?

What is the size of the male 20 year old cohort of China's population these days?

What is the size of the female 20 year old cohort?

What is the size of any imbalance?

Historically what tends to happen when such imbalances occur?

But what would provoke the Middle Kingdom to so most uncharacteristic an expansionist military adventure?

A nuclear armed incipient Islamic super-state throwing its weight around in a way threatening of the continuity of oil supplies upon which the Middle Kingdom sees itself having become to be dependent, by any chance?

A mozzie bull in a china shop?

So sorry. Not acceptable.

Joschka Fischer seems to be saying to the EU "be ready to forcefully confront a soon to be isolated and threatened Russian bear in order that it accept the wisdom of co-operation with its major customer".

Dear Steven,

You aroused my curiousity on the subject of
Russia and Islam. And so I trawled
the web and came across the book by
Gordon M. Hahn, "Russia's Islamic Threat."
Yale University Press, 2007.
It was awarded the "Most outstanding Academic
work" for 2007 by Choice Magazine.

Reading a review of it confirmed the point
that you made in your opening post, and I quote:

"Hahn examines several little known ethnic
republics in Russia. Connecting the dots to
reveal an expanding Islamist network that
represents much more than a nuisance to
Russian power..."

It sounds like a very interesting book, one
worth persuing.

I'm going to try to get hold of a copy.

Thank you for that Foxy. I shall buy a copy of the book myself.

Perhaps there is some substance to Fischer's claim that the "Islamic south" poses a "decisive strategic threat" to Russia after all.

The 'decisive' nature of any 'Islamic' threat.. if anything, would be as follows:

1/ Turkey manages to join the EU.
2/ The EU has implmented a number of meausures to protect Islam from criticism.
3/ Nato is manouvering to 'outflank' Russia by seeking former Soviet bloc nations to join it.
4/ If Turkey did join the EU, the influence of an increasingly "Islamist" nation in cahoots with a 'spineless' EU/Nato could indeed represent a threat to Russia.

As to the 'decisiveness' ? I'm not sure what it mean't by that. Deciding what? I don't think anyone would be foolish enough to try to attack Russia....so.. I'm also a bit puzzled about what would be desisive here?

Perhaps this?
Russia:
-Population 140,000,000
-Russian 80% various others make the rest.
-Religion:
a)Russian Orthodox 15-20%
b)Muslim 10-15%
c)"Christians" ? 2%

Yes..its quite a long string to pull.. So I'll pull it no further.

They are the facts and some potentialities.

Not enough information is available to me at this point to say any more.