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The Forum > General Discussion > Israel, Iran, Hamas, Hizbullah - some reality checks

Israel, Iran, Hamas, Hizbullah - some reality checks

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Steven, I was aware of most of the historical points you made.
it is just that the situation became critical after 1946.
I don't think anyone has an answer and if one was enforced it would
open endless cans of worms, eg as a possible Celtic refugee from
Bath in the UK perhaps I could start demanding that these Saxon and
Norman interlopers should surrender their lands to me.
After all we Celts have been expelled for as long as the Jews were
expelled from Jerusalem.

You said:
Nor am I going to debate the legitimacy or otherwise of a Jewish
State in what most Muslims consider to be Dar-ul-Islam.
unquote
That is really the point I am making, there is no point in that
debate, it just goes around and around.
Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 17 June 2008 1:54:02 PM
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Stevenlmeyer,

1. As has already been put, Iran need not launch missiles to do massive damage to Israel and others. Merely by regularly opening silos and fueling up missiles, Iran can bring all Israel to a complete stop, destroying the economy. It is also true Iran could allow one of it's terrorist proxies to “hand deliver” nuclear material. Finally, you should read a little about Ahmedinejhad and Khamanei. They believe in the hidden imam, the Mehdi, and his return to the earth. The problem is, his return will be on a day of judgment quite like an apocalypse. Beginning to feel a little uneasy yet? You should be. They believe in the literal truth of his existence and may feel compelled to bring about his early return using a nuclear conflagration. If that sounds nuts to you believe me I share your wonder. But when Ahmedinejhad was mayor of Tehran he had the streets of Tehran widened so the Mehdi could make a more triumphal return. He believes the Mehdi hides down a well awaiting his return. Further they have seen fit to drape their shttab3 missiles in a banner reading "wipe Israel off the planet" in a recent military parade. These are their nuclear capable missiles by the way. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2003/sep/23/iran
See "the Iran threat" by Alireza Jafarzadeh
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alireza_Jafarzadeh

2. Hamas will not ever be able to destroy Israel militarily. All they need do is cast themselves in the role as the protector and benefactor of Palestinians. Hamas knows its only way to power is politically. Whats really scary is that some in the west actually want to put power in the hands of these madmen. Hamas do real damage to Israel every day. The sorts of violence that in this country would be front page news for six months is everyday for the people of Israel.

TBC
Posted by Paul.L, Tuesday, 17 June 2008 2:42:03 PM
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"I am NOT going to enter into the debate as to who, legally, morally, ethically, etc owns Israel. Nor am I going to debate the legitimacy or otherwise of a Jewish State in what most Muslims consider to be Dar-ul-Islam."

Posted by stevenlmeyer, Tuesday, 17 June 2008 12:35:56 PM

But ya won't discuss the topic either?.
Posted by StG, Tuesday, 17 June 2008 2:44:02 PM
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Cont,

3. Quite right, Hizbullah are riding high on their perceived victory over Israel in the 2006 war. To suggest it was a pyrrhic victory would be to entirely understate the matter. But such is the mentality of the Islamo-fascists. It is, however, well known that Iran and Syria are the masters of Hezbollah and the reason that further provocation has not been forthcoming is not easily divinable.

Foxy,

Lowenstein is usually full of nonsense but I can agree with all but the last section of the last sentence you have quoted.

“...Sooner or later, Israel and the Palestinians will have to meet face-to-face, listen to each other's grievances and negotiate with honesty. Only then - and on the condition that both Israel and the Palestinian state achieve safety and security - will this conflict be resolved. Neither side has a monopoly on suffering …”

I would add that it is within the Palestinians power to end the occupation by ceasing the relentless attacks upon Israel and acknowledging Israel right to exist. If they could do that I could find it possible to support them in their quest for a country of their own. I could support them in their attempts to have settlements removed etc. But not whilst they insist upon blowing themselves up on school buses and in restaurants and carrying out other wanton acts of terror upon the innocents of the conflict, including their own people.

