1. If Iran gets nukes it will use them to attach Israel

Would that be the same Iran that scrambled to sign a cease-fire with Iraq when Saddam's NON-NUCLEAR rockets started falling on Tehran during the Iran-Iraq war?

Does anyone truly believe the cowardly and CORRUPT mullahs in Iran are willing to be vaporised?

It is one thing to send gullible young Muslims filled with religious zeal to be martyrs. It is quite another to put yourself in the firing line.

On a more practical note, Iran is the centre of Shia Islam. The destruction of Iran would be the end of the Shia. I don't see the mullahs giving the Sunni that satisfaction.

Bottom line:

Do I want to see a nuclear Iran?

No. The danger of a nuclear Iran is that it would spark a nuclear arms race with Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Might Iran launch a nuclear attack in Israel?

It is always possible but unlikely.

And, yes, I know all about Ahmadinejad's threats. I'm sure he would destroy Israel if he could. But it seems highly unlikely he would be prepared to see Iran destroyed in the process.

Most likely he will continue to arm Hamas and Hizbullah.

2. Hamas wants to destroy Israel

Hamas wants to destroy Israel the way I want to win the lottery. We can all dream a little.

In the end I suspect that Hamas will be pragmatic. Unfortunately I think many people, mainly Palestinians, are going to die before that happens. In keeping with Palestinian leadership tradition, Hamas is stupid.

And, yes, I do think Israel needs to mount a more robust response to the Palestinian rocket attacks. That could include a partial re-occupation of Gaza.

But no settlements.

3. Hizbullah will attack Israel again

Perhaps.

However they apparently have more arms and better training than in 2006. So what is staying their hand?

Maybe they don't want to risk the myth of their invincibility.

Dear Steven,

Have you read - Antony Loewenstein's book, "My Israel Question?"
The issues are so complicated - and you begin to lose heart that there will ever be resolution and peace.

Loewenstein's book affirms, " On one side of the conflict, in the face of suicide bombings and international criticism over its military aggression, Israel asserts the right of the Jewish state to exist in Palestine. On the other, the Palestinian people struggle, some peacefully, some violently, for survival. Far beyond Israel's
disputed borders, in New York, and Washington, London, and Paris, Sydney and Melbourne, the conflict is replayed in passionate public debate by Holocaust survivors, Zionist organisations, Arab advocates, the anti-war movement, newspaper columnists , presidents and prime ministers and politicians and activists of all shades..."

We can argue backwards and forwards about this subject - without resolving much at all. I tend to agree with Loewenstein's summation
and I quote:

"...Sooner or later, Israel and the Palestinians will have to meet face-to-face, listen to each other's grievances and negotiate with honesty. Only then - and on the condition that both Israel and the Palestinian state achieve safety and security - will this conflict be resolved. Neither side has a monopoly on suffering, but only one party has the power to end the occupation and to recognise that Israel and Palestine are historically destined to share the same homeland."

Do you agree with his point of view?

Foxy said:

"We can argue backwards and forwards about this subject - without resolving much at all."

Not only can we, we have :)

Keith.. adamant opponent of Israels current position.
Logic.. persuasive advocate for Israel.

with many in between.

Given your statement Foxy, and the many and varied opinions held and posted here on OLO where none of us really stands to gain or lose anything but an argument.... perhaps we can appreciate that those in the firing line tend to have a rather more focused view on things.

If we begin our disucussion with "But look at what side A did there"

It will be just back and forth with each side picking out events which suit their argumentative purpose.

For this reason, I tend to be rather 'sledgehammer'ish in my posts.
We cannot pick a 'good guy' really.. because it doesn't count or matter in the end (practically speaking).. what matters or counts, is what always has.. "power".. which has always over-ridden moral concerns.

I think the only thing restraining Israel from doing a clean sweep and total ethnic cleansing (something they have the power but not the will to do) is our global interconnectedness and the instant replay of all that happens.

If we look back at the various conflicts of the world, in the long run the losers havn't done all that bad. Look at Germany, Japan.. Russia..
They all look like winners now.

I saw a Toyota Corolla model called 'Corolla conquest' :) and I said.. yep.. you sure did, not militarily, but economically.

Many of us seem to cling to the idea that the Palestinians MUST have the land back that they occupied. (which was a result of previous invasions by Arabs)
History is rarely so kind.

Foxy,

I am NOT going to enter into a discussion about the rights and wrongs of Israel vs Arabs. I am not so vane as to believe I have the power to change anyone's mind on this issue. Instead I shall confine myself to what I believe is a factual analysis of the situation.

I think there is no chance in the foreseeable future of Palestinians and Israelis reaching any sort of amicable settlement.

--No Palestinian leader can give up on a right of return to pre-1967 Israel. If a Palestinian leader were to sign an agreement that left out a right of return it would be back on the agenda and a source of renewed conflict within a day.

--No Israeli government can accede to a right of return. If it tried it would be voted out of office.

--The wider Muslim world will never concede the legitimacy of a Jewish enclave within what they regard as Dar-ul-Islam. Israel will always be viewed as an alien excrescence that must be expunged when the opportunity presents itself. They will continue to try and use the Palestinians to achieve this.

Under these circumstances the sentiment expressed by Lowenstein is simply a pious hope.

Do I agree with his sentiment?

Yes in the sense that I agree with many motherhood statements.

But I do not expect to see it actually happen.

The very best the Israelis and Palestinians can hope for is a pragmatic solution. The Palestinians decide to get on with the business of living their lives and building their nation. They agree to prevent their land being used as a platform to attack Israel. In return the Israelis vacate most of the land they occupied in 1967. Both side prepare for the next conflict and hope it won’t happen for a long time.

In the longer run I do not know whether Israel can survive as a Jewish enclave in an increasingly Muslim dominated Eurabia.

Dear Steven,

Thank you for responding to my question.

I appreciate your views - and respect your wish not to take this thread into emotive territory.

I agree with Loewenstein, "it is time for a radical rethinking of the conflict" - but as you point out, it's not something that will happen anytime soon.

1 If Iran gets nukes it has nukes forever!

Ahmadinejad will not lead Iran forever somebody even worse may come into power there and thus up the ante!

If Iran gets nukes this may provoke Israel to strike Iran! This will put everything back 30 years and reinforce Arab hatred of Israel as well as course chaos for Aussie troops in the Middle East!

Would Israel succeed in a strike on Iran? Israel had better hope it has a lot of technical support from the United States! I am sure Iran has already planned an air defence for it nuke facilities that could defend itself from the likes of the Israeli air force. Unlike Iraq in 1982!

2. Hamas does want to destroy Israel but firing a couple of ww2 earer rockets is hardly going to do it.

Israel can destroy Hamas by bring peace to the Middle East.

This can be done by fixing the amazingly ridiculous political system that is in Israel! First they need to stop Nazi like groups such as shas from vetoing any attempt to withdraw from occupied lands or dismantle illegal Jewish settlements.

The Israeli political system is awash with religious fanatics! If these Jews had been born Muslims in Saudi Arabia they would be fighting along side Osama bin Laden or blowing themselves up for Allah in suicide attacks. Take this lot for example http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Religious_Party

The NPP actually believe that the Jewish messiah is going to come if the occupy more of Palestine! This is there movement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gush_Emunim how the hell will they ever make peace with Palestine if this lot have say in it