EasyTimes,

The NPP have only 9 seats in the current Knesset. That’s less than the number of Arab members (12), and no one suggests that the Arab members define the Knesset. Your follow on suggestions are therefore entirely moot.

Israel is not dying as an ideology, that’s absolute nonsense, What is happening is that the Palestinians are breeding, as most of the muslim world is, at a rate which far outstrips that of Israel. The average age of a Palestinian is 15 years old.

However Israel is only vulnerable politically (in the absence of Iranian nukes) and such is likely to remain the case for a long time to come.
Posted by Paul.L, Tuesday, 17 June 2008 2:45:16 PM
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StG,

I see no point in "discussing" the topic either.

BAZZ,

I guess we agree then.

Paul.L

I am well aware that Ahmadinejad is crazy. I would prefer it if he did not have nukes. But he has given no indication that he is prepared to see Iran nuked. I do not think that he, or the mullahs, are willing to see Iran vaporised and Shia Islam disappear.

My guess is that Iran can be deterred just as the Soviet Union was.

You describe a game of nuclear chicken in which silos are uncovered and missiles fuelled. Most combat missiles today are solid-fuel. They do not have to be fuelled up in order to be launched.

Iranian missiles, like Israeli ones, are likely to be mounted on mobile launchers rather than stuck in silos.

Of course a nuclear armed Iran could occasionally adopt an aggressive posture in order to test the nerves of the Israelis. The Soviets did that in the cold war. But after you have done it two or three times without actually firing your missiles people adjust.

The big thing is to have a second strike capability which Israel has thanks to its mobile launchers. It looks as if Israel will soon have a submarine based deterrent as well.

What about a hand "delivered missile?"

Well that may be the worst thing the Muslims could do. A single nuke would leave Israel's nuclear strike capabilities intact but the country acting like a wounded predator. I think Israel's neighbours understand that under these circumstances Israel will shoot first and ask questions later. Bang goes the Middle-East's oil.

UNDER THAT SCENARIO BETTER INVEST IN A BICYCLE. YOU CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AFFORD PETROL.

A minor victory for Israel. The EU has agreed to deepen ties with Israel abeit it not to the extent the Israelis wanted. See:

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL15520405

The EU did this in the face of Arab opposition.
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Tuesday, 17 June 2008 3:50:18 PM
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Steve – Calling Israel legitimate is a fallacy and you know it! Its like saying Hitler driving the Jews out of Germany is legitimate!

What can be said is that Israel is going to continue to exist and that’s a thing the Muslims are going to have to accept!

You seem to purpose status quo as the solution to problems there. The facts are that the only solution Israel can purpose is to with draw to the pre 1967 borders or even the original borders. It’s better to make an effort at peace rather then no effort. I am sure with the UN help peace can be maintained in some sort of manner.

I never realized that Israel almost used nukes! If what you are saying is true! The Jews are as mad as the Muslims! I guess it makes sense as to why the Americans are very one sided with there views taking into account the Jewish lobby as well.

Paul L – The seats it controls give it the potential to veto. Israeli politics is made up of many small parties! And a group of them form a coalition to form government. With so many different ideologies it makes it next to impossible to make big decision seeing that if one member of the coalition walks away the ruling party breaks down. Its perpetual compromise! You could compare it to the Liberals, Nationals, Greens, Democrats and One nation forming a government and trying to get along.

Israel is dying the Arabs who live in Israle are increasing the Jewish population is almost static and all it enemies are getting more and more powerful! More and more Jews are leaving Israel and only leaving the fanatics behind. Its laws which discriminate against anyone who is not Jewish well only make the problems worse by discouraging anyone who is not of Jewish decent to live there.

Poor desperate people with revenge on their mind and a with a religion as crazy as the one they fight against can wait forever!

They have nothing more to lose!

"All aboard the Titanic!!"
Posted by EasyTimes, Tuesday, 17 June 2008 4:07:56 PM
